Finance Commons^™

Information Loss In Volatility Measurement With Flat Price Trading, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A model of financial asset price determination is proposed that incorporates flat trading features into an efficient price process. The model involves the superposition of a Brownian semimartingale process for the effcient price and a Bernoulli process that determines the extent of price trading. The approach is related to sticky price modeling and the Calvo pricing mechanism in macroeconomic dynamics. A limit theory for the conventional realized volatility (RV) measure of integrated volatility is developed. The results show that RV is still consistent but has an inflated asymptotic variance that depends on the probability of flat trading. Estimated quarticity is …

Macroeconomic Determinants Of Stock Market Development In Sample African Economies, Ehab Ayoub

Theses and Dissertations

This research paper studies the relationship between macroeconomic determinants as independent variables and different measures of stock market development as dependent variables across selected emerging economies in Africa for the period of 2002 to 2021, with a quarterly frequency using time series analysis. The independent variables used are Core Inflation, Deposit Rate, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), FX Rate against USD, Domestic Credit, Gross Domestic Product (Real GDP), Exports, Imports, External Debt, and Foreign Reserves. We use these variables as our main determinants of measuring economic growth. With regards to stock market development, we use four proxy measures as our benchmark, …

The Zero-Leverage Policy And Family Firms, Pedram Fardnia, Maher Kooli, Sonal Kumar

Finance Journal Articles

Purpose – The purpose of the study is to examine the zero-leverage (ZL) phenomenon in family and non-family firms.

Design/methodology/approach – The authors consider three hypotheses and empirically test them using a sample of the largest US firms over the 2001–2016 period.

Findings – The authors find that, on average, 19.20% of family firms have zero debt vs 10.42% for non-family firms. The authors also find that family firms strategically choose to be ZL to maintain financial flexibility for future investments and exercise control over the decision-making process, consistent with the hypotheses of financial flexibility and control considerations. However, non-family …

Bubble Testing Under Polynomial Trends, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops the asymptotic theory of the least squares estimator of the autoregressive (AR) coefficient in an AR(1) regression with intercept when data is generated from a polynomial trend model in different forms. It is shown that the commonly used right-tailed unit root tests tend to favor the explosive alternative. A new procedure, which implements the right-tailed unit root tests in an AR(2) regression, is proposed. It is shown that when the data generating process has a polynomial trend, the test statistics based on the new procedure cannot find evidence of explosiveness. Whereas, when the data generating process is …

Impact Of Geographical Diversification And Limited Attention On Private Equity Fund Returns, Victor Ong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This article analyzes the effect of geographical diversification on global private equity (PE) fund returns. We find that there is a negative correlation between geographical diversification and PE fund returns. To establish the causality between geographical diversification and PE fund returns, we employ an instrumental variable analysis where the instrument used is the stock market capitalization of the host country where the PE fund is based. Our results apply to Net IRR, TVPI and DPI as dependent variables used to proxy for PE fund returns in the main regression model. A one standard deviation increase in geographical diversification results in …

Assessing The Odds Of A Us Recession, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

In this commentary, SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) Principal Researcher Thomas Lam and SKBI Director SMU Professor of Finance (Practice) Dave Fernandez offer their perspectives on the current multifaceted and highly charged US recession debate. While America is currently not in a downturn, the near-term odds of one have edged up, according to models based on key monthly and weekly indicators.

Chinese Yuan Interest Rate Swap Yields, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun

WCBT Working Papers

This paper models the dynamics of Chinese yuan (CNY)–denominated long-term interest rate swap yields. The financial sector plays a vital role in the Chinese economy, which has grown rapidly in the past several decades. Going forward, interest rate swaps are likely to have an important role in the Chinese financial system. This paper shows that the short-term interest rate exerts a decisive influence on the long-term swap yield after controlling for various macrofinancial variables, such as inflation or core inflation, the growth of industrial production, percent change in the equity price index, and the percentage change in the CNY exchange …

Application Of Sentiment Analysis And Machine Learning Techniques To Predict Daily Cryptocurrency Price Returns, Edward Wu

