Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Alcohol Fuel: Looking Back And Looking Ahead, Thomas L. Dobbs

Economics Commentator

No abstract provided.

Statistical Inference In Regressions With Integrated Processes: Part 1, Joon Y. Park, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper develops a multivariate regression theory for integrated processes which simplifies and extends much earlier work. Our framework allows for both stochastic and certain deterministic regressors, vector autoregressions and regressors with drift. The main focus of the paper is statistical inference. The presence of nuisance parameters in the asymptotic distributions of regression F -tests is explored and new transformations are introduced to deal with these dependencies. Some specializations of our theory are considered in detail. In models with strictly exogenous regressors we demonstrate the validity of conventional asymptotic theory for appropriately constructed Wald tests. These tests provide a simple …

The Impact Of Reserve Requirements On Free Bank Failures, Andrew J. Economopoulos

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

The Free Banking Era, noted for numerous bank failures and large creditor losses, has been traditionally viewed as the experiment in laissez-faire banking that failed. Current researchers have found evidence suggesting that bank failures and creditor losses were limited to selected states and have linked the cause of bank failures to periods of falling asset prices. Free banks were required to hold long-term assets as primary reserves for short-term liabilities. Current banking theory suggests that the maturity imbalance between assets and liabilities increases the free bank's exposure to interest rate risk. Some states imposed a secondary reserve, the specie reserve …

Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing?, J. Bradford Delong, Lawrence Summers

J. Bradford DeLong

This paper uses John Taylor's model of overlapping contracts to show that increased wage and price flexibility can easily be destabilizing because of the Mundell effect. Simulations based on "realistic" parameter values suggest that increases in price flexibility might well increase the cyclical variability of output in the United States.

Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing?, J. Bradford Delong, Lawrence Summers

J. Bradford DeLong

No abstract provided.

International Evidence On The Demand For Money, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

One of the current questions in the literature on the demand for money is whether the adjustment of actual to desired money holdings is in nominal or real terms. This paper describes a simple procedure that can be used to test the nominal against the real hypothesis. The test is carried out for 27 countries. The paper also tests the structural stability of the demand for money equations and the correctness of the dynamic specification.

A Strategic Market Game With Complete Markets, Rabah Amir, Siddhartha Sahi, Martin Shubik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Existence of equilibrium is proved for an exchange strategic market game with complete markets. An example of equilibrium with inconsistent prices is given.

Interest Rate And Exchange Rate Determination, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

It is well known that modeling exchange rates is difficult. Meese and Rogoff’s (1983) results show that a random walk model performs as well as or better than a variety of structural models, where the forecasts from the structural models are based on the actual values of the future explanatory variables. Because of these and other results, the view has become fairly widespread that structural models of exchange rates are not very good. There is, however, somewhat of a dichotomy in the literature between those who deal with small models, where the focus is almost exclusively on exchange rates, and …

The Dividend-Price Ratio And Expectations Of Future Dividends And Discount Factors, John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A linearization of a rational expectations present value model for corporate stock prices produces a simple relation between the log dividend-price ratio and mathematical expectations of future log real dividend changes and future real discount rates. This relation can be tested using vector autoregressive methods. Three versions of the linearized model, differing in the measure of discount rates, are tested for United States time series 1981-1986: versions using real interest rate data. The results yield a metric to judge the relative importance of real dividend growth, measured real discount rates and unexplained factors in determining the dividend-price ratio.

Den Svarte Torsdag Vil Neppe Gjenta Seg, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

“The Black Thursday Will Hardly Repeat Itself”, pp. 115-126, 17 86 Vardoger, Dec. 1986. “Rivalisering Maktpolitikk Gjeldskrise”. Trondheim, Norway.

Restraint Economics And The New Right: A Structural Analysis Of The Political Economy Of Social Services Cutbacks, John Butcher

The Journal of Sociology & Social Welfare

Restraint by government in the area of social service spending in the 1980's has become an issue of grave concern for social service practitioners, planners, and administrators. The emergence in North America of neo-conservative economic policies has engendered a body of critical and provocative literature which examines the effects of "restraint economics".

Recent work in geography has sought to locate the supply-side trend within a framework of macro-level processes. These suggest that a declining public commitment to maintaining the social safety net is linked to broader structural changes in the workplace and spatial shifts of capital and industry (Dear & …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1986, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

CBN annual report and statement of accounts for 1986 covers economic performance including key economic indicators such as inflation rate, GDP growth, exchange rate stability, banking sector performance, monetary policy, financial stability, fiscal policy, and regulatory updates for 1986. The development in 1986 were mixed. The GDP at constant 1977/78 factor cost was estimated at N25,290 million, representing a decline of 3.3 per cent and the decline was largely due to poor performance of the manufacturing, crude petroleum, wholesale and retail trade sectors. The trajectory of monetary aggregates was relatively in the download direction. Money supply indicated a 1.2 per …

Crop Share Rental Terms In South Dakota, Lary Janssen, Scott Peterson

Economics Commentator

No abstract provided.

Public Policy Toward Corporate Takeovers, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

It should not be government's role to "do something" about hostile takeovers. Many studies show that more harm than good is done when government interferes. Boards of directors need to realize that they need to make choices that serve the desires of their shareholders.

