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Articles 1 - 30 of 89
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Capturing Value In Emerging Markets: A Real Options Perspective On Resilience And Risk, Alexander Castillo
Capturing Value In Emerging Markets: A Real Options Perspective On Resilience And Risk, Alexander Castillo
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines the evaluation of investment opportunities in emerging markets (EMs) through real options analysis, against the backdrop of their unique risk profiles and the recent trend of EMs exhibiting resilience in economic performance. While EMs are associated with high growth rates and infrastructure gaps, they have shown adaptability, particularly in monetary policy responses to inflation. This paper explores the sensitivity of net present value (NPV) and real options (RO) to changes in the capital asset pricing model, adapting the yield spread to capture default risk and local risk-free rates. Utilizing oil benchmark price data, the paper constructs a …
Is Green The New Gold? Esg’S Influence On The Financial Performance Of The Energy And Mining Industries, Alexa De Vegvar
Is Green The New Gold? Esg’S Influence On The Financial Performance Of The Energy And Mining Industries, Alexa De Vegvar
CMC Senior Theses
The demand for Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG) reporting has increased in recent years. As the concern for climate change has moved to the forefront of the investment process, companies have needed to prioritize ESG in their operations. Previous literature addresses how ESG has benefited companies’ financial performance and increased shareholder value. The pandemic has proven to have positively impacted ESG reporting as social priorities shifted. However, studies have also shown that ESG reporting is too ambiguous to concretely display any relationship with financial performance. This thesis will analyze the impact of ESG and environmental data reporting on the Return …
More Than A Feeling: Exploring The Drivers Of Music Catalog Values, Emily Nutting
More Than A Feeling: Exploring The Drivers Of Music Catalog Values, Emily Nutting
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines which characteristics of songs affect transaction price in the sale of artist’s music catalogs. My analysis tests many variables, including the number of years between the song’s release its catalog’s sale (age); the natural log of the number of Spotify streams the song has (popularity); the genre of the song; themes in the song, such as dating, violence, romance, obscenity, sadness, and feelings; and elements of the song like danceability, energy, loudness, instrumentalness (the prevalence of instrumentals relative to vocals in a song), and acousticness (the measure of sound made using instruments as opposed to electronic means). …
Optimal Portfolio Construction For Oil-Based Sovereign Wealth Funds, Mohammed Saeed Alshowaikhat
Optimal Portfolio Construction For Oil-Based Sovereign Wealth Funds, Mohammed Saeed Alshowaikhat
CGU Theses & Dissertations
Chapter 1 of this dissertation delves into the economic challenges faced by oil-exporting countries that rely heavily on a single income source, with a particular focus on Saudi Arabia as a case study. The primary objective is to examine the efforts of Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund in diversifying revenue streams and mitigating risks associated with an excessive dependence on oil. To achieve this, the study proposes an adaptation of the subset-optimization algorithm within the mean-variance model, aiming to enhance portfolio construction in sovereign wealth funds. Chapter 2 of the dissertation conducts a comparative analysis between portfolios constructed using the …
Application Of Sentiment Analysis And Machine Learning Techniques To Predict Daily Cryptocurrency Price Returns, Edward Wu
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines the effects of social media sentiment relating to Bitcoin on the daily price returns of Bitcoin and other popular cryptocurrencies by utilizing sentiment analysis and machine learning techniques to predict daily price returns. Many investors think that social media sentiment affects cryptocurrency prices. However, the results of this paper find that social media sentiment relating to Bitcoin does not add significant predictive value to forecasting daily price returns for each of the six cryptocurrencies used for analysis and that machine learning models that do not assume linearity between the current day price return and previous daily price …
Did Demonetization Have A Bigger Impact On Ppis (Prepaid Payment Instruments) Or Mobile Banking In India?, Ansh Vora
CMC Senior Theses
On November 8, 2016, Narendra Modi, prime minister of India, tele-advertised the entire nation and announced that India's highest value banknotes, the 500 and 1000 rupee “Rs” notes would be demonetized and taken out of circulation, effective midnight. Modi stated that this is an effort to reduce the large economy of black money, transition India into a digital economy, abolish funding of terrorist groups and illicit circulation of counterfeit notes. In this study, I choose to analyze the impact of demonetization on two digital payment methods - Prepaid Payment Instruments, “PPI” and Mobile Banking. The data used in this study …
Esg Scores As A Measure Of Risk: The Relationship Between Environmental, Social, And Corporate Governance Ratings And The Financial Performance Of U.S. Oil And Gas Companies, Lauren Kim
