Probability Commons^™

Langevin Dynamic Models For Smfret Dynamic Shift, David Frost, Keisha Cook Dr, Hugo Sanabria Dr

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Would You Choose The Same Nationality If You Were Born Again?, Keito Kono, Logan Bowerman

Harrisburg University Research Symposium: Highlighting Research, Innovation, & Creativity

Nationality is an important element in the formation of identity, but this brings up a question; that is whether people are proud of their nationality. Thus, we decided to investigate how many people would prefer to have the same nationality if they were born again. This survey is important because it could provide an opportunity to recognize people's interest in other countries and their patriotism

Payments Data In Gambling Research, Kasra Ghaharian, Mana Azizsoltani

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

A considerable body of gambling-related research has leveraged gamblers' behavioral tracking data to address a broad set of research questions. These data have typically comprised of gamblers' betting-related behaviors including, for example, the frequency and volume of betting. The analysis of gamblers' payment-related behavioral data is far less common, but provides a fruitful avenue gambling-related research.

In this presentation we discuss a selection of potential research opportunities that payments transaction data presents. We supplement this discussion with specific analyses that have been performed by our research group. We also discuss knowledge gaps and areas for future research.

A Game-Theoretic Analysis Of Baccara Chemin De Fer, Ii, Stewart N. Ethier, Jiyeon Lee

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

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Tardys Quantifiers: Extracting Temporal And Reversible Dynamical Symmetries, Nhat Vu Minh Nguyen, Arjendu K. Pattanayak, Andres Aragoneses

2023 Symposium

One of the great challenges in complex and chaotic dynamics is to reveal the details of its underlying determinism. This can be manifest in the form of temporal correlations or structured patterns in the dynamics of a measurable variable. These temporal dynamical structures are sometimes a consequence of hidden global symmetries. Here we identify the temporal (approximate) symmetries of a semiconductor laser with external optical feedback, based on which we define the Temporal And Reversible DYnamical Symmetry (TARDYS) quantifiers to evaluate the relevance of specific temporal correlations in a time series. We show that these symmetries are also present in …

A Novel Family Of Chain Binomial Models To Investigate Correlated Vaccination And Infection Rates In Sveirs Epidemic Dynamics, Divine Wanduku

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Statistical Approach To Quantifying Interceptability Of Interaction Scenarios For Testing Autonomous Surface Vessels, Benjamin E. Hargis, Yiannis E. Papelis

Modeling, Simulation and Visualization Student Capstone Conference

This paper presents a probabilistic approach to quantifying interceptability of an interaction scenario designed to test collision avoidance of autonomous navigation algorithms. Interceptability is one of many measures to determine the complexity or difficulty of an interaction scenario. This approach uses a combined probability model of capability and intent to create a predicted position probability map for the system under test. Then, intercept-ability is quantified by determining the overlap between the system under test probability map and the intruder’s capability model. The approach is general; however, a demonstration is provided using kinematic capability models and an odometry-based intent model.

Finite Mixture Modeling For Hierarchically Structured Data With Application To Keystroke Dynamics, Andrew Simpson, Semhar Michael

SDSU Data Science Symposium

Keystroke dynamics has been used to both authenticate users of computer systems and detect unauthorized users who attempt to access the system. Monitoring keystroke dynamics adds another level to computer security as passwords are often compromised. Keystrokes can also be continuously monitored long after a password has been entered and the user is accessing the system for added security. Many of the current methods that have been proposed are supervised methods in that they assume that the true user of each keystroke is known apriori. This is not always true for example with businesses and government agencies which have internal …

Rewriting The Rules For Diagnostics: Implications Of Probability And Measure Theory For Sars-Cov-2 Testing, Paul Patrone, Anthony Kearsley

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Optimal Time-Dependent Classification For Diagnostic Testing, Prajakta P. Bedekar, Paul Patrone, Anthony Kearsley

