Economic Theory Commons^™

Macroeconomic Determinants Of Stock Market Development In Sample African Economies, Ehab Ayoub

Theses and Dissertations

This research paper studies the relationship between macroeconomic determinants as independent variables and different measures of stock market development as dependent variables across selected emerging economies in Africa for the period of 2002 to 2021, with a quarterly frequency using time series analysis. The independent variables used are Core Inflation, Deposit Rate, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), FX Rate against USD, Domestic Credit, Gross Domestic Product (Real GDP), Exports, Imports, External Debt, and Foreign Reserves. We use these variables as our main determinants of measuring economic growth. With regards to stock market development, we use four proxy measures as our benchmark, …

Choice Flexibility And Long-Run Cooperation, Gabriele Camera, Jaehong Kim, David Rojo Arjona

ESI Working Papers

Understanding how incentives and institutions help scaling up cooperation is important, especially when strategic uncertainty is considerable. Evidence suggests that this is challenging even when full cooperation is theoretically sustainable thanks to indefinite repetition. In a controlled social dilemma experiment, we show that adding partial cooperation choices to the usual binary choice environment can raise cooperation and efficiency. Under suitable incentives, partial cooperation choices enable individuals to cheaply signal their desire to cooperate, reducing strategic uncertainty. The insight is that richer choice sets can form the basis of a language meaningful for coordinating on cooperation.

Failed Secular Revolutions: Religious Belief, Competition, And Extremism, Jean-Paul Carvalho, Jared Rubin, Michael Sacks

ESI Working Papers

All advanced economies have undergone secular revolutions in which religious belief and institutions have been subordinated to secular forms of authority. There are, however, numerous examples of failed secular transitions. To understand these failures, we present a religious club model with endogenous entry and cultural transmission of religious beliefs. A spike in the demand for religious belief, due for example to a negative economic shock, induces a new and more extreme organization to enter the religious market and exploit the dissatisfaction of highly religious types with the religious incumbent. The eect is larger where institutional secularization is more advanced, for …

Competing Social Influence In Contested Diffusion: Luther, Erasmus And The Spread Of The Protestant Reformation, Sascha O. Becker, Steven Pfaff, Yuan Hsiao, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

The spread of radical institutional change does not often result from one-sided pro-innovation influence; countervailing influence networks in support of the status quo can suppress adoption. We develop a model of multiple and competing network diffusion. To apply the contested-diffusion model to real data, we look at the contest between Martin Luther and Desiderius Erasmus, the two most influential intellectuals of early 16th-century Central Europe. Whereas Luther championed a radical reform of the Western Church that broke with Rome, Erasmus opposed him, stressing the unity of the Church. In the early phase of the Reformation, these two figures utilized influence …

An Experimental Test Of Algorithmic Dismissals, Brice Corgnet

ESI Working Papers

We design a laboratory experiment in which a human or an algorithm decides which of two workers to dismiss. The algorithm automatically dismisses the least productive worker whereas human bosses have full discretion over their decisions. Using performance metrics and questionnaires, we find that fired workers react more negatively to human than to algorithmic decisions in a broad range of tasks. We show that spitefulness exacerbated this negative reaction. Our findings suggest algorithms could help tame negative reactions to dismissals.

The Paycheck Protection Program's Effect On Real Estate Prices, Someswar Amujala

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the relationship between the Paycheck Protec- tion Program (PPP) and real estate price increases. The Paycheck Protection Program was established by the Small Business Association in 2020 to pro- vide forgivable loans to businesses to aid with potential losses from COVID- 19 impacts. I leverage zip code level data across the United States and a fixed effects panel data model to quantitatively measure the PPP’s influence on housing and rental prices. I find a positive and significant relationship between the number of PPP loans disbursed and housing and rental rates. Specifically, a 1% change in the number …

So It Goes: Hauntology, Lost Futures, And Mac Miller, Ryan Hiemenz

Capstone Showcase

Hauntology is a relatively new concept born out of the current state of late capitalism, wherein it has become increasingly common for new releases of popular culture, art, and media to appease the societal desire to return to the past. First coined by Jacques Derrida in his book Specters of Marx, the term “Hauntology” was used to describe the phenomenon of the “death” of communism and how the capitalist powers that “killed” it essentially made the idea of communism immortal. They made it a specter, and ghosts cannot die. This concept was then altered by the late Mark Fisher, …

