Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

An Empirical Evaluation Of Neural Process Meta-Learners For Financial Forecasting, Kevin G. Patel

Master's Theses

Challenges of financial forecasting, such as a dearth of independent samples and non- stationary underlying process, limit the relevance of conventional machine learning towards financial forecasting. Meta-learning approaches alleviate some of these is- sues by allowing the model to generalize across unrelated or loosely related tasks with few observations per task. The neural process family achieves this by con- ditioning forecasts based on a supplied context set at test time. Despite promise, meta-learning approaches remain underutilized in finance. To our knowledge, ours is the first application of neural processes to realized volatility (RV) forecasting and financial forecasting in general.

We …

Sweating The Energy Bill: Extreme Weather, Poor Households, And The Energy Spending Gap, Jacqueline M. Doremus, Irene Jacqz, Sarah Johnston

Economics

We estimate the relationship between temperature and energy spending for both low and higher-income U.S. households. We find both groups respond similarly (in percentage terms) to moderate temperatures, but low-income households’ energy spending is half as responsive to extreme temperatures. Consistent with low-income households cutting back on necessities to afford their energy bills, we find similar disparities in the food spending response to extreme temperature. These results suggest adaptation to extreme weather, such as air conditioning use, is prohibitively costly for households experiencing poverty.

Birds Of A Feather Lockdown Together: Mutual Bird-Human Benefits During A Global Pandemic, Michael Brock, Jacqueline Doremus, Liqing Li

Economics

Feeding backyard wildlife has impure public good characteristics - it provides satisfaction to humans, both private and public, while also improving bird populations. We document a surge in human interest in connecting with wild birds during lockdowns in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Using an event-study design, we find large increases in bird engagement began soon after the start of the COVID-19 lockdowns in Spring 2020. Responses were stronger for areas with more bird species. Investments appear sustained, beginning first with bird feeders, then seed and finally baths. Beyond bird survival, bird feeding can potentially enhance humans' connection to nature …

The Effects Of Recreational Cannabis Access On Labor Markets: Evidence From Colorado, Avinandan Chakraborty, Jacqueline Doremus, Sarah Stith

Economics

Recreational cannabis markets possibly increase labor demand through investments in facilities for growing, processing, and retail sales of cannabis, as well as through other industries such as manufacturing, leisure, and hospitality. However, this increase in labor demand may vary substantially across counties within a state as most states with legal recreational canna-bis allow individual counties to ban commercial cannabis sales. Meanwhile, labor supply may change through positive and negative effects from cannabis use. Using county-level Colorado data from 2011 to 2018 and exploiting variation across counties in the existence and timing of the start of dispensary sales, we test for …

Nopal En La Frente: Racial Passing And The Hidden Indigeneity Of The Los Altos Region Of Jalisco, 1720-1950, Brandon Manuel Márquez

History

When people look at Los Altos de Jalisco, they typically think of this area as representing a pocket of European ancestry in a mestizaje state. Yet this ignores one huge aspect of this region: its indigenous history. Throughout the last three hundred years, the Los Altos region of Jalisco has allowed for the racial passing of many different families. This is all the more significant because many of its citizens have what many believe to be European features- mainly being light hair, light skin, and colored eyes. Because of these perceived European features, many of the Alteños believe that they …

Indispensable Homes In Third World Countries: Constructing A Home In Tijuana, Mexico, Myles Hubers

Construction Management

This project was created to explore a way in which poverty around the world could ultimately be reduced. The way in which this project intends to demonstrate a method used to reduce poverty is by building a home for a specific family in Tijuana, Mexico. In doing so, this home will act as a model home for a manual, comprised of steps that should be taken to construct similar homes throughout any third world country. The goal of this project is to highlight the importance of poverty in the world while also creating a buildable solution in order to reduce …

Import Restrictions By Eco-Certification: Quantity Effects On Tropical Timber Production, Matthew T. Cole, Jacqueline M. Doremus, Stephen F. Hamilton

Economics

Eco-certification standards are increasingly used by industrial countries to restrict imports of foreign goods produced using unsustainable practices. Import restrictions on eco-certified goods limit the trade of goods to the home country, but also serve to segment global demand into separate regions for conventional goods and certified goods, altering market structure and equilibrium prices in a manner that can work against sustainability goals. In this paper, we examine the effect of recent import restrictions in the US, EU, Canada, and Japan that require tropical timber products produced in Central Africa to be eco-certified. Using panel data of timber production in …

Gender Differences In The Mental Health Of Parents During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Lucia Regina Gomes

Economics

The global COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the mental health of many in the world. With stay-at-home orders and schools transitioning to remote learning, the mental health of parents specifically has become an important topic for research. This paper utilizes Ordinary Least Squares Regression to examine the effect of gender on depleted mental health among U.S. parents. The results indicate an association between mothers and worsened mental health during the onset of the pandemic in the U.S.

