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Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™
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Articles 1 - 15 of 15
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Contracting Over Prices, Shurojit Chatterji, Sayantan Ghosal
Contracting Over Prices, Shurojit Chatterji, Sayantan Ghosal
Research Collection School Of Economics
We define a solution concept, perfectly contracted equilibrium, for an intertemporal exchange economy where agents are simultaneously price takers in spot commodity markets while engaging inefficient, non-Walrasian contracting over future prices. Without requiring that agents have perfect foresight, we show that perfectly contracted equilibrium outcomes are a subset of Pareto optimal allocations. It is a robust possibility for perfectly contracted equilibrium outcomes to differ from Arrow-Debreu equilibrium outcomes. We show that both centralized banking and retrading with bilateral contracting can lead to perfectly contracted equilibria.
Money And Asset Prices With Uninsurable Risks, Nicolas L. Jacquet, Serene Tan
Money And Asset Prices With Uninsurable Risks, Nicolas L. Jacquet, Serene Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a model where the coexistence of money and a higher yielding asset is endogenously obtained when no restriction is placed on the use of either object as a medium of exchange. Due to the presence of uninsurable risks, agents have, in equilibrium, di⁄erent relative valuations of the asset to money, and hence, the use of money as a means of payment is strictly preferred. This endogenous di⁄erence in the willingness of agents to use money over the asset implies that money carries a greater liquidity premium than the asset. We obtain that the asset strictly dominates money in …
Can Us Economic Variables Predict Chinese Stock Market?, Jeremy Goh, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Yuchen Wang
Can Us Economic Variables Predict Chinese Stock Market?, Jeremy Goh, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Yuchen Wang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In the last few decades, we observed a significant increase in global economic activities and these activities may have an impact on both China's economy and stock market. Given the potential impact, we empirically examine whether US economic variables are leading indicators of the Chinese stock market. Prior to China joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the end of 2001, we find no statistical relationship between US economic variables and the Chinese stock market returns. However, we find US economic variables have statistically significant predictive power for periods after China's admission into the WTO. In addition, we show that …
Foreign Direct Investment: Clearing The Infrastructure Bottlenecks, Kim Song Tan, Sim Yee Lau
Foreign Direct Investment: Clearing The Infrastructure Bottlenecks, Kim Song Tan, Sim Yee Lau
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market, Matthew S. Yiu, Jun Yu, Lu Jin
Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market, Matthew S. Yiu, Jun Yu, Lu Jin
Research Collection School Of Economics
This study uses a newly developed bubble detection method (Phillips, Shi and Yu, 2011) to identify real estate bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market. Our empirical results reveal several positive bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market, including one in 1995, a stronger one in 1997, another one in 2004, and a more recent one in 2008. In addition, the method identifies two negative bubbles in the data, one in 2000 and the other one in 2001. These empirical results continue to be valid for the mass segment and the luxury segment. However, the method finds a …
Nature Of Vix Jumps On Market Timing Of Hedge Funds, Yueh-Neng Lin, Choo Yong, Jeremy Goh
Nature Of Vix Jumps On Market Timing Of Hedge Funds, Yueh-Neng Lin, Choo Yong, Jeremy Goh
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The study indicates that Brownian motion, finite and infinite activity jumps are present in the ultra-high frequency VIX data. The total quadratic variation can be split into a continuous component of 29% and a jump component of 71%. Jump activities on ultra-high frequency VIX data are found informative in ex-ante identifying subgroups of hedge funds that deliver significant outperformance. In the months that follow large jumps, strategies exposing to long volatility and extreme risk tend to deliver positive performance in extreme market environments. In the months that follow small jumps, possibly as a result of trading illiquidity, most fund strategies …
Off The Cliff And Back? Credit Conditions And International Trade During The Global Financial Crisis, Davin Chor, Manova Kalina
Off The Cliff And Back? Credit Conditions And International Trade During The Global Financial Crisis, Davin Chor, Manova Kalina
Research Collection School Of Economics
We examine the collapse of international trade flows during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis using detailed data on the evolution of monthly U.S. imports over the November 2006 - April 2009 period. We show that credit constraints and the reduction in the availability of external capital were an important channel through which the crisis affected trade volumes. We identify the effects of credit tightening by exploiting the variation in the cost of capital across countries and over time, as well as the variation in financial dependence across sectors. We find that countries with higher interbank interest rates and thus tighter …
Out Of Sight, Out Of Mind: The Value Of Political Connections In Social Networks, Quoc-Anh Do, Yen Teik Lee, Bang Dang Nguyen, Kieu-Trang Nguyen
Out Of Sight, Out Of Mind: The Value Of Political Connections In Social Networks, Quoc-Anh Do, Yen Teik Lee, Bang Dang Nguyen, Kieu-Trang Nguyen
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper investigates the impact of social-network based political connections on firm value. We focus on the networks of university classmates and alumni among directors of U.S. public firms and congressmen. Comparing firms connected to elected versus defeated politicians in the Regression Discontinuity Design of close elections from 2000 to 2008, we provide evidence that political connections enhance firm value. However, the value of political connections varies in a more complex way than expected. While connections to powerful members of the Senate generate strong positive impact on firm value, connections to newly elected congressmen are less valuable to firms than …
Markowitz 2.0: Innovations For Asset Allocation, Singapore Management University
Markowitz 2.0: Innovations For Asset Allocation, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
The economic wreckage from the 2008 global financial crisis dealt a blow to the theoretical foundations of finance and economic. Many of these theories, such as Markowitz’s Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), were considered received wisdom and taught in practically all business schools. But now they appeared inadequate to the task of handling the “fat-tails” and “black swans” of extreme market events. These crashes were also occurring far more often than predicted by these theories.