Endogenous Business Cycles And Economic Policy, Peter Skott

Economics Department Working Paper Series

This paper examines the dynamics of Keynesian models that incorporate feedback effects from the labor market to income distribution, in- vestment, aggregate demand and output. A baseline version of the model can generate endogenous growth cycles, but cumulative divergence and economic collapse also become possible for plausible parameter values. Extensions of the model that include monetary and Öscal policy show greater robustness: the local instability of the stationary point leads to limit cycles (rather than complete collapse), even when large, destabilizing changes are made to parameters describing the private sector. The robustness of the general approach is reinforced by the …

Endogenous Political Legitimacy: The Tudor Roots Of England’S Constitutional Governance, Avner Greif, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

This paper highlights the importance of endogenous changes in the foundations of legitimacy for political regimes. Specifically, it highlights the central role of legitimacy changes in the rise of constitutional monarchy in England. It first highlights the limitations of the consensus view regarding this transition, which claims that Parliament’s military power enabled it to force constitutional monarchy on the Crown after 1688. It then turns to define legitimacy and briefly elaborates a theoretical framework enabling a historical study of this unobservable variable. The third and primary section substantiates that the low-legitimacy, post-Reformation Tudor monarchs of the 16th century promoted Parliament …

Alternative Approaches To Labor Values Andprices Of Production: Theory And Evidence, Deepankar Basu, Athanasios Moraitis

Economics Department Working Paper Series

In this paper, we discuss three approaches to estimating classical prices of production(long run equilibrium prices) in both a circulating capital model and a model that includes capital stock: the Standard Interpretation of Marx’s value theory, the New Interpretation of Marx’s value theory, and the Sraffian approach to prices of production. We add two refinements to both models: (a) allowing for differential wages rates across industries; and(b) taking account of unproductive industries in labor value calculations. We implement(a) the circulating capital models using harmonized input-output data from the World Input Output Database for 37 countries for the period 2000–2014, and …

Decentralizability Of Efficient Allocations With Heterogenous Forecasts, Shurojit Chatterji, Atsushi Kajii

Research Collection School Of Economics

Do price forecasts of rational economic agents need to coincide in perfectly competitive complete markets? To address this question, we define an efficient temporary equilibrium (ETE) within the framework of a two period economy. Although an ETE allocation is intertemporally efficient and is obtained by perfect competition, it can arise without the agents forecasts being completely coordinated on a perfect foresight price. Nevertheless, it entails price forecasts delicately related with each other: we show that regardless of the number of agents, there is a one dimensional set of such Pareto efficient allocations for generic endowments.

A Taxonomy Of Non-Dictatorial Unidimensional Domains, Shurojit Chatterji, Huaxia Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

Non-dictatorial preference domains allow the design of unanimous social choice functions (henceforth, rules) that are non-dictatorial and strategy-proof. On a class of preference domains called unidimensional domains, we show that the unique seconds property characterizes all non-dictatorial domains. Subsequently, we provide an exhaustive classification of all non-dictatorial, unidimensional domains, based on a simple property of two-voter rules called invariance. The domains constituting the classification are semi-single-peaked domains and semi-hybrid domains (introduced here) which are two appropriate weakenings of single-peaked domains and shown to allow strategy-proof rules to depend on non-peak information of voters' preferences; the canonical strategy-proof rules for these …

A Philosophical And Empirical Investigation Into Buddhist Economics, Hannah Doyle

CMC Senior Theses

There is a growing body of literature on Buddhist economics from a philosophical perspective; however, no work to date has sought to empirically validate it as an effective economic theory at a global scale. In my paper, I draw on the long history of Buddhist metaphysics to construct an account of Buddhist ethics and then proceed to derive a set of Buddhist economic principles. I draw on the World Happiness Report’s methodology to quantitatively demonstrate the relationship between Buddhist economic principles and the psychological wellbeing of a country’s citizens, as measured through their own evaluation of their quality of life …

Impact Of Demand For H1b Visas In The Us On The Performance Of Listed Indian Firms, Jayaditya Shekhar Maliye

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the relationship between Indian firm performance and the demand for H1B visas in the US. To test this relationship, a fixed effects model has been used on a panel dataset of 104 Indian firms listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) over the period 2009 to 2021. The results show that an increase in H1B visa demand is negatively and significantly associated with Indian firm performance. These findings suggest that the US’s demand for high skilled labor overseas has consequences for firms in the home country.

Fairness Doesn't Have To Be Egalitarian: Evidence From Bargaining Games, Kevin Wong

Theses and Dissertations

I develop a theoretical model and provide experimental evidence that social norms of fairness play a critical role in determining equilibrium outcomes in bargaining games.