How Does Eco-Label Competition Affect Environmental Benefits? The Case Of Central Africa’S Forests, Jacqueline M. Doremus

Economics

Increasingly, non-governmental organization (NGO) and industry eco-labels compete. Environmental benefits may increase or decrease with entry by an industry label, depending on the shape of consumers’ willingness to pay and the shape of the distribution of forest compliance costs. Using geospatial data from forests in Cameroon and Gabon to proxy for compliance costs, I test whether lower compliance cost forests are more likely to participate in stricter labels. Next, I use a semi-nonparametric estimator to estimate parameters for willingness to pay and the distribution of forest compliance costs to calculate benefits with and without label competition. I find that, in …

Informing The Creation Of A Financial Literacy Tool For Cal Poly Students, Kelly Michelle Carroll

Communication Studies

This research project examines the wants, needs, and desires of Cal Poly students to inform the creation of a financial literacy tool (tentatively named “MoneySmart”) to be created by another student. The methodologies used to gauge these metrics were a literature review and questionnaire. The literature review aids in understanding research regarding the current state of student financial literacy in the United States, including student attitudes toward the topic. Subsequent findings were used to create the questionnaire, which inquired about students’ financial stress, confidence in their abilities to manage their personal finances, specific interests for the design and contents of …

Off-Label Use Of Recreational Cannabis: Acid Reflux In Colorado, Jacqueline M. Doremus, Sarah S. Stith, Jacob M. Vigil

Economics

Medical cannabis access has been shown to affect clinical health outcomes and health care spending. Unlike medical access, which requires a doctor's recommendation for treatment and only applies to the limited conditions approved under the state's medical cannabis program, recreational access makes cannabis available over-the-counter (OTC). This may create additional benefits through off-label cannabis use to treat unlisted conditions, such as acid reflux, which affects two out of three Americans. Using the roll out of recreational dispensaries in Colorado in 2014, we estimate the change in retailers' market share of antacid medications using a difference-in-differences design. Antacid market share decreases …

Spatial And Temporal Variation Of Offshore Wind Power And Its Values Along The Central California Coast, Yi-Hui Wang, Ryan K. Walter, Crow White, Matthew D. Kehrli, Stephen F. Hamilton, Patrick H. Soper, Benjamin I. Ruttenberg

Physics

The analysis of the spatiotemporal variability of wind power remains limited during the planning stage of an offshore wind farm. This study provides a framework to investigate how offshore wind power varies along the Central California Coast over diurnal and seasonal time scales, which is critical for reliability and functionality of the grid system. We find that offshore wind power in this region peaks during evening hours across all seasons and maximizes in spring and summer. The timing of peak offshore wind power production better aligns with that of peak demand across California than solar and land-based wind power production, …

Using Recreational Cannabis To Treat Insomnia: Evidence From Over-The-Counter Sleep Aid Sales In Colorado, Jacqueline M. Doremus, Sarah S. Stith, Jacob M. Vigil

Economics

This study seeks to understand whether people substitute between recreational cannabis and conventional over-the-counter (OTC) sleep medications. UPC-level grocery store scanner data in a multivariable panel regression design were used to compare the change in the monthly market share of sleep aids with varying dispensary-based recreational cannabis access (existence, sales, and count) in Colorado counties between 12/2013 and 12/2014. We measured annually-differenced market shares for sleep aids as a portion of the overall OTC medication market, thus accounting for store-level demand shifts in OTC medication markets and seasonality, and used the monthly changes in stores’ sleep aid market share to …

Unintended Impacts From Forest Certification: Evidence From Indigenous Aka Households In Congo, Jacqueline M. Doremus

Economics

Does Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) certification of “responsible” commercial forestry change nutrition, health and wealth for indigenous peoples, like the Aka of the Congo Basin? Using hand-collected data from the boundary of a certified and an uncertified forest in the Republic of Congo five years after certification, I compare nutrition, health, and wealth using questions that are locally salient and survey timing designed to reach seminomadic hunter-gatherers. Though I only observe outcomes after certification, using a spatial regression discontinuity design I find suggestive evidence that activities to satisfy forest certification may cause increased food insecurity and illness frequency for Aka …

