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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Flood Risk From Extreme Events In Mexico, Adrián Pedrozo-Acuña, Pamela Iskra Mejía-Estrada, Juan Pablo Rodríguez-Rincón, Ramón Domínguez Mora, Fernando Jorge González-Villareal
Flood Risk From Extreme Events In Mexico, Adrián Pedrozo-Acuña, Pamela Iskra Mejía-Estrada, Juan Pablo Rodríguez-Rincón, Ramón Domínguez Mora, Fernando Jorge González-Villareal
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Flooding is the most common and damaging natural hazard faced by civilization, and flooding threats are likely to increase given current climate change predictions that suggest more intense hurricanes and precipitation. The latter has been recently experienced in the Mexican state of Guerrero, during the severe flood of September 2013. During this event, the heavy rainfall registered in 2 days (~700 mm) produced extreme river discharges that produced significant fluvial impacts and flooding in large areas of the city of Acapulco, causing severe damages and social disruption. In order to study the causes of this disaster, an integrated methodology to …
Uncertainty Propagation In A Hydro-Meteorological Approach: From The Cloud To The Flood Map., Juan Pablo Rodríguez-Rincón, José Agustín Breña-Naranjo, Adrián Pedrozo-Acuña
Uncertainty Propagation In A Hydro-Meteorological Approach: From The Cloud To The Flood Map., Juan Pablo Rodríguez-Rincón, José Agustín Breña-Naranjo, Adrián Pedrozo-Acuña
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Globally, it is widely known that floods remain the most frequent and devastating natural hazards. Likewise, there is recent evidence showing an increase in the number of extreme flood events observed around the world. Therefore, it is imperative to develop an integrated flood assessment framework that enables a better understanding of both, the generation of these events and the interaction of key variables within the hydro-meteorological system. The aim of this investigation is to study the propagation of meteorological uncertainty to a numerically estimated flood map. For such purpose, we utilise a cascade modelling approach comprised by a Numerical Weather …
Decision Support Tool For Hydraulic Reliability Based Design Of Water Distribution Networks, Nemanja Trifunovic
Decision Support Tool For Hydraulic Reliability Based Design Of Water Distribution Networks, Nemanja Trifunovic
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
The manuscript describes the decision support tool for design and hydraulic reliability assessment of water distribution networks. The reliability analyses that have been conducted on geometric-, hydraulic- and economic grounds all reflect the complexity of network resilience that is still difficult to generalise or classify, as well as it is impossible to asses without full integration of all three aspects. The tool that aims to achieve this integration processes a preselected seed of network sources and (demand) nodes prepared in EPANET without any pipe connection. It is composed of the modules for generation of various connectivity layouts by applying the …
Reliability Analysis Approach For Operations Planning Of Hydropower Systems, Jiyi Zhou, Ziad K. Shawwash, Daniel Archila, Paul Vassilev, Vladimir Plesa, Gillian Kong, Alaa Abdalla
Reliability Analysis Approach For Operations Planning Of Hydropower Systems, Jiyi Zhou, Ziad K. Shawwash, Daniel Archila, Paul Vassilev, Vladimir Plesa, Gillian Kong, Alaa Abdalla
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Many existing hydropower storage facilities were built decades ago and components of these aging infrastructure facilities have higher risk of failure. Insufficient capacity or forced outages of the spillway and other waterway passage facilities during flooding incident could potentially increase the probability of dam safety incidents leading to public safety concerns. Currently approaches used to assess the risk and uncertainty in operational decision making are mainly based on qualitative assessment and expert judgment and can be significantly improved by the development of a framework that formally incorporates both qualitative and quantitative reliability analysis methods. Event tree analysis and fault tree …
Reliability Of Simulated Discharges For Different Gauge Locations In A Semi Distributed Rainfall Runoff Model, Johannes Bellinger, Stefan Achleitner, Johannes Schöber, Friedrich Schöberl
Reliability Of Simulated Discharges For Different Gauge Locations In A Semi Distributed Rainfall Runoff Model, Johannes Bellinger, Stefan Achleitner, Johannes Schöber, Friedrich Schöberl
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