Natural Selection Of Immune And Metabolic Genes Associated With Health In Two Lowland Bolivian Populations, Amanda J. Lea, Angela Garcia, Jesusa Arevalo, Julien F. Ayroles, Kenneth Buetow, Steve W. Cole, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Maguin Gutierrez, Heather M. Highland, Paul L. Hooper, Anne Justice, Thomas Kraft, Kari E. North, Jonathan Stieglitz, Hillard Kaplan, Benjamin C. Trumble, Michael Gurven

ESI Publications

A growing body of work has addressed human adaptations to diverse environments using genomic data, but few studies have connected putatively selected alleles to phenotypes, much less among underrepresented populations such as Amerindians. Studies of natural selection and genotype–phenotype relationships in underrepresented populations hold potential to uncover previously undescribed loci underlying evolutionarily and biomedically relevant traits. Here, we worked with the Tsimane and the Moseten, two Amerindian populations inhabiting the Bolivian lowlands. We focused most intensively on the Tsimane, because long-term anthropological work with this group has shown that they have a high burden of both macro and microparasites, as …

A Classical Model Of Speculative Asset Price Dynamics, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Working Papers

In retrospect, the experimental findings on competitive market behavior called for a revival of the old, classical, view of competition as a collective higgling and bargaining process (as opposed to price-taking behaviors) founded on reservation prices (in place of the utility function). In this paper, we specialize the classical methodology to deal with speculation, an important impediment to price stability. The model involves typical features of a field or lab asset market setup and lends itself to an experimental test of its specific predictions; here we use the model to explain three general stylized facts, well established both empirically and …

Unwilling Gamblers And Loaded Dice: Considering Recession And Crisis As A Natural Effect Of Financial Capitalism, Darlene N. Moorman

The Downtown Review

Under financial capitalism, ordinary people are increasingly becoming 'unwilling gamblers' of a risky and unstable system. This paper explores the social and institutional change behind the neoliberal movement and considers how the politics and policies of neoliberalism have contributed to a certain environment of financial instability. Looking at the changing nature of the economy, the rapid expansion of the financial sector, and the persisting issue of moral hazard underlying risky and speculative behaviors among other items, reveals a financial system in which recessions and crises can be considered a natural, although not inevitable, effect.

Working Paper No. 69, Towards An Evolutionary History Of Gleaning, Stella Burlingame

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry seeks to establish that the act of gleaning can be understood through an evolutionary approach. Because gleaning has been practiced in some form in almost every agricultural system, this inquiry shall consider several different regions and time periods, taking into account the distinct economic and social structures. The segments of history to be explored here range from antiquity, as documented in Scripture, through early modernity, and into the post-modern era.

Working Paper No. 73, “Placing-Out”: Dealing With Vagrant Children In 19th Century America, Josephine Cannistra

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry seeks to convince the reader that motivations of 19th century aid societies were not necessarily rooted in the welfare of vagrant children, but rather in the goals of bolstering American agriculture and creating a new generation of farmers out of children that likely would have otherwise proved a direct social and economic burden. While apprenticeships have a long history in the United States, the joining of apprenticeships and indentured labor formed a 19th century system of placing children out into rural homes as contracted workers. This system, as social movement from above, offered economic benefits to farmers and …

Working Paper No. 67, Insights Into Project Cybersyn, Leah Herrera

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry seeks to establish that back in the 1970s Chile’s “Project Cybersyn” offered novel approaches and specific technologies that appeared to have benefitted capitalism as a system. The Spanish name, SYNCO served as an acronym for Sistema de Información y Control. President Salvador Allende expected that the attributes associated with Project Cybersyn could assist his efforts in implementing his variant of socialism. Cybersyn consisted of a network (Cybernet), software (Cyberstride), computers, a economic simulator known as CHECO, and a control room (Opsroom.) Cybersyn reached an advanced prototype stage; however, its fate was also tied to the interests of the …

Working Paper No. 70, Industrialization, Retail Activities, And The Rise Of American Consumerism, Joseph French

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry seeks to establish that the department store can be viewed as a novel institution that emerged to facilitate an economic relationship between a burgeoning American industrial sector and a new generation of working-class consumers with rising incomes and changing needs. The development of retail in America lagged behind Europe for many decades, until the rapid pace of American industrialization acted as a catalyst for retail to evolve into a modern institution. Alongside the creation of the department store, American cities were taking to the skies, and those who inhabited them would establish a new socio-economic class that was …

Working Paper No. 71, Max Weber: On Religion And Economic Outcomes, Celeste Aiu Taber

