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Articles 1 - 30 of 43
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Family Size And Child Migration: Do Daughters Face Greater Trade-Offs Than Sons?, Christine Ho, Yutao Wang, Sharon Xuejing Zuo
Family Size And Child Migration: Do Daughters Face Greater Trade-Offs Than Sons?, Christine Ho, Yutao Wang, Sharon Xuejing Zuo
Research Collection School Of Economics
We show that, conditional on family size, rural boys and girls are equally likely to migrate with parents in China. Nevertheless, daughters’ migration may still be compromised because they tend to have more siblings in societies with strong son preference, and larger families are more likely to leave all children behind. We find that a one unit increase in sibship size decreases the probability that a daughter migrates by 12.5 percentage points—with stronger effects when migration restrictions are more stringent—but has negligible effects on sons. The results suggest that gender-neutral migration constraints may generate gendered family size trade-offs.
Diverse Pathways To Permanent Childlessness In Singapore: A Latent Class Analysis, Yanwen Wang, Bussarawan Teerawichitchainan, Christine Ho
Diverse Pathways To Permanent Childlessness In Singapore: A Latent Class Analysis, Yanwen Wang, Bussarawan Teerawichitchainan, Christine Ho
Research Collection School Of Economics
The proportions of adults reaching midlife without having children have been rising rapidly across the globe, particularly in Asia. However, little is known about the pathways to permanent childlessness within the region’s childless population. This study utilized latent class analysis (LCA) to typologize pathways to childlessness based on dynamic characteristics of multiple life domains (i.e., partnership, education, and occupation) among 489 childless Singaporeans aged 50 and above from a 2022 nationwide survey. Additionally, we utilized multinomial logistic regressions to examine the sociodemographic correlates of pathway profiles and Shannon’s entropy index to assess the heterogeneity in pathways to childlessness among successive …
Associative Networks In Decision Making, Jiangtao Li, Rui Tang, Mu Zhang
Associative Networks In Decision Making, Jiangtao Li, Rui Tang, Mu Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We present a model of associative networks that captures how a decision maker expands her consideration set through mental associations between alternatives. This model serves as a tool to understand the influence of association on decision making. As a proof of concept, we characterize this model within a random attention framework and demonstrate that all the relevant parameters are uniquely identifiable. Notably, in a novel choice domain where not all observable alternatives are available, the presence of unavailable alternatives can affect the choice frequencies of other alternatives through association.
Value Capture And Affordable Housing: Insights From Singapore, Sock Yong Phang
Value Capture And Affordable Housing: Insights From Singapore, Sock Yong Phang
Research Collection School Of Economics
To explain the role of value capture in Singapore’s progress, I will first provide some background information on Singapore and its housing sector. I will then take you on a journey back to the 1960s to show how we established our present institutional arrangements for land and housing. I will next describe how housing policies have evolved over the past six decades in response to changing contexts. Finally, I will conclude with the fiscal implications of successful value capture. Where relevant, I will indicate how Singapore’s policies align with George’s views.
Digital Payments And Consumption: Evidence From The 2016 Demonetization In India, Sumit Agarwal, Pulak Ghosh, Jing Li, Tianyue Ruan
Digital Payments And Consumption: Evidence From The 2016 Demonetization In India, Sumit Agarwal, Pulak Ghosh, Jing Li, Tianyue Ruan
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study how consumer spending responds to digital payments, using the differential switch to digital payments across consumers induced by the sudden 2016 Indian Demonetization for identification. Usage of digital payments rose by 3.38 percentage points and monthly spending increased by 3% for an additional 10 percentage points in prior cash dependence. Spending remained elevated even when cash availability recovered. Robustness analyses show that the spending response is not driven by income shocks, credit supply, price changes, or consumers' moving to the formal market. We provide evidence that digital payments increase consumer spending due to subdued salience.