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the effects of social media sentiment relating to Bitcoin on the daily price returns of Bitcoin and other popular cryptocurrencies by utilizing sentiment analysis and machine learning techniques to predict daily price returns. Many investors think that social media sentiment affects cryptocurrency prices. However, the results of this paper find that social media sentiment relating to Bitcoin does not add significant predictive value to forecasting daily price returns for each of the six cryptocurrencies used for analysis and that machine learning models that do not assume linearity between the current day price return and previous daily price …

Did Demonetization Have A Bigger Impact On Ppis (Prepaid Payment Instruments) Or Mobile Banking In India?, Ansh Vora

CMC Senior Theses

On November 8, 2016, Narendra Modi, prime minister of India, tele-advertised the entire nation and announced that India's highest value banknotes, the 500 and 1000 rupee “Rs” notes would be demonetized and taken out of circulation, effective midnight. Modi stated that this is an effort to reduce the large economy of black money, transition India into a digital economy, abolish funding of terrorist groups and illicit circulation of counterfeit notes. In this study, I choose to analyze the impact of demonetization on two digital payment methods - Prepaid Payment Instruments, “PPI” and Mobile Banking. The data used in this study …

Evaluating The Degree Of Using Islamic Financing Instruments Based On The Concept Of Indebtedness And Its Developmental Importance (A Case Study Of Palestine Islamic Banks 2013-2019), Azmi Awad

Journal of the Arab American University مجلة الجامعة العربية الامريكية للبحوث

This study aimed to shed light on the Islamic financing instruments based on the concept of Indebtedness and indicate the degree of the use of those instruments in the Islamic banks during 2013-2019. This could be achieved by indicating the size and degree of concentration of the use of those instruments and the fairness of their distribution to various economic sectors on the one hand, and explaining the developmental importance of those financing instruments in the economy on the other hand. The researcher used the descriptive analytical approach and the comparative approach. To test the validity of the hypotheses, Pearson …

Lessons Learned: Kevin Stiroh, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Kevin Stiroh was head of the Financial Sector Analysis Supervision Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 (GFC). At the FRBNY, Stiroh was a leader in the design of the “stress test” for the banking system, the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (SCAP). In the aftermath of the GFC, members of the FRBNY, including Stiroh, drafted a report on systemic risk and bank supervision, laying out lessons learned from the crisis and their recommendations. In February 2021, Stiroh transitioned from the FRBNY to a leadership position with the Federal Reserve Board …

Lessons Learned: Gaurav Vasisht, Sandra Ward

Journal of Financial Crises

Gaurav Vasisht served as assistant counsel, banking and financial services, to the governor of New York during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 (GFC). In his role, Vasisht set the governor’s agenda for banking and financial policy and oversaw the regulatory and legislative priorities of the state banking and insurance departments. Vasisht played a pivotal role in developing and drafting consumer protection legislation, particularly as it related to housing foreclosures at the time of the crisis. This Lessons Learned is based on an interview with Vasisht that occurred on September 27, 2019.

Lessons Learned: Veerathai Santiprabhob, Maryann Haggerty

Journal of Financial Crises

Veerathai Santiprabhob was the governor of the Bank of Thailand from 2015 to 2020, a period that included the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Earlier in his career, he was an economist at the International Monetary Fund. At the time of the 1997–1998 Asian Financial Crisis, he returned to his home country to take a position at the Ministry of Finance. There, he was involved with the government response to that financial crisis. From 2000 to 2015, he held private-sector finance jobs before going to lead the Bank of Thailand. This Lessons Learned is based on an interview with Santiprabhob …

Lessons Learned: Erik Sirri, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Erik Sirri served as director of the Division of Trading and Markets at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) from 2006 to 2009. In his post, he was responsible for matters relating to the regulation of stock and option exchanges, national securities associations, brokers-dealers, clearing agencies, transfer agents, and credit rating agencies. Before joining the SEC in 1996, he was an assistant professor of finance at the Harvard Business School from 1989 to 1995. Sirri served as the SEC’s chief economist until 1999, before returning to academia. He is currently a professor of finance at Babson College. His research …

Lessons Learned: Claudia Sahm, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Claudia Sahm was a principal economist in the Division of Research and Statistics of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2007 to 2017 and section chief for the Consumer & Community Development section in the Division of Consumer and Community Affairs from 2017 to 2019. Her work focused on macro forecasting; she also researched household behavior and responses to fiscal stimulus. While at the Fed, she proposed the Sahm Rule, a gauge to call the start of a recession, based on an average of the unemployment rate. The rule is part of Sahm’s work on the …

