Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

The “Price Puzzle” Under Changing Monetary Policy Regimes, Andre V. Mollick, Adolfo Sachsida

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper examines the “price puzzle”, the rise in the price level following a contractionary monetary policy shock, using monthly US data from 1960 to 2006. Deviating from the standard practice is including commodity prices to “solve the puzzle”, our benchmark VAR contains output, prices, the federal funds rate and M1 money stock, while the augmented VAR includes the 10-year long bond yield. Splitting the sample at October of 1979, we find very contrasting patterns and rationalize them under the changing relationship between money and the funds rate across periods. First, the price puzzle is confined to the pre-Volcker period. …

Economic Analysis Of Working Waterfronts In The United States, Alan W. Hodges, Thomas J. Stevens, Mohammad Rahmani, Robert Swett

Maine Sea Grant Publications

Waterfront communities in the United States, whether rural or urban, recreational or industrialized, have been subject to economic, technological, ecological, and demographic changes that challenge their continued existence or development. The purpose of this study is to document the current status, contribution to regional economies, and future prospects of U.S. coastal communities in order help promote their long‐term economic prosperity. A review of the relevant literature on economic valuation of waterfront and ocean‐related economic activities found that previous studies usually evaluated only one particular economic sector or specific region. The present study attempts to provide a comprehensive evaluation of all …

The Smallest Upper Bound For The Pth Absolute Central Moment Of A Class Of Random Variables, Martin Egozcue, Luis Fuentes García, Wing Keung Wong, Ricardas Zitikis

Martin Egozcue

We establish the smallest upper bound for the p absolute central moment over the class of all random variables with values in a compact interval. Numerical values of the bound are calculated for the first ten integer values of p, and its asymptotic behaviour derived when p tends to infinity. In addition, we establish an analogous bound in the case of all symmetric random variables with values in a compact interval. Such results play a role in a number of areas including actuarial science, economics, finance, operations research, and reliability.

Keynote Address By Sanusi L. Sanusi, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi

Economic and Financial Review

Keynote address by the Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi at the 2012 Executive Seminar jointly organized by the Research and Human Resource Departments of the CBN titled "Macro-Prudential Framework and Financial System Stability in Nigeria".

Macro-Financial Linkages: Implications Or Monetary And Financial System Stability, Frank Chikezie

Economic and Financial Review

This paper is structured into two parts. Section I discuss the structure of the macroeconomy and the financial industry, and the interactions between monetary policy and the financial system. The section also showed how monetary policy could create the condition for financial stability. Section 2, on the other hand, discuss the implications of macro-financial linkages for monetary and financial system stability with emphasis on how the new credit risk transfer mechanism (securitisation and derivatives) had altered the nature of some macro-financial linkages, with considerable policy implications. The section concluded by referring to the new direction of macro-prudential regulation and the …

Regulation And Supervision Of Financial Institutions - The Nigerian Experience, Samuel A. Oni

Economic and Financial Review

This paper focuses on the Nigerian experience, with regulation and supervision of financial institutions and is structured into nine sections. Following the introduction, section two discusses the reasons for FIs regulation and supervision, while section three dwells on the meaning and general principles of banking regulation. Section four Nigeria, while section five addresses the structure, organisation and methodology of FIs supervision with particular reference to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Section six highlights CBN's experience in the regulation and supervision of FIs. In section seven the recent CBN initiatives at strengthening the regulatory architecture are presented. Section eight highlights …

Macro-Prudential Regulation And Effective Monetary Policy, Moses K. Tule

Economic and Financial Review

This paper makes a bold attempt to examine some of the issues within the narrow context of monetary policy. Following the introduction, Section 2 examines some conceptual issues including the institutional framework for monetary and macro-prudential policy. Section 3 discusses the objectives and instruments of monetary and macro-prudential policy including indicators of systemic risk, while Section 4 examines at the interaction of macro-prudential with monetary policy and how this could be enhanced. In Section 5, the experiences of other countries with macro-prudential regulation are presented and lessons drawn for Nigeria. Section 6 concludes the paper and provides insights for an …

Banking Regulation And Risk Management: An Assessment Of The Basel Market Risk Framework, Emmanuel M. Abolo

Economic and Financial Review

The article covers instruments and requirements of bank regulation, bank regulation and risk management, Basel I Capital Accord, Basel II Capital Accord, Basel III Capital Accord, Basel Accord and market risk framework, the proposed changes of the Basel III Accord, Basel Accord and Market Risk Framework. The author concludes by saying that the Basel Framework lays emphasis on the relevance of risk management and tries to link the minimum capital requirements of internationally active banks with the amount of tail risk in their trading books.