A Robust Optimization Approach To Mechanism Design, Jiangtao Li, Kexin Wang
A Robust Optimization Approach To Mechanism Design, Jiangtao Li, Kexin Wang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study the design of mechanisms when the mechanism designer faces local uncertainty about agents’ beliefs. Specifically, we consider a designer who does not know the exact beliefs of the agents but is confident that her estimate is within ϵ of the beliefs held by the agents (where ϵ reflects the degree of local uncertainty). Adopting the robust optimization approach, we design mechanisms that incentivize agents to truthfully report their payoff-relevant information regardless of their actual beliefs. For any fixed ϵ, we identify necessary and sufficient conditions under which requiring this sense of robustness is without loss of revenue for …
Efficient Bilateral Trade With Interdependent Values: The Use Of Two-Stage Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang
Efficient Bilateral Trade With Interdependent Values: The Use Of Two-Stage Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
As efficient, voluntary bilateral trades are generally not incentive compatible in an interdependent-value environment (Fieseler, Kittsteiner, Moldovanu (2003) and Gresik (1991)), we seek for more positive results by employing two-stage mechanisms (Mezzetti (2004)). We say that a two-stage mechanism satisfies incentive compatibility if the truth-telling in both stages constitutes an equilibrium strategy.First, we show by means of a stylized example that the generalized two-stage Groves mechanism never guarantees voluntary trade, while it satisfies efficiency and incentive compatibility. In a general environment, we next propose Assumption 1 under which there exists a two-stage incentive compatible mechanism implementing an efficient, voluntary trade. …
Rank-Guaranteed Auctions, Wei He, Jiangtao Li, Weijie Zhong
Rank-Guaranteed Auctions, Wei He, Jiangtao Li, Weijie Zhong
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose a combinatorial ascending auction that is “approximately” optimal, requiring minimal rationality to achieve this level of optimality, and is robust to strategic and distributional uncertainties. Specifically, the auction is rankguaranteed, meaning that for any menu M and any valuation profile, the ex-post revenue is guaranteed to be at least as high as the highest revenue achievable from feasible allocations, taking the (|M| + 1)th-highest valuation for each bundle as the price. Our analysis highlights a crucial aspect of combinatorial auction design, namely, the design of menus. We provide simple and sufficient menus in various settings.
High Dimensional Regression Coefficient Test With High Frequency Data, Dachuan Chen, Long Feng, Per A. Myklang, Lan Zhang
High Dimensional Regression Coefficient Test With High Frequency Data, Dachuan Chen, Long Feng, Per A. Myklang, Lan Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper presents the first study on high-dimensional regression coefficient tests with high-frequency financial data. These tests allow the number of regressors to be larger than the number of observations within each estimation block and can grow to infinity in asymptotics. In this paper, the sum-type test and max-type test have been proposed, where the former is suitable for the dense alternative (many small betas) and the latter is suitable for the sparse alternative (a very small number of large betas). By showing the asymptotic independence between the sum-type test and max-type test, the paper proposes a third test – …
Bubbly Booms And Welfare, Feng Dong, Yang Jiao, Haoning Sun
Bubbly Booms And Welfare, Feng Dong, Yang Jiao, Haoning Sun
Research Collection School Of Economics
We show the competing effects of a housing bubble on the real economy by developing a multi-sector dynamic model with housing production. On the one hand, firms can sell or collateralize their housing, so a housing bubble helps firms obtain credit to finance their investment and expand production. On the other hand, a boom in the housing sector crowds out labor in the non-housing sector. We show that housing booms can reduce social welfare both in the steady state and in the transitional dynamics only when the production externalities in the non-housing sector are sufficiently large. We quantitatively evaluate our …
Coarse Revealed Preference, Gaoji Hu, Jiangtao Li, John K-H Quah, Rui Tang
Coarse Revealed Preference, Gaoji Hu, Jiangtao Li, John K-H Quah, Rui Tang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose a novel concept of rationalization, called coarse rationalization, tailored for the analysis of datasets where an agent’s choices are imperfectly observed. We characterize those datasets which are rationalizable in this sense and present an efficient algorithm to verify the characterizing condition. We then demonstrate how our results can be applied through a duality approach to test the rationalizability of datasets with perfectly observed choices but imprecisely observed linear budget sets. For datasets that consist of both perfectly observed feasible sets and choices but are inconsistent with perfect rationality, our results could be used to measure the extent to …
Childlessness, Social Network Profiles In Midlife And Late Adulthood, And Their Implications For Subjective Well-Being, Bussarawan Teerawichitchainan, Dahye Kim, Christine Ho
Childlessness, Social Network Profiles In Midlife And Late Adulthood, And Their Implications For Subjective Well-Being, Bussarawan Teerawichitchainan, Dahye Kim, Christine Ho
Research Collection School Of Economics
Objectives: Despite the rising prevalence of individuals reaching advanced age without children, little is known about the diversity of support networks within childless populations. We examine the network profiles of childless adults aged 50+ in Singapore, which observes high childlessness rates despite societal emphasis on familism. Methods: We employ latent class analysis to derive network typology based on a 2022 nationwide survey in Singapore. Additionally, we use logistic regression analyses to investigate the sociodemographic correlates of childless individuals' network types and the associations between these network types and subjective well-being. Results: Childless Singaporeans form a heterogeneous group characterized by different …