Scripps Senior Theses
This study investigates the association between ESG (environmental, social, corporate governance) scores on the financial performance of U.S. oil and gas companies, an industry facing significant ESG-related pressures. ESG scores evaluate a firm’s environmental impacts, social responsibility, and corporate governance practices and can be used as a form of evaluating a firm’s risk mitigation efforts. However, there is not sufficient evidence to conclude that there exists a relationship, positive or negative, between ESG scores and firm performance in this industry. Overall, the findings of this study highlight the growing interest in ESG investing and is useful for investors and firms …
A Study On Bangladesh's Grameen Bank And The Ready-Made Garment Industry: The Effects Of Rising Industrialization On The Reliance Of Microfinance, Elaine Yang
Scripps Senior Theses
Microfinance institutions offered a solution to borrowing to the ultra-poor through a group lending scheme where social capital drove repayment rates. In Bangladesh, the Grameen Bank was globally recognized as a successful microfinance institution, increasing financial literacy and mobility to the ultra-poor. Tangentially, the ready-made garment industry boomed in some districts with a Grameen Bank presence, while other districts were not impacted at all. Using a difference-in-difference regression model and focusing on the Grameen Bank districts before and after their exposure to the RMG industry on the number of branches, branch members, outstanding loan amount, and zone membership percentage of …
Private Equity – The Rescue Or Destruction Of Financially Distressed Investments, Alex Wilson
Private Equity – The Rescue Or Destruction Of Financially Distressed Investments, Alex Wilson
CMC Senior Theses
This paper investigates the effect PE-backing has on portfolio companies in financial distress. Inspired by the more recent questioning of the morality of the Private Equity industry, this paper analyzes the change in financial health after a PE buyout transaction and directly compares that of financially distressed firms during the same time period that were not PE-backed. This study utilizes a dataset made up of financially distressed, public US firms as of 2009, and assesses the change in Z-score ~10 years after PE investment to determine whether PE-backing has an effect on the change in financial health. The negative coefficient …
Liquidity Outbreak: A 49 Country Analysis Of The Money Supply’S Effect On Stock Markets During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Dylan Porter
Liquidity Outbreak: A 49 Country Analysis Of The Money Supply’S Effect On Stock Markets During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Dylan Porter
CMC Senior Theses
This paper compares the effects of monthly money growth on monthly stock market performance in 49 countries around the world before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Countries are grouped in aggregate, by continent, and development status. OLS panel regressions show that lagged monetary growth variables are better monetary indicators of stock market performance than contemporaneous values. Variables that measure the pandemic’s progress (infections/deaths and government responses) are included alongside macro-economic variables but are seldom significant. Monetary growth had less correlation with the stock market during the pre-pandemic period (January 2018 - December 2020), suggesting that the uncertain economic conditions of …
Nft-Related Companies: Token Sale Returns, Robert Liu
Nft-Related Companies: Token Sale Returns, Robert Liu
CMC Senior Theses
Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have emerged as a new means of digital asset ownership and many companies are building projects that revolve around the technology. These companies are blockchain-based and raise capital for their projects through cryptocurrency token sales, which have become a new mechanism of entrepreneurial finance. In a sample of 62 NFT-related companies, I examine which company, fundraising, and token sale process characteristics are associated with the performance of 7-day and 60-day market returns after a token’s public listing. A multivariate regression analysis finds that the total amount of capital raised before a token launch has a negative relationship …
The Rising Power Of The Individual Investor: How Social Media Sentiments And User Activity Impact Stock Price Volatility And Trading Volume, Nandini Jayaram
The Rising Power Of The Individual Investor: How Social Media Sentiments And User Activity Impact Stock Price Volatility And Trading Volume, Nandini Jayaram
CMC Senior Theses
This paper investigates the relationship between social media sentiments and user activity on the ability of online platforms like Robinhood, Reddit, and Twitter to drive volatility in stock returns and trading volume of shares. The research contributes to the existing literature by studying the potential power of social media communities to influence the stock market parameters. The dataset includes information for several stocks of daily Robinhood users, mentions in r/wallstreetbets, number of Twitter followers, as well as closing price and trading volume data. Using a fixed effects panel data model, the regressions yield statistically significant results that indicate higher WallStreetBets …
An Exponential Formula For Random Variables Generated By Multiple Brownian Motions, Maximilian Lawrence Baroi