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Percentage Of Yellow Sour Patch Kids, Easton Kratzer, Sarah Baxter

Harrisburg University Research Symposium: Highlighting Research, Innovation, & Creativity

After being given the Qualitative Research Project in Introduction to Statistics, I came up with the question asking what percentage of Sour Patch Kids are yellow. This resulted in me going through an entire bag and counting the amount of every color to figure out the percentages. (Class Project)

Preference For Violence By Gender, Ayrton Hall, Christian Watson, Akeisha Belgrave

Harrisburg University Research Symposium: Highlighting Research, Innovation, & Creativity

In our survey we asked students of HU what their favorite video games were as well as their favorite genre and most played game. We then analyzed the data to see how gender affects preference for violent games. (Class Project)

Favorite Programming Language Among Students, Anwar Jawhar, Akeisha Belgrave

Harrisburg University Research Symposium: Highlighting Research, Innovation, & Creativity

This project involves understanding the favorite programming language among students. I hypothesize that the favorite programming language will be Python. (Class Project)

Session 5: Equipment Finance Credit Risk Modeling - A Case Study In Creative Model Development & Nimble Data Engineering, Edward Krueger, Landon Thompson, Josh Moore

SDSU Data Science Symposium

This presentation will focus first on providing an overview of Channel and the Risk Analytics team that performed this case study. Given that context, we’ll then dive into our approach for building the modeling development data set, techniques and tools used to develop and implement the model into a production environment, and some of the challenges faced upon launch. Then, the presentation will pivot to the data engineering pipeline. During this portion, we will explore the application process and what happens to the data we collect. This will include how we extract & store the data along with how it …

Stochastic Analysis And Statistical Inference For Seir Models Of Infectious Diseases, Andrés Ríos-Gutiérrez, Viswanathan Arunachalam, Anuj Mubayi

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Direct Questioning Of Sensitive Topics In Public Health Studies: A Simulation Study, Jessica K. Fox, Evrim Oral

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Network Structure And Dynamics Of Biological Systems, Deena R. Schmidt

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

A Statistical Analysis Of The Roulette Martingale System: Examples, Formulas And Simulations With R, Peter Pflaumer

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Some gamblers use a martingale or doubling strategy as a way of improving their chances of winning. This paper derives important formulas for the martingale strategy, such as the distribution, the expected value, the standard deviation of the profit, the risk of a loss or the expected bet of one or multiple martingale rounds. A computer simulation study with R of the doubling strategy is presented. The results of doubling to gambling with a constant sized bet on simple chances (red or black numbers, even or odd numbers, and low (1 – 18) or high (19 – 36) numbers) and …

Characterizing The Permanence And Stationary Distribution For A Family Of Malaria Stochastic Models, Divine Wanduku

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Analysis Of Ranked Gene Tree Probability Distributions Under The Coalescent Process For Detecting Anomaly Zones, Anastasiia Kim

Shared Knowledge Conference

In phylogenetic studies, gene trees are used to reconstruct species tree. Under the multispecies coalescent model, gene trees topologies may differ from that of species trees. The incorrect gene tree topology (one that does not match the species tree) that is more probable than the correct one is termed anomalous gene tree (AGT). Species trees that can generate such AGTs are said to be in the anomaly zone (AZ). In this region, the method of choosing the most common gene tree as the estimate of the species tree will be inconsistent and will converge to an incorrect species tree when …

On Passing The Buck, Adam J. Hammett, Anna Joy Yang

The Research and Scholarship Symposium (2013-2019)

Imagine there are n>1 people seated around a table, and person S starts with a fair coin they will flip to decide whom to hand the coin next -- if "heads" they pass right, and if "tails" they pass left. This process continues until all people at the table have "touched" the coin. Curiously, it turns out that all people seated at the table other than S have the same probability 1/(n-1) of being last to touch the coin. In fact, Lovasz and Winkler ("A note on the last new vertex visited by a random walk," J. Graph Theory, …