In terms of flood forecasting in alpine environments, predictions at different gauges as well as sites with exposed infrastructure within the catchment are required. The used semi-distributed hydrological model HQsim combines runoff formation and surface runoff routines with an implemented channel routing for river reaches. This allows the estimation of discharges at selected channel segments. As a case study a large alpine catchment with a size of 890 km² is used. The uncertainty in the discharge prediction is investigated at three discharge gauges located along the main river. The basis of our experimental set-up are 15,000 samples describing the prior …
A Comparison Between Heuristic, Statistical, And Data-Driven Methods In Landslide Susceptibility Assessment: An Application To The Briga And Giampilieri Catchments, Antonio Francipane, Elisa Arnone, Francesco Lo Conti, Claudio Puglisi, Leonardo Valerio Noto
A Comparison Between Heuristic, Statistical, And Data-Driven Methods In Landslide Susceptibility Assessment: An Application To The Briga And Giampilieri Catchments, Antonio Francipane, Elisa Arnone, Francesco Lo Conti, Claudio Puglisi, Leonardo Valerio Noto
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Susceptibility assessment concerning the estimation of areas prone to landslide is one of the most useful approach in the analysis of landslide hazard. Over the last years, in an attempt to find the best approach to evaluate landslide susceptibility, many methods have been developed. Among these, the heuristic, the statistical, and the data-driven approaches are very widespread, and they all are based on the concept that the conditions which led to landslide movements in the past will control the probability of movement occurrence in the future. The main disadvantage of the heuristic approach is its high level of subjectivity, since …
River Water Quality Modelling In Developing A Catchment Water Safety Plan, Jose Vieira, Jose Pinho
River Water Quality Modelling In Developing A Catchment Water Safety Plan, Jose Vieira, Jose Pinho
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
The primary aim of a catchment water safety plan is to reduce risks within the catchment to protect the quality of drinking water sources at the point of abstraction. Even where effective arrangements for catchment management and control have been implemented, unexpected deterioration in raw water quality can pose a risk to treated drinking water quality. Thus potential sources of pollution impacting the abstraction point should be identified and monitored. An important part of any catchment management strategy includes implementation of raw water monitoring programmes, targeted at the most likely microbiological challenges to water treatment. When combined with good monitoring …
Ensuring Reliable Measurements In Remote Aquatic Sensor Networks, Goncalo Joao Vitorino Jesus, Anabela Oliveira, Antonio Casimiro
Ensuring Reliable Measurements In Remote Aquatic Sensor Networks, Goncalo Joao Vitorino Jesus, Anabela Oliveira, Antonio Casimiro
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
A flood monitoring system comprises an extensive network of water sensors, a bundle of forecast simulations models, and a decision-support information system. A cascade of uncertainties present in each part of the system affects a reliable flood alert and response. The timeliness and quality of data gathering, used subsequently in forecasting models, is affected by the pervasive nature of the monitoring network where aquatic sensors are vulnerable to external disturbances affecting the accuracy of data acquisition. Existing solutions for aquatic monitoring are composed by heterogeneous sensors usually unable to ensure reliable measurements in complex scenarios, due to specific effects of …
Vulnerability Assessment Of Water Distribution Systems Using Directed And Undirected Graph Theory, Kegong Diao, Raziyeh Farmani, Guangtao Fu, David Butler
Vulnerability Assessment Of Water Distribution Systems Using Directed And Undirected Graph Theory, Kegong Diao, Raziyeh Farmani, Guangtao Fu, David Butler
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Vulnerability assessment is a promising approach to identifying critical components of complex systems. In such systems, critical components could be crucial links and strategic locations for management and control. Managing those components better could, in turn, improve or reinforce a system’s resilience to shock events. However, fully comprehensive vulnerability assessments cannot be guaranteed as enumerating all possible shock events in complex systems is computationally intensive and almost infeasible. Consequently, the important role of some components might be neglected. This paper explores the feasibility of using a dual approach vulnerability assessment for water distribution systems (WDSs). Specifically, complex network analysis (e.g. …
Stochastic Assessment Of Environmental Flows In Semiarid Environments, Cristina Aguilar, Marta Egüen, Jose María Perales, Miguel A. Losada, María José Polo
Stochastic Assessment Of Environmental Flows In Semiarid Environments, Cristina Aguilar, Marta Egüen, Jose María Perales, Miguel A. Losada, María José Polo
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