Enhancing Student Engagement In Introductory Economics With Interactive Videos And Synthesized Readings In Flipped Learning, Bei Hong, Duan Ning, Magdeleine Lew
Enhancing Student Engagement In Introductory Economics With Interactive Videos And Synthesized Readings In Flipped Learning, Bei Hong, Duan Ning, Magdeleine Lew
Research Collection School Of Economics
A major challenge faced by university economics instructors is to find more time to incorporate active learning into the classroom, which encourages student participation. As a result, more instructors choose to flip their classrooms, in which students are encouraged to perform preparatory reading or watch videos to participate more meaningfully and learn more effectively. This study aims to examine how pre-lecture materials enhance student participation by examining the effectiveness of two types of materials: interactive videos and synthesized readings. The synthesized readings contain essential information extracted from the textbook and is presented in a structured manner with highlighted key points. …
Allocating Vehicle Registration Permits, Massimiliano Landi, Domenico Menicucci
Allocating Vehicle Registration Permits, Massimiliano Landi, Domenico Menicucci
Research Collection School Of Economics
We compare social welfare, consumer surplus and profits in two different institutional settings in which an item whose quantity is fixed and controlled (vehicle registration permit) is allocated to the buyers of a complementary good (car). In the first setting, which resembles the way in which vehicle registration permits are allocated in Singapore, the central planner runs a uniform price auction for permits in which the consumers who bid the highest receive the permits and pay the highest losing bid. Then each winning consumer purchases a car from a seller. In the alternative setting, the central planner first allocates the …
The Balance Of Concessions In Trade Agreements, Mostafa Beshkar, Pao-Li Chang, Shenxi Song
The Balance Of Concessions In Trade Agreements, Mostafa Beshkar, Pao-Li Chang, Shenxi Song
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper introduces a quantitative framework to analyze the WTO’s reciprocity principle. Utilizing two polar bargaining environments, we measure terms-of-trade concessions among WTO members and examine how shifts in applied tariffs and economic fundamentals affect bilateral and multilateral balance of concessions. We find significant disparities in concessions, largely driven by the rise in trade imbalances since the early 1990s. Notably, although US-China bilateral tariffs suggest considerable terms-of-trade benefits for China, under a hypothetical balanced trade scenario, their relationship evolves towards near reciprocity following China’s accession to the WTO. Furthermore, in contrast to the significant gains in its relationship with the …
Hiv Estimation Using Population-Based Surveys With Non-Response: A Partial Identification Approach, Oyelola A. Adegboye, Tomoki Fujii, Denis H. Y. Leung, Siyu Li
Hiv Estimation Using Population-Based Surveys With Non-Response: A Partial Identification Approach, Oyelola A. Adegboye, Tomoki Fujii, Denis H. Y. Leung, Siyu Li
Research Collection School Of Economics
HIV estimation using data from the demographic and health surveys (DHS) islimited by the presence of non-response and test refusals. Conventional adjust-ments such as imputation require the data to be missing at random. Methodsthat use instrumental variables allow the possibility that prevalence is differentbetween the respondents and non-respondents, but their performance dependscritically on the validity of the instrument. Using Manski’s partial identifica-tion approach, we form instrumental variable bounds for HIV prevalence from apool of candidate instruments. Our method does not require all candidate instruments to be valid. We use a simulation study to evaluate and compare ourmethod against its competitors. …
Wild Bootstrap Inference For Instrumental Variables Regressions With Weak And Few Clusters, Wenjie Wang, Yichong Zhang
Wild Bootstrap Inference For Instrumental Variables Regressions With Weak And Few Clusters, Wenjie Wang, Yichong Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study the wild bootstrap inference for instrumental variable regressions under an alternative asymptotic framework that the number of independent clusters is fixed, the size of each cluster diverges to infinity, and the within cluster dependence is sufficiently weak. We first show that the wild bootstrap Wald test controls size asymptotically up to a small error as long as the parameters of endogenous variables are strongly identified in at least one of the clusters. Second, we establish the conditions for the bootstrap tests to have power against local alternatives. We further develop a wild bootstrap Anderson–Rubin test for the full-vector …
Hiv Estimation Using Population Based Surveys With Non-Response: A Partial Identification Approach, Oyelola A Adegboye, Tomoki Fujii, Denis H. Y. Leung, Siyu Li
Hiv Estimation Using Population Based Surveys With Non-Response: A Partial Identification Approach, Oyelola A Adegboye, Tomoki Fujii, Denis H. Y. Leung, Siyu Li
Research Collection School Of Economics
HIV estimation using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) is lim-ited by the presence of non-response and test refusals. Conventional adjustments such as imputation require the data to be missing at random. Methods that use instrumental variables allow the possibility that prevalence is different between the respondents and non-respondents, but their performance depends critically on the validity of the instru-ment. Using Manski’s partial identification approach, we form instrumental variable bounds for HIV prevalence from a pool of candidate instruments. Our method does not require all candidate instruments to be valid. We use a simulation study to evaluate and …
Housing Markets Since Shapley And Scarf, Mustafa Oguz Afacan, Gaoji Hu, Jiangtao Li
Housing Markets Since Shapley And Scarf, Mustafa Oguz Afacan, Gaoji Hu, Jiangtao Li
Research Collection School Of Economics
Shapley and Scarf (1974) appeared in the first issue of the Journal of Mathematical Economics, and is one of the journal’s most impactful publications. As we approach the remarkable milestone of the journal’s 50th anniversary (1974–2024), this article serves as a commemorative exploration of Shapley and Scarf (1974) and the extensive body of literature that follows it.
