Physics Commons^™

Emissions Scenarios In The Face Of Fossil-Fuel Peaking, Robert Brecha

Robert J. Brecha

Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. We propose in this paper that it is useful to look at a qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, to gain a sense of carbon emission bounds. Here we look at what may be considered a lower bound for 21st century emissions given two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the …

Cost Optimization With Solar And Conventional Energy Production, Energy Storage, And Real Time Pricing, Ata Raziei, Kevin Hallinan, Robert Brecha

Robert J. Brecha

Research is presented that investigates the potential for solar power generation with battery energy storage for reducing the effective cost of energy delivered to residential customers if real time pricing is present. A linear optimization approach is developed based upon a two-step process. In step one, given a specified solar array area and battery capacity, the optimal means to meet loads based upon grid power, solar power, and/or battery power is determined. This analysis considers an expected lifespan of the solar panel. With these results established, in the next step, the capital costs for the solar arrays and batteries are …

The Carbon Rent Economics Of Climate Policy, Matthias Kalkuhl, Robert Brecha

Robert J. Brecha

By reducing the demand for fossil fuels, climate policy can reduce scarcity rents for fossil resource owners. As mitigation policies ultimately aim to limit emissions, a new scarcity for “space” in the atmosphere to deposit emissions is created. The associated scarcity rent, or climate rent (that is, for example, directly visible in permit prices under an emission trading scheme) can be higher or lower than the original fossil resource rent. In this paper, we analyze analytically and numerically the impact of mitigation targets, resource availability, backstop costs, discount rates and demand parameters on fossil resource rents and the climate rent. …

Analyzing Major Challenges Of Wind And Solar Variability In Power Systems, Falko Ueckerdt, Robert Brecha, Gunnar Luderer

Robert J. Brecha

Ambitious policy targets together with current and projected high growth rates indicate that future power systems will likely show substantially increased generation from renewable energy sources. A large share will come from the variable renewable energy (VRE) sources wind and solar photovoltaics (PV); however, integrating wind and solar causes challenges for existing power systems. In this paper we analyze three major integration challenges related to the structural matching of demand with the supply of wind and solar power: low capacity credit, reduced utilization of dispatchable plants, and over-produced generation. Based on residual load duration curves we define corresponding challenge variables …

Global Fossil Energy Markets And Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis With Remind, Nico Bauer, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Gunnar Luderer, Lavinia Baumstark, Robert Brecha, Ottmar Edenhofer, Elmar Kriegler

Robert J. Brecha

We analyze the dynamics of global fossil resource markets under different assumptions for the supply of fossil fuel resources, development pathways for energy demand, and climate policy settings. Resource markets, in particular the oil market, are characterized by a large discrepancy between costs of resource extraction and commodity prices on international markets. We explain this observation in terms of (a) the intertemporal scarcity rent, (b) regional price differentials arising from trade and transport costs, (c) heterogeneity and inertia in the extraction sector. These effects are captured by the REMIND model. We use the model to explore economic effects of changes …

Logistic Curves, Extraction Costs And Peak Oil, Robert Brecha

Robert J. Brecha

Debates about the possibility of a near-term maximum in world oil production have become increasingly prominent over the past decade, with the focus often being on the quantification of geologically available and technologically recoverable amounts of oil in the ground. Economically, the important parameter is not a physical limit to resources in the ground, but whether market price signals and costs of extraction will indicate the efficiency of extracting conventional or nonconventional resources as opposed to making substitutions over time for other fuels and technologies. We present a hybrid approach to the peak-oil question with two models in which the …

Boom Or Bust? Mapping Out The Known Unknowns Of Global Shale Gas Production Potential, Jérôme Hilaire, Nico Bauer, Robert Brecha

Robert J. Brecha

To assess the global production costs of shale gas, we combine global top-down data with detailed bottom-up information. Studies solely based on top-down approaches do not adequately account for the heterogeneity of shale gas deposits and hence, are unlikely to appropriately capture the extraction costs of shale gas. We design and provide an expedient bottom-up method based on publicly available US data to compute the levelized costs of shale gas extraction. Our results indicate the existence of economically attractive areas but also reveal a dramatic cost increase as lower-quality reservoirs are exploited. At the global level, our best estimate suggests …

Video Feature — Banned Books And The Stuart Rose Collection, Robert Brecha, Una Cadegan, John Inglis, Paul Morman

Robert J. Brecha

A faculty panel discussion in two sessions:

Session 1:
The Index: Una Cadegan (history) looks at the current scholarship on the Index of Forbidden Books.
Galileo: Robert Brecha (physics) highlights the banning of Galileo and observational science.

Session 2:
Thomas Aquinas: John Inglis (philosophy) speaks on the banning of Thomas Aquinas's Summa Theologica, the most important book in Catholic intellectual tradition.
Descartes and the Index of Forbidden Books: Paul Morman (history, Distinguished Service Professor) highlights the book by Descartes that he was not allowed to study while a student at UD in the 1960s.