An Exponential Formula For Random Variables Generated By Multiple Brownian Motions, Maximilian Lawrence Baroi
CGU Theses & Dissertations
The frozen operator has been used to develop Dyson-series like representations for random variables generated by classical Brownian motion, Lévy processes and fractional Brownian with Hurst index greater than 1/2.The relationship between the conditional expectation of a random variable (or fractional conditional expectation in the case of fractional Brownian motion)and that variable's Dyson-series like representation is the exponential formula. These results had not yet been extended to either fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index less than 1/2, or d-dimensional Brownian motion. The former is still out of reach, but we hope our review of stochastic integration for fractional Brownian motion …
The Cost-Effectiveness And Feminization Of The Human Papillomavirus Vaccine, Audrey Jammes
The Cost-Effectiveness And Feminization Of The Human Papillomavirus Vaccine, Audrey Jammes
Scripps Senior Theses
Approved in 2006, the Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine provided a medical breakthrough in combating cancer by inoculating first female and then male adolescents in 2010. In 2016, a new HPV vaccine was approved for all adolescents. However, it is the most expensive vaccine created in the United States and its female centered prescription led to debates regarding the vaccine’s necessity and risks. For the STS portion of this paper, analysis of the language in the vaccine’s prescriptions from 2006, 2010, and 2016 demonstrates two implicit assumptions regarding female health built into the vaccine’s rollout. Comparison of the two assumptions to …
The Effect Of Female Managers On Mutual Fund Performance During Down Markets, Madison Gates, Madison I. Gates
The Effect Of Female Managers On Mutual Fund Performance During Down Markets, Madison Gates, Madison I. Gates
Scripps Senior Theses
Women in the finance industry have long been underrepresented. The mutual fund industry is no exception, with female managers in the United States falling stagnant at only 11% from 2000 to 2019. Given this low and stagnant number, this study seeks to understand if female managers impact mutual fund performance, specifically comparing down and up market periods. The data for this research was compiled from individual US mutual fund prospectus and fact sheet information in order to create a unique dataset containing the returns for every year between 2000 and 2019 as well as gender make-up, average experience, and team …
Feature Investigation For Stock Returns Prediction Using Xgboost And Deep Learning Sentiment Classification, Seungho (Samuel) Lee
Feature Investigation For Stock Returns Prediction Using Xgboost And Deep Learning Sentiment Classification, Seungho (Samuel) Lee
CMC Senior Theses
This paper attempts to quantify predictive power of social media sentiment and financial data in stock prediction by utilizing a comprehensive set of stock-related fundamental and technical variables and social media sentiments. For conducting sentiment analysis, this study employs a pretrained finBERT model that provides three different sentiment classifications and respective softmax scores. Hence, the significance of these variables is evaluated with XGBoost regression and Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) frameworks. Through investigating feature importance, this study finds that statistical properties of sentiment variables provide a stronger predictive power than a weighted sentiment score and that it is possible to quantify …
Gambling Autonomy: The Impact Of Latin American Central Bank Independence On Risk Aversion Within Monetary Policy Implementation, Julia Duarte Schulman
Gambling Autonomy: The Impact Of Latin American Central Bank Independence On Risk Aversion Within Monetary Policy Implementation, Julia Duarte Schulman
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines the effect of Latin American central bank independence (CBI) on risk-averse behaviors in monetary policy. Using a fixed effects panel regression, I document how multiple forms of monetary policy are influenced by different macroeconomic variables, conflicting policy targets and central bank independence benchmarks. The results show that increasing CBI has a positive impact on risk aversion, especially in policies targeting inflation and money supply. Additionally, the results show that interest rates and reserve requirements were especially susceptible to changes in independence, while the monetary base and volume of domestic credit were less influenced. Finally, as time and …
Zoom In, Class Out: An Event Study On Publicly Traded Ed Tech Firm Valuations During Covid-19, Matiss Ozols
Zoom In, Class Out: An Event Study On Publicly Traded Ed Tech Firm Valuations During Covid-19, Matiss Ozols
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines how publicly traded Ed Tech firms reacted to negative announcements regarding COVID-19. Using an event study method, I document how an international portfolio of Ed Tech firms react across multiple event windows. The results show that Ed Tech firms reacted positively to the announcement of the first US death and negatively to the World Health Organization’s declaration that COVID-19 was a pandemic. Additionally, differences in geographical location did not impact cumulative abnormal returns across event windows. Finally, firm-specific characteristics such as volatility and financial leverage had little or no significance on stock returns.
