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Assessing Climate Variability Effects On Dengue Incidence In San Juan, Puerto Rico, Pablo Méndez-Lázaro, Frank E. Muller-Karger, Daniel Otis, Matthew J Mccarthy, Marisol Peña-Orellana

Marine Science Faculty Publications

We test the hypothesis that climate and environmental conditions are becoming favorable for dengue transmission in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Sea Level Pressure (SLP), Mean Sea Level (MSL), Wind, Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Air Surface Temperature (AST), Rainfall, and confirmed dengue cases were analyzed. We evaluated the dengue incidence and environmental data with Principal Component Analysis, Pearson correlation coefficient, Mann-Kendall trend test and logistic regressions. Results indicated that dry days are increasing and wet days are decreasing. MSL is increasing, posing higher risk of dengue as the perimeter of the San Juan Bay estuary expands and shorelines move inland. Warming …