Risk Analysis Commons^™

Going Airborne: Kent State's Pioneering Leap Into Integrated Advanced Air Mobility, Jason T. Lorenzon

National Training Aircraft Symposium (NTAS)

This proposal centers on the development of a Concept of Operations in Advanced Air Mobility (AAM). Kent State University's College of Aeronautics and Engineering is poised to pioneer the integration of drones and electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) systems, bridging the gap between its campus and airport by transporting students and faculty the 3NM distance from campus to the airport and back by a UAV. Beyond a standard research initiative, this proposal signifies a groundbreaking effort to reshape the landscape of educational aeronautics and Advanced Air Mobility and Urban Air Mobility. Our overarching goal is to transcend conventional boundaries …

Assessing Past Airworthiness Directives And How Safety Management Systems May Benefit Aviation Product Design And Manufacturing, Damon Lercel Ph.D., Manoj Patankar Ph.D., Richard Steckel Ph.D.

Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education & Research

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) continues to promulgate Safety Management Systems (SMS) across aviation organizations when it recently issued SMS requirements for EASA certificated Part 145 maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) organizations and Part 21 Design & Manufacturing (D&M) organizations. Currently, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has no such rule in place for these U.S.-based organizations, which may challenge those doing business in countries where EASA policies apply. Given that a majority of the United States’ D&M and MRO population is made up of smaller organizations, it is likely a U.S. SMS regulation will require justification of the …

Airspace Saturation And Midair Collision Risk: A Case Study At A Class D Airport, Luigi Raphael I. Dy, John H. Mott

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Near midair collisions are precursor events to actual collisions and may be an indicator of risk. While previous studies have used reports of near midair collisions to relate factors such as airspace saturation to near midair collisions, the reports relied upon were generally subjective in nature. With the adoption of automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B), the approximate position of every equipped aircraft can be recorded. A six-month case study was performed at the Purdue University airport to relate the number of 1000-foot proximity events to airspace saturation, and whether the Class D airspace affected this relationship. Through a logistic regression analysis, …

Ground Risk Model For Uavs, Andrew V. Shelley

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This paper develops an alternative to the ground risk model provided by JARUS SORA. Key inconsistencies in the SORA ground risk model are identified, specifically ground risk continuing to increase when there is no further increase in fatality probability.

Population density is a critical component of UAS ground risk. Definitions of population density adopted by various regulatory jurisdictions are reviewed. A categorisation of population density is developed based on official statistics categories for New Zealand. This categorisation is more granular than that provided by SORA, enabling a more nuanced assessment of risk.

A ground risk model is then developed using …

Mybody Safety System, Diego Draguicevich, Nicholas Rodriguez

Discovery Day - Prescott

To any university, the safety of students, faculty, and staff when on campus is paramount. To enhance safety, many campuses have “safety stations” of some sort scattered throughout. However, campuses such as Embry-Riddle Prescott also have hiking trails nearby. Safety pillars on hiking trails would be prohibitively expensive to build and maintain, and would also be less useful due to a longer response time for security officers. The MyBody System seeks to resolve these issues by introducing a system which is affordable, self-enclosed, solar powered and easy to maintain. The system would achieve this via custom wireless speakers disguised as …

Quantum Safety Metrics Framework For Commercial Unmanned Aircraft Operators, Tracy L. Lamb, Nathan A. Phillips, Trong Van Nguyen

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Commercial unmanned aircraft systems continue to increase in applications and diversity; however, mishaps and accidents erode safety, investment return, and efficiency. Most unmanned aircraft accidents are preceded by leading indicators; the ability to forecast and quantify these may provide increased safety and profitability. This mixed-method research study used a non-experimental parallel convergence approach with multiple instruments, multiple-case study n = 22, and one exemplar case design to develop a quantum safety metric program. This study used a combination of previously validated methods as development instruments, including; the HFACS, STAMP, 'Sierra Scale,' and Accident Prevention Effort equations. The study extended the …

Uas Detection And Negation, Houbing Song, Yongxin Liu, Jian Wang

Publications

Unauthorized operation of a UAV may present privacy or security risks. A software-defined radio (SDR) or other receiver can be used to monitor a specified range of frequencies to provide detection of wireless communication signals suspected of relating to UAV operation. A protocol detector corresponding to a trained classifier can be applied to data packets demodulated by the SDR. A transmitter can then be triggered to provide warnings by injecting warning data into a video channel in response to the detected protocol. Control of the UAV can be established by transmitting simulated control commands that overwhelm the signals received from …