Simpler Is Better: Predicting Consumer Vehicle Purchases In The Short Run, Jacqueline M. Doremus, Gloria Helfand, Changzheng Liu, Marie Donahue, Ari Kahan, Michael Shelby

Economics

When agencies such as the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) establish future greenhouse gas emissions standards for new vehicles, forecasting future vehicle purchases due to changes in fuel economy and prices provides insight into regulatory impacts. We compare predictions from a nested logit model independently developed for US EPA to a simple model where past market share predicts future market share using data from model years 2008, 2010, and 2016. The simple model outperforms the nested logit model for all goodness-of-prediction measures for both prediction years. Including changes in vehicle price and fuel economy increases bias in forecasted market shares. …

The Martingale Approach To Financial Mathematics, Jordan M. Rowley

Master's Theses

In this thesis, we will develop the fundamental properties of financial mathematics, with a focus on establishing meaningful connections between martingale theory, stochastic calculus, and measure-theoretic probability. We first consider a simple binomial model in discrete time, and assume the impossibility of earning a riskless profit, known as arbitrage. Under this no-arbitrage assumption alone, we stumble upon a strange new probability measure Q, according to which every risky asset is expected to grow as though it were a bond. As it turns out, this measure Q also gives the arbitrage-free pricing formula for every asset on our market. In …

Form Based Codes And Economic Impacts: A Multivariate Regression Analysis And Case Study, Jacob M. Howard

Master's Theses

After a 100-year history, traditional zoning practices are being challenged as a contributing factor in a number of social, heath and economic problems facing cities in the United States. In this context, form based codes have emerged as a possible alternative way for cities to guide development. Growing out of the New Urbanist movement, form based codes frequently mix uses, allow for a greater variety of housing types and encourage development that is both denser and more compact. Despite an established literature which links land-use regulations, and zoning in particular, to fiscal outcomes, the impacts that form based codes have …

Socioeconomic Status, Air Quality And Geographic Variation In Emergency Room Visits For Acute Bronchitis On The California Central Coast, Sean Lang-Brown, Heather W. Starnes, Gary B. Hughes

Symposium

IMPORTANCE: Analysis of geospatial variation in acute bronchitis due to socioeconomic and environmental factors can allow the efficient delivery of resources to populations most at risk.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine if small scale variation in socioeconomic factors and emergency room (ER) visits for acute bronchitis are associated in small cities or rural communities. We also modeled the effects of air quality on daily rates of ER visits for acute bronchitis in the context of socioeconomic factors to investigate modifying relationships.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We examined ER visits for acute bronchitis in San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties …

Transitioning College Media From Print Focused Business Models To Digitally Focused Business Models, Celina Oseguera

Journalism

The noticeable downturn in print advertising indicates a need for change in the news industry business model. College media is not immune to this decline and need for change. A change in business model calls for transitioning to an alternative system that does not primarily rely on print products and advertising — a digitally focused business model. Many college media organizations around the United States have started to pursue this type of model, changing the way they produce and present news in the process. Taking into account the state of print focused business models in the general and collegiate news …

Calpoly 2015 Transportation Survey Report, William Riggs

City and Regional Planning Studios and Projects

In the spring of 2015, City & Regional Planning faculty conducted a campus-wide transportation survey as part of work on the campus Climate Action Plan. The survey represented spring 2014 commutes and was issued to a sample of full and part-time CalPoly faculty, staff, students and auxiliaries with assistance from Facilities Services and the Vice President for Administration and Finance.

The total number of responses was 3,961, roughly 17% of the entire campus population of roughly 23,000. Unsurprisingly, the majority of respondents were students, totaling 68.6%, while the rest were made up of faculty, staff, and visitors. Results are significant …

Bicycle Tourism Plan For Economic Development: A Template For Rural Agricultural Towns And A Case Study For The City Of Winters, California, Marisa Rene Lee

Master's Theses

Bicycling is a method of tourism transportation that is healthy, non-invasive, environmentally responsible, and economically sustainable. It allows freedom, mobility, and sightseeing potential that is not made possible by other modes of transit. Thousands of bicycle tourists travel from all over the globe annually to explore California on touring bikes via established cycling routes and robust determination. Thousands of additional domestic and international visitors take weekend trips, plan family vacations, travel for business, or tour California from abroad, many of whom are excellent candidates for local and regional bicycle touring at a more gentle intensity level.

