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Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™
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International and Area Studies
Singapore Management University
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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Economic Forecasting In A Pandemic: Some Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan, Keen Meng Choy
Economic Forecasting In A Pandemic: Some Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan, Keen Meng Choy
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper aims to investigate whether the predictive performance and behaviour of professional forecasters are different during the COVID-19 pandemic as compared with the global financial crisis of 2008 and normal times. To this end, we use a survey of professional forecasters in Singapore collated by the central bank to analyse the forecasting records for GDP growth and CPI inflation for the period 2000Q1–2021Q4. We first examine the point forecasts to document the extent of forecast failure duringthe two crises and explore various explanations for it, such as leader-following and herding behaviour. Then, using percentile-based summary measures of probability distribution …