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Challenges In Predicting The Future Distributions Of Invasive Plant Species, Chad C. Jones

Botany Faculty Publications

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict distributions of invasive species. If successful, these models can help managers target limited resources for monitoring and controlling invasive species to areas of high invasion risk. Model accuracy is usually determined using current species distributions, but because invasive species are not at equilibrium with the environment, high current accuracy may not indicate high future accuracy. I used 1982 species distribution data from Bolleswood Natural Area, Connecticut, USA, to create SDMs for two forest invaders, Celastrus orbiculatus and Rosa multiflora. I then used more recent data, from 1992 and 2002, as validation …