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The Curious Incident Of The Falling Win Rate: Individual Vs System-Level Justification And The Rule Of Law, Peter Siegelman, Alexandra Lahav

Faculty Articles and Papers

For forty quarters starting in 1985, the plaintiff win rate in adjudicated civil cases in federal courts fell almost continuously, from 70% to 30%, where it remained - albeit with increased volatility - for the next twenty years. This Essay explores the reasons for this decline and the need for systemic explanations for the phenomenon. Approximately 60% of the fall could be attributable to the changing makeup of the federal docket, but that leaves 40% of the fall (that is, a win rate decline of 14 percentage points over a ten year period) unaccounted for. We show that the most …