Leadership And Corporate Governance: Challenges For Bank Regulators, Lucy Surhyel Newman

Economic and Financial Review

Given likely challenges to obtaining legislative approvals on acceptable behaviour as foundational to good corporate governance practices, this paper recognizes the attendant challenges for bank regulators and recommends measures that Nigerian bank regulators can explore in enhancing their effectiveness in advocating for and where necessary, enforcing good corporate governance practices, based on universally defined pillars and elements of corporate governance.

The Bank Of Tanzania (Bot) As The Custodian Of The Tanzanian Economy: Opportunities And Challenges, Conrad John Masabo Mr.

Conrad John Masabo Mr.

When Tanzania embarked on fundamental transformation of its economy almost two decades ago one of the top agenda in the economic reforms was the need to overhaul the financial system. And in view of pivotal role it plays in the country’s economy, the banking sector was the first to undergo reforms. Implementation of the reforms followed recommendations of the Presidential Commission on the need to modernize the banking sector dubbed the Nyirabu Commission. The BOT Act of 1995 was a landmark in Tanzania’s monetary history by adopting a single policy objective, i.e. price stability and moving away from multiple-policy objectives. …

How You Estimate The Yield Curve Matters!, Luiz Paulo Fichtner, Pedro Santa-Clara

Luiz Paulo Fichtner

We evaluate a two-factor Cox et al. (1985a,b) model using Euribor zero-coupon yields. We estimate this model using a state-space framework, where we sum a log-likelihood function of the state vector dynamics to a log-likelihood function of cross-section pricing errors. We introduce a likelihood-scaling weight in the joint log-likelihood function and show that there is a tradeoff in how one estimates a yield curve. Giving more weight to the cross-section of pricing errors improves the fitting and forecasting of Euribor yields, while giving more weight to the log-likelihood function of the state vector dynamics improves interest rate derivative pricing at …

Out-Of-Sample Predictability Of Bond Returns, Luiz Paulo Fichtner, Pedro Santa-Clara

Luiz Paulo Fichtner

We test the out-of-sample predictive power for one-year bond excess returns for a vari- ety of models that have been proposed in the literature. We find that these models perform well in sample, but have worse out-of-sample performance than the historical sample mean. We write the one-year excess return on a n-maturity bond at time t + 1 as the difference between n times the n-maturity bond yield at time t, and the sum of n − 1 times the (n − 1)-maturity bond yield at time t + 1 and the one-year bond yield at time t. Instead of …

An Optimal Strategy For Maximizing The Expected Real- Estate Selling Price: Accept Or Reject An Offer?, Martin Egozcue, Luis Fuentes García, Ricardas Zitikis

Martin Egozcue

Motivated by a real-life situation, we put forward a model and then derive an optimal strategy that maximizes the expected real-estate selling price when one of the only two remaining buyers has already made an offer but the other one is yet to make. Since the seller is not sure whether the other buyer would make a lower or higher offer, and given no recall, the seller needs a strategy to decide whether to accept or reject the first-come offer. The herein derived optimal seller's strategy, which maximizes the expected selling price, is illustrated under several scenarios, such as independent …

Optimal Investment Strategies Using Multi-Property Commercial Real Estate Analysis Of Pre/Post Housing Bubble, Kyle Kundiger

HIM 1990-2015

This paper analyzes theperformance of five commercial real estate property types (office, retail, industrial, apartment, and hotel) between 2000 and 2012 to determine the U.S. housing crisis'simpact on Real Estate investing. Under the concept of Modern Portfolio Theory, the data was analyzed using investment analysis programs to determine correlation, risk/return characteristics, and trade-offs (Sharpe ratio) as well as the optimal allocation among the individual property types. In light of the results, each property type plays a different role in investment strategies in various economic cycles. Some assets are attractive solely based onpotential return, or risk for return tradeoffs; however, through …

Is Economic Value Added (Eva) The Best Way To Assemble A Portfolio?, Tamas Pataky