Lessons Learned: Hiroshi Nakaso, Maryann Haggerty

Journal of Financial Crises

Hiroshi Nakaso joined the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in 1978, rising to deputy governor in 2013. He was instrumental in addressing Japan’s domestic crisis of 1997 and its response to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). He retired from the bank in 2018 and has since served as chairman of the Daiwa Institute of Research in Tokyo. This Lessons Learned summary is based on a November 2021 interview with Nakaso

Lessons Learned: Deborah Perelmuter, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Deborah Perelmuter has spent more than three decades with the Federal Reserve System. In 2008, as senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) and co-head of Capital Markets Analysis and Trading (CMAT) within the Markets Group, she was tasked with setting up the operational details of the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF). The TSLF auctioned Treasury securities to primary dealers in exchange for less liquid collateral to provide liquidity to those firms during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009. Perelmuter became senior financial stability adviser within the office of the director in the FRBNY’s Research …

Lessons Learned: Mike Leahy, Yasemin Sim Esmen

Journal of Financial Crises

Mike Leahy was associate director at the Federal Reserve Board’s Division of International Finance between 2008 and 2010. He was instrumental in establishing swap lines with foreign central banks and reviewed and reported on excess reserve balances and required interest payments to depository institutions. This Lessons Learned is based on a phone interview with Leahy on October 22, 2020.

Lessons Learned: Patrick Honohan, Maryann Haggerty

Journal of Financial Crises

Patrick Honohan, an economist, was governor of the Central Bank of Ireland and a member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) from September 2009 until November 2015. Early in his tenure, he led a team that investigated the causes of the Irish banking crisis that broke out in 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis. Resolving the problems of bank failure and over-indebtedness that emerged in that crisis dominated his term of office. In late 2010, Ireland had to request financial assistance from the “troika” of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission, and the European …

Lessons Learned: Andrew Gray, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Andrew Gray joined the FDIC in 2007, after having been majority director of communications for the US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs and press secretary for US Senator Richard C. Shelby (R–AL). Gray’s initial project was a campaign to mark the 75th anniversary of the creation of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC); his role evolved into running crisis communications as the FDIC stepped in during several bank failures triggered by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and conducted 489 bank resolutions during 2008–2013. After the crisis, the FDIC also assumed new responsibilities over the winding down of …

Venezuela: Reserve Requirements, Gfc, Corey N. Runkel

Journal of Financial Crises

Leading up to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV) sought to tamp down inflation by raising its interest rate target and by raising the marginal reserve requirement for banks, which it had introduced in 2006. By late 2008, the GFC began to hit Venezuelan banks and the country’s public oil producer (PDVSA). Widespread deposit withdrawals squeezed banks and pushed the interbank lending rate to 28%. The BCV responded in December 2008 by lowering the marginal reserve requirement, applicable to deposits above 90 billion bolívars (USD 4.2 million), from 30% to 27% of deposits. It held …

Thailand: Reserve Requirements, Afc, Ezekiel Vergara, Corey N. Runkel

Journal of Financial Crises

Following years of growth, the Thai economy began showing confidence-busting signs in 1996, including a liquidity crunch. In May 1997, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) announced that it would expand the list of short-term assets that banks and finance companies could use to satisfy the BOT’s liquidity reserve requirement, including obligations of the Financial Institution Development Fund (FIDF), which provided liquidity support to illiquid financial institutions. In the summer of 1997, the BOT suspended the operations of 58 finance companies and floated the Thai baht (THB), unleashing the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC). Tight liquidity conditions continued and, in September 1997, …

Russia: Reserve Requirements, Gfc, Benjamin Hoffner

Journal of Financial Crises

In August 2008, Russian banks and financial markets experienced significant capital outflows after Russia invaded neighboring Georgia. The collapse of Lehman Brothers on September 15 led to further outflows and a 25% drop in Russia’s main stock index. On September 17, regulators halted stock-market trading. Later that day, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) announced cuts to the three required reserve ratios (RRRs) it imposed on commercial banks—based on their ruble liabilities to foreign banks, ruble liabilities to individuals, and other liabilities—by 400 basis points, effective September 18, in an effort to promote banking sector liquidity. The CBR …