The regimen of environmental flows (EF) must be included as terms of environmental demand in the management of water resources. Even though there are numerous methods for the computation of EF, the criteria applied at different steps in the calculation process are quite subjective whereas the results are fixed values that must be meet by water planners. This study presents a friendly-user tool for the assessment of the probability of compliance of a certain EF scenario with the natural regimen in a semiarid area in southern Spain. 250 replications of a 25-yr period of different hydrological variables (rainfall, minimum and …
Data-Driven Surrogate Models For Flood Defence Failure Estimation : “Jarillon” Of Cali, Colombia Case Study, Juan Aguilar, Jord Warmink, Ralph Schielen, Suzanne Hulscher
Data-Driven Surrogate Models For Flood Defence Failure Estimation : “Jarillon” Of Cali, Colombia Case Study, Juan Aguilar, Jord Warmink, Ralph Schielen, Suzanne Hulscher
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
The city of Cali is the main urban center of the south-western part of Colombia. It is located along the Cauca river, the second largest in the country. At the moment, the embankment located along the left margin that protects the city is designed for a return period of 100 years. In this study is intended to make a probabilistic analysis for dike failure for the present state of this flood defence. The water levels inside the main stream are highly sensitive to the peak discharge of upstream near tributaries which must be included in the analysis. An existent hydrodynamic …
Exploring Behavioral Economics Concepts In Flood Forecast Decision-Making Under Uncertainty, Leonardo Alfonso, Schalk-Jan Van Andel
Exploring Behavioral Economics Concepts In Flood Forecast Decision-Making Under Uncertainty, Leonardo Alfonso, Schalk-Jan Van Andel
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
This research presents further exploration of the results obtained during the decision-making game “Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?”, which Ramos et al (2012) conducted at the EGU General Assembly 2012 in the city of Vienna. In that game, several cases of flood forecasts with and without uncertainty information were presented to the participants, together with choices of actions to take. As decision-makers, they had to decide whether to open or not a gate which was the inlet of a retention basin designed to protect a town and face the consequences of making a bad decision: if they decided …
Considering The Effect Of Uncertainty And Variability In The Synthetic Generation Of Influent Wastewater Time Series, Mansour Talebizadehsardari, Evangelia Belia, Peter A. Vanrolleghem
Considering The Effect Of Uncertainty And Variability In The Synthetic Generation Of Influent Wastewater Time Series, Mansour Talebizadehsardari, Evangelia Belia, Peter A. Vanrolleghem
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
The availability of influent wastewater time series is crucial for assessing the performance of a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) under dynamic flow and loading conditions. Given the difficulty of collecting sufficient data, synthetic generation may be the only option. Usually, the main constituents of the influent time series (e.g. flow, COD, TSS, TKN) show periodic, auto-correlation, and cross-correlation structures in time. Therefore researchers have used statistical models (e.g. auto-regressive time series models) for random generation of the influent time series. However, these regular patterns in time could be significantly distorted during rain events (wet weather flow (WWF) conditions) in which …
Newly Automated System For Integrated Assessment Of The Conditions Of Underwater Gas Pipelines, Oleg Ilinich, Vadim Pryahin
Newly Automated System For Integrated Assessment Of The Conditions Of Underwater Gas Pipelines, Oleg Ilinich, Vadim Pryahin
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
An underwater gas pipeline is the portion of the pipeline that crosses a river beneath its bottom. Underwater gas pipelines are subject to increasing dangers as time goes by. An accident at an underwater gas pipeline can lead to technological and environmental disaster on the scale of an entire region. Therefore, timely troubleshooting of all underwater gas pipelines in order to prevent any potential accidents will remain a pressing task for the industry. The most important aspect of resolving this challenge is the quality of the automated system in question. Now the industry doesn't have any automated system that fully …
Drihm - An Infrastructure To Advance Hydro-Meteorological Research, Bert Jagers, Antonio Parodi, Michael Schiffers, Nils Otto Vor Dem Gentschen Felde, Christian Straube, Andrea Clematis, Daniele D'Agostino, Quillon Harpham
Drihm - An Infrastructure To Advance Hydro-Meteorological Research, Bert Jagers, Antonio Parodi, Michael Schiffers, Nils Otto Vor Dem Gentschen Felde, Christian Straube, Andrea Clematis, Daniele D'Agostino, Quillon Harpham