HIM 1990-2015

In search of a better investment metric, researchers began to study Economic Value Added, or EVA, which was introduced in 1991 by Stern Stewart & Co in their book, "The Quest for Value" (Turvey, 2000). Stern Stewart & Co devised EVA as a better alternative to evaluate investment projects within the corporate finance field, later to be considered for use as a performance metric for investor use. A wide array of multinational corporations, such as Coca-Cola, Briggs and Stratton, and AT&T adopted the EVA method, which led to EVA's worldwide acclaim. Several points in the study reveal that EVA does …

Money And Asset Prices With Uninsurable Risks, Nicolas L. Jacquet, Serene Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a model where the coexistence of money and a higher yielding asset is endogenously obtained when no restriction is placed on the use of either object as a medium of exchange. Due to the presence of uninsurable risks, agents have, in equilibrium, di⁄erent relative valuations of the asset to money, and hence, the use of money as a means of payment is strictly preferred. This endogenous di⁄erence in the willingness of agents to use money over the asset implies that money carries a greater liquidity premium than the asset. We obtain that the asset strictly dominates money in …

Essays In Development Economics And Economics Of The Family, Aaron Johnson

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Chapter 1 explores a potential solution to the continuing disequlibrium in microfinance markets. I design a mechanism to aid in securitization of microloans, using a dynamic investment pool governed by a Central Microcredit Clearinghouse (CMC), that would sell investment units back to MFIs and outside investors simultaneously. The CMC would serve as a catalyst to this other avenue of microcredit financing, securitization of microloans, which could help spawn the type of growth in investor-based funding of MFIs that is so urgently needed. Chapter 2 analyzes Official Development Assistance (ODA) commitment and disbursement activity in terms of motivation, considering that the …

Impact Of The 2003 Illinois Gaming Tax Rate Increase On Marketing Spending And Cross-State Substitution, Mikael Bengt Ahlgren

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The purpose of this research was to investigate three potential consequences related to the 2003 Illinois Gaming Tax rate restructuring. The first section presents the assessment of whether a higher tax rate motivated an Illinois casino operator to reduce of marketing/promotional expenditures in an attempt to negatively influence revenues. The second establishes if the surrounding state gaming operators reacted to the increased Gaming Tax rate in Illinois, by raising their marketing spending. The last section clarifies whether the changes to the Illinois Gaming Tax Schedule impacted gaming volumes in the neighboring/competing states of Indiana, Iowa, and Missouri.

The analysis relied …

Contracting Over Prices, Shurojit Chatterji, Sayantan Ghosal

Research Collection School Of Economics

We define a solution concept, perfectly contracted equilibrium, for an intertemporal exchange economy where agents are simultaneously price takers in spot commodity markets while engaging inefficient, non-Walrasian contracting over future prices. Without requiring that agents have perfect foresight, we show that perfectly contracted equilibrium outcomes are a subset of Pareto optimal allocations. It is a robust possibility for perfectly contracted equilibrium outcomes to differ from Arrow-Debreu equilibrium outcomes. We show that both centralized banking and retrading with bilateral contracting can lead to perfectly contracted equilibria.

A Second Look At The 2007-08 Food Price Crisis: Considering The Impact Of Endogenous Dynamics On Food Prices, Luigi Russi

Luigi Russi

This paper offers an alternative to the conventional explanation of the 2007-08 food price crisis in terms of escalating demand or dwindling supply. Instead, its focus is on the legal institutional structure of commodity futures markets, which has witnessed a drastic alteration in the role of speculators. These have transformed from “market makers” (that keep commodity futures markets liquid by arbitraging on price fluctuations) to “market breakers”. Index speculation, in particular, has had the effect of muddling information about market “fundamentals” because of the need – brought about by commodity index swaps – for swap dealers to hedge the fluctuations …

The Unbearable Lightness Of The Economics-Made-Fun Genre, Peter Spiegler

Peter Spiegler

Several commentators have argued that the Economics-Made-Fun (“EMF”) genre contains very little actual economics. As such, it would seem that criticisms of EMF do not apply economics more broadly. In this paper I take a contrary view, arguing that, in fact, at a deep conceptual level, the engine of EMF analyses is precisely the engine of mainstream economics. Specifically, I argue that both EMF and mainstream economics rest on a conceptual foundation known as the Principal of the Substitution of Similars (“PSS”). Understanding how PSS leads EMF practitioners to make claims well beyond what is warranted by their analysis also …

The Relationship Among The Liquidity In Real Economy, Financial Economy And Inflation, Zhaoxuan Sun