Converged Subset Portfolios: An Extension To Subset Optimization, Coleman Cornell
Converged Subset Portfolios: An Extension To Subset Optimization, Coleman Cornell
CMC Senior Theses
The limited span of useful data, coupled with increasingly expansive asset universes, cripples the traditional mean-variance problem. When optimizing in these environments, the pronounced effect of estimation error yields extremely unstable portfolios when evaluated out-of-sample. As a proposed solution to the "curse of dimensionality," Gillen (2016) presents subset optimization as a technique to reduce the impact of estimation error. Instead of optimizing jointly over the entire asset universe, subset optimization na\"ively aggregates over many "subset portfolios" that each optimize over a much smaller random sample of assets. Given the inefficiencies when using naive aggregation, converged subset optimization is presented as …
Diversifying Investment Portfolios With Collectible Sneakers: Expected Returns And Benefits Of Diversification, Samuel Soo
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis seeks to identify if collectible sneakers can provide diversification benefits to an investor’s portfolio. Using data from a global collectible sneaker marketplace, StockX, I constructed an index to compare it with other traditional assets, including the S&P 500 index and 5-year US Treasury Bills. By calculating key metrics including expected returns, volatility, and correlation, I analyzed the risk-return characteristics of the collectible sneaker asset class compared to other traditional asset classes. From the data analysis I performed, I found that collectible sneakers did not outperform returns significantly compared to traditional asset classes, but had low correlations, which provides …
Are Investment Banks Helpful Or Hurtful? An Analysis Of Intraday Volatility In The Direct Listing Process As Compared To Investment Bank-Involvement In Traditional Ipos, Alexis Paff
Scripps Senior Theses
In this paper, I carry out an empirical analysis of the pricing volatility of direct listings as compared to traditional IPOs. Direct listings solve an efficiency problem in the US going-public market, in which well-funded, late-stage firms lack incentives to pursue a public listing, which would create liquidity for preexisting shareholders and allow for a more diverse body of public shareholders. Direct listings have been allowed on the New York Stock Exchange since early 2018, and four firms, Spotify, Slack, Asana, and Palantir, have gone public through this new listing mechanism. While underwriters are heavily involved in the IPO process, …
The International Spread Of Covid-19 Stock Market Collapses, Silvio Contessi, Pierangelo De Pace
The International Spread Of Covid-19 Stock Market Collapses, Silvio Contessi, Pierangelo De Pace
Pomona Economics
We identify periods of mildly explosive dynamics and collapses in the stock markets of 18 major countries during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020. We find statistical evidence of instability transmission from the Chinese stock market to all other markets. The recovery is heterogeneous and generally non-explosive.
