Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Childlessness And Sibling Positioning In Upward Intergenerational Support: Insights From Singapore, Dahye Kim, Christine Ho, Bussarawan Teerawichitchainan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Objective:This brief report aims to explore the role of child-lessness and its interaction with sibling positioning (i.e., birthorder and gender) in upward intergenerational supportwithin the context of Asian familial and patrilineal values.Background:Despite the increasing rates of childlessnessin Asia, little is known about how childless individualsdeviate from or adhere to the patrilineal gendered prac-tices of supporting their older parents. Singapore, a rapidlyaging nation that emphasises Confucian familism valuesand patrilineal practices in guiding its welfare policies, pro-vides an ideal setting for this research investigation.\Method:We analysed a sample of 475 Singaporeans aged50 and above with at least one living parent from a recentnationwide …

Does Elite Quality Matter?, Alwyn Lim

Asian Management Insights

Yes, it can make or break a society. Elites are an inevitability in society. In recent years, emerging populist movements across different countries have highlighted stark problems with growing.

Estimating And Applying Autoregression Models Via Their Eigensystem Representation, Leo Krippner

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

This article introduces the eigensystem autoregression (EAR) framework, which allows an AR model to be speciÖed, estimated, and applied directly in terms of its eigenvalues and eigenvectors. An EAR estimation can therefore impose various constraints on AR dynamics that would not be possible within standard linear estimation. Examples are restricting eigenvalue magnitudes to control the rate of mean reversion, additionally imposing that eigenvalues be real and positive to avoid pronounced oscillatory behavior, and eliminating the possibility of explosive episodes in a time-varying AR. The EAR framework also produces closed-form AR forecasts and associated variances, and forecasts and data may be …

Where The World Is Heading In 2023 And Beyond, Simon Baptist

Asian Management Insights

The global economy is showing resilience, despite strong headwinds. Geopolitical uncertainty remains high, while the mounting threats from climate change call for more urgent global action.

Navigating Investor Expectations, Yong Hsin Ning, Yvette Lim

Asian Management Insights

Why start-ups need to speak the language of numbers.

The Livingston Survey 2023, S. Anderson, B. Bovino, M. Brown, Thomas Lam, Et Al

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The 15 participants in the June Livingston Survey predict higher output growth for the first half of 2023 than they predicted in the December 2022 survey. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, now project that the economy’s output (real GDP) will grow at an annual rate of 1.1 percent during the first half of 2023. They expect weaker conditions in the second half of 2023, when growth is expected to be at an annual rate of -0.7 percent. Both projections represent upward revisions from those of the December 2022 survey. Growth …

Survey Of Professional Forecasters 2023, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Forecasters Maintain Their Expectations for Growth in 2023 The forecasters see the U.S. economy in 2023 expanding at the same pace as they predicted three months ago, according to 38 panelists surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict annual-average over annualaverage growth in real GDP of 1.3 percent in 2023, unrevised from their estimate of three months ago. The panelists are also maintaining their forecast for growth in the second quarter at an annual rate of 1.0 percent, unchanged compared with their previous projection. However, while their predictions for the second quarter and for 2023 remain …

Real Estate Assets: To Build Or Not To Build?, Chaik Ming Koh

Asian Management Insights

It’s about when, not whether.

Robowealth: Boosting Financial Inclusion In Thailand, Chiraphol N. Chiyachantana, David K. Ding, Pattarawan Mai Prasarnphanich, Chi Wei Chan

Asian Management Insights

Advanced fintech lowers barriers to investing.

Assessing The Odds Of A Us Recession, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

In this commentary, SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) Principal Researcher Thomas Lam and SKBI Director SMU Professor of Finance (Practice) Dave Fernandez offer their perspectives on the current multifaceted and highly charged US recession debate. While America is currently not in a downturn, the near-term odds of one have edged up, according to models based on key monthly and weekly indicators.

Are Markets Interested In Adapting To Climate? Insights From Singapore, Stella Whittaker, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

We have collected the views of leading practitioners and academics in Singapore involved in funding and financing urban climate change adaptation1 (thereon referred to as urban adaptation). Throughout this paper we discuss several vital perspectives on adaptation financing, namely responsibility for adaptation investment, the extent of government adaptation investment, private sector adaptation investment appetite and prospects for experimentation in adaptation financing. We also attempt to shed light on the existence or not of an adaptation financing gap2 in Singapore.