Predicting Pilot Misperception Of Runway Excursion Risk Through Machine Learning Algorithms Of Recorded Flight Data, Edwin Vincent Odisho Ii

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

The research used predictive models to determine pilot misperception of runway excursion risk associated with unstable approaches. The Federal Aviation Administration defined runway excursion as a veer-off or overrun of the runway surface. The Federal Aviation Administration also defined a stable approach as an aircraft meeting the following criteria: (a) on target approach airspeed, (b) correct attitude, (c) landing configuration, (d) nominal descent angle/rate, and (e) on a straight flight path to the runway touchdown zone. Continuing an unstable approach to landing was defined as Unstable Approach Risk Misperception in this research. A review of the literature revealed that an …

Developing A Taxonomy For Success In Commercial Pilot Behaviors, Kristine Kiernan, David S. Cross, Mark Scharf Ph.D.

Publications

Human error has been well studied in aviation. However, less is known about the ways in which human performance maintains and contributes to aviation safety. The lack of data on positive human performance prevents consideration of the full range of human behaviors when making safety and risk management decisions. The concept of resilient performance provides a framework to understand and classify positive human behaviors. Through interviews with commercial airline pilots, this study examined routine airline operations to evaluate the concept of resilient performance and to develop a taxonomy for success. The four enablers of resilient performance, anticipation, learning, responding, and …

Analysis Of Runway Incursion Trends: Implications For Cost-Benefit Analysis Of Mitigation Investments, David C. Ison

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This causal-comparative and correlation study investigated the costs of runway incursion safety improvements in relation to their effectiveness to assess potential aviation system benefits.Two airports (Los Angeles International and Dallas-Ft. Worth International), which were early adopters of Runway Status Lights (RWSL), a runway incursion technology, were targeted in this analysis. Findings indicated that there were no significant differences in counts or rates of Category A, B, and D incursions at LAX and DFW when comparing the time periods before versus after RWSL installation. Category C counts and rates were found to have increased significantly after RWSL installation. The findings of …

Dynamic Delegated Corridors And 4d Required Navigation Performance For Urban Air Mobility (Uam) Airspace Integration, Trong Van Nguyen

Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education & Research

Increased traffic congestion on urban road networks has impacted the travel time for commuters in highly populated urban centers. Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is recognized as a system that transports the passenger and air cargo from any location to any destination within a metropolitan area. UAM may offer a solution to the problematic issue of automobile urban surface transportation congestion. However, the predicted significant growth in the demand for integration of UAM operations into the existing airspace system in the next 20 years and beyond may exceed the capacity of current air traffic control (ATC) system resources, particularly the ATC …

Characteristics Of Helicopter Accidents Involving Male And Female Pilots, Scott S. Burgess, Robert O. Walton, P. Michael Politano

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Studies examining aviation accidents have not found differences in accident rates by gender, though there may be gender differences in the types of accident. Baker, Lamb, Grabowski, and Rebok (2001) examined fixed-wing aviation accident rates of male and female private pilots and found that males were more likely to have accidents related to inattention or poor planning while female pilots were more likely to have accidents due to mishandling the aircraft. This research analyzed the National Transportation Safety Board’s aviation accident database system to examine the severity of injury and aircraft damage in rotary-wing (helicopter) accidents by gender. The data …

Subjectivity In Failure Mode Effects Analysis (Fmea) Severity Classification Within A Reliability Centered Maintenance (Rcm) Context, Marc Banghart, Kari Babski-Reeves, Linkan Bian, Lesley Strawderman

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This research paper investigated subjectivity in the severity rating of failure modes within a risk analysis process. Although several risk analysis processes can be utilized, the study considered the application of Failure Modes Effects Analysis (FMEA) or Failure Modes Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) due to its common use within the Aerospace Industry. The study investigated both differences in severity selection given varying amounts of experience as well as any association between severity selection and the provided input information. The main goal of the research was to investigate the impact of data quality on severity selection and to identify factors …

Identification Of Reverse Engineering Candidates Utilizing Machine Learning And Aircraft Cannibalization Data, Marc Banghart

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

As military aircraft continue to remain in service and age, cannibalization of parts is increasing. Proactive identification of parts that are at high risk for cannibalization will inform engineering processes such as reverse engineering, thus allowing potentially reducing lead time to develop new parts. The research objective was to develop a causal structure that can be used for prediction of when cannibalization actions may occur. Bayesian networks allow encoding of causality between various descriptive features given a data set. The method utilized a tabu search algorithm, identified the underlying causal structure and the associated node probabilities. The method is then …

