Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

How Clinton And Trump Are Using Their Running Mates On The Campaign Trail, Christopher J. Devine, Kyle C. Kopko

Political Science Faculty Publications

Remember how Tim Kaine was supposed to help the Democratic ticket appeal to Latino voters because he speaks fluent Spanish? And how, if selected as Hillary Clinton’s running mate, he would help her win votes in his home state of Virginia? Or how Mike Pence would be able to serve as an emissary to Midwestern and conservative voters if selected as Donald Trump’s running mate?

Did Clinton and Trump really believe the veepstakes punditry that Kaine and Pence could deliver these electoral advantages? And do these considerations help explain how the running mates are being used on the campaign trail …

Why The Kaine Vs. Pence Vice Presidential Debate Matters, Kyle C. Kopko, Christopher J. Devine

Political Science Faculty Publications

Tim Kaine and Mike Pence both have been described as boring.

Many Americans still don’t know who they are, and they share their parties’ tickets with two of the most controversial and unpopular presidential candidates in modern political history. So, it’s a safe bet that their first and only debate on Tuesday night will not draw the record-setting ratings of last week’s first presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump – or even come close.

With the possible exception of 2008, when Joe Biden and Sarah Palin were vice presidential candidates, running mates simply are not the focal point …

Will The Vice Presidential Candidates Matter This Year? Maybe, But Not The Way You Think, Kyle C. Kopko, Christopher J. Devine

Political Science Faculty Publications

Veepstakes speculation is rampant as we approach the national conventions for both major political parties.

Media reports have detailed the wide array of options available to Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton as they decide who will be their number twos for this campaign, and perhaps for four or eight years to come.

Who will Trump and Clinton pick? That depends on each candidate’s goals – both for the remainder of the presidential campaign and after Nov. 8. Political observers widely agree that the most important characteristic to look for in a running mate is the ability to serve as president …

The Vp Advantage: How Running Mates Influence Home State Voting In Presidential Elections, Christopher J. Devine, Kyle C. Kopko

Political Science Faculty Publications

A widespread perception exists among political commentators, campaign operatives and presidential candidates that vice presidential running mates can deliver their home state's electoral votes in a presidential election. In recent elections, presidential campaigns have even changed their strategy in response to the perceived VP home state advantage. But is the advantage real? And could it decide a presidential election? In the most comprehensive analysis to date, Devine and Kopko demonstrate that the VP home state advantage is actually highly conditional and rarely decisive in the Electoral College. However, it could change the outcome of a presidential election under narrow but …

The Politics Of The Presidential Medal Of Freedom: A Fifty Year Analysis, 1963-2013, Kyle C. Kopko, E. Fletcher Mcclellan, Christopher J. Devine, Jillian E. Casey, Julia L. Ward

Political Science Faculty Publications

Established in 1963, the Presidential Medal of Freedom (PMOF) is the nation’s highest civilian honor. Presidents award the Medal at their discretion to “any person who has made an especially meritorious contribution to (1) the security or national interests of the United States, or (2) world peace, or (3) cultural or other significant public or private endeavors” (Executive Order 11085). Using an original database of all 1963-2013 PMOF recipients, we analyze how presidents exercise this symbolic unilateral power. In particular, we find that Democratic and Republican presidents differ in their recognition of various categories of achievement. Also, presidents have awarded …

Ideological Social Identity: Psychological Attachment To Ideological In-Groups As A Political Phenomenon And A Behavioral Influence, Christopher J. Devine

Political Science Faculty Publications

Motivated by symbolic ideology research and Social Identity Theory (SIT), this article introduces an original measure of ideological social identity (ISI) designed to capture feelings of psychological attachment to an ideological in-group and facilitate analysis of their attitudinal and behavioral effects. Data from a nationally representative sample of survey experimental participants indicates that the ISI scale is empirically distinct from ideological self-placement, the standard measure of symbolic ideology, and it conditions the effects of self-placement on vote choice in actual and hypothetical election scenarios. ISI is also common within the American public, particularly among conservatives, and responsive to environmental stimuli …

Presidential Versus Vice Presidential Home State Advantage: A Comparative Analysis Of Electoral Significance, Causes, And Processes, 1884-2008, Christopher J. Devine, Kyle C. Kopko

Political Science Faculty Publications

This article compares the electoral significance, causes, and processes associated with presidential versus vice presidential home state advantages. Our analysis of presidential election returns from 1884 through 2008 demonstrates that presidential candidates generally receive a large, statistically significant home state advantage. However, vice presidential home state advantages are statistically negligible and conditioned on the interactive effect of political experience and state population. Furthermore, the results indicate that the mobilization of new voters primarily accounts for presidential home state advantage, while vice presidential home state advantage is mainly due to the conversion of existing voters. Although home state advantages do occur …

In The Eye Of The Beholder? Motivated Reasoning In Disputed Elections, Kyle C. Kopko, Sarah Mckinnon Bryner, Jeffrey Budziak, Christopher J. Devine, Steven P. Nawara

Political Science Faculty Publications

This study uses an experimental design to simulate the ballot counting process during a hand-recount after a disputed election. Applying psychological theories of motivated reasoning to the political process, we find that ballot counters’ party identification conditionally influences their ballot counting decisions. Party identification’s effect on motivated reasoning is greater when ballot counters are given ambiguous, versus specific, instructions for determining voter intent. This study’s findings have major implications for ballot counting procedures throughout the United States and for the use of motivated reasoning in the political science literature.

The Vice Presidential Home State Advantage Reconsidered: Analyzing The Interactive Effect Of Home State Population And Political Experience, 1884-2008, Christopher J. Devine, Kyle C. Kopko

Political Science Faculty Publications

Previous research has found that presidential tickets perform particularly well in a vice presidential candidate's home state when that state is relatively low in population. In this article, we argue that selecting a vice presidential candidate from a small state is not sufficient to produce a large vice presidential home state advantage; rather, state population should matter only insofar as the vice presidential candidate has extensive experience within that state's political system. Analysis of presidential election returns from 1884 through 2008 demonstrates the statistically significant interactive effect of home state population and political experience on the size of the vice …

Racial Attitude Effects In The 2008 Presidential Election: Examining The Unconventional Factors Shaping Vote Choice In A Most Unconventional Election, Herbert F. Weisberg, Christopher J. Devine

Political Science Faculty Publications

Every election has unique elements, but the 2008 U.S. presidential race had it all: an African-American presidential candidate who won his party’s nomination by defeating a former first lady, an historically unpopular outgoing president, two ongoing wars, a failing economy, and a war hero running for president with a female vice-presidential running mate. With so many unique elements to account for, disentangling their independent effects to identify the dominant factors shaping the 2008 election is a tremendous challenge. This paper explores a wide variety of factors potentially influencing the 2008 vote, but it devotes particular attention to two exceptionally relevant …

Partisan Defection And Change In The 2008 Us Presidential Election, Herbert F. Weisberg, Christopher J. Devine

Political Science Faculty Publications

Party identification remained an important determinant of vote choice in the 2008 election. Indeed, the extent to which people voted according to their partisanship remained as exceptionally high as it had been in the 2004 election. The Democrats led in partisanship, with a greater lead than in 2004. The ANES four‐wave panel survey shows that some change occurred in the Democratic direction during 2008. The Democrats gained among most population groups, with the exception of older citizens. Obama's victory margin was due to his carrying pure independents and the growth in strong Democrats as opposed to strong Republicans. Both candidates …