Physics Commons^™

Research Priorities Of Applying Low-Cost Pm2.5 Sensors In Southeast Asian Countries, Shih-Chun Candice Lung, To Thi Hien, Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza, Ohnmar May Tin Hlaing, Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh, Mohd Talib Latif, Puji Lestari, Abdus Salam, Shih-Yu Lee, Wen-Cheng Vincent Wang

Physics Faculty Publications

The low-cost and easy-to-use nature of rapidly developed PM2.5 sensors provide an opportunity to bring breakthroughs in PM2.5 research to resource-limited countries in Southeast Asia (SEA). This review provides an evaluation of the currently available literature and identifies research priorities in applying low-cost sensors (LCS) in PM2.5 environmental and health research in SEA. The research priority is an outcome of a series of participatory workshops under the umbrella of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project–Monsoon Asia and Oceania Networking Group (IGAC–MANGO). A literature review and research prioritization are conducted with a transdisciplinary perspective of providing useful scientific evidence in assisting …

Analyzing Major Challenges Of Wind And Solar Variability In Power Systems, Falko Ueckerdt, Robert Brecha, Gunnar Luderer

Physics Faculty Publications

Ambitious policy targets together with current and projected high growth rates indicate that future power systems will likely show substantially increased generation from renewable energy sources. A large share will come from the variable renewable energy (VRE) sources wind and solar photovoltaics (PV); however, integrating wind and solar causes challenges for existing power systems. In this paper we analyze three major integration challenges related to the structural matching of demand with the supply of wind and solar power: low capacity credit, reduced utilization of dispatchable plants, and over-produced generation. Based on residual load duration curves we define corresponding challenge variables …

Global Fossil Energy Markets And Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis With Remind, Nico Bauer, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Gunnar Luderer, Lavinia Baumstark, Robert J. Brecha, Ottmar Edenhofer, Elmar Kriegler

Physics Faculty Publications

We analyze the dynamics of global fossil resource markets under different assumptions for the supply of fossil fuel resources, development pathways for energy demand, and climate policy settings. Resource markets, in particular the oil market, are characterized by a large discrepancy between costs of resource extraction and commodity prices on international markets. We explain this observation in terms of (a) the intertemporal scarcity rent, (b) regional price differentials arising from trade and transport costs, (c) heterogeneity and inertia in the extraction sector. These effects are captured by the REMIND model. We use the model to explore economic effects of changes …

The Carbon Rent Economics Of Climate Policy, Matthias Kalkuhl, Robert J. Brecha

Physics Faculty Publications

By reducing the demand for fossil fuels, climate policy can reduce scarcity rents for fossil resource owners. As mitigation policies ultimately aim to limit emissions, a new scarcity for “space” in the atmosphere to deposit emissions is created. The associated scarcity rent, or climate rent (that is, for example, directly visible in permit prices under an emission trading scheme) can be higher or lower than the original fossil resource rent. In this paper, we analyze analytically and numerically the impact of mitigation targets, resource availability, backstop costs, discount rates and demand parameters on fossil resource rents and the climate rent. …

Development Without Energy? Assessing Future Scenarios Of Energy Consumption In Developing Countries, Jan Christof Steckel, Robert J. Brecha, Michael Jakob, Jessica Strefler, Gunnar Luderer

Physics Faculty Publications

We analyze the relationship between economic development and energy consumption in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation. The main contribution of this work is to compare estimates of energy thresholds in the form of minimum energy requirements to reach high levels of development with output projections of per capita final energy supply from a group of integrated assessment models (IAMs). Scenarios project that reductions of carbon emissions in developing countries will be achieved not only by means of decreasing the carbon intensity, but also by making a significant break with the historically observed relationship between energy use and economic growth. …

Ten Reasons To Take Peak Oil Seriously, Robert Brecha

Physics Faculty Publications

Forty years ago, the results of modeling, as presented in The Limits to Growth, reinvigorated a discussion about exponentially growing consumption of natural resources, ranging from metals to fossil fuels to atmospheric capacity, and how such consumption could not continue far into the future. Fifteen years earlier, M. King Hubbert had made the projection that petroleum production in the continental United States would likely reach a maximum around 1970, followed by a world production maximum a few decades later. The debate about “peak oil," as it has come to be called, is accompanied by some of the same vociferous …

Rose: Roadmaps Towards Sustainable Energy Futures And Climate Protection: A Synthesis Of Results From The Rose Project, Elmar Kriegler, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Gunnar Luderer, Nico Bauer, Katherine Calvin, Enrica Decian, Robert J. Brecha, Wenying Chen, Aleh Cherp, Jae Edmonds, Kejun Jiang, Shonali Pachauri, Fabio Sferra, Massimo Tavoni, Ottmar Edenhofer

