Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons

Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Uncertainty

Discipline
Institution
Publication Year
Publication
Publication Type

Articles 1 - 30 of 33

Full-Text Articles in Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering

Dual-Channel Warehouse And Inventory Management With Stochastic Demand, Fawzat Alawneh, Guoqing Zhang Feb 2018

Dual-Channel Warehouse And Inventory Management With Stochastic Demand, Fawzat Alawneh, Guoqing Zhang

Mechanical, Automotive & Materials Engineering Publications

This study examines the inventory policy for the emerging dual-channel warehouse, which has a unique structure where the warehouse is divided into two areas: one for fulfilling online orders and the other for storing products and fulfilling offline orders. A multi-item inventory model was developed considering the warehouse capacity constraint, demand, and lead time uncertainty. Solution methods are provided for both uniform and normal distributions. Adopting the proposed inventory policy for a dual warehouse is cost effective and adds flexibility to the warehouse and supply chain. The study also offers managerial insights on some critical issues faced by companies operating ...


A Comprehensive End-Of-Life Strategy Decision Making Approach To Handle Uncertainty In The Product Design Stage, Junfeng Ma, Gul E. Okudan-Kremer, Charles David Ray Nov 2017

A Comprehensive End-Of-Life Strategy Decision Making Approach To Handle Uncertainty In The Product Design Stage, Junfeng Ma, Gul E. Okudan-Kremer, Charles David Ray

Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering Publications

This study employs fuzzy logic to evaluate uncertain component end-of-life (EOL) options in the design stage. Determining EOL strategies during the product design stage can be complex. For example, EOL strategies for retired bicycle components are various and may change with geographic location. Thus, adopting fixed EOL strategies in the product design stage may not always be appropriate; the element of uncertainty should be considered. Limited research has examined uncertainty of EOL strategies during the design stage. Moreover, the evaluation of EOL strategies in a comprehensive manner has not been shown in a realistic case study. These facts motivate this ...


Demand Forecasting And Decision Making Under Uncertainty For Long-Term Production Planning In Aviation Industry, Minxiang Zhang Jan 2017

Demand Forecasting And Decision Making Under Uncertainty For Long-Term Production Planning In Aviation Industry, Minxiang Zhang

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The aviation industry represents a complex system with low-volume high-value manufacturing, long lead times, large capital investments, and highly variable demand. Making important decisions with intensive capital investments requires accurate forecasting of future demand. However, this can be challenging because of significant variability in future scenarios. The purpose of this research is to develop an approach on making long-term production planning decision with appropriate demand forecasting model and decision-making theory.

The first study is focused on demand forecasting. Probabilistic models are evaluated based on the model assumptions and statistics test with historical data. Two forecasting models based on stochastic processes ...


Methods For Incorporating Ecological Impacts With Climate Uncertainty To Support Robust Flood Management Decision-Making, Caitlin M. Spence Jan 2017

Methods For Incorporating Ecological Impacts With Climate Uncertainty To Support Robust Flood Management Decision-Making, Caitlin M. Spence

Doctoral Dissertations

Modern and historic flood risk management involves accommodating multiple sources of sources of uncertainty and potential impacts across a broad range of interrelated sectors. Sources of uncertainty that affect planning include internal climate variability, anthropogenic changes such as land use and system performance expectations, and more recently changes in climatology that affect the resources supporting the system. Flood management systems potentially impact human settlements within and beyond the systems’ scope of planning, local weather patterns, and associated ecological systems. Federal guidelines across nations have called for greater consideration of uncertainty and impacts of water resources planning projects, but methods for ...


Technology Decisions In New Product Development, Amir Sanayei Jan 2016

Technology Decisions In New Product Development, Amir Sanayei

Wayne State University Dissertations

Selecting the right technology is one of the most important and challenging decisions in new product development (NPD) process that can greatly affect all downstream design activities which have a great impact on product success in the market place. Although new technologies may bring more competitive advantage by offering higher performance to price, they also make the NPD process more risky and challenging. We model the technology selection problem of a firm that is defining its new product in the presence of the technology uncertainty. At each review stage, firm has the options: select and commit to any technology alternatives ...


Robust Distributed Scheduling Via Time Period Aggregation, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau Dec 2015

Robust Distributed Scheduling Via Time Period Aggregation, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau

Shih-Fen Cheng

In this paper, we evaluate whether the robustness of a market mechanism that allocates complementary resources could be improved through the aggregation of time periods in which resources are consumed. In particular, we study a multi-round combinatorial auction that is built on a general equilibrium framework. We adopt the general equilibrium framework and the particular combinatorial auction design from the literature, and we investigate the benefits and the limitation of time-period aggregation when demand-side uncertainties are introduced. By using simulation experiments on a real-life resource allocation problem from a container port, we show that, under stochastic conditions, the performance variation ...