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

This paper introduces the principles supporting the fisher transaction equation. Then, it transforms the traditional quantity equation, and adds the financial economic department into the equation to estimate currency liquidity respectively. We show that when liquidity enters into the real economy and the financial economy, the capital price will change earlier than the product price does. We could also interpret that the excess liquidity in the financial economy firstly affects the capital price. Then, the capital price will take positive effects on the product price. This is opposed to the influence mechanism taken by liquidity on the real economy. We …

Stock Market Efficiency In The S&P 500 With Respect To Day Of The Week, Zachary James Rodenbarger

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

Theoretically speaking, we assume that markets are efficient and that investors should not be able to earn abnormal returns without privately held information. The fact that fund managers beat the market can simply be explained as luck. However, realistically speaking, the markets involve humans that do not always make rational decisions, which can lead to market inefficiencies. This paper looks into one such inefficiency which regards trading day of the week in the S&P 500 through three different forecasting periods coming before, during, and after the financial crisis of 2008. Theoretically we would expect to find no pattern or correlation …

Link Between S&P 500 And Ftse 100 And The Comparison Of That Link Before And After The S&P 500 Peak In October 2007, Michael Joseph Silk

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

The paper reviews the correlation between the S&P 500 and the FTSE 100 before and during the 2008 global financial crisis. It found that The S&P 500 has a strong causation effect on the FTSE 100, both before and since the financial crisis. This link seems to have increased after the October 2007 peak in the S&P 500. Since the crisis, the FTSE 100 appears to have a weak causation effect on the S&P 500. Before the crisis there was no apparent impact on the S&P 500’s movements from movements in the FTSE 100.

The Empirical Study Of Earnings Management Based On Chinese Listed Companies, Yang Zhang

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

Earnings management that is used to manipulate book earnings to an expected level has been one of the controversial topics in the accounting field. It occurs two ways: one is accrued earnings management and the other is real earnings management. Many studies show that these two methods have a reciprocal relationship based on the costs of using them. The accrued earnings management method is preferred when the accounting standards are flexible and the real earnings management is preferred when the legal systems are good. This paper verifies its findings by drawing a link to the new accounting standard announced by …

The Global Financial Tsunami : 2008, Juan Manuel Chaves Echeverri

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

In 2008 a series of bankruptcies of financial institutions led the United States and the principal economies of the world into a recession of great magnitude that required exceptional government intervention.

It started on September 14th when Lehman Brothers announced that it was entering into chapter 11 bankruptcy. After this, there was intervention in recognized multinational corporations like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and American International Group. There were also the bank failures of Washington Mutual and Citigroup.

The main cause of this crisis was the excessive level of leverage of the financial industry, which had its roots in the real …

Convex Combinations Of Quadrant Dependent Copulas, Martin Egozcue, Luis Fuentes García, Wing Wong, Ricardas Zitikis

Martin Egozcue

It is well known that quadrant dependent (QD) random variables are also quadrant dependent in expectation (QDE). Recent literature has offered examples rigorously establishing the fact that there are QDE random variables which are not QD. The examples are based on convex combinations of specially chosen QD copulas: one negatively QD and another positively QD. In this paper we establish general results that determine when convex combinations of arbitrary QD copulas give rise to negatively or positively QD/QDE copulas. In addition to being an interesting mathematical exercise, the established results are helpful when modeling insurance and financial portfolios.

Basel Iii And Credit Risk Measurement: Variations Among G20 Countries, Matt Schlickenmaier

San Diego International Law Journal

Most countries require banks to hold extra capital to protect against unforeseen financial calamities; banks with riskier loans must hold more capital than those with safer loans. Basel II, a set of international banking standards, allows banks to measure a loan’s risk in different ways: some banks make their own judgments; others use outside agencies. The recent mortgage crisis prompted banks to reevaluate these methods, in part due to banks having failed to perceive the high level of risk inherent in securitized mortgages. The international community’s response was Basel III, an updated version of its previous standards. This Comment will …

Problematique, David A. Westbrook

Other Scholarship

No abstract provided.

Can Us Economic Variables Predict Chinese Stock Market?, Jeremy Goh, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Yuchen Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In the last few decades, we observed a significant increase in global economic activities and these activities may have an impact on both China's economy and stock market. Given the potential impact, we empirically examine whether US economic variables are leading indicators of the Chinese stock market. Prior to China joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the end of 2001, we find no statistical relationship between US economic variables and the Chinese stock market returns. However, we find US economic variables have statistically significant predictive power for periods after China's admission into the WTO. In addition, we show that …