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry seeks to establish that early sociologist Max Weber advances a view that religious faith could indeed affect economic outcomes. In his analysis of Reformed faiths, Weber determines that “the calling” inspired by Martin Luther transformed the work ethic of believers, instilling in them a spirit suitable for the advancement of modern capitalism. The Reformed work ethic observed by Weber served as a basis for individual Protestants to accumulate wealth. Weber also considers the developments of religious asceticism among the faiths of Calvinism, Pietism, Methodism, and the Baptist movements. The ascetic character of these religious communities assisted in generating …

Working Paper No. 68, Variables Precipitating The Extermination Of The American Bison, Cameron Winterer

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry seeks to establish that innovations in tanning technology advanced by Europeans in the late 19th century accelerated the destruction of the bison, and subsequently the downfall of bison-reliant indigenous groups of the Great Plains, especially. The North American bison is considered as a crucial natural resource in the plains region of North America. What this inquiry seeks to emphasize is that advancements in technology, coupled with a growing demand for bison hides, contributed to the demise of bison populations. Lastly, this inquiry seeks to examine the near extinction of the plains bison and some of the effects their …

Working Paper No. 72, The 1849 Gold Rush And The Roots Of California’S Economic Development, Matthew Phan

Working Papers in Economics

The Californian Gold Rush, commonly referred to as the “1849 Gold Rush” proved to be a major event which brought significant change to California. This inquiry seeks to establish that this 1849 Gold Rush provided a foundation for a broadly shared prosperity through contributing to the advancement of California’s industry. The first part in this inquiry goes into some detail regarding how the gold rush got initiated, would become a major event for the world. The second part explores what changes the gold rush had brought for California’s industry, economic development, and broadly shared prosperity. The third part explains more …

Working Paper No. 63, On Karl Polanyi And His Conception Of Fascism, Serene Mistkawi

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry seeks to establish that the writings of author Karl Polanyi offered insights into key variables and historical conditions that gave rise to the system we know of as “fascism.” Integral to his insights, Polanyi describes economic conditions attendant for fascism to emerge, with one condition noted as widespread and persistent unemployment. Polanyi stresses that fascism needs to be understood as reactionary, a responding to features integral to classical liberalism. Considering a broad historical context Polanyi teaches us of the political conditions necessary for fascism to emerge and take form as political movements wielding power. He considers conflicts in …

Optimal Patent Licensing—Two Or Three-Part Tariff, Swapnendu Banerjee, Arijit Mukherjee, Sougata Poddar

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

We look into technology transfer by an insider patentee in a spatial duopoly model under three types of licensing contracts—(i) two-part tariff with fixed fee and per-unit royalty, (ii) two-part tariff with fixed fee and ad-valorem royalty and (iii) general three-part tariff with fixed fee, per-unit and ad-valorem royalties. Under two-part tariff contracts, the licenser is better off with the per-unit royalty contract but the general contract does better than the other contracts. In contrast to the existing literature, all three licensing contracts may make the consumers worse-off compared to no licensing, with the lowest consumer surplus achieved under the …

Essay In Bayesian Econometrics, Loren P. Wagner

Theses and Dissertations

Bayesian Econometrics is not as popular as the more common frequentists methods. However, there are problems that Bayesian methods can handle that are not amenable to frequentists methods. The essays to follow show two such applications where Bayesian methods offer solutions to problems posed in widely different areas of economics. In the first essay, the predictive posterior distribution is used to calculate a number of economic quantities that often require extensive work arounds using frequentist methods. In the second essay, it is shown that Bayesian estimation techniques can handle situations wherein an independent variable exhibits no variability, a situation that …

An Analysis Of Uk Swap Yields, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun

WCBT Working Papers

John Maynard Keynes argued that the central bank influences the long-term interest rate through the effect of its policy rate on the short-term interest rate. However, Keynes’s claim was confined to the behavior of the long-term government bond yield. This paper investigates whether Keynes’s claim holds for the yields of spread products and over-the-counter financial derivatives by econometrically modeling the dynamics of the pound sterling–denominated longterm interest rate swap yield. It uses the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) modeling approach to examine the relationship between the month-over-month changes in the short-term swap yield and the month-over-month change in the long-term …

A Comparison Of M&T Bank And Citizens Bank Net Income Changes During The Coronavirus Pandemic, Alex R. Glasier

Applied Economics Theses

The COVID-19 pandemic had a tremendous impact on every aspect of life, particularly within the world of banking & finance. All banks saw sharp drops in their stock prices and net income, but my hypothesis is that larger, more established banks maintained more stability during 2020 than smaller banks. This paper analyzes the income statements and balance sheets of M&T Bank (an older, more well-established bank) and Citizens Bank (a less-established bank) during this difficult time.

The first part of my thesis describes similarities and differences between M&T Bank and Citizens Bank. I explain how these similarities and differences may …