Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Articles 1 - 3 of 3
Full-Text Articles in Economics
The Effect Of Population Aging On Economic Growth, The Labor Force And Productivity, David Powell
The Effect Of Population Aging On Economic Growth, The Labor Force And Productivity, David Powell
David Powell
Population aging is widely assumed to have detrimental effects on economic growth yet there is little empirical evidence about the magnitude of its effects. This paper starts from the observation that many U.S. states have already experienced substantial growth in the size of their older population and much of this growth was predetermined by historical trends in fertility. We use predicted variation in the rate of population aging across U.S. states over the period 1980-2010 to estimate the economic impact of aging on state output per capita. We find that a 10% increase in the fraction of the population ages 60+ decreases …
Disentangling Moral Hazard And Adverse Selection In Private Health Insurance, David Powell, Dana Goldman
Disentangling Moral Hazard And Adverse Selection In Private Health Insurance, David Powell, Dana Goldman
David Powell
Moral hazard and adverse selection create inefficiencies in private health insurance markets and understanding the relative importance of each factor is critical for policy. We use claims data from a large firm which changed health insurance plan options to isolate moral hazard from plan selection. Using an instrumental variables quantile regression approach, we estimate the differential causal impact of each health insurance plan on the entire distribution of medical expenditures. We account for systematic sample attrition during the sample period by conditioning on a nonseparable sample selection adjustment. Our estimates imply that 54% of the additional medical spending …
Estimating Intensive And Extensive Tax Responsiveness: Do Older Workers Respond To Income Taxes?, Abby Alpert, David Powell
Estimating Intensive And Extensive Tax Responsiveness: Do Older Workers Respond To Income Taxes?, Abby Alpert, David Powell
David Powell
This paper studies the impact of income taxes on the labor supply decisions of older individuals. We jointly estimate intensive and extensive margin tax elasticities while addressing selection issues that have previously hindered consistent estimation of labor supply effects. We find large and statistically significant labor force participation tax elasticities for the population ages 62-74. We also estimate statistically significant effects on the intensive margin. Modeling two proposed age-targeted tax reforms, our estimates imply substantial scope for increasing labor force participation rates of older individuals through the tax code.