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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Leveraged Buyouts: The Predictive Power Of Target Firm Characteristics, Yutao (James) Jiang Jan 2019

Leveraged Buyouts: The Predictive Power Of Target Firm Characteristics, Yutao (James) Jiang

CMC Senior Theses

This paper utilizes a hazard model to predict the probability of leveraged buyout transactions for public firms. Rather than testing specific hypotheses, this paper incorporates all plausible predictors identified in existing literature to better delineate the effects of different characteristics. Largely confirming past results, I find that LBO transactions are more likely to occur for companies with more stable cash flows, less market visibility, lower market valuation, lower ownership concentration and lower costs of financial distress. By including LBO transactions from 1980 to September 2018, I find preliminary evidence that since the financial crisis of 2008 – 2009, private equity firms ...


M&A Performance: Market’S Initial Reaction As An Unbiased Indicator Of Post-Acquisition Performance, Nikolaos Papageorgiou Jan 2019

M&A Performance: Market’S Initial Reaction As An Unbiased Indicator Of Post-Acquisition Performance, Nikolaos Papageorgiou

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the reliability of the stock market’s initial reaction to M&A announcements as a predictor of actual post-acquisition performance. The two prevailing methods for evaluating M&A performance are event studies (stock market-based measures) and accounting-based measures. The present study combines these two performance evaluation approaches in a single empirical examination. Both the post-merger buy-and-hold abnormal returns and changes in ROA are used as actual post-acquisition performance variables. The acquirer’s cumulative abnormal return (CAR) around the announcement is used as the market predictor variable. An econometric model is employed to test the predictive power of ...


What Do We Know About The Recent Performance Of Indian Banks?, Laira Aggarwal Jan 2019

What Do We Know About The Recent Performance Of Indian Banks?, Laira Aggarwal

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the performance of Indian banks by studying the effects of recent reforms and macroeconomic events. Indian banks went through a period of reforms in the past twenty years. The impact of these reforms and major macroeconomic events has been examined using time-series analysis. Event studies offer additional perspective on the short-run effect of the events on different types of Indian banks. Although, the event dates are not all statistically significant in the time-series regressions, the demonetization of 2016 is significant in the event study analysis. Thus, while reforms and events have immediate impact on the performance of ...


Modeling Returns On Carbon Emission Allowances: An Application To Rggi, James Keneally Jan 2019

Modeling Returns On Carbon Emission Allowances: An Application To Rggi, James Keneally

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis attempts to model the returns on Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) allowances using logged monthly returns from 2011-2018. This asset, shown to be a useful diversifier in portfolios, has been identified by previous literature to behave similarly to commodities. I used auto-regressive, GARCH, and Markov regime switching models to analyze the returns because the returns displayed changing volatility. These models were comparatively analyzed both in and out-of-sample. In this limited data analysis, the Markov model outperformed both alternatives in-sample. The Markov and Garch models displayed similar predictive power out-of-sample, however neither were particularly effective.


Are Cds Auctions The Tail Wagging The Dog? An Empirical Study Of Corporate Bond Return Volatility At The Time Of Default, Jennifer Mace Jan 2019

Are Cds Auctions The Tail Wagging The Dog? An Empirical Study Of Corporate Bond Return Volatility At The Time Of Default, Jennifer Mace

CMC Senior Theses

Over the past decade, numerous engineered credit events and cases of market participants manipulating bond prices to influence Credit Default Swap (CDS) auction payouts have occurred. These cases have become increasingly common, and the CFTC has stated they may constitute market manipulation and undermine not only the CDS market but also the credit derivative and default markets. Although there is a plethora of news and media coverage on publicized cases, there is no previous empirical research on evidence of these practices. This paper is motivated by the desire to determine if there is indirect evidence of bond price manipulation around ...


The Fall Of The 10-K Report: Measuring The Impact Of Accounting Ratios On Financial Performance, Matthew Daruty Jan 2019

The Fall Of The 10-K Report: Measuring The Impact Of Accounting Ratios On Financial Performance, Matthew Daruty

CMC Senior Theses

The annual 10-K report has historically been the most important aspect in assessing the position of a publicly held company. However, as the flow of information has increased with the dawn of new technologies, less and less attention has been paid to these audited financial statements. In order to assess if investors are still reacting to the information contained in the annual report, this paper examines the relationship between accounting ratios and stock price in banks traded on United States stock exchanges. By examining accounting ratios instead of simply looking at Earnings Per Share, new information was revealed regarding what ...


