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Faculty Publications

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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Optimizing Cybersecurity Budgets With Attacksimulation, Alexander Master, George Hamilton, J. Eric Dietz Nov 2022

Optimizing Cybersecurity Budgets With Attacksimulation, Alexander Master, George Hamilton, J. Eric Dietz

Faculty Publications

Modern organizations need effective ways to assess cybersecurity risk. Successful cyber attacks can result in data breaches, which may inflict significant loss of money, time, and public trust. Small businesses and non-profit organizations have limited resources to invest in cybersecurity controls and often do not have the in-house expertise to assess their risk. Cyber threat actors also vary in sophistication, motivation, and effectiveness. This paper builds on the previous work of Lerums et al., who presented an AnyLogic model for simulating aspects of a cyber attack and the efficacy of controls in a generic enterprise network. This paper argues that …

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Improving Data-Driven Infrastructure Degradation Forecast Skill With Stepwise Asset Condition Prediction Models, Kurt R. Lamm, Justin D. Delorit, Michael N. Grussing, Steven J. Schuldt Aug 2022

Improving Data-Driven Infrastructure Degradation Forecast Skill With Stepwise Asset Condition Prediction Models, Kurt R. Lamm, Justin D. Delorit, Michael N. Grussing, Steven J. Schuldt

Faculty Publications

Organizations with large facility and infrastructure portfolios have used asset management databases for over ten years to collect and standardize asset condition data. Decision makers use these data to predict asset degradation and expected service life, enabling prioritized maintenance, repair, and renovation actions that reduce asset life-cycle costs and achieve organizational objectives. However, these asset condition forecasts are calculated using standardized, self-correcting distribution models that rely on poorly-fit, continuous functions. This research presents four stepwise asset condition forecast models that utilize historical asset inspection data to improve prediction accuracy: (1) Slope, (2) Weighted Slope, (3) Condition-Intelligent Weighted Slope, and (4) …

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Pilot Development: An Empirical Mixed-Method Analysis, Jonathan Slottje, Jason Anderson, John M. Dickens, Adam D. Reiman Jun 2022

Pilot Development: An Empirical Mixed-Method Analysis, Jonathan Slottje, Jason Anderson, John M. Dickens, Adam D. Reiman

Faculty Publications

Purpose — Pilot upgrade training is critical to aircraft and passenger safety. This study aims to identify variances in the US Air Force C-130J pilot upgrade training based on geographic location and provide a model to enhance policy that will impact future pilot training efforts that lower cost and increase operator quality and proficiency.
Design/methodology/approach — This research employed a mixed-method approach. First, the authors collected data and analyzed 90 C-130J pilots' aviation records and then contextualized this analysis with interviews of experts. Finally, the authors present a modified version of Six Sigma's define–measure–analyze–improve–control (DMAIC) that identifies and reduces the …

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Transportation Service Level Impact On Aircraft Availability, Vincent Mclean, Adam D. Reiman Jun 2022

Transportation Service Level Impact On Aircraft Availability, Vincent Mclean, Adam D. Reiman

Faculty Publications

Purpose — Aircraft fail to meet mission capable rate goals due to a lack of supply of aircraft parts in inventory where the aircraft breaks. This triggers an order at the repair location. To maximize mission capable rate, the time from order to delivery needs to be minimized. The purpose of this research is to examine the case of three airfields for the order to delivery time of mission critical aircraft parts for a specific aircraft type. Design/methodology/approach — This research captured data from three information systems to assess the order fulfillment process. The data were analyzed to determine the …

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Unrestricted Factor Analysis: A Powerful Alternative To Confirmatory Factor Analysis, Jan-Benedict E.M. Steenkamp, Alberto Maydeu-Olivares Jun 2022

Unrestricted Factor Analysis: A Powerful Alternative To Confirmatory Factor Analysis, Jan-Benedict E.M. Steenkamp, Alberto Maydeu-Olivares