Bootstrap Inference For Quantile Treatment Effects In Randomized Experiments With Matched Pairs, Liang Jiang, Xiaobin Liu, Peter C B Phillips, Yichong Zhang
Bootstrap Inference For Quantile Treatment Effects In Randomized Experiments With Matched Pairs, Liang Jiang, Xiaobin Liu, Peter C B Phillips, Yichong Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper examines methods of inference concerning quantile treatment effects (QTEs) in randomized experiments with matched-pairs designs (MPDs). Standard multiplier bootstrap inference fails to capture the negative dependence of observations within each pair and is therefore conservative. Analytical inference involves estimating multiple functional quantities that require several tuning parameters. Instead, this paper proposes two bootstrap methods that can consistently approximate the limit distribution of the original QTE estimator and lessen the burden of tuning parameter choice. Most especially, the inverse propensity score weighted multiplier bootstrap can be implemented without knowledge of pair identities.
Migration And Resource Misallocation In China, Xiaolu Li, Lin Ma, Yang Tang
Migration And Resource Misallocation In China, Xiaolu Li, Lin Ma, Yang Tang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We structurally estimate the firm-level frictions across prefectures in China and quantify their aggregate and distributional implications. Based on a general equilibrium model with input and output distortions and migration, we show that the firm-level frictions are less dispersed and less correlated with firm productivity in richer prefectures. Counterfactual exercises show that reducing the within-prefecture misallocation increases aggregate welfare, discourages migration toward large prefectures, and reduces spatial inequality. Moreover, internal migration alleviates micro-frictions’ impacts on aggregate welfare and worsens their effects on spatial inequality.
Panel Data Models With Time-Varying Latent Group Structures, Yiren Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su
Panel Data Models With Time-Varying Latent Group Structures, Yiren Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper considers a linear panel model with interactive fixed effects and unobserved individual and time heterogeneities that are captured by some latent group structures and an unknown structural break, respectively. To enhance realism, the model may have different numbers of groups and/or different group memberships before and after the break. With preliminary nuclear norm regularized estimation followed by row- and column-wise linear regressions, we estimate the break point based on the idea of binary segmentation and the latent group structures together with the number of groups before and after the break by sequential testing K-means algorithm simultaneously. It is …
Robust Inference On Correlation Under General Heterogeneity, Liudas Giraitis, Yuefei Li, Peter C. B. Phillips
Robust Inference On Correlation Under General Heterogeneity, Liudas Giraitis, Yuefei Li, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
Considerable evidence in past research shows size distortion in standard tests for zero autocorrelation or zero cross-correlation when time series are not independent identically distributed random variables, pointing to the need for more robust procedures. Recent tests for serial correlation and cross-correlation in Dalla, Giraitis, and Phillips (2022) provide a more robust approach, allowing for heteroskedasticity and dependence in uncorrelated data under restrictions that require a smooth, slowly-evolving deterministic heteroskedasticity process. The present work removes those restrictions and validates the robust testing methodology for a wider class of innovations and regression residuals allowing for heteroscedastic uncorrelated and non-stationary data settings. …
The Interplay Of Interdependence And Correlation In Bilateral Trade, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang
The Interplay Of Interdependence And Correlation In Bilateral Trade, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Crémer and McLean (1988) show that the seller can extract full surplus almost always by an incentive compatible, individually rational mechanism in a single-unit auction model with a finite type space in which agents' beliefs are correlated and their valuations can be interdependent. We first show that this paradoxically positive result can be extended to a model of bilateral trades. To make it more realistic, we investigate when ex-post efficiency and ex-post budget balance in bilateral trades can also be achieved by an incentive compatible, individually rational mechanism. We identify a necessary condition for the existence of such mechanisms and …
Robust Implementation In Rationalizable Strategies In General Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Rene Saran
Robust Implementation In Rationalizable Strategies In General Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Rene Saran
Research Collection School Of Economics
A social choice function (SCF) is robustly implementable in rationalizable strate-gies if every rationalizable strategy profile on every type space results in outcomes consistent with it. First, we establish an equivalence between robust implementation in rationalizable strategies and “weak rationalizable implementation”. Second, using the equivalence result, we identify weak robust monotonicity as a necessary and al-most sufficient condition for robust implementation in rationalizable strategies. This exhibits a contrast with robust implementation in interim equilibria, i.e., every equilib-rium on every type space achieves outcomes consistent with the SCF. Bergemann and Morris (2011) show that strict robust monotonicity is a necessary and …
Interim Regret Minimization, Wei He, Jiangtao Li, Kexin Wang
Interim Regret Minimization, Wei He, Jiangtao Li, Kexin Wang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We consider a robust version of monopoly pricing when the seller only knows the bound on valuations and the mean of the distribution of the buyer’s value. The seller seeks to minimize interim regret, the forgone expected revenue due to not knowing the distribution of the buyer’s value. The optimal pricing policy randomizes over a range of prices; the support of the pricing policy is bounded away from zero.