You Can Run But You Can’T Hide: The Advance Of Shareholder Activism, Kendall Greenberg Jan 2018

You Can Run But You Can’T Hide: The Advance Of Shareholder Activism, Kendall Greenberg

CMC Senior Theses

Shareholder activism has exploded in popularity since the turn of the century, due in large part to impressive relative returns generated by its major participants. The result has thus been a surge in assets invested in the category, to in excess of $170 billion today up from less than $3 billion in 2000 (Inglis 2015; Romito 2015). This influx of capital, in absolute dollars and pace of growth, has caused many to wonder whether activists truly create shareholder value and, if so, if the value generated is sustainable. Numerous studies of activist interventions prior to 2009 reveal significant stock price ...


The Effect Of The Change In Call Loan Rates And Volatility On Stock Returns In 1929: An Empirical Study Into A Determinant Of The Great Depression, Amberish Chitre Jan 2018

The Effect Of The Change In Call Loan Rates And Volatility On Stock Returns In 1929: An Empirical Study Into A Determinant Of The Great Depression, Amberish Chitre

CMC Senior Theses

I investigate the effect of the change in call loan rates on stock returns during 1929. Call loan rates are the interest rates on borrowed funds to trade equity on a given exchange. It is estimated that 40% of stocks during this period were bought on margin. After a price decline comes a margin call, followed by a forced sales of securities, which leads to additional margin calls and future price declines. I regress daily excess returns on the change in daily call loan rates during 1929. In addition, I estimate volatility using an ARCH model and observe the previously ...


Returns To Buying Winners And Selling Losers: A Look At Cryptocurrencies, Daniel Walker Jan 2018

Returns To Buying Winners And Selling Losers: A Look At Cryptocurrencies, Daniel Walker

CMC Senior Theses

This paper is, to my knowledge, one of the first ever to examine the effectiveness of price momentum trading strategies applied to cryptocurrencies. Using aggregate OHLCV (Open, High, Low, Close, Volume) data on cryptocurrency pairs from Poloniex, Bittrex, and Bitfinex, I apply Jegadeesh and Titman’s classic -month/-month momentum trading strategy, reporting annual returns with and without incorporating trading fees. Portfolios are resampled daily, weekly, and monthly, testing lookback and holding periods ranging from one day to one year. The results show that trading cryptocurrencies using momentum strategies derives returns that rapidly increase the more often portfolios are resampled ...


Are Volatility Expectations In Different Countries Interdependent? A Data-Driven Solution To Structural Var Identification For Implied Equity Volatility Indices, Timothy H. De Silva Jan 2018

Are Volatility Expectations In Different Countries Interdependent? A Data-Driven Solution To Structural Var Identification For Implied Equity Volatility Indices, Timothy H. De Silva

CMC Senior Theses

Over the past couple of decades, the number of volatility indices has increased rapidly. These indices seek to represent the market’s expectation of realized volatility over the coming month, based on the prices of options traded on each underlying equity index. Although the dynamics of realized volatility spillover have been studied extensively, very few studies exists that examine the spillover between these volatility indices. By using DAG-based structural vector autoregression, this paper provides evidence that implied volatility spillover differs from realized volatility spillover. Through solving the well-known VAR identification problem for these indices, this paper finds that Asia, more ...


Ipo Underpricing And Insider Wealth Maximization In Internet Firms, Bhavika Booragadda Jan 2018

Ipo Underpricing And Insider Wealth Maximization In Internet Firms, Bhavika Booragadda

CMC Senior Theses

This paper empirically tests the theoretical model developed by Aggarwal, Krigman and Womack (2001), which argues that insiders of a firm strategically underprice its initial public offering to maximize personal wealth by selling shares at lockup expiration. First day underpricing generates information momentum for the stock in terms of increased research coverage and recommendations by analysts. Increased research coverage is positively correlated with stock returns and insider selling at the end of the lockup period. Although the value of the stock should be typically based on discounted expected future cash flows, several empirical papers suggest a downward sloping demand curves ...


Australian Real Estate Stock Reactions To Firb Regulation Changes, Henry Wei Jan 2017

Australian Real Estate Stock Reactions To Firb Regulation Changes, Henry Wei

CMC Senior Theses

This study analyzes the share price reactions to real estate development and building/construction materials corporations in relation to FIRB rule changes. It appears companies as a whole were indifferent to the rule changes; however individual securities returns were wildly different. These findings suggest that the FIRB rule changes had a mixed effect on different corporations possibly based on their exposure to the Australian real estate market.


