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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
How To Predict Success In College, Holland Martini
How To Predict Success In College, Holland Martini
Honors Theses
This paper examines the Union College system for determining the academic quality of its applicants. Currently, Union College uses five criteria: high school GPA; rank; strength of schedule; quality of high school; and SAT/ACT scores, if available. Using data on about 1600 students, I examine the predictive power of these criteria for the performance of a student at Union. As a measure of performance I use cumulative GPA at Union and whether or not the student is still enrolled in Spring 2011. I find that the five criteria predict about 25% of the variation in GPA at Union. With the …
The Yield Curve: An Analysis Of Its Forecasts For The Future Of The U.S Economy, Michael Casper
The Yield Curve: An Analysis Of Its Forecasts For The Future Of The U.S Economy, Michael Casper
Honors Theses
Being able to forecast recessions is a useful tool for policymakers and investors alike. Doing so is often a difficult task. Using data on the yield curve spread, the S&P 500, and monetary regimes, this paper investigates the merits of forecasting using the yield curve. This paper found that the yield curve has done a reliable job of forecasting recessions in the past. In addition, both the probit and continuous models used in this study are enhanced by the inclusion of a detrended version of the S&P 500 index and a dummy variable adjusting for the change from the Bretton …