Risk Analysis Commons^™

Starting Radial Subdiffusion From A Central Point Through A Diverging Medium (A Sphere): Heat-Balance Integral Method, Jordan Hristov

Jordan Hristov

The work presents an integral solution of the time-fractional subdiffusion equation as alternative approach to those employing hypergeometric functions. The integral solution suggests a preliminary defined profile with unknown coefficients and the concept of penetration (boundary layer) well known from the heat diffusion and hydrodynamics. The profile satisfies the boundary conditions imposed at the boundary of the boundary layer that allows its coefficients to be expressed through the boundary layer depth as unique parameter describing the profile. The technique is demonstrated by a solution of a time fractional radial equation concerning anomalous diffusion from a central point source in a …

Smart Growth In Dumb Places: Sustainability, Disaster, And The Future Of The American City, Lisa Grow Sun

BYU Law Review

One of the many lessons of the recent earthquake and tsunami in Japan is that we cannot mitigate disaster risk through building codes and other structural solutions alone. Location is key to a community’s natural hazard vulnerability. Consequently, the most far-reaching and important question for disaster mitigation today is where we will channel the growth that will be needed to accommodate our expanding population. Yet, both environmental scholars and policymakers are promoting sustainability initiatives that will channel our country’s future growth into existing urban areas that are already extremely vulnerable to disaster. Indeed, many of these policies - and the …

Transient Flow Of A Generalized Second Grade Fluid Due To A Constant Surface Shear Stress: An Approximate Integral-Balance Solution, Jordan Hristov

Jordan Hristov

Integral balance solution to start-up problem of a second grade viscoelastic fluid caused by a constant surface stress at the surface has been developed by an entire-domain parabolic profile with an unspecified exponent. The closed form solution explicitly defines two dimensionless similarity variables ξ = y ν t and 2 D0 p t= χ = ν β , responsible for the viscous and the elastic responses of the fluid to the step jump at the boundary. Numerical simulations demonstrating the effect of the various operating parameter and fluid properties on the developed flow filed, as well comparison with the existing …

Public Perception Of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, Alice Tam

Aviation Technology Graduate Student Publications

This study explored public risk perception of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) for civilian commercial operations, including cargo and passenger transportation. Civilian operators are considering the use of UAVs to increase safety while reducing labor costs, but negative perceptions may delay the advancement of these aircraft. To document perception of UAV or UAS aircraft for commercial operations, a questionnaire was distributed to adults (ages 18+) who use commercial air travel. The survey classified age group, gender, and UAV familiarity as demographic variables. This study assessed risk perception of UAVs and its correlation to the variables through statistical analysis to identify whether …

Anthrax Cleanup Decisions: Statistical Confidence Or Confident Response, Igor Linkov, John Coles, Paul D. Welle, Matthew Bates, Jeffrey Keisler

Jeffrey Keisler

No abstract provided.

Waldo In The Light Of Austerity And Federal Debt Crisis, Part 2, Jan Kallberg

Jan Kallberg

Waldo’s predictions about the future for public administration describe five areas that would be problematic in the future: legitimacy, authority, knowledge, control, and confidence. Legitimacy includes not only that the government is legally legitimized but capable and focused on an intention to deliver the “good society.” Authority, according to Waldo, is the ability to implement policy with the acceptance of the people based on rationalism, expectations of public good, ethics, superior knowledge, and institutional contexts. Knowledge is institutional knowledge, the ability to arrange and utilize knowledge within the bureaucracy since coordination is the major challenge in knowledge management. Government has …

Waldo In The Light Of Austerity And Federal Debt Crisis, Part 1, Jan Kallberg

Jan Kallberg

Dwight Waldo wrote The Enterprise of Public Administration in 1979 looking back on a long and fruitful academic career, but also as a reflection about the future for public administration. Can a 30 year old book still be relevant? You bet. Today, the public sector is increasingly facing fiscal challenges. Federal, state, and local governments throughout the country have major budget deficits followed by austerity measures that undermine the ability to deliver the good life of the future. In this day and age rereading Dwight Waldo’s The Enterprise of Public Administration is an intellectual exercise worth pursuing. Several of Dwight …

Assessment Of Organic And Inorganic Phosphorus In Soils Derived From Cretaceous Sediments And Basement Complex Soils Of Guinea Savannah Of Kogi State, North Central Nigeria, Sunday I. Amhakhian, H H. Isitekhale, Charles I. Oyewole

Confluence Journal Environmental Studies (CJES), Kogi State University, Nigeria

A pot experiment was carried out using 20 surface soils (0-15cm depth) in 2008 to assess soil organic phosphorus and some fraction of inorganic phosphorus in other to know their availability in the soils of the studied area and also work have not been done in this areas in respect to organic and in-organic phosphorus. The experiment was conducted using 20 soils 10 from each geological formation (Cretaceous sediments and Basement complex soils), respectively. The mean organic phosphorus of 63.51 mgkg 1 soil was obtained for Cretaceous sediment soils and 158.54 mgkg 1 soil for the basement complex soils respectively. …

