Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Developing Prediction Regions For A Time Series Model For Hurricane Forecasting, William Cheman

Theses and Dissertations

In this thesis, a class of time series models for forecasting a hurricanes future position based on its previous positions and a generalized model of hurricane motion are examined and extended. Results of a literature review suggest that meteorological models continue to increase in complexity while few statistical approaches, such as linear regression, have been successfully applied. An exception is provided by a certain class of time series models that appear to forecast storms almost as well as current meteorological models without their tremendous complexity. A suggestion for enhancing the performance of these time series models is pursued through an …

Precipitation Gauge Testing On The Wasatch Plateau, Utah, During Early 1993, United States Department Of The Interior, Bureau Of Reclamation

Meterology

The Bureau of Reclamation performed an independent evaluation of an ETI (Electronic Techniques, Inc.) precipitation gauge at the High Altitude Site on the western slope of the Wasatch Plateau in central Utah. The ETI gauge could provide a desirable alternative to conventional recording gauges in several applications, including evaluation of cloud seeding projects, if it performs as advertised. The testing program was intended to determine its performance in a winter mountain environment. The ETI precipitation gauge proved to be reliable from time of installation in late November 1992 until removal in late March 1993. The only problem found was an …

Ua66/8/2 Climatic Extremes In Kentucky, Wku Kentucky Climate Center

WKU Archives Records

Kentucky Climate Center report number 28 Climatic Extremes in Kentucky.

An Alternative Representation Of The Ice Canopy For Calculating Microwave Brightness Temperatures Over A Thunderstorm, Bradley M. Muller, Henry E. Fuelberg, Eric A. Smith

Publications

Passive microwave brightness temperatures (T(B)'s) at 92 and 183 GHz from an aircraft thunderstorm overflight are compared with values calculated from radar-derived hydrometeor profiles and a modified proximity sounding. Two methods for modeling particles in the ice canopy are contrasted. The first is a ''traditional'' approach employing Marshall-Palmer ice spheres. The second, or ''alternative,'' method partitions 20% of the ice water content into a Marshall-Palmer component for graupel and hail, and 80% into a modified gamma spherical particle size distribution function representing ice crystals.

Results from the alternative approach are superior to those from the traditional method in the anvil …

A Methodology For Developing High Performance Computing Models: Storm-Scale Weather Prediction, Nikos Chrisochoides, Kelvin Droegemeier, Geoffrey C. Fox, Kim Mills, Ming Xue

Northeast Parallel Architecture Center

A methodology for developing future generations of a storm-scale weather prediction model for Massively Parallel Processing is described. The forecast model is the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS), a three-dimensional, fully compressible, non-hydrostatic predictive model. In the short term, the computational goals include developing a portable, scalable model for distributed memory SIMD and MIMD architectures, while preserving a high degree of modularity to support rapid design and validation, maintainability, educational goals and operational testing. Longer term computational goals include a parallel adaptive mesh refinement scheme. A FortranD/High Performance Fortran version of the ARPS provides portability in the current version of …