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Full-Text Articles in Life Sciences

Do We Need Demographic Data To Forecast Plant Population Dynamics?, Andrew T. Tredennick Nov 2016

Do We Need Demographic Data To Forecast Plant Population Dynamics?, Andrew T. Tredennick

Wildland Resources Faculty Publications

  1. Rapid environmental change has generated growing interest in forecasts of future population trajectories. Traditional population models built with detailed demographic observations from one study site can address the impacts of environmental change at particular locations, but are difficult to scale up to the landscape and regional scales relevant to management decisions. An alternative is to build models using population-level data that are much easier to collect over broad spatial scales than individual-level data. However, it is unknown whether models built using population-level data adequately capture the effects of density-dependence and environmental forcing that are necessary to generate skillful forecasts.
  2. Here ...


Forecasting Climate Change Impacts On Plant Populations Over Large Spatial Extents, Andrew T. Tredennick, Mevi B. Hooten, Cameron L. Aldridge, Collin G. Homer, Andrew R. Kleinhesselink, Peter Adler Oct 2016

Forecasting Climate Change Impacts On Plant Populations Over Large Spatial Extents, Andrew T. Tredennick, Mevi B. Hooten, Cameron L. Aldridge, Collin G. Homer, Andrew R. Kleinhesselink, Peter Adler

Wildland Resources Faculty Publications

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. We overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates in the ...


Forecasting Climate Change Impacts On Plant Populations Over Large Spatial Extents, Andrew T. Tredennick, Mevin B. Hooten, Cameron L. Aldridge, Collin G. Homer, Andrew R. Kleinhesselink, Peter B. Adler Oct 2016

Forecasting Climate Change Impacts On Plant Populations Over Large Spatial Extents, Andrew T. Tredennick, Mevin B. Hooten, Cameron L. Aldridge, Collin G. Homer, Andrew R. Kleinhesselink, Peter B. Adler

Wildland Resources Faculty Publications

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. We overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates in the ...


The Impact Of Climate Change On Inland Recreational Fishing, Lael Gilbert, Jordan W. Smith Oct 2016

The Impact Of Climate Change On Inland Recreational Fishing, Lael Gilbert, Jordan W. Smith

All Current Publications

This fact sheet reviews the state of scientific knowledge regarding how climate change can impact inland recreational fishing. Climate change impacts inland recreational fishers in three dominant ways: 1) by affecting fish abundance and diversity; 2) by altering environmental conditions at inland recreational fishing sites; and 3) through indirect management actions and policies put in place to mitigate the undesirable impacts of climate change on fish species and inland recreational fishing settings.


How Will Climate Change Affect Freshwater Fishing?, Lael Gilbert, Jordan W. Smith Oct 2016

How Will Climate Change Affect Freshwater Fishing?, Lael Gilbert, Jordan W. Smith

All Current Publications

This fact sheet reviews how climate change can affect freshwater fishing in the United States. Climate change can affect the availability and diversity of target species, the environmental and aesthetic quality of fishing sites, as well as the policies used to manage freshwater fishing.


How Will Climate Change Affect Winter Recreation? Recent Research From Northern Minnesota, Lael Gilbert, Jordan W. Smith, Mae Davenport Oct 2016

How Will Climate Change Affect Winter Recreation? Recent Research From Northern Minnesota, Lael Gilbert, Jordan W. Smith, Mae Davenport

All Current Publications

This fact sheet reviews recent research examining how winter-based outdoor recreation along the North Shore of Lake Superior will be affected by climate change. The research revealed the majority of outdoor recreationists who visit the region now won’t change their travel plans as temperatures increase and the snow and ice thins out. However, a substantial number of outdoor recreationists indicated they will visit the region more often in the future. This is largely due to longer shoulder seasons, which support these individuals’ preferred outdoor recreational activities. Knowing how outdoor recreationists’ behavioral responses to climate change vary will help community ...


Forecasting Climate Change Impacts On Plant Populations Over Large Spatial Extent, Andrew T. Tredennick, Mevin B. Hooten, Cameron L. Aldridge, Collin G. Homer, Andrew R. Kleinhesselink, Peter B. Adler Jul 2016

Forecasting Climate Change Impacts On Plant Populations Over Large Spatial Extent, Andrew T. Tredennick, Mevin B. Hooten, Cameron L. Aldridge, Collin G. Homer, Andrew R. Kleinhesselink, Peter B. Adler

Wildland Resources Faculty Publications

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. We overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates in the ...


A Multiple‐Scale Assessment Of Long‐Term Aspen Persistence And Elevational Range Shifts In The Colorado Front Range, Mario Bretfeld, Scott B. Franklin, Robert K. Peet May 2016

A Multiple‐Scale Assessment Of Long‐Term Aspen Persistence And Elevational Range Shifts In The Colorado Front Range, Mario Bretfeld, Scott B. Franklin, Robert K. Peet

Aspen Bibliography

Aspen forests and woodlands are some of the most species‐rich forest communities in the northern hemisphere. Changing climate, altered disturbance regimes, land use, and increased herbivore pressure threaten these forests both in Eurasia and North America. In addition, rapid mortality dubbed “Sudden Aspen Decline” is a concern for aspen's long‐term presence in the western United States, especially Colorado and Utah. Yet it is still unclear whether aspen is persistent or declining at the landscape scale. We assessed aspen persistence at different spatial scales in the Colorado Front Range by resampling 89 plots containing aspen from among 305 ...


Rapid Savanna Response To Changing Precipitation Intensity, Ryan S. Berry May 2016

Rapid Savanna Response To Changing Precipitation Intensity, Ryan S. Berry

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations

As the atmosphere warms, precipitation events are likely to become less frequent but more intense. While extensive efforts have been made to understand how changes in mean annual precipitation will affect plant growth, particularly in semi-arid systems, relatively little is known about how increasing precipitation intensity will affect plant growth and hydrologic cycles. A recent study by Kulmatiski and Beard (2013) found that small increases in precipitation intensity increased woody plant growth and decreased grass growth in a three-year experiment in a savanna system, Kruger National Park. Here we report results from the following two years of that experiment. Due ...


A Spatiotemporal Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak Model Predicting Severity, Cycle Period, And Invasion Speed, Jacob P. Duncan May 2016

A Spatiotemporal Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak Model Predicting Severity, Cycle Period, And Invasion Speed, Jacob P. Duncan

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae), a tree-killing bark beetle, has historically been part of the normal disturbance regime in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests. In recent years, warm winters and summers have allowed MPB populations to achieve synchronous emergence and successful attacks, resulting in widespread population outbreaks and resultant tree mortality across western North America. We develop an age-structured forest demographic model that incorporates temperature-dependent MPB infestations: the Susceptible-Infested-Juvenile (SIJ) model. Stability of fixed points is analyzed as a function of population growth rates, and indicates the existence of periodic outbreaks that intensify as growth rates increase. We ...