Development Of Functional Indices Of Facility Occurrence Towards The Distribution Of Social Services In Lagos Island Nigeria., Augustus O. Atubi

Confluence Journal Environmental Studies (CJES), Kogi State University, Nigeria

Proper coordination of transport and public facilities provision is vital to any balanced regional development strategy. The central aim of this study, therefore, is to find out what the relationship is between access to the transport network and the provision of functional indices of facility occurrence towards the distribution of social services in Lagos Island, Nigeria. In particular it seeks to find out areas that have below or above average level of facility occurrences relative to the level of accessibility. However, a pair wise correlation matrix of the eleven (11) variables employed in the index construction was carried out. The …

Optimal Investment Under Operational Flexibility, Risk Aversion, And Uncertainty, Michail Chronopoulos, Bert De Reyck, Afzal Siddiqui

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Traditional real options analysis addresses the problem of investment under uncertainty assuming a risk-neutral decision maker and complete markets. In reality, however, decision makers are often risk averse and markets are incomplete. We confirm that risk aversion lowers the probability of investment and demonstrate how this effect can be mitigated by incorporating operational flexibility in the form of embedded suspension and resumption options. Although such options facilitate investment, we find that the likelihood of investing is still lower compared to the risk-neutral case. Risk aversion also increases the likelihood that the project will be abandoned, although this effect is less …

Urban Climate And Challenges Of Tropical Cities, B E. Omogbai

Confluence Journal Environmental Studies (CJES), Kogi State University, Nigeria

This study examines the nature of urban climate, features and the challenges on the developing tropical cities in the 21st century. It argues that the use of principles of urban climate would help in providing comfortable living conditions and problem immune working environments for the inhabitants of tropical cities. The findings reveal that owing to poor environmental planning, inadequate geotechnical landscape surveys prior to the development of urban infrastructures, and non-adherence to the principles of urban climate, challenges of landscape degradation, excessive flooding of the built infrastructures, heat-island effects, and collapse of buildings have emerged. Suggested measures to avert these …

Detecting Changes In Landuse/Cover Of Umuahia, South-Eastern Nigeria Using Remote Sensing And Gis Techniques, Fanan Ujoh, Olarewaju Oluseyi Ifatimehin, Adams Ndalai Baba

Confluence Journal Environmental Studies (CJES), Kogi State University, Nigeria

Since 1991 when it became the capital city of Abia State, Umuahia has undergone tremendous transformation in its land use and land cover due to rapid urbanization. The main materials employed for this study are a land use map (1991) and Landsat ETM+satellite image (2007) of the study area. These, combined with field survey/checks, were brought into a GIS environment using ILWIS 3.2 Academic image classification software to map the land use/land cover and to estimate the rate of urban expansion and loss of rural land at the peri-urban fringes of Umuahia between 1991 and 2007. The study revealed significant …

Using A Systemic Model Of Accident For Improving Innovative Technologies: Application And Limitations Of The Stamp Model To A Process For Treatment Of Contaminated Substances, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

This paper presents the STAMP accident model, based on systems theory, and describes its application in the context of risk prevention related to the remediation of contaminated materials. The implementation of the model is described, and results are presented both in methodological and technical terms.

Risks Associated With Federal Construction Projects, Krishna R. Surajbally

Theses and Dissertations

The rise in terrorism, corporate espionage, cyber attacks, and federal fiscal constraints play an important role in the federal construction process. The risks associated with these occurrences are studied to aid in the risk management of the military construction process. This paper presents the status of research into these areas to identify how methods, policies, applications, and information obtained from case studies can be used by stakeholders to manage risk in the United States Air Force construction process. The author reviewed research on risk associated with four essential components of the military construction process – Critical Infrastructure, Information Technology, Contracts, …

Slides: Who Should Be At The Table, And What Should They Be Talking About?, Robert W. Adler

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Robert W. Adler, James I. Farr Chair in Law, University of Utah, S.J. Quinney College of Law

9 slides

Slides: Risk Management Strategies Of The Upper Basin: Addressing Potential Shortages, Eric Kuhn

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Eric Kuhn, Colorado River Water Conservation District

15 slides

Slides: Smart Fallowing: New Strategies In Ag Forbearance, Bonnie Colby

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Dr. Bonnie Colby, Department of Agriculture & Resource Economics, University of Arizona

34 slides

Slides: Thinking The Unthinkable, Lawrence J. Macdonnell

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Lawrence J. MacDonnell, University of Wyoming College of Law

7 slides

Slides: Long-Term Augmentation Of The Water Supply Of The Colorado River System, Les Lampe

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Les Lampe, Colorado River Water Consultants, Las Vegas, Nevada

29 slides

Filling The Gap: Commonsense Solutions For Meeting Front Range Water Needs: Executive Summary, Western Resource Advocates, Trout Unlimited, Colorado Environmental Coalition (U.S.)