Bayesian Hypothesis Testing In Latent Variable Models, Yong Li, Jun Yu
Bayesian Hypothesis Testing In Latent Variable Models, Yong Li, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
Hypothesis testing using Bayes factors (BFs) is known not to be well defined under the improper prior. In the context of latent variable models, an additional problem with BFs is that they are difficult to compute. In this paper, a new Bayesian method, based on the decision theory and the EM algorithm, is introduced to test a point hypothesis in latent variable models. The new statistic is a by-product of the Bayesian MCMC output and, hence, easy to compute. It is shown that the new statistic is appropriately defined under improper priors because the method employs a continuous loss function. …
Micro-Finance Competition With Motivated Mfis, Brishti Guha, Prabal Roy Chowdhury
Micro-Finance Competition With Motivated Mfis, Brishti Guha, Prabal Roy Chowdhury
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper we examine the effect of increased MFI competition, focusing on its implications for borrower targeting, both in the presence and the absence of double-dipping. In the absence of competition we find that the loans are more likely to go to relatively richer borrowers whenever inequality is not too large, and the technology is sufficiently convex. In the presence of competition, the results depend on whether double-dipping is feasible or not. In case double-dipping is not feasible, we find that the MFIs necessarily target the richer borrowers. Interestingly, it turns out that double-dipping may encourage the MFIs to …
Beyond Catch-Up To New Growth Sources, Hian Teck Hoon
Beyond Catch-Up To New Growth Sources, Hian Teck Hoon
Research Collection School Of Economics
SMU Professor of Economics Hoon Hian Teck gave his take on the impact of the Budget announced last Friday and wrote that the 2012 Budget, in essence, recognises that Singapore is now making a transition from a phase of catch-up growth to being a mature economy. In this mature phase, Singapore needs new sources of growth, and policy interventions are necessary to boost the employability and wage earnings of low-wage and older workers. Professor Hoon is also Associate Dean at the SMU School of Economics.
Risk Management In A Volatile Market, Singapore Management University
Risk Management In A Volatile Market, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
As stock markets around the world whipsaw in a manner that bewilders even the seasoned trader, an academic has suggested for financial institutions to look more closely at linking dynamic loss tail distributions to contagion modeling for effective risk management.
Technical Analysis: An Asian Perspective, Siqin Liaw
Technical Analysis: An Asian Perspective, Siqin Liaw
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
Technical analysis, namely the moving average rule and the channel rule, is applied to the currency of an Asian managed floating exchange rate regime (USD/SGD) to see if opportunities for profitable trading exist. Instead of using only daily or monthly data, higher frequency time frames of 10, 15, 30 and 60 minutes are analyzed. Profitable strategies (if any) will be broken down and analyzed within smaller time frames to see if the profits are specifically in sample.
What Are Analysts Really Good At?, Ohad Kadan, Leonardo Madureira, Rong Wang, Tzachi. Zach
What Are Analysts Really Good At?, Ohad Kadan, Leonardo Madureira, Rong Wang, Tzachi. Zach
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Sell-side analysts employ different benchmarks when defining their stock recommendations. Forexample, a ‘buy’ for some brokers means the stock is expected to outperform its peers in the same sector(“industry benchmarkers”), while for other brokers it means the stock is expected to outperform themarket (“market benchmarkers”), or just some absolute return (“total benchmarkers”). We use thesebenchmarks to analyze the role of stock picking, industry picking and market timing in contributing to theperformance of stock recommendations. We are able to do so given that different benchmarks suggest theuse of different sets of abilities. Analysis of the relation between analysts’ recommendations and theirlong-term …