The Real Estate And Stock Market During The Great Depression: Construction Permit Growth As A Leading Economic Indicator For Stock Returns, Will Cresap Jan 2017

The Real Estate And Stock Market During The Great Depression: Construction Permit Growth As A Leading Economic Indicator For Stock Returns, Will Cresap

CMC Senior Theses

The 1929 stock market crash on Black Thursday, followed by the subsequent four-year period of extreme economic downturn, signifies an extremely profound piece of U.S. history. During this time, global economic productivity – measured by GDP – decreased while the U.S. unemployment rate increased staggeringly. Leveraging construction permits as a forward-looking measure of economic activity, I empirically evaluate the effect of construction permits – specifically, the lagged growth rate of monthly construction permits – and lagged monthly stock returns on monthly Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock returns. Lagged construction permit returns and lagged stock returns provide early indications (i ...


Is Silence The Answer?, Gator Adams Jan 2017

Is Silence The Answer?, Gator Adams

CMC Senior Theses

This study examines the relationship between company management guidance, and ex-ante crash risk over the duration of 2008(Jan 2006-Dec 2009) financial crisis using the implied volatility skew, which is based upon ex-ante volatility implied by the pricing model developed by Black-Scholes (1973). The study finds that over the duration of this crisis period, management guidance decreases with a rise in ex-ante crash risk. Further, the study provides evidence on the relationship of management guidance and earnings volatility, and how that is affected by a firm's industry product concentration based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) score.


Does Fundamental Analysis Lead To A Rudimentary Momentum Strategy For The Inexperienced Investor? Evidence From A Student Investment Fund, Nicholas J. Lillie Jan 2017

Does Fundamental Analysis Lead To A Rudimentary Momentum Strategy For The Inexperienced Investor? Evidence From A Student Investment Fund, Nicholas J. Lillie

CMC Senior Theses

Using the Student Investment Fund at Claremont McKenna College as a proxy for inexperienced investors, I demonstrate that inexperienced investors using fundamental analysis produce momentum-like buying patterns. The results show that the Student Investment Fund is on average buying stocks that outperform Carhart’s four-factor asset pricing model in the year before purchase. As a result, the Student Investment Fund has, on average, underperformed the S&P500 by .48% per year since 1996. My thesis explores why the Student Investment Fund may have adopted momentum-like purchasing patterns and what steps can be taken to remedy it.


A Re-Examination Of Rating Shopping And Catering Using Post-Crisis Data On Cdos, Robert H. Owlett Jan 2016

A Re-Examination Of Rating Shopping And Catering Using Post-Crisis Data On Cdos, Robert H. Owlett

CMC Senior Theses

I re-examine “rating shopping” and “rating catering” in the market for AAA rated collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) by replicating the study of Griffin and Tang (2013) using post-crisis data. I find a sharp increase in the amount of CDOs that received a single rating, suggesting that CDO underwriters were more cautious about formally soliciting multiple ratings. However, I also find a decrease in AAA rating disagreements between S&P and Moody’s, implying that issuers shopped their CDOs through informal conversations with agencies. Finally, I find investors correctly accepted tighter credit spreads for dual-rated CDOs because dual-rated CDOs experienced fewer ...


A Critical Examination Of Oil Wealth Management Strategies And Their Effects On Economic Growth In The Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, Caroline J. Belmont Jan 2016

A Critical Examination Of Oil Wealth Management Strategies And Their Effects On Economic Growth In The Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, Caroline J. Belmont

CMC Senior Theses

Despite their natural resources, the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman) have failed to live up to their economic potential, primarily due to their dependence on a revenue source with volatile prices and political significance in an unstable region. This thesis argues that the best way to convert oil wealth into consistent long term growth is through diversification, both by investing in foreign assets and by growing domestic sectors that are independent from oil and gas prices. The research further investigates the primary tool these countries have used to ...


An Event Study Analysis Of American Bank Holding Company Equity Returns Upon Basel Iii Announcement, Brian R. Delaney Jan 2016

An Event Study Analysis Of American Bank Holding Company Equity Returns Upon Basel Iii Announcement, Brian R. Delaney

CMC Senior Theses

This study examines the trading activity of a large cross section of American bank holding companies upon various sub-events associated with the introduction of Basel III. An event study methodology was applied to various sub-composite portfolios, as determined by regulatory capitalization and leverage ratios. The results suggest that statically significant abnormal negative returns occurred on the announcement to negotiate due to heightened regulatory uncertainty, especially amongst the least capitalized and highest leveraged banks. However, this effect is complemented by statically significant positive returns upon the release of the initial guidelines. Reactions to subsequent events report to be less significant.