Faculty Publications

The gold standard for modeling multiple indicator measurement data is confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), which has many statistical advantages over traditional exploratory factor analysis (EFA). In most CFA applications, items are assumed to be pure indicators of the construct they intend to measure. However, despite our best efforts, this is often not the case. Cross-loadings incorrectly set to zero can only be expressed through the correlations between the factors, leading to biased factor correlations and to biased structural (regression) parameter estimates. This article introduces a third approach, which has emerged in the psychometric literature, viz., unrestricted factor analysis (UFA). UFA …

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Agile Software Development: Creating A Cost Of Delay Framework For Air Force Software Factories, J. Goljan, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Scott Drylie, Edward D. White Jan 2021

Agile Software Development: Creating A Cost Of Delay Framework For Air Force Software Factories, J. Goljan, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Scott Drylie, Edward D. White

Faculty Publications

The Air Force software development environment is experiencing a paradigm shift. The 2019 Defense Innovation Board concluded that speed and cycle time must become the most important software metrics if the US military is to maintain its advantage over adversaries.1 This article proposes utilizing a cost-o­f-d­elay (CoD) framework to prioritize projects toward optimizing readiness. Cost-­of-d­elay is defined as the economic impact resulting from a delaying product delivery or, said another way, opportunity cost. In principle, CoD assesses the negative impacts resulting from changes to the priority of a project.

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A Learning Curve Model Accounting For The Flattening Effect In Production Cycles, Evan R. Boone, John J. Elshaw, Clay M. Koschnick, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Adedeji B. Badiru Jan 2021

A Learning Curve Model Accounting For The Flattening Effect In Production Cycles, Evan R. Boone, John J. Elshaw, Clay M. Koschnick, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Adedeji B. Badiru

Faculty Publications

We investigate production cost estimates to identify and model modifications to a prescribed learning curve. Our new model examines the learning rate as a decreasing function over time as opposed to a constant rate that is frequently used. The purpose of this research is to determine whether a new learning curve model could be implemented to reduce the error in cost estimates for production processes. A new model was created that mathematically allows for a “flattening effect,” which typically occurs later in the production process. This model was then compared to Wright’s learning curve, which is a popular method used …

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The Analytics Managers Ultimate Guide For Working With Universities, Robert J. Mcgrath Mar 2020

The Analytics Managers Ultimate Guide For Working With Universities, Robert J. Mcgrath

Faculty Publications

The challenges organizations are having related to finding (and retaining) deep analytical talent did not materialize out of thin air…or overnight. Analytics and Data science – and the role of the analytics professional – has evolved over the last several decades and has been fueled by our ability to capture and process increasingly larger and more complex variations of data and our desire to gain increasingly granular insights to fuel innovation and creativity. While many organizations recognize that a partnership with a university can be a resource to many of these challenges, the best way to start a conversation with …

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Developmental Test And Requirements Best Practices Of Successful Information Systems Efforts Using Agile Methods, Jeremy D. Kramer, Torrey J. Wagner Jan 2019

Developmental Test And Requirements Best Practices Of Successful Information Systems Efforts Using Agile Methods, Jeremy D. Kramer, Torrey J. Wagner

Faculty Publications

This article provides insights into the current state of developmental testing (DT) and requirements management in Department of Defense information systems employing Agile development. The authors describe the study methodology and provide an overview of Agile development and testing. Insights are described for requirements, detailed planning, test execution, and reporting. This work articulates best practices related to DT and requirements management strategies for programs employing modernized Software Development Life Cycle practices.

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Unmasking Cost Growth Behavior: A Longitudinal Study, Cory N. D'Amico, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Scott R. Kozlak Jan 2018

Unmasking Cost Growth Behavior: A Longitudinal Study, Cory N. D'Amico, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Scott R. Kozlak

Faculty Publications

This article examines how cost growth factors (CGF) change over a program’s acquisition life cycle for 36 Department of Defense aircraft programs. Starting from Milestone B, the authors examine CGFs at five gateways: Critical Design Review, First Flight (FF), the end of Developmental Test and Evaluation (DT&E), Initial Operational Capability, and Full Operational Capability. Each CGF is assigned a color rating based upon the program’s cost growth: Green (low), Amber (moderate), or Red (high). Significant findings include dependencies among similar CGF color ratings and cost growth occurring primarily between FF and the end of DT&E during a program’s life cycle.