The increasing popularity and …

A Comment On Christofferson, Jacobs, And Ornthanalia (2012), "Dynamic Jump Intensities And Risk Premiums: Evidence From S&P 500 Returns And Options", Garland Durham, John Geweke, Pulak Ghosh

Finance

No abstract provided.

Water In The 21st Century, Grayson Michael Shor

Social Sciences

The aim of this research project is to provide a comprehensive and global analysis of water use in order to provide the reader with a comprehensive grasp of current and impending issues. The included five (5) chapters discuss water distribution, conservation, purification, law, international development, economic debates, ethical consideration, as well as educated estimations of the effects water related issues may cause in the next one-hundred years.

Improving Asset Price Prediction When All Models Are False, Garland Durham, John Geweke

Finance

This study considers three alternative sources of information about volatility potentially useful in predicting daily asset returns: daily returns, intraday returns, and option prices. For each source of information the study begins with several alternative models, and then works from the premise that all of these models are false to construct a single improved predictive distribution for daily S&P 500 index returns. The prediction probabilities of the optimal pool exceed those of the conventional models by as much as 5.29%. The optimal pools place substantial weight on models using each of the three sources of information about volatility.

Sustainability In Zambia, Africa: Examining Partnership Of An Agricultural Business And A Non-Profit Organization, Kaitlin Grace O'Leary

Ethnic Studies

The purpose of my study is examining the ways in which agricultural

business is currently supporting and benefitting a non-profit organization.

Through participation of an international agricultural business, Plant Sciences Inc.

(PSI) and a Christian non-profit organization, Lifesong for Orphans, this study

has been a collaborative effort and process, observing agriculture as a means of

sustainability for a non-profit organization. This study has revealed the necessity

of not only updated technology and resources, but has also discovered a continued

necessity of dedicated personnel to the field. A major theme from my

observations was cross-cultural relations, and the ways in which …

Risk-Neutral Modeling With Affine And Nonaffine Models, Garland Bennett Durham

Finance

Option prices provide a great deal of information regarding the market’s expectations of future asset price dynamics. But, the implied dynamics are under the risk-neutral measure rather than the physical measure under which the price of the underlying asset itself evolves. This article demonstrates new techniques for joint analysis of the physical and risk-neutral models using data from both the underlying asset and options. While much of the prior work in this area has focused on affine and affine-jump models because of their analytical tractability, the techniques used in this article are straightforward to apply to a broad class of …

Population Pressure And Family Planning In The Case Of Sub Saharan Africa's Demographic Transition, Jessica T. Ysunza

Social Sciences

No abstract provided.

Beyond Stochastic Volatility And Jumps In Returns And Volatility, Garland Durham, Yang-Ho Park

Finance

While a great deal of attention has been focused on stochastic volatility in stock returns, there is strong evidence suggesting that return distributions have time-varying skewness and kurtosis as well. Under the risk-neutral measure, for example, this can be seen from variation across time in the shape of Black-Scholes implied volatility smiles. This paper investigates model characteristics that are consistent with variation in the shape of return distributions using a stochastic volatility model with a regime-switching feature to allow for random changes in the parameters governing volatility of volatility, leverage effect and jump intensity. The analysis consists of two steps. …

Return, Purchase, Or Skip? Outcome, Duration, And Consumer Behavior In The Rent-To-Own Market, Michael H. Anderson, Sanjiv Jaggia

Economics

Rent-to-own (RTO) is attractive to financially distressed consumers. It allows immediate access to merchandise and an opportunity for eventually acquisition. Yet goods can be returned at any point without penalty or other adverse consequences. We use a competing risk methodology that accounts for unobserved consumer heterogeneity to study how contracts conclude, estimating the probabilities of exit— via return, purchase, or skip—and the associated durations. The estimated outcome probabilities highlight the use of the embedded return option by RTO consumers and the trade-offs and cross-subsidization implicit in the RTO contractual arrangement.We offer rational and behavioral explanations of consumer behavior in the …

Obesity And Hyperbolic Discounting: An Experimental Analysis, Timothy J. Richards, Stephen F. Hamilton

Economics

Models of rational addiction suggest that obesity is consistent with time-consistent preferences. Behavioral economists maintain that addictions such as alcoholism, smoking and over-eating represent examples of present-bias in decision making that is fundamentally irrational. In this article, conduct an experiment to test whether individual discount schedules are time-consistent and whether discount rates are higher for subjects who exhibit patterns of risky behavior. Our results show that discount functions are quasi-hyperbolic in shape, and that obesity and drinking are positively related to the discount rate. Anti-obesity policy, therefore, would be best directed to informing individuals as to the long-term implications of …