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British-Isles; Isostatic-Adjustment; Coastal Wetlands; Projections; Atlantic; Impacts; Climate; Europe; Model; Rates
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Full-Text Articles in Life Sciences
Predicting Marsh Vulnerability To Sea-Level Rise Using Holocene Relative Sea-Level Data, Bp Horton, I Shennan, Sl Bradley, N Cahill, Matthew L. Kirwan, Re Kopp, Ta Shaw
Predicting Marsh Vulnerability To Sea-Level Rise Using Holocene Relative Sea-Level Data, Bp Horton, I Shennan, Sl Bradley, N Cahill, Matthew L. Kirwan, Re Kopp, Ta Shaw
VIMS Articles
Tidal marshes rank among Earth's vulnerable ecosystems, which will retreat if future rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR) exceed marshes' ability to accrete vertically. Here, we assess the limits to marsh vulnerability by analyzing >780 Holocene reconstructions of tidal marsh evolution in Great Britain. These reconstructions include both transgressive (tidal marsh retreat) and regressive (tidal marsh expansion) contacts. The probability of a marsh retreat was conditional upon Holocene rates of RSLR, which varied between -7.7 and 15.2 mm/yr. Holocene records indicate that marshes are nine times more likely to retreat than expand when RSLR rates are >= 7.1 mm/yr. Coupling …