Peru: Reserve Requirements, Gfc, Sean Fulmer, Bailey Decker

Journal of Financial Crises

Peru experienced the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 (GFC) in two distinct phases. First, starting in the summer of 2007, record capital inflows to the Peru banking sector contributed to an overheating economy. The Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP) responded in September 2007 by removing reserve requirements on long-term external credit to promote long-term, rather than short-term, capital inflows. In February 2008, for similar reasons, it began to raise the ordinary minimum reserve requirement on bank liabilities and implemented new marginal reserve requirements on increases in those liabilities. Second, when the collapse of the US investment bank Lehman …

Russia: Reserve Requirements, 1998, Benjamin Hoffner

Journal of Financial Crises

During the 1998 ruble crisis, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) relied on reserve requirements (RR) to bring stability to the ruble’s exchange rate corridor and, over time, to inject liquidity into the frozen domestic banking system. First, in February 1998, the CBR unified the RR ratio on ruble and foreign currency liabilities to facilitate ruble financing. Second, after the devaluation of the ruble in August, the CBR lowered the RR ratio to provide liquidity to the banking system. Third, the CBR revised the computation of the RR ratio to provide relief to banks in an effort to …

Malaysia: Reserve Requirements, Afc, Bailey Decker

Journal of Financial Crises

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) unpegged the ringgit in July 1997, days after Thailand floated the baht. Ringgit depreciation and adverse investor sentiment worsened, contributing to a domestic liquidity shortage and capital flight. Malaysia experienced market instability in the early months of 1998, particularly pressure on its exchange rate, foreign currency reserves, and interest rates. At the same time, disruptions in the domestic money market and loan intermediation process caused an increase in lending rates, which resulted in debt servicing problems and weakened financial stability. To facilitate lending and productive economic activity, BNM twice lowered the statutory reserve requirement (SRR) at …

India: Reserve Requirements, Gfc, Sharon Nunn, Carey K. Mott

Journal of Financial Crises

As international funding sources dried up during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 (GFC), businesses in India sought funds from domestic financial institutions, straining banks and lifting short-term lending rates. The liquidity pressure, coupled with sharp asset price corrections and rupee depreciation, restricted credit expansion in India. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) responded with a suite of liquidity measures, including cuts to its two reserve requirement ratios, the cash reserve ratio (CRR) and the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR). The RBI cut the CRR over the course of four months from October 2008 to January 2009, lowering the ratio from …

Jamaica: Reserve Requirements, Gfc, Corey N. Runkel

Journal of Financial Crises

In October 2008, the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and liquidity shortages rocked American and European markets, causing investors to exit liquid Jamaican-dollar assets. The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) feared a “disorderly depreciation” in the Jamaican-dollar (JMD) exchange rate to the US dollar (BOJ 2009, 44). In response, the BOJ raised required reserve ratios for cash and other liquid assets, the first increases since 2002. The BOJ raised reserve ratios three times—in December 2008, January 2009, and February 2009—because the central bank could not change its requirements by more than 200 basis points per month. The BOJ raised the requirement for …

Czech Republic: Reserve Requirements, 1997, Benjamin Hoffner

Journal of Financial Crises

In the first quarter of 1997, fiscal and current account deficits in the Czech Republic put pressure on the koruna’s pegged exchange rate as capital flowed out of the domestic economy. Although the Czech National Bank (CNB) committed to tight monetary policy to protect the peg, on April 11, the CNB announced a lowering of the minimum reserve requirement (RR) ratio from 11.5% to 9.5%, effective May 8. The RR ratio (RRR) reduction (RRR) reflected a compromise with the government, which had petitioned the central bank to ease monetary policy. To improve the balance of payments, the government also implemented …

Colombia: Reserve Requirements, Gfc, Natalie Leonard, Bailey Decker

Journal of Financial Crises

On May 6, 2007, the Bank of the Republic (BR), the central bank of Colombia, introduced countercyclical marginal reserve requirements (RRs) on increases in banks’ deposit accounts to constrain leverage and credit risk in the financial system. A month later, the BR also raised the ordinary RR on outstanding deposit balances. The BR kept those requirements in place for more than a year. In June 2008, when the effects of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) began to temper economic and credit growth, the BR eliminated marginal RRs. Also in June 2008, however, the BR raised the ordinary RR on outstanding …