Comovement And Instability In Cryptocurrency Markets, Pierangelo De Pace, Jayant Rao
Comovement And Instability In Cryptocurrency Markets, Pierangelo De Pace, Jayant Rao
Pomona Economics
We analyze the extent of comovement between daily price returns of nine major cryptocurrencies during the first three main phases of their development, from April 2013 to November 2018. We assess its evolution using bivariate and multivariate modelling approaches, and detect pronounced time variation. Generally, comovement is initially low and positive, but increases between early 2017 and late 2018. We then adopt a right-tail version of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test to identify periods of mildly explosive behavior (statistical instability) in the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio (a measure of the dollar value of cryptocurrency transaction activity relative …
Optimal Execution In Cryptocurrency Markets, Ethan Kurz
Optimal Execution In Cryptocurrency Markets, Ethan Kurz
CMC Senior Theses
The purpose of this paper is to study the Almgren and Chriss model on the optimal execution of large block orders both on the NYSE and in cryptocurrency exchanges. Their model minimizes execution costs, which include linear temporary and permanent price impacts. We focus on how the stock market microstructure differs from a cryptocurrency exchange microstructure and what that means for how the model functions. Once the model and microstructures are explained, we examine how the Almgren-Chriss model functions with stocks from the NYSE, looking at specifically selling a large number of shares. We then investigate how a large "wholesale" …
Libor Manipulation And The Transition To Sofr, Seth Taylor-Brill
Libor Manipulation And The Transition To Sofr, Seth Taylor-Brill
CMC Senior Theses
With the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) likely to disappear at the end of 2021 due to its manipulation during the 2008 financial crisis, the financial industry must decide what to do about legacy contracts tied to LIBOR and must select a new interest rank benchmark regime going forwards. This paper provides insight into those questions by first contributing to the existing literature aimed at measuring the extent of LIBOR manipulation and then by developing a model to explain the LIBOR-SOFR spread. This paper analyzes banks’ LIBOR submissions from 2006 to 2008 to identify bank collusion to strategically increase or …
Saudi Stock Market Reaction To Different Major Events, Ahmed Aljarba
Saudi Stock Market Reaction To Different Major Events, Ahmed Aljarba
CGU Theses & Dissertations
This study implements event study analyses to investigate participants’ reactions to nine different, important events impacting the Saudi Arabian stock market. It analyzes the dynamics of security prices in the Saudi Arabian stock market during the first five days surrounding the event dates. I tested the significance of abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns of all the 20 sectors during the (-5,+5) days event window. I found that the market participants react both positively and negatively to different events examined in the study, which was reflected in both the positive and negative cumulative average abnormal returns. The results could be …
K-Means Stock Clustering Analysis Based On Historical Price Movements And Financial Ratios, Shu Bin
K-Means Stock Clustering Analysis Based On Historical Price Movements And Financial Ratios, Shu Bin
CMC Senior Theses
The 2015 article Creating Diversified Portfolios Using Cluster Analysis proposes an algorithm that uses the Sharpe ratio and results from K-means clustering conducted on companies' historical financial ratios to generate stock market portfolios. This project seeks to evaluate the performance of the portfolio-building algorithm during the beginning period of the COVID-19 recession. S&P 500 companies' historical stock price movement and their historical return on assets and asset turnover ratios are used as dissimilarity metrics for K-means clustering. After clustering, stock with the highest Sharpe ratio from each cluster is picked to become a part of the portfolio. The economic and …
The Chinese Real Estate Bubble, Gary N. Smith, Wesley Liang
The Chinese Real Estate Bubble, Gary N. Smith, Wesley Liang
Pomona Economics
China has seen extraordinary economic growth for the past two decades, coupled with a booming housing market. Following the 2008 financial crisis, however, observers began worrying that the Chinese real estate market had been gripped by a speculative bubble. We use residential rent and price data to assess whether these fears are justified. We conclude that residential real estate markets are bubbly in Beijing and Shanghai, with the Beijing housing market frothier than the Shanghai market.
The Name Game: The Importance Of Resourcefulness, Ruses, And Recall In Stock Ticker Symbols, Gary N. Smith, Naomi Baer, Erica Barry
The Name Game: The Importance Of Resourcefulness, Ruses, And Recall In Stock Ticker Symbols, Gary N. Smith, Naomi Baer, Erica Barry
Pomona Economics
Previous research reported that a portfolio of stocks with clever ticker symbols outperformed the overall market by a significant margin during the years 1984 to 2005. This paper reports the performance of those stocks during the subsequent years 2006 to 2018, and also investigates the 2006-2008 performance of a new set of clever-ticker stocks. Both clever-ticker portfolios beat the market by a substantial margin, supporting the resiliency of the clever-ticker phenomenon.
Be Wary Of Black-Box Trading Algorithms, Gary N. Smith
Be Wary Of Black-Box Trading Algorithms, Gary N. Smith
Pomona Economics
Black-box algorithms now account for nearly a third of all U. S. stock trades. It is a mistake to think that these algorithms possess superhuman intelligence. In reality, computers do not have the common sense and wisdom that humans have accumulated by living. Trading algorithms are particularly dangerous because they are so efficient at discovering statistical patterns—but so utterly useless in judging whether the discovered patterns are meaningful.