Physics Faculty Publications

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Exploring energy demand and supply uncertainty: An exploration of uncertainty on drivers of energy demand and supply is indispensable for better understanding the prospects of long-tern climate stabilization. The RoSE study is the first of its kind to systematically explore the impact of economic growth, population and fossil fuel scarcity, in scenarios with and without climate policy, using a model ensemble. A feature of RoSE is the participation of five established integrated assessment modelling teams from three important regions in international climate policy negotiations: the EU, the USA and China.

Economic growth: Neither slow nor rapid economic growth …

Logistic Curves, Extraction Costs And Peak Oil, Robert J. Brecha

Physics Faculty Publications

Debates about the possibility of a near-term maximum in world oil production have become increasingly prominent over the past decade, with the focus often being on the quantification of geologically available and technologically recoverable amounts of oil in the ground. Economically, the important parameter is not a physical limit to resources in the ground, but whether market price signals and costs of extraction will indicate the efficiency of extracting conventional or nonconventional resources as opposed to making substitutions over time for other fuels and technologies. We present a hybrid approach to the peak-oil question with two models in which the …

Economics Of Nuclear Power And Climate Change Mitigation Policies, Nico Bauer, Robert J. Brecha, Gunnar Luderer

Physics Faculty Publications

The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive …

Variable Renewable Energy In Modeling Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios, Falko Ueckerdt, Robert J. Brecha, Gunnar Luderer, Patrick Sullivan, Eva Schmid, Nico Bauer, Diana Böttger

Physics Faculty Publications

This paper addresses the issue of how to account for short‐term temporal variability of renewable energy sources and power demand in long‐term climate change mitigation scenarios in energy‐economic models. An approach that captures in a stylized way the major challenges to the integration of variable renewable energy sources into power systems has been developed. As a first application this approach has been introduced to REMIND‐D, a hybrid energy‐economy model of Germany. An approximation of the residual load duration curve is implemented. The approximating function endogenously changes depending on the penetration and mix of variable renewable power. The approach can thus …

Logistic Curves, Extraction Costs And The Effective Size Of Oil Resources, Robert J. Brecha

Physics Faculty Publications

The size of potential fossil fuel resources is an issue of perennial interest and controversy. Fundamentally, there appears to be a conflict in interpretation of available data for both past and future extraction histories. As fossil-fuel prices rose dramatically over the past several years, the question of resources once again became acute. In this paper we concentrate on conventional and non-conventional oil resources and make four main points, with the overarching theme that one can determine an effective oil resource that represents significantly less availability for consumption than usually posited by tallying resources in place.

First, looking at oil production …

Establishing Building Recommissioning Priorities And Potential Energy Savings From Utility Energy Data, Kevin P. Hallinan, Philip Brodrick, Jessica Northridge, J. Kelly Kissock, Robert J. Brecha

Physics Faculty Publications

An energy reduction program for commercial buildings is implemented for a SW Ohio natural gas utility. The aim of this study is to demonstrate that historical utility data for individual building customers, along with knowledge of pertinent building information (square footage, year built, number of floors, height of floors, wall construction type, and use type) available in county auditor databases, could be used to identify the best candidate buildings for recommissioning in terms of energy savings and simple payback. A study is completed for all natural gas customers of a utility in Montgomery and Clinton counties in Ohio. A total …

Targeting Residential Energy Reduction For City Utilities Using Historical Electrical Utility Data And Readily Available Building Data, Kevin P. Hallinan, J. Kelly Kissock, Robert J. Brecha, Austin Mitchell

Physics Faculty Publications

Energy use data for the eight-year period 2003–2010 was analyzed for over 1200 single family residences in Village of Yellow Springs, Ohio. Electricity, natural gas, residential building, and weather databases are merged to permit determination of the energy intensity of each home in the village. The energy use intensity for each home is disaggregated into weather independent and weather dependent electric and natural gas use. This use is compared to typical baseline, cooling, and heating energy use for the region. From this comparison, priority homes are identified for energy reduction investment. Collective potential low cost energy reduction is estimated for …

Emissions Scenarios In The Face Of Fossil-Fuel Peaking, Robert J. Brecha

Physics Faculty Publications

Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. We propose in this paper that it is useful to look at a qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, to gain a sense of carbon emission bounds. Here we look at what may be considered a lower bound for 21st century emissions given two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the …