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

8 pages.

"February 2011"

Presented by Drew Beckwith, Water Policy Manager, Western Resource Advocates, on June 10th at Clyde O. Martz Summer Conference 2011, Navigating the Future of the Colorado River Basin

Full report available at: http://www.westernresourceadvocates.org/gap

Slides: Water Banks: Voluntary And Flexible Water Supplies For The Colorado River's Uncertain Future, Robert Wigington

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Robert Wigington, The Nature Conservancy

7 slides

Materials For Presentation: Water Banks: Voluntary And Flexible Water Supplies For The Colorado River's Uncertain Future [Outline], Robert Wigington

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

4 pages.

"Robert Wigington, The Nature Conservancy"

Materials For Presentation: The Disappearing Colorado River, Lawrence J. Macdonnell

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

7 pages.

"Western Economics Forum, Fall 2010"

Fact Sheet: Study Of Long-Term Augmentation Options For The Water Supply Of The Colorado System, Black & Veatch, Ch2m Hill

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

1 page.

"March 2008"

Material submitted by Les Lampe, Colorado River Water Consultants, for "Augmentation Options" program, Session 3: Mapping a New Course, Panel F: Some Policy Options and Solutions.

Colorado River Water Consultants is a project-specific partnership of engineering firms Black & Veatch and CH2MHill.

Gender Participation In The Management Of Tricycle Transport For Youth Empowerment And Sustainable Development In Kano State, Nigeria, Nuratu Muhammed

Confluence Journal Environmental Studies (CJES), Kogi State University, Nigeria

The research examined gender participation in the management of tricycle for youth empowerment and sustainable development in Kano state, Nigeria. Stratified random sampling technique was used to select samples of drivers(150), passengers (150) and owners/managers the female tricycle owners fell under this category and they numbered(65).All together a total of 365 samples were selected for the study. Data obtained from the primary data was analyzed using simple statistical techniques and chi square test to ascertain whether there was any significant differences in some of the variables tested. The results of the analysis revealed that the main difference was found in …

Slides: Law Of Colorado River: Where We Are, Where We Are Going, Steven M. Fitten

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Steven M. Fitten, Chief Counsel, International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC)

14 slides

Agenda: Navigating The Future Of The Colorado River, University Of Colorado Boulder. Natural Resources Law Center, Western Water Policy Program

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Competition for scarce Colorado River water resources is nothing new, but the conflicts that prompted the seven basin states to negotiate the 1922 Colorado River Compact have grown considerably fiercer and more complex in recent decades. In 2007, responding to the challenges of increasing demand and sustained drought, the seven basin states and a number of other affected interests agreed to a set of interim guidelines for allocating Colorado River water in the event of shortages. This agreement represents an important evolution in the governance of the Colorado River, suggesting that the many interests in the basin can work together …

Report Surveys Colorado River Basin Leaders: Collaborative Approaches To Dwindling Supplies Are Highlighted, Sarah Bates, University Of Montana Missoula. Center For Natural Resources And Environmental Policy

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

4 pages.

Press release "April 14, 2011"

"Executive Summary April 2011" of report, Thinking Like a River Basin: Leaders' Perspectives on Options and Opportunities in Colorado River Management

Full report available at:

http://www.carpediemwest.org/wp-content/uploads/Thinking_Like_A_River_Basin_8-20-13.pdf

Modelling And Hazard Analysis For Contaminated Sediments Using Stamp Model, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

Processes for remediation (removal of pollution or contaminants) of contaminated sediments have been very efficient. These technologies, which are particularly complex, call for a comprehensive approach to risk analysis which characterises all threats (to humans, equipment, local residents, the environment, etc.) . The STAMP accident model (Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes) is an example of such a comprehensive approach, and it has been chosen to characterise the risks associated with Novosol (registered trademark), an innovative remediation process.

Managing Risk In A Failing It Project: A Social Constructionist View, Wee Kiat Lim, Siew Kien Sia, Adrian Yeow

CMP Research

Why do IT projects continue to stumble, despite the proliferation of risk management methodologies and a growing body of knowledge on project risk assessment and mitigation? In this paper, we propose an alternative theoretical perspective that views project risk as a social construction process shaped by the risk accounts of social groups and actors within an implementation context. Risk management is embedded in the social processes where risks are negotiated and contested, with some risk accounts amplified and some attenuated. Through the analysis of a large IT implementation in an Asian logistics firm and its trajectory of successive crises, we …