Knightian Decision Theory: Part 1, Truman F. Bewley

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A theory of choice under uncertainty is proposed which removes the completeness assumption from the Anscombe-Aumann formulation of Savage’s theory and introduces an inertia assumption. The inertia assumption is that there is such a thing as the status quo and an alternative is accepted only if it is preferred to the status quo. This theory is one way of giving rigorous expression to Frank Knight’s distinction between risk and uncertainty.

Forecasting The Depression: Harvard Versus Yale, Ray C. Fair, Matthew D. Shapiro, Kathryn M. Dominguez

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Was the Depression forecastable? After the Crash, how long did it take contemporary economic forecasters to realize how severe the downturn was going to be? How long should it have taken them to come to this realization? These questions are addressed by studying the predictions of the Harvard Economic Service and Yale’s Irving Fisher during 1929 and the early 1930’s. The data assembled by the Harvard and Yale forecasters are subjected to modern statistical analysis to learn whether their verbal pronouncements were consistent with the data. We find that both the Harvard and Yale forecasters were systematically too optimistic, yet …

A Game Theoretic Approach To The Theory Of Money And Financial Institutions, Martin Shubik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This is a sketch of a game theoretic and gaming approach to the development of an appropriate microeconomic theory of money and financial institutions. The phrase “money and financial institutions” is used to stress that a theory of money alone cannot be fruitfully constructed in an institutional vacuum. The monetary and financial system of an economy are part of the socio-politico-economic control mechanism used by every state to connect the economy with the polity and society. This neural network provides the administrative means to collect taxes, direct investment, provide public goods, trade. The money measures provide a crude but serviceable …

Finance Capitalism 1986 Style, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

The title page has the notation "mondo-nov" possibly indicating that this was intended for the publication Mondoperaio which Minsky wrote for. Also, according to some handwritten notes found on pages, this was one of several papers that Minsky once housed together with letters to Mario Baccianini who was also affiliated with Mondoperaio.

Farmland Cash Rental Terms In South Dakota, Lary Janssen, Scott Peterson

Economics Commentator

No abstract provided.

Understanding Reagan, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

An undated paper which was apparently housed by Minsky in a file with a letter addressed to Mario Baccianini dated 10.29.1986.

Global Consequences Of Financial Deregulation, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

Wallenberg Forum: “Financial Fragility and Global Growth.” 2 October 1986.

Given here are:

The published article:

A complete draft

The article as a Working Paper

A Precis of the article

An outline.

Minnesota Housing Report [1986 4th Quarter], George R. Karvel Dr.

Minnesota Housing Reports

The Minnesota Housing Report is compiled on the basis of monthly housing reports furnished to the Minnesota Real Estate Research Center at St. Cloud State University. Funding to permit preparation of the Minnesota Housing Report is provided by the Educational Foundation of the Minnesota Association of REALTORS and St. Cloud State University.

The reports are supplied by fourteen cooperating local real estate boards representing 71.5 percent of Minnesota's population. The boards represent various areas of the state and thus provide a picture of housing diversity between regions as well as housing trends within regions.

Information presented for the state or …

Economic Activities Of Children In Two Iranian Villages, Akbar Aghajanian

Sociology Department Faculty Working Papers

No abstract provided.

Responding To Corporate Takeovers: Raiders, Management, And Boards Of Directors, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

This article refutes the need for government to intervene in hostile takeovers, arguing instead that the blame lies with board management. Acknowledging that "hostile" takeovers represent just a small fraction of all mergers, it stresses that corporate boards ultimately have the final say in all decisions.

Enough Commodity Money And The Selection Of A Unique Competitive Equilibrium, Martin Shubik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Suppose that we reformulate the exchange economy as a strategic market game. As all purchases are paid for in cash it is possible to attach precise meaning to what is meant by enough money. As the game is a single simultaneous bid and offered at m trading posts and m prices are all simultaneously determined, in essence the trading technology is completely specified.

Testing For Cointegration Using Principal Component Methods, Peter C.B. Phillips, Sam Ouliaris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies cointegrated systems of multiple time series which are individually well described as integrated processes (with or without a drift). Necessary and sufficient conditions for cointegration are given. These conditions form the basis for a new class of statistical procedures designed to test for cointegration. The new procedures rely on principal components methods. They are simple to employ and they involve only the standard normal distribution. Monte Carlo simulations reported in the paper indicate that the new procedures provide simple and apparently rather powerful diagnostics for the detection of cointegration. Some empirical applications to macroeconomic data are conducted.

The Unique Minimal Cash Flow Competitive Equilibrium, Martin Shubik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The exchange economy E can be reformulated as a strategic market game. In particular the point of concern here involves the introduction of a specified amount of credit or fiat money to monetize exchange. Dubey and Shubik (1979) and Shubik and Wilson (1977) have studied the possibility of introducing a fixed amount M of money to finance trade. When one formulates exchange as a game of strategy using any form of credit or fiat money where there is any possibility whatsoever that an individual will be unable to pay back that which he has borrowed, the rules of the game …

The Tax Reform Now Passing Through Congress Evades The Issue Of Fairness …The Political Issue Of Tax Reform Will Not Go Away, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

One of the ongoing columns “The Economy from the Not-so Ivory Tower.”

Interest Rate Volatility And The Demand For Money, James Mcgibany, Farrokh Nourzad

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

No abstract provided.

An Almost Ideal Demand System For Housing Attributes, George R. Parsons

George Parsons

No abstract provided.