Hazard Assessment Of Meteoroid Impact For The Design Of Lunar Habitats, Herta Paola Montoya, Shirley Dyke, Julio A. Ramirez, Antonio Bobet, H. Jay Melosh, Daniel Gomez

The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium

The design of self-sustaining lunar habitats is a challenge primarily due to the Moon’s lack of atmospheric protection and hazardous environment. To assure safe habitats that will lead to further lunar and space exploration, it is necessary to assess the different hazards faced on the Moon such as meteoroid impacts, extreme temperatures, and radiation. In particular, meteoroids pose a risk to lunar structures due to their high frequency of occurrence and hypervelocity impact. Continuous meteoroid impacts can harm structural elements and vital equipment compromising the well-being of lunar inhabitants. This study is focused on the hazard conceptualization and quantification of …

Digital Forensics Tool Selection With Multi-Armed Bandit Problem, Umit Karabiyik, Tugba Karabiyik

Annual ADFSL Conference on Digital Forensics, Security and Law

Digital forensics investigation is a long and tedious process for an investigator in general. There are many tools that investigators must consider, both proprietary and open source. Forensics investigators must choose the best tool available on the market for their cases to make sure they do not overlook any evidence resides in suspect device within a reasonable time frame. This is however hard decision to make, since learning and testing all available tools make their job only harder. In this project, we define the digital forensics tool selection for a specific investigative task as a multi-armed bandit problem assuming that …

Does Logic Help Us Beat Monty Hall?, Adam J. Hammett, Nathan A. Harold, Tucker R. Rhodes

The Research and Scholarship Symposium (2013-2019)

The classical Monty Hall problem entails that a hypothetical game show contestant be presented three doors and told that behind one door is a car and behind the other two are far less appealing prizes, like goats. The contestant then picks a door, and the host (Monty) is to open a different door which contains one of the bad prizes. At this point in the game, the contestant is given the option of keeping the door she chose or changing her selection to the remaining door (since one has already been opened by Monty), after which Monty opens the chosen …

On A Multiple-Choice Guessing Game, Ryan Cushman, Adam J. Hammett

The Research and Scholarship Symposium (2013-2019)

We consider the following game (a generalization of a binary version explored by Hammett and Oman): the first player (“Ann”) chooses a (uniformly) random integer from the first n positive integers, which is not revealed to the second player (“Gus”). Then, Gus presents Ann with a k-option multiple choice question concerning the number she chose, to which Ann truthfully replies. After a predetermined number m of these questions have been asked, Gus attempts to guess the number chosen by Ann. Gus wins if he guesses Ann’s number. Our goal is to determine every m-question algorithm which maximizes the probability of …

Video Event Understanding With Pattern Theory, Fillipe Souza, Sudeep Sarkar, Anuj Srivastava, Jingyong Su

MODVIS Workshop

We propose a combinatorial approach built on Grenander’s pattern theory to generate semantic interpretations of video events of human activities. The basic units of representations, termed generators, are linked with each other using pairwise connections, termed bonds, that satisfy predefined relations. Different generators are specified for different levels, from (image) features at the bottom level to (human) actions at the highest, providing a rich representation of items in a scene. The resulting configurations of connected generators provide scene interpretations; the inference goal is to parse given video data and generate high-probability configurations. The probabilistic structures are imposed using energies that …

Modeling Traffic At An Intersection, Kaleigh L. Mulkey, Saniita K. Fasenntao

Symposium of Student Scholars

The main purpose of this project is to build a mathematical model for traffic at a busy intersection. We use elements of Queueing Theory to build our model: the vehicles driving into the intersection are the “arrival process” and the stop light in the intersection is the “server.”

We collected traffic data on the number of vehicles arriving to the intersection, the duration of green and red lights, and the number of vehicles going through the intersection during a green light. We built a SAS macro code to simulate traffic based on parameters derived from the data.

In our program …