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Jeffrey Keisler

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Full-Text Articles in Risk Analysis

Balancing Research And Funding Using Value Of Information And Portfolio Tools For Nanomaterial Risk Classification Jan 2016

Balancing Research And Funding Using Value Of Information And Portfolio Tools For Nanomaterial Risk Classification

Jeffrey Keisler

Risk research for nanomaterials is currently prioritized by means of expert workshops and other deliberative processes. However, analytical techniques that quantify and compare alternative research investments are increasingly recommended. Here, we apply value of information and portfolio decision analysis—methods commonly applied in financial and operations management—to prioritize risk research for multiwalled carbon nanotubes and nanoparticulate silver and titanium dioxide. We modify the widely accepted CB Nanotool hazard evaluation framework, which combines nano- and bulk-material properties into a hazard score, to operate probabilistically with uncertain inputs. Literature is reviewed to develop uncertain estimates for each input parameter, and a Monte Carlo …

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Operational Resilience: Concepts, Design And Analysis, Alexander A. Ganin, Emanuelle Massaro, Alexander Gutfraind, Nicholas Steen, Jeffrey Keisler, Alexander Kott, Rami Mangoubi, Igor Linkov Jan 2016

Operational Resilience: Concepts, Design And Analysis, Alexander A. Ganin, Emanuelle Massaro, Alexander Gutfraind, Nicholas Steen, Jeffrey Keisler, Alexander Kott, Rami Mangoubi, Igor Linkov

Jeffrey Keisler

Building resilience into today’s complex infrastructures is critical to the daily functioning of society and
its ability to withstand and recover from natural disasters, epidemics, and cyber-threats. This study
proposes quantitative measures that capture and implement the definition of engineering resilience
advanced by the National Academy of Sciences. The approach is applicable across physical, information,
and social domains. It evaluates the critical functionality, defined as a performance function of time set
by the stakeholders. Critical functionality is a source of valuable information, such as the integrated
system resilience over a time interval, and its robustness. The paper demonstrates the formulation …

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Risky Removal: Developing A Holistic Understanding Of The Risks Of Redeveloping Sites Contaminated With Unexploded Ordnance, Matthew Bates, Elizabeth Jones, Jeffrey Keisler, Igor Linkov Mar 2013

Risky Removal: Developing A Holistic Understanding Of The Risks Of Redeveloping Sites Contaminated With Unexploded Ordnance, Matthew Bates, Elizabeth Jones, Jeffrey Keisler, Igor Linkov

Jeffrey Keisler

No abstract provided.

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Scenario Analysis: A Review Of Methods And Applications For Engineering And Environmental Systems, Yousra Tourki, Jeffrey Keisler, Igor Linkov Feb 2013

Scenario Analysis: A Review Of Methods And Applications For Engineering And Environmental Systems, Yousra Tourki, Jeffrey Keisler, Igor Linkov

Jeffrey Keisler

Changing environment, uncertain economic conditions, and socio-political unrest have renewed interest in scenario analysis, both from theoretical and applied points of view. Nevertheless, neither the processes for scenario analysis (SA) nor evaluation criteria and metrics have been regularized. In this paper, SA-reported applications and implementation methodology are discussed in the context of an extensive literature review covering papers published between 2000 and 2010. Over 340 papers were identified through a series of queries in the web of science database. The papers were classified based on the North American Industrial Classification System and SA application goals (environmental, business, and social). SA …

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Anthrax Cleanup Decisions: Statistical Confidence Or Confident Response, Igor Linkov, John Coles, Paul D. Welle, Matthew Bates, Jeffrey Keisler Oct 2011

Anthrax Cleanup Decisions: Statistical Confidence Or Confident Response, Igor Linkov, John Coles, Paul D. Welle, Matthew Bates, Jeffrey Keisler

Jeffrey Keisler

No abstract provided.

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