(Trade) War And Peace: How To Impose International Trade Sanctions, Gustavo De Souza, Naiyuan Hu, Haishi Li, Yuan Mei
(Trade) War And Peace: How To Impose International Trade Sanctions, Gustavo De Souza, Naiyuan Hu, Haishi Li, Yuan Mei
Research Collection School Of Economics
What is the most cost-efficient way to impose trade sanctions against Russia? We build a quantitative model of international trade with input–output connections. Sanctioning countries choose import tariffs to simultaneously maximize their income and minimize Russia's income, with different weights placed on these objectives. We find, first, that for countries with low willingness to pay for sanctions against Russia, the most cost-efficient sanction is an approximately 20% tariff on all Russian products. Second, if countries are willing to pay at least US$0.70 for each US$1 drop in Russian welfare, an embargo on Russia's mining and energy products is the most …
Who Watched Pre/Post-Lecture Tutorial Videos? Does Flipped Learning Help Beginners In Economics?, Bei Hong
Who Watched Pre/Post-Lecture Tutorial Videos? Does Flipped Learning Help Beginners In Economics?, Bei Hong
Research Collection School Of Economics
The modern-day classroom is characterized by academic diversity, with students from varied backgrounds and with different levels of prior knowledge. To cater to the diverse abilities of students, this paper explored the use of flipped learning as a teaching approach in an introductory economics course. We investigated the effectiveness of 40 pre-lecture videos covering basic concepts and 27 post-lecture tutorial videos focusing on practice in improving students' exam outcomes, especially for beginners in economics who may require more support from instructors than other students. We collected data about video engagement and students' grades in progress assessments. Surveys were conducted to …
Life Satisfaction Changes And Adaptation In The Covid-19 Pandemic: Evidence From Singapore, Terence C. Cheng, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh
Life Satisfaction Changes And Adaptation In The Covid-19 Pandemic: Evidence From Singapore, Terence C. Cheng, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh
Research Collection School Of Economics
We provide novel evidence on how COVID-19 affected overall life satisfaction using a monthly longitudinal survey of middle-aged and older Singaporeans. We study how the subjective well-being of individuals evolves over the course of 18 months including the outbreak of the pandemic, the implementation of the lockdown and the spike of cases due to the delta variant in a country where COVID-19 is controlled in a sustained manner. Using an event-study design framework, we find large declines in overall life satisfaction in the lead-up to and following the lockdown. Fifteen months after the outbreak of the pandemic, and 13 months …
Optimal Inference For Spot Regressions, Tim Bollerslev, Jia Li, Yuexuan Ren
Optimal Inference For Spot Regressions, Tim Bollerslev, Jia Li, Yuexuan Ren
Research Collection School Of Economics
Betas from return regressions are commonly used to measure systematic financial market risks. "Good" beta measurements are essential for a range of empirical inquiries in finance and macroeconomics. We introduce a novel econometric framework for the nonparametric estimation of time-varying betas with high-frequency data. The "local Gaussian" property of the generic continuous-time benchmark model enables optimal "finite-sample" inference in a well-defined sense. It also affords more reliable inference in empirically realistic settings compared to conventional large-sample approaches. Two applications pertaining to the tracking performance of leveraged ETFs and an intraday event study illustrate the practical usefulness of the new procedures.