The Mars Desert Research Station - Erau Crew 160 Expedition, Lycourgos Manolopoulos, Ashley Hollis-Bussey, Hiroki Sugimoto, Cassandra Vella, John Herman, Marc Carofano

Student Works

The Mars Desert Research Station (MDRS) is a research program which is owned and operated by the Mars Society. The MDRS is located in Hanksville, Utah which hosts simulations that are typically two weeks long for professional scientists and engineers as well as college students of all levels, in training for human operations specifically on Mars. This space analog facility is in isolation, allowing for rigorous field studies regarding research that represents a true mission as if the crew members are conducting a real expedition on Mars. Participants are assigned specific roles and tasks that are typically aligned with their …

A Model Of Human Harm From A Falling Unmanned Aircraft: Implications For Uas Regulation, Andrew V. Shelley

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This paper quantifies the human harm, in the form of fatalities and skull fractures, which could occur as a result of an unmanned aircraft falling from a height. The analysis is used to establish the maximum height at which an unmanned aircraft can be flown over people to achieve a level of safety consistent with the rate of ground fatalities from General Aviation. The maximum height is dependent on the aircraft mass and the population density of people on the ground below.

The results are used to inform a critical evaluation of recent recommendations from the FAA-chartered “Unmanned Aircraft Systems …

System Safety Modeling Of Alternative Geofencing Configurations For Small Uas, James T. Luxhoj

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

As is well known, the integration of small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS) or “drones” into the National Airspace System (NAS) has captured significant industry, academic, regulatory and media attention. For sUAS that typically fly low and slow, the possibility of a mid-air collision with a nearby general aviation aircraft needs to be studied from a system safety perspective to identify possible hazards and to assess mitigations. The Aviation System Risk Model (ASRM) is a first-generation socio-technical model that uses a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) methodology to integrate possible hazards to assess a non-linear safety risk metric. Using inductive logic, the …

Not-So-Risky Business? Assessing The Risk Of Integrating Large Rpvs Into The Current Air Traffic System, Hans-Joachim K. Ruff-Stahl, Steven Esser, Dirk Farsch, Thomas Graner, Robert Klein, Christian Schneidt, Stefan Schoenborn

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

In spite of considerable efforts to commercialize large remotely piloted vehicles (RPV), an integration of these RPVs into the existing Air Transportation System (ATS) and Airspace Structure is pending. The purpose of this paper was to assess the risks of an exemplary integration of a Heron 1 type RPV into the existing European air space structure within the current regulatory framework and without the availability of sense and avoid technology. Six incident occurrence scenarios were investigated, based on a modified Fault Tree Analysis and Eurocontrol’s risk matrix. It was found that without the implementation of technological or procedural changes, an …

Late Morning Concurrent Sessions: Innovations In Aviation Technologies: Presentation: Relative Material Loss: A Methodology For Assessing Island Airport Steel Marine Bulkheads, Robert Ernsting, Constantine M. Koursaris

Aviation / Aeronautics / Aerospace International Research Conference

A July 2015 report from the Airports Council International – North America (ACI-NA) states “U.S. airports are long overdue for [a] major structural improvement projects. Most U.S. airports are aging, … and because of budgetary restrictions, they’re not aging well.”(Garcia and Clampet, 2015). The average US age is 40 years old with the youngest (Denver International) recently turning 20 years old. As airports continue to age, airport commissioners will struggle to find creative ways to either fund airport replacements or extend the service life of existing airport facilities (commonly referred to as service life extension projects or SLEP). Due to …

Decisions Management During Wildland Fires: Accidents Viewed As A Spatiotemporal Inadequacy, Karim Hardy

Publications

Extreme situations as wildland fires are a source of stress and pressure. In such events, decision-makers and incident commanders need to address a specific problem: how to manage time and resources to make meaningful decisions? Current models of accidents that exist to explain and manage catastrophes and disasters are inadequate and insufficient to deal with resources and time pressure due to uncertainty within a complex organization. Current incident response structures are incompetent and impotent to handle effectively a dynamic evolution of space and time in order to bring a situation back to stability adequately.