Is Democracy Good For Growth? Development At Political Transition Time Matters, Di Sima, Fali Huang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Is democracy a better political regime for economic prosperity than autocracy? This paper shows that the answer depends on the initial economic development level during the democratic transition when the foundation of institutions was laid. Democracy facilitates growth only in countries that already have adequate development at transition time. These countries are more likely to create and sustain growth-enhancing institutions than others. Without appropriate development, democracy does not improve growth; this applies to about 40% of the third-wave democratized countries. These results are based on a sample of 153 countries in 1960–2010 and robust to various specifications and endogeneity issues.

Is Democracy Good For Growth? | Development At Political Transition Time Matters, Di Sima, Fali Huang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Is democracy a better political regime for economic prosperity than autocracy? This paper shows that the answer depends on the initial economic development level during the democratic transition when the foundation of institutions was laid. Democracy facilitates growth only in countries that already have adequate development at transition time. These countries are more likely to create and sustain growth-enhancing institutions than others. Without appropriate development, democracy does not improve growth; this applies to about 40% of the third-wave democratized countries. These results are based on a sample of 153 countries in 1960–2010 and robust to various specifications and endogeneity issues.

The Livingston Survey 2022, S. Anderson, B. Bovino, M. Brown, Thomas Lam, Et Al

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The 16 participants in the December Livingston Survey weakened their forecasts for real GDP growth, compared with their projections in the June 2022 survey. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, expect 2.0 percent annualized growth in real GDP during the second half of 2022. They project 0.4 percent annualized growth over the first half of 2023. The forecasters predict that real GDP will continue to decline and reach -1.0 percent annualized growth in the second half of 2023.

Encouraging Social Entrepreneurship, Kanyaporn Skutalakul

Asian Management Insights

It’s about taking the first steps.

Disentangling The Effects Of Gatt/Wto On Variable And Fixed Trade Costs: Trade Status, Trade Margins, And Export Sales Distribution, Pao-Li Chang, Renjing Chen, Wei Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we develop an estimation procedure to identify the partial (direct) effects of the GATT/WTO membership on the variable and the fixed trade cost, re-spectively. This extends the techniques of Anderson and Van Wincoop (2003) on the structural relationship of multilateral resistance terms and of Helpman, Melitz and Rubinstein (2008) on the structural modelling of trade incidence. We then develop a general equilibrium framework (that allows the presence of zero trade) to simulate the impact of variable, fixed, and total trade cost changes on the firm-level trade structure (including bilateral export productivity cutoff, weighted/unweighted extensive margin of export, …

Is Fed Policy In The Eye Of The Beholder?, Leo Krippner, Thomas Lam

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

While the US Federal Reserve remains vigilant on inflation, it will likely continue its tightening cycle with caution, with an eye on market expectations about future policy actions and financial conditions.

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 August, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The latest survey results on the largest five economies (Big5) were revised markedly relative to the prior release (pre-Russia-Ukraine conflict), generally indicating weaker growth and higher inflation coupled with incremental ambiguity on the policy front.

Three Essays On Development Economics And Human Capital, Arpita Khanna

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

In the first chapter, we estimate the impact of exposure to the 2015 Nepal Earthquake on intimate partner violence with two rounds of Demographic and Health Surveys data. Using differences-in-differences estimation, we find that exposure to the earthquake lead to a statistically and economically significant increase in intimate partner violence in the urban areas but not in the rural areas. This is possibly due to an increase in the stress felt by the victims. We also offer some evidence that the impact heterogeneity between the urban and rural areas is attributable to the differences in the reconstruction processes and assistance …

Growing A Mapletree, Hiew Yoon Khong

Perspectives@SMU

By focusing on recycling capital and re-seeding its portfolio, Singapore’s Mapletree Investments have moved beyond the island and into the global market

The Gatt/Wto Welfare Effects: 1950–2015, Pao-Li Chang, Wei Jin, Kefang Yao

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper evaluates the welfare effects of GATT/WTO-induced reductions in tariffs, vari-able and fixed trade costs, based on identified direct effects of membership indicators on trade flows via nonparametric matching estimations. The identification does not require the use of tariff data, which permits a comprehensive evaluation of the welfare impact of GATT/WTO for a long panel since its inception (1950–2015) of as many as 180 economies. The results indicate substantial (but highly dispersed) welfare gains across members of different development stages and increasing welfare losses of nonmembers in later decades by staying outside the system. An extensive set of robustness …

Geopolitics And Ballpark Estimates, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Most economist commenced 2022 with 3 key assumptions on the global economy:

1) Some policy normalisation and reversal, though cautious and uneven, are likely to occur in economies with above-average growth and inflation;

2) The Covid-19 infection wave, while presumably asymmetric and recurrent across countries, appears to have less of an imprint on cyclical activity on balance;

3) The lingering supply disruptions resulting from the pandemic, albeit still intense and widespread, should be easing gradually.