The Effects Of The 1933 Bank Holiday And The Emergency Banking Act Of 1933 On The Systematic Risks Of Various Industries, James E. Ingram Jan 2016

The Effects Of The 1933 Bank Holiday And The Emergency Banking Act Of 1933 On The Systematic Risks Of Various Industries, James E. Ingram

CMC Senior Theses

Utilizing the industry portfolio classifications that Fama and French provide in their data library, I analyze the specific effects that the 1933 Bank Holiday has on various industries. My empirical results go beyond what Silber (2009) determines to be significantly positive abnormal market returns on March 15, 1933, which is the day after the Bank Holiday and the largest ever one-day increase in the stock market. I use the CAPM and the Fama-French 3-factor Model to find significant systematic risk decreases after the Bank Holiday in the Coal and Transportation industries, as well as systematic risk increases in Consumer Goods ...


Reverse Line Movements In Nfl Gambling: Parallels To Financial Market Biases And The Imitation Of Informed Bettor Strategies, Philip S. Crawford Jan 2015

Reverse Line Movements In Nfl Gambling: Parallels To Financial Market Biases And The Imitation Of Informed Bettor Strategies, Philip S. Crawford

CMC Senior Theses

Participants in the NFL gambling market can largely be divided into two distinct groups: informed bettors (“Sharps”) and uninformed bettors (“Squares”). Empirical and anecdotal evidence suggest that the dynamic between Sharp and Square bettors is very similar to that between institutional and retail investors. Professionals tend to be far better informed and utilize rational betting/investing strategies while individuals exhibit biases which perpetuate irrational strategies and therefore pricing inefficiencies. This study finds that uninformed participants in financial markets and the NFL betting market do share similar biases, and that these biases can be exploited by informed participants to generate positive ...


Promoting Bold Investment In Renewable Energy Research And Development, Melanie C. Paty Jan 2015

Promoting Bold Investment In Renewable Energy Research And Development, Melanie C. Paty

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis discusses the potential for private investment to fund ambitious renewable energy research and development to help mitigate climate change. I begin by discussing the threat of global warming and a brief history of renewable energy development in the United States. Next, I discuss existing avenues for private investment in renewable energy, potential methods of increasing corporate participation, and the belief that businesses must maximize only financial profits. Then I perform an in-depth case study of pension funds that have incorporated a social or environmental mission, existing environmentally focused mutual funds, and liquidated clean energy mutual funds. Finally, I ...


Bitcoin: Is Cryptocurrency Viable?, Austin Hill Jan 2014

Bitcoin: Is Cryptocurrency Viable?, Austin Hill

CMC Senior Theses

Bitcoin, a virtual currency invented in 2009, was created as a peer-to-peer currency that eliminated the need for a third party authority, such as banks or government, to be involved in monetary transactions. Having no intrinsic value but carrying no government guarantees relegates bitcoin and its competitors to the perpetual role of investment opportunity, deriving value not from a practical use, but from a nominal, dollar value. This will continue to be the case until the U.S. Government sanctions virtual currency as a viable store of value. Because the dollar plays such a large role in the world’s ...


Determinants Of Public Funding For Professional Athletic Venues, John K. Holland Jan 2014

Determinants Of Public Funding For Professional Athletic Venues, John K. Holland

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the financing of professional athletic venues and why certain franchises are able to obtain high percentages of overall stadium funding from the public. Existing literature shows the negligible effect of new athletic venues on the local economy and per capita income, and therefore the benefits from such a project are largely intangible. I use an ordinary least squares regression and show that the more successful a team is the less public funding they tend to receive. I also find that broad city statistics do not represent the specific areas that policy makers consider when making decisions about ...


The Rise Of Private Equity In China: A Case Study Of Successful And Failed Foreign Private Equity Investments, June Kim Jan 2014

The Rise Of Private Equity In China: A Case Study Of Successful And Failed Foreign Private Equity Investments, June Kim

CMC Senior Theses

China's transition from a planned economy to a market economy has brought about remarkably rapid economic growth. Year after year, China boasted of double-digit growth rates since the early 1990s. Attracted by China's so-called "economic miracle," foreign investors began entering the Chinese market hoping to benefit from the country's vast array of financial opportunities. Private equity, particularly a leveraged buyout, was an unfamiliar concept in China until late 1990s. Now China has become the most attractive destination among emerging markets for private equity investment. Global private equity firms are currently raising billions of dollars for funds focusing ...