Evaluating Launch Vehicle / Reentry Vehicle (Lv/Rv) Separation Concepts, Zheng Tao, Ganghuai Wang, Tudor Masek, Thomas J. St. Clair

Space Traffic Management Conference

Launch Vehicle/Reentry Vehicle (LV/RV) operations are expected to increase across the National Airspace System (NAS) as their reliability and availability improve. LV/RV designs and the industry landscape have vastly changed since the 1960’s, and the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) methods for handling these operations need to evolve to support the expected growth. Currently, large amounts of airspace are segregated for every LV/RV operation. This increases costs for NAS users and may limit LV/RV opportunities. The FAA’s NextGen office recently proposed two more efficient separation concepts for LV/RV operations called Space Transition Corridors, and Four-Dimensional Trajectory Deconfliction. Prior safety research for …

Third Party Airport Crash Risk Model For Non-Towered Airports, Christian Salmon

Aviation / Aeronautics / Aerospace International Research Conference

This research leverages the objective accident data record towards an individual and societal 3^rd party “external” airport risk model for aircraft operations that crash while operating at non-towered airports.

Small aircraft, specifically Part 91, operating at non-towered airports have a crash rate estimated at 10-fold that of commercial operations. Given the nature of the typically non-towered airport, situated in close physical proximity with residential structures, this exposes residents to substantive risk of injury and death due to aircraft crashing.

A 3^rd party risk model that maps risk of injury, death and percent structural damage will enable informed decisions …

Processus De Décision Et Complexité: Le Feu De Yarnell Hill Du 30 Juin 2013 [Decision-Making Processes And Complexity: The Yarnell Hill Fire Of June 30th, 2013], Karim Hardy, Louise K. Comfort

Publications

Re-forming the information stream in decision processes after severe accidents allows scientists aRecréer les flux d’information au sein des processus de décision après une catastrophe permet aux chercheurs ainsi qu’aux décideurs d’identifier les points à partir desquels une action défaillante débute ainsi que les écarts dans les processus d’information qui pourraient être corrigés afin de réduire les futurs lors de futurs incidents. Le 30 juin 2013, le feu de Yarnell Hill en Arizona (Etats-Unis) évolue rapidement dans des conditions environnementale et managériale très difficiles menant à l’effondrement de la stratégie de lutte et à la perte de dix-neuf sapeurs-pompiers de …

Hazard Mitigation Through A Systemic Model Of Accident To A Socio-Technical System: A Case Study, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

This paper presents the STAMP (systems-theoretic accident modeling and processes) accident model, based on systems theory, and describes its application in the context of risk prevention related to the remediation of contaminated sediments. The implementation of the model is described, and results are presented both in methodological and technical terms. The goal of this article is to emphasize the need of new approaches to take into account hazards and accidents within socio-technical systems.

Modelling And Hazard Analysis For Contaminated Sediments Using Stamp Model And Stpa Tool, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

The goal of this article is dual: first, introducing a new model of accident named STAMP (systems-theoretic accident modeling and processes); then applying the model to an innovative process for the treatment of contaminated substances and the re-use of treated substances. This article is a demonstration for a need of a new tool to take into account hazards and safety within socio-technical systems.

Using A Systemic Model Of Accident For Improving Innovative Technologies: Application And Limitations Of The Stamp Model To A Process For Treatment Of Contaminated Substances, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

This paper presents the STAMP accident model, based on systems theory, and describes its application in the context of risk prevention related to the remediation of contaminated materials. The implementation of the model is described, and results are presented both in methodological and technical terms.

Modelling And Hazard Analysis For Contaminated Sediments Using Stamp Model, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

Processes for remediation (removal of pollution or contaminants) of contaminated sediments have been very efficient. These technologies, which are particularly complex, call for a comprehensive approach to risk analysis which characterises all threats (to humans, equipment, local residents, the environment, etc.) . The STAMP accident model (Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes) is an example of such a comprehensive approach, and it has been chosen to characterise the risks associated with Novosol (registered trademark), an innovative remediation process.

Modelling And Hazard Analysis For Contaminated Sediments Using Stamp Model, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Publications

Processes for remediation (removal of pollution or contaminants) of contaminated sediments have become very efficient. These technologies, which are particularly complex, call for a comprehensive approach to risk analysis which characterises all threats (to humans, equipment, local residents, the environment etc.). The STAMP accident model (Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes) is an example of such a comprehensive approach, and it has been chosen to characterise the risks associated with Novosol®, an innovative remediation process. Risk analysis is carried out through the application of STPA (STamP-based Analysis). This article is organised into three sections. The first describes the Novosol® process for …