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Linking Sustainability To Quality Management And Firm Performance, Rajat Mishra, Randy Napier Jan 2015

Linking Sustainability To Quality Management And Firm Performance, Rajat Mishra, Randy Napier

Faculty Publications

Environmental management practices have evolved significantly over the past two decades. During that time, sustainable operations management practices have purportedly made positive contributions to overall firm performance. This paper develops two conceptual frameworks regarding the relationships among specific elements of environmental management, quality management, and firm performance. We suggest that innovation in quality management mediates the relationship between design for environment and firm performance, and that statistical process control techniques moderate the relationship between environmental management systems and firm performance. We identify future research possibilities, based on these frameworks, to inform scholarly research and practice in environmental management and quality …

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Enhancing The Communication Competency Of Business Undergraduates: A Consumer Socialization Perspective, K. C. Gehrt, M. O'Brien, David Mease Mar 2009

Enhancing The Communication Competency Of Business Undergraduates: A Consumer Socialization Perspective, K. C. Gehrt, M. O'Brien, David Mease

Faculty Publications

Explaining how individuals acquire the necessary skills and knowledge to effectively participate in society is often accomplished through Socialization Theory. We investigate numerous socialization agents and their relationship with the communication competency of university business majors. Communication competency (reading, writing, and verbal) was measured via both a standardized skill test and self report. Exploratory analysis was conducted upon high and low communication competency groups that were identified via cluster analysis. Our findings generally indicate the most important socialization agents are via personal interactions whereas the least important socialization agents are influencing via primarily electronic or media-based methods.

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Evidence Contrary To The Statistical View Of Boosting, David Mease, A. Wyner Jan 2008

Evidence Contrary To The Statistical View Of Boosting, David Mease, A. Wyner

Faculty Publications

The statistical perspective on boosting algorithms focuses on optimization, drawing parallels with maximum likelihood estimation for logistic regression. In this paper we present empirical evidence that raises questions about this view. Although the statistical perspective provides a theoretical framework within which it is possible to derive theorems and create new algorithms in general contexts, we show that there remain many unanswered important questions. Furthermore, we provide examples that reveal crucial flaws in the many practical suggestions and new methods that are derived from the statistical view. We perform carefully designed experiments using simple simulation models to illustrate some of these …

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Boosted Classification Trees And Class Probability/Quantile Estimation, David Mease, A. Wyner, A. Buja Jan 2007

Boosted Classification Trees And Class Probability/Quantile Estimation, David Mease, A. Wyner, A. Buja

Faculty Publications

The standard by which binary classifiers are usually judged, misclassification error, assumes equal costs of misclassifying the two classes or, equivalently, classifying at the 1/2 quantile of the conditional class probability function P[y = 1jx]. Boosted classification trees are known to perform quite well for such problems. In this article we consider the use of standard, off-the-shelf boosting for two more general problems: 1) classification with unequal costs or, equivalently, classification at quantiles other than 1/2, and 2) estimation of the conditional class probability function P[y = 1jx]. We first examine whether the latter problem, estimation of P[y = 1jx], …

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Comment: Boosting Algorithms: Regularization, Prediction And Model Fitting, A. Buja, David Mease, A. Wyner Jan 2007

Comment: Boosting Algorithms: Regularization, Prediction And Model Fitting, A. Buja, David Mease, A. Wyner

Faculty Publications

The authors are doing the readers of Statistical Science a true service with a well-written and up-to-date overview of boosting that originated with the seminal algorithms of Freund and Schapire. Equally, we are grateful for high-level software that will permit a larger readership to experiment with, or simply apply, boosting-inspired model fitting. The authors show us a world of methodology that illustrates how a fundamental innovation can penetrate every nook and cranny of statistical thinking and practice. They introduce the reader to one particular interpretation of boosting and then give a display of its potential with extensions from classification (where …

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