The Liberalization Of Shibor And The Economic Fundamentals Of House Price Growth In China, Michael J. Mavredakis Jan 2014

The Liberalization Of Shibor And The Economic Fundamentals Of House Price Growth In China, Michael J. Mavredakis

CMC Senior Theses

This paper uses data collected from the National Interbank Funding Center of China, the People’s Bank of China, the National Bureau of Statistics, and Bloomberg starting in October 2006 through 2013 to test the economic fundamental’s affecting the housing market in Shanghai, particularly interest rates. This study finds that the 6- month duration Shibor has a negative and significant correlation with house price growth in Shanghai when lagged 4 months. The analysis continues by examining other economic fundamentals affecting house price growth, finding growth in inflation, the money supply and Shanghai real estate investment to have significant, positive ...


The Deadweight Loss Of Equity-Based Compensation, Jessica Pence Jan 2014

The Deadweight Loss Of Equity-Based Compensation, Jessica Pence

CMC Senior Theses

In order to maximize shareholder value, firms attempt to align the incentives of the executives with those of the shareholders by giving them equity as a portion of their compensation package. The terms associated with this equity compensation forces the executives to hold undiversified portfolios, resulting in a sizeable deadweight loss. This paper uses the formula developed by Meulbroek (2001)1 to calculate the dollar value of this deadweight loss, in order to quantify the costs associated with equity-based compensation. We find that the 56 executives in our data set have a combined deadweight loss of $70 billion, and that ...


Mergers & Abenomics: The Determinants Of M&A In Japan's New Economy, Ethan S. Hallberg Jan 2014

Mergers & Abenomics: The Determinants Of M&A In Japan's New Economy, Ethan S. Hallberg

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the influence of various macroeconomic variables on Japan’s merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, both in terms of total deal value and total number of deals. Looking at monthly data from June 1997 to December 2013, I use econometric time-series analysis to find that: First, total deal value per month is not well explained by our macroeconomic variables, but about half of the variation in number of deals per month can be explained by our dataset. Second, the most important determinant in the total number of deals per month during our period is the level of ...


An Examination Of The Interest Rate Sensitivity Of Business Development Company (Bdc) Stock Returns, Timothy Park Jan 2013

An Examination Of The Interest Rate Sensitivity Of Business Development Company (Bdc) Stock Returns, Timothy Park

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the interest rate sensitivity of Business Development Companies (BDCs). The results of this study are intended to lend insight to investors about the viability and timing of investments in BDCs during the business cycle. Similar to previous research that has examined interest rate sensitivity of financial companies, this paper employs a two-factor market model to see whether BDCs are responsive to changes in short, medium, and long-term interest rates. My particular interest in BDCs is motivated by their unique asset-liability structure and requirements, as well as their high dividend payouts. Monthly data is drawn from the period ...


The Price Discounts Of Chinese Cross-Listed Companies And Their Variation Across Sectors, Tom Guo Jan 2013

The Price Discounts Of Chinese Cross-Listed Companies And Their Variation Across Sectors, Tom Guo

CMC Senior Theses

This study builds on the paper by Arquette, Brown, and Burdekin (2008) and asks whether the factors which they find to be significant in influencing the differential between the share prices of Chinese securities traded on their home market in Shanghai versus share prices observed offshore in Hong Kong and New York have varying degrees of influence when compared across industries. This paper focuses on Chinese companies listed on both the Shanghai and Hong Kong Stock Exchanges and finds that the proxy variables of expected exchange rate change, relative market sentiment, and relative company sentiment are significant in determining the ...


The Effect Of Executive Compensation On Firm Performance Through The Dot-Com Bubble, Maxwell J. Chambers Jan 2012

The Effect Of Executive Compensation On Firm Performance Through The Dot-Com Bubble, Maxwell J. Chambers

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines firm performance through the dot-com bubble through the lens of executive compensation. Hypotheses based on the theoretical literature of Bolton, Scheinkman and Xiong (2006) as well as Bertrand and Mullainathan (2001) in regards to management compensation in a speculative bubble motivate three regression models with differing market-cap-growth based dependent variables and specific compensation variables. Regression analyses test the models using public compensation and security data from S&P's Execucomp and Compustat databases. Synthesizing regression results show that stock option vesting schedules and executives' status on the board of directors may significantly affect firm performance through the ...