Bank, Stock Market Efficiency And Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence From Asean-5, Asia-5 And Oecd-7 Countries, Swee Liang Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper estimates bank and stock market efficiency associations with real per capita GDP growth by examining panel-data across three different regions using Beck-Katz Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) regression. It allows heteroskedastic and/or contemporaneously correlated disturbances across panels, with to specify a common first-order autocorrelation within the panel. The results suggest efficiency effects on growth is not unambiguous. The results suggest a threshold beyond which increase in bank overhead cost hurts economic growth, for developing countries. Likewise, there is a threshold beyond which increase in stock market turnover ratio hurts economic growth, for developed countries. One policy implication of the …

Apple And Foxconn: Addressing Power Imbalances In Global Supply Chains, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Global suppliers such as Foxconn can form strong business networks to put pressure on dominant clients such as Apple to address power imbalances in global supply chains

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 February, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The latest survey results on the largest five economies (Big5), based on submissions prior to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, imply a more intricate growth, inflation and policy dynamic.

Transitioning To A Circular Economy: A Systematic Review Of Its Drivers And Barriers, Jovan Tan, Fabien Jianwei Tan, Seeram Ramakrishna

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Advancing societal's progress to achieve circularity is imperative as our linear (take, make, waste) economic model is highly unsustainable. It depletes our natural resources and substantially contributes to pollution and global greenhouse gas emissions. Our continued participation in the linear economy will also expose businesses to volatile resource prices and supply disruptions resulting from the scarcity of critical materials and geopolitical factors. Hence, there are compelling reasons for businesses to transit and participate in the circular economy. However, anecdotal evidence suggests limited practical implementations. Therefore, this systematic review aims to determine the most significant drivers and barriers that influence business …

What, Why And How Financial Development Matters: Evidence Of Asean-5, Asia-5 And Oecd-7 Economies, Swee Liang Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper analysed the association between bank and capital markets financial development with income per capita in three regions; ASEAN-5 economies (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia), Asia-5 (Japan, China, Hong Kong SAR, South Korea and India) and OECD-7 (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, UK and US) covering the period from 2000 to 2017 using panel data analysis. Fixed effect regression models with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors to account for the problem of heteroskedastic and autocorrelated error structure are used. What ASEAN-5 can learn from Asia-5 and OECD-7 experience is that bank size does matter for Asia-5 and OECD-7 despite digital disruptions …

Economic Forecasting In An Epidemic: A Break From The Past?, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper aims to investigate whether the predictive ability and behaviour of professional forecasters are different during the Covid-19 epidemic as compared with the global financial crisis of 2008 and normal times. To this end, we utilise a survey of professional forecasters in Singapore collated by the central bank to analyse the forecasting record for GDP growth and CPI inflation. We first examine the point forecasts to document the extent of forecast failure in the pandemic crisis and test for behavioural explanations of the possible sources of forecast errors such as leader following and herding behaviour. Using percentile-based summary measures …

Tapping On Growth Opportunities Through Trade And Investment, Andy Feng, Gerald Foong, Geraldine Lim

Research Collection School Of Economics

As a small and open economy, external developments play a crucial role in shaping Singapore’s growth prospects. In particular, external demand is pivotal in supporting the growth of Singapore’s gross domestic product (GDP) beyond the limits afforded by a small domestic market. Furthermore, due to the resource constraints faced by Singapore, its production of goods and services to meet both external and domestic demand requires a substantial use of imported inputs. Apart from trade, Singapore’s openness and outward-orientation also extend to its embrace of inward and outward investments to grow its economy and create jobs for Singaporeans. In view of …

Urbanization Policy And Economic Development: A Quantitative Analysis Of China's Differential Hukou Reforms, Wen-Tai Hsu, Lin Ma

Research Collection School Of Economics

The household registration system (hukou system) in China has hampered rural-urban migration by posing large migration friction. The system has been gradually relaxed in the past few decades, but the reforms have been differential in city size. We find a striking contrast in migration patterns between years 2005 and 2015; rural people tended to move more to large cities in 2005, but more to small- and medium-sized cities in 2015. We calibrate a spatial quantitative model to the world economy in both years with China divided into rural, mega-city, and other-city regions. We find that alternative urbanization policies that are …