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
One of the main challenges in hydro-meteorological research (HMR) is predicting the impact of weather and climate changes on the environment, society and economy, including local severe hazards such as floods and landslides. At the heart of this challenge lies the ability to have easy access to hydro-meteorological data and models, and facilitate the collaboration across discipline boundaries. Within the DRIHM project (Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology, www.drihm.eu, EC funded FP7 project 2011-2015) we develop a prototype e-Science environment to facilitate this collaboration and provide end-to-end HMR services (models, datasets, and post-processing tools) at the European level, with the ability …
Using Smart Grid Technologies To Protect Human Health In Water Distribution Systems, Graham Symmonds
Using Smart Grid Technologies To Protect Human Health In Water Distribution Systems, Graham Symmonds
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Since the introduction of the Safe Drinking Water Act, there has been marked reduction in the number of water-borne disease outbreaks attributed to water treatment systems. Over the same period, however, the percentage of disease outbreaks attributable to defects in the distribution system has increased exponentially. Interestingly, as a result of the continuous aging infrastructure employed by our water utilities, the number of water-borne disease cases has increased in the last decade. The smart grid for water can be used to significantly improve both the utility's understanding of water quality in the distribution system, but can dramatically increase the response …
Improvement Of The National Flood Early Warning System In Norway – Flood Level Warnings And Uncertainties, Péter Borsányi, Byman Hamududu, Sivachandran Navaratnam, Elin Langsholt
Improvement Of The National Flood Early Warning System In Norway – Flood Level Warnings And Uncertainties, Péter Borsányi, Byman Hamududu, Sivachandran Navaratnam, Elin Langsholt
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
This work describes the methods and procedures applied to improve the national flood warning system in Norway by including water level forecasts at non-gauged but important locations and information on the corresponding uncertainty. In this approach, only a subset of model variables (inputs) and parameters are treated as uncertain. It is found that visualization of the forecasts is challenging, and therefore a number of experimental solutions are discussed.
Quantification Of Rainfall Forecast Uncertainty And Its Impact On Flood Forecasting, Niels Van Steenbergen, Patrick Willems
Quantification Of Rainfall Forecast Uncertainty And Its Impact On Flood Forecasting, Niels Van Steenbergen, Patrick Willems
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Rainfall forecast errors are considered to be the key source of uncertainty in flood forecasting. To quantify the rainfall forecast uncertainty itself and its impact on the total flood forecast uncertainty, a Monte-Carlo based statistical method has been developed. This method takes into account the dependency of the rainfall forecast error with the lead time and the rainfall amount. The forecasted rainfall errors are described by truncated normal distributions, allowing to quantify the full uncertainty distribution of the deterministic rainfall forecast. By means of Monte-Carlo sampling and taking the forecast error autocorrelation into account, the impact of the rainfall forecast …
Analysis Of Combined Effects Of Input Uncertainty And Parameter Uncertainty In Hydrological Modelling, Qiang Dai, Dawei Han, Miguel A. Rico-Ramirez
Analysis Of Combined Effects Of Input Uncertainty And Parameter Uncertainty In Hydrological Modelling, Qiang Dai, Dawei Han, Miguel A. Rico-Ramirez
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Uncertainty of a hydrological model mainly stems from a lack of understanding and knowledge about the real hydrological process. Input uncertainty and parameter uncertainty are considered to be the two major uncertainty sources of hydrological model. Until now, enormous studies have aimed at calibrating model parameters and estimating model uncertainty. However, these studies mainly ascribe the model output uncertainty to the unknown non-physical parameters. In fact, rainfall, especially of weather radar rainfall, is widely recognized as a main error source. There are seldom studies that aim to explicitly describe model input and parameter uncertainty simultaneously. For this reason, in this …
Study On Optimization Of The Integrated Operation Of Dams Using Ensemble Prediction, Satoru Oishi, Hiroko Masuda
Study On Optimization Of The Integrated Operation Of Dams Using Ensemble Prediction, Satoru Oishi, Hiroko Masuda