Robust Distributed Scheduling Via Time Period Aggregation, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau Dec 2015

Robust Distributed Scheduling Via Time Period Aggregation, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau

Shih-Fen Cheng

In this paper, we evaluate whether the robustness of a market mechanism that allocates complementary resources could be improved through the aggregation of time periods in which resources are consumed. In particular, we study a multi-round combinatorial auction that is built on a general equilibrium framework. We adopt the general equilibrium framework and the particular combinatorial auction design from the literature, and we investigate the benefits and the limitation of time-period aggregation when demand-side uncertainties are introduced. By using simulation experiments on a real-life resource allocation problem from a container port, we show that, under stochastic conditions, the performance variation ...


Robust Distributed Scheduling Via Time Period Aggregation, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau Dec 2015

Robust Distributed Scheduling Via Time Period Aggregation, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau

Shih-Fen CHENG

In this paper, we evaluate whether the robustness of a market mechanism that allocates complementary resources could be improved through the aggregation of time periods in which resources are consumed. In particular, we study a multi-round combinatorial auction that is built on a general equilibrium framework. We adopt the general equilibrium framework and the particular combinatorial auction design from the literature, and we investigate the benefits and the limitation of time-period aggregation when demand-side uncertainties are introduced. By using simulation experiments on a real-life resource allocation problem from a container port, we show that, under stochastic conditions, the performance variation ...


Inventory Management And Control "For A Cause", John Michael Miller May 2015

Inventory Management And Control "For A Cause", John Michael Miller

Theses and Dissertations

Companies today are changing the culture of business and beginning to involve more than just labor and money in overall decisions. Just as sustainability issues and humanitarian logistics are gaining popularity, so is the idea of using business to make a difference on society in addition to making a profit. As companies position themselves across the globe to make an impact, they employ people in third-world environments that create uncertainties on both the supply and demand sides. Also, the idea of strategically planning work with the goal of minimizing costs has been replaced by companies wanting to give more work ...


Model-Iq: Uncertainty Propagation From Sensing To Modeling And Control In Buildings., Madhur Behl, Truong Nghiem, Rahul Mangharam Apr 2014

Model-Iq: Uncertainty Propagation From Sensing To Modeling And Control In Buildings., Madhur Behl, Truong Nghiem, Rahul Mangharam

Real-Time and Embedded Systems Lab (mLAB)

A fundamental problem in the design of closed-loop Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) is in accurately capturing the dynamics of the underlying physical system. To provide optimal control for such closed-loop systems, model-based controls require accurate physical plant models. It is hard to analytically establish (a) how data quality from sensors affects model accuracy, and consequently, (b) the effect of model accuracy on the operational cost of model-based controllers. We present the Model-IQ toolbox which, given a plant model and real input data, automatically evaluates the effect of this uncertainty propagation from sensor data to model accuracy to controller performance. We apply ...


Interaction Model Of Functions In The National Airspace System, Nathan F. Koerschner, Steven J. Landry Oct 2013

Interaction Model Of Functions In The National Airspace System, Nathan F. Koerschner, Steven J. Landry

The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium

The National Airspace System (NAS) is comprehensively described by five functions derived from big-picture goals: (1) conflict detection and resolution, (2) controlling aircraft states, (3) traffic flow management, (4) controlling passenger states, and (5) controlling company resources. It can be reasonably assumed that these functions interact in some way; this interaction is currently unknown. A model of the entire NAS would be helpful in discovering these interactions, yet no such comprehensive model exists. To address this problem an agent-based state-based model was created in MATLAB. To date, only functions (1) and (2) were implemented. Running the model shows that there ...


Decentralized Decision Support For An Agent Population In Dynamic And Uncertain Domains, Pradeep Reddy Varakantham, Shih-Fen Cheng, Thi Duong Nguyen May 2013

Decentralized Decision Support For An Agent Population In Dynamic And Uncertain Domains, Pradeep Reddy Varakantham, Shih-Fen Cheng, Thi Duong Nguyen

Shih-Fen CHENG

This research is motivated by problems in urban transportation and labor mobility, where the agent flow is dynamic, non-deterministic and on a large scale. In such domains, even though the individual agents do not have an identity of their own and do not explicitly impact other agents, they have implicit interactions with other agents. While