Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Monthly Paleostreamflow Reconstruction From Annual Tree-Ring Chronologies, James H. Stagge, David E. Rosenberg, R. J. Derose, Tammy M. Rittenour

Publications

Paleoclimate reconstructions are increasingly used to characterize annual climate variability prior to the instrumental record, to improve estimates of climate extremes, and to provide a baseline for climate-change projections. To date, paleoclimate records have seen limited engineering use to estimate hydrologic risks because water systems models and managers usually require streamflow input at the monthly scale. This study explores the hypothesis that monthly streamflows can be adequately modeled by statistically decomposing annual flow reconstructions. To test this hypothesis, a multiple linear regression model for monthly streamflow reconstruction is presented that expands the set of predictors to include annual streamflow reconstructions, …