Physics Commons^™

Cost-Availability Curves For Hierarchical Implementation Of Residential Energy-Efficiency Measures, Roman Villoria-Siegert, Philip Brodrick, Kevin P. Hallinan, Robert J. Brecha

Physics Faculty Publications

Historical residential electricity data and natural gas consumption data were collected for, respectively, 1,200 and 178 residences in a small town in the USA. These data were merged with local building and weather databases, and energy consumption models were developed for each residence, revealing substantial variation in heating and cooling intensity. After estimating approximate physical building characteristics, energy profiles for each residence were calculated, and savings from adoption of the most cost-effective energy-efficiency measures for each residence were estimated. Effectively, we wish to leverage commonly available data sets to infer characteristics of building envelopes and equipment, without the need for …

Global Fossil Energy Markets And Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis With Remind, Nico Bauer, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Gunnar Luderer, Lavinia Baumstark, Robert J. Brecha, Ottmar Edenhofer, Elmar Kriegler

Physics Faculty Publications

We analyze the dynamics of global fossil resource markets under different assumptions for the supply of fossil fuel resources, development pathways for energy demand, and climate policy settings. Resource markets, in particular the oil market, are characterized by a large discrepancy between costs of resource extraction and commodity prices on international markets. We explain this observation in terms of (a) the intertemporal scarcity rent, (b) regional price differentials arising from trade and transport costs, (c) heterogeneity and inertia in the extraction sector. These effects are captured by the REMIND model. We use the model to explore economic effects of changes …

The Carbon Rent Economics Of Climate Policy, Matthias Kalkuhl, Robert J. Brecha

Physics Faculty Publications

By reducing the demand for fossil fuels, climate policy can reduce scarcity rents for fossil resource owners. As mitigation policies ultimately aim to limit emissions, a new scarcity for “space” in the atmosphere to deposit emissions is created. The associated scarcity rent, or climate rent (that is, for example, directly visible in permit prices under an emission trading scheme) can be higher or lower than the original fossil resource rent. In this paper, we analyze analytically and numerically the impact of mitigation targets, resource availability, backstop costs, discount rates and demand parameters on fossil resource rents and the climate rent. …

Development Without Energy? Assessing Future Scenarios Of Energy Consumption In Developing Countries, Jan Christof Steckel, Robert J. Brecha, Michael Jakob, Jessica Strefler, Gunnar Luderer

Physics Faculty Publications

We analyze the relationship between economic development and energy consumption in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation. The main contribution of this work is to compare estimates of energy thresholds in the form of minimum energy requirements to reach high levels of development with output projections of per capita final energy supply from a group of integrated assessment models (IAMs). Scenarios project that reductions of carbon emissions in developing countries will be achieved not only by means of decreasing the carbon intensity, but also by making a significant break with the historically observed relationship between energy use and economic growth. …

Rose: Roadmaps Towards Sustainable Energy Futures And Climate Protection: A Synthesis Of Results From The Rose Project, Elmar Kriegler, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Gunnar Luderer, Nico Bauer, Katherine Calvin, Enrica Decian, Robert J. Brecha, Wenying Chen, Aleh Cherp, Jae Edmonds, Kejun Jiang, Shonali Pachauri, Fabio Sferra, Massimo Tavoni, Ottmar Edenhofer

Physics Faculty Publications

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Exploring energy demand and supply uncertainty: An exploration of uncertainty on drivers of energy demand and supply is indispensable for better understanding the prospects of long-tern climate stabilization. The RoSE study is the first of its kind to systematically explore the impact of economic growth, population and fossil fuel scarcity, in scenarios with and without climate policy, using a model ensemble. A feature of RoSE is the participation of five established integrated assessment modelling teams from three important regions in international climate policy negotiations: the EU, the USA and China.

Economic growth: Neither slow nor rapid economic growth …

Logistic Curves, Extraction Costs And Peak Oil, Robert J. Brecha

Physics Faculty Publications

Debates about the possibility of a near-term maximum in world oil production have become increasingly prominent over the past decade, with the focus often being on the quantification of geologically available and technologically recoverable amounts of oil in the ground. Economically, the important parameter is not a physical limit to resources in the ground, but whether market price signals and costs of extraction will indicate the efficiency of extracting conventional or nonconventional resources as opposed to making substitutions over time for other fuels and technologies. We present a hybrid approach to the peak-oil question with two models in which the …

Economics Of Nuclear Power And Climate Change Mitigation Policies, Nico Bauer, Robert J. Brecha, Gunnar Luderer

Physics Faculty Publications

The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive …

Variable Renewable Energy In Modeling Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios, Falko Ueckerdt, Robert J. Brecha, Gunnar Luderer, Patrick Sullivan, Eva Schmid, Nico Bauer, Diana Böttger

Physics Faculty Publications

This paper addresses the issue of how to account for short‐term temporal variability of renewable energy sources and power demand in long‐term climate change mitigation scenarios in energy‐economic models. An approach that captures in a stylized way the major challenges to the integration of variable renewable energy sources into power systems has been developed. As a first application this approach has been introduced to REMIND‐D, a hybrid energy‐economy model of Germany. An approximation of the residual load duration curve is implemented. The approximating function endogenously changes depending on the penetration and mix of variable renewable power. The approach can thus …

Logistic Curves, Extraction Costs And The Effective Size Of Oil Resources, Robert J. Brecha

Physics Faculty Publications

The size of potential fossil fuel resources is an issue of perennial interest and controversy. Fundamentally, there appears to be a conflict in interpretation of available data for both past and future extraction histories. As fossil-fuel prices rose dramatically over the past several years, the question of resources once again became acute. In this paper we concentrate on conventional and non-conventional oil resources and make four main points, with the overarching theme that one can determine an effective oil resource that represents significantly less availability for consumption than usually posited by tallying resources in place.

First, looking at oil production …

Prioritizing Investment In Residential Energy Efficiency And Renewable Energy: A Case Study For The U.S. Midwest, Robert J. Brecha, Austin Mitchell, Kevin P. Hallinan, J. Kelly Kissock

Physics Faculty Publications

Residential building energy use is an important contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and in the United States represents about 20% of total energy consumption. A number of previous macro-scale studies of residential energy consumption and energy-efficiency improvements are mainly concerned with national or international aggregate potential savings. In this paper we look into the details of how a collection of specific homes in one region might reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions, with particular attention given to some practical limits to what can be achieved by upgrading the existing residential building stock. Using a simple model of residential, single-family home …

Emissions Scenarios In The Face Of Fossil-Fuel Peaking, Robert J. Brecha

Physics Faculty Publications

Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. We propose in this paper that it is useful to look at a qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, to gain a sense of carbon emission bounds. Here we look at what may be considered a lower bound for 21st century emissions given two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the …