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Flood control is one of the most important issues of reservoir operation. Rivers in island countries like Japan, Philippines and Indonesia that have smaller reservoirs than continental countries needs short term reservoir operation for flood control. In Japan, typhoons give dominant amount of water to reservoirs. Pre-release of water which makes effective use of the capacity of a reservoir requires the rainfall amount forecast (hyetograph). Therefore, weather forecast of typhoons is indispensable for flood control. Masuda and Oishi (2013) developed the reservoir control operation model using stochastic dynamic programming with one week ensemble weather forecast. One week ensemble forecast consists …
Uncertainty Characterization Of A Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model By Using Grey Numbers, Stefano Alvisi, Anna Bernini, Marco Franchini
Uncertainty Characterization Of A Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model By Using Grey Numbers, Stefano Alvisi, Anna Bernini, Marco Franchini
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
A procedure for characterizing global uncertainty of a rainfall-runoff simulation model based on using grey numbers is presented. By using the grey numbers technique the uncertainty is characterized by an interval; once the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model have been properly defined as grey numbers, by using the grey mathematics and functions it is possible to obtain simulated discharges in the form of grey numbers whose envelope defines a band which represents the vagueness/uncertainty associated with the simulated variable. The grey numbers representing the model parameters are estimated in such a way that the band obtained from the envelope of …
Uncertainty Assessment Of The Integrated Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System Designed For The Nattai River Catchment, Agnes Sakal, James E. Ball, Douglas Graham, Alan Seed
Uncertainty Assessment Of The Integrated Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System Designed For The Nattai River Catchment, Agnes Sakal, James E. Ball, Douglas Graham, Alan Seed
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
An integrated hydrological ensemble prediction system (IHEPS) is providing a probabilistic assessment of future stream flow predicitons replacing the traditional forecasting method of a single deterministic flow forecast. The ensemble forecasting system includes multi model approaches where the hydrological forecasts model is driven by weather prediction model outputs to generate an ensemble stream flow forecast predictions. The performance of the IHEP systems intent to increase the credibility of the stream flow forecast predictions at the point of interest. However, quality of the stream flow forecast predictions are influenced by uncertainties originated from various sources in the forecasting chain. This paper …
Assessment Of The Sensitivity Of Gompitz, Marius Møller Rokstad, Yves Le Gat, Rita Maria Ugarelli
Assessment Of The Sensitivity Of Gompitz, Marius Møller Rokstad, Yves Le Gat, Rita Maria Ugarelli
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Decision support for sewer rehabilitation programs is dependent on reliable information about the asset conditions. Inference about the condition development can be made by combining condition observations with deterioration forecasting models. GompitZ is a Non-Homogenous Markov Chain model, which enables waste water utilities to predict the sewer deterioration at a network segment level, based on closed-circuit TV (CCTV) inspection and normalized condition grading. The predictions can be used to assess investment needs for the sewer systems. Successful calibration and prediction is however dependent on the validity of the model assumptions, sufficient amounts of CCTV observations, and that the condition grading …
Uncertainty, Flexibility And Design: Real-Options-Based Assessment Of Urban Blue Green Infrastructure, Vladan Babovic
Uncertainty, Flexibility And Design: Real-Options-Based Assessment Of Urban Blue Green Infrastructure, Vladan Babovic
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Climate change and rapid urbanization requires a new long-term forward assessment of sustainable urban water management projects. This challenge is further complicated by difficulties of assessing sustainable designs and various design scenarios from an economic standpoint. A conventional approach for economic assessment of urban water management projects, such as Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis, fails to account for uncertainties associated with rainfall intensities, thermal stresses, as well as other uncertainties associated with future changes in technological domains. Such an approach also fails to include the value of flexibility, which enables managers to adapt and reconfigure systems over time as uncertainty …
Stability Criterion For A Flooded Human Body Under Various Ground Slopes, Junqiang Xia, Roger Falconer, Peng Guo, Anchuan Gu
Stability Criterion For A Flooded Human Body Under Various Ground Slopes, Junqiang Xia, Roger Falconer, Peng Guo, Anchuan Gu
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Extreme flood events often lead to heavy casualties, with flood risk to humans varying with the flow conditions, the body attributes, and the ground slopes. Therefore, it is important to propose an appropriate stability criterion for a flooded human body under various ground slopes. In this study, a formula for the incipient velocity of a flooded human body at toppling instability was derived, based on a mechanics-based analysis. The effect of body buoyancy and the influence of a non-uniform upstream velocity profile acting on the flooded human body under a sloping ground were considered in the formula derivation. 186 tests …
Adaptive Modeling Of Water Supply Networks For Improved Practical Applicability Of Hydraulic Online-Simulation, Jochen W. Deuerlein, Idel Montalvo Arango, Olivier A. Piller, Hervé Ung, Denis Gilbert
Adaptive Modeling Of Water Supply Networks For Improved Practical Applicability Of Hydraulic Online-Simulation, Jochen W. Deuerlein, Idel Montalvo Arango, Olivier A. Piller, Hervé Ung, Denis Gilbert
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Online-Simulation of water distribution networks allows for estimating the current state of the entire network in near real-time. Measurement data coming from sensors at selected positions in the real network are used for driving a mathematical simulation model. Therefore the information gained from the measurements is extended and covers the whole system. As part of online monitoring or decision support systems online-simulations have multiple applications in operations and control of water supply networks. Although sensors and techniques for data transfer as well as mathematical simulation techniques are highly developed the practical applicability of online-simulations for decision support in large networks …
The Typical Organic Pollutants Health Risk Research Of The Main Source Water In Yellow River Basin, Gao Jijun
The Typical Organic Pollutants Health Risk Research Of The Main Source Water In Yellow River Basin, Gao Jijun
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Although the contamination of the organic pollutants had been reported to occur in the Yellow River basin, few studies had been done on the source water contamination and health risk of Yellow River basin. To understand the typical organic pollutant contamination status of the main source water in Yellow River basin, samples were collected from fifty source water points (including reservoir and river) in Yellow River basin. The samples were analyzed for the representative organic pollutants, including Benzene homology, Chlorobenzene compounds, organophosphorous pesticides, and Nitrobenzene compounds, total 17 compounds. It was observed that the concentrations of the 17 compounds in …
Does The Risk Of Groundwater Depletion Drive Tube-Well Technology Adoption: A Case Of Pakistan, Arif Watto, Amin Mugera
Does The Risk Of Groundwater Depletion Drive Tube-Well Technology Adoption: A Case Of Pakistan, Arif Watto, Amin Mugera
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
We employ a moment-based approach to empirically analyse farmer’s decisions about adoption of tube-well technology under depleting groundwater resources using a farm level data from 200 farming households in the Punjab province, Pakistan. The results indicate that the higher the expected profit the greater the probability of adoption. Similarly, with increasing variance the probability of adopting tube-well increases significantly indicating that farmers choose to adopt tube-well technology in order to hedge against production risks. Statistical non-significant the third moment i.e., skewness indicates that farmer generally do not consider downside yield risk when decide to adopt tube-well technology whereas highly significant …
Decision Support For Flood Control Operation Of A Multi-Purpose Reservoir Considering Operational One-Week Ensemble Forecast Of Precipitation, Yuya Nishioka, Daisuke Nohara, Tomoharu Hori, Yoshinobu Sato
Decision Support For Flood Control Operation Of A Multi-Purpose Reservoir Considering Operational One-Week Ensemble Forecast Of Precipitation, Yuya Nishioka, Daisuke Nohara, Tomoharu Hori, Yoshinobu Sato
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
atoMulti-purpose reservoirs, which are operated for both of flood control and water use purposes, play an important role in water resources management. Consideration of operational hydrological predictions can potentially provide an improvement in operations of a multi-purpose reservoir by allowing adaptive operation according to the predicted future condition of the reservoir and the target river basin. In this paper, a decision support tool for flood control operation of a multi-purpose reservoir considering middle-range operational ensemble prediction is proposed. One-week Ensemble Forecast of precipitation, which is provided by Japan Meteorological Agency with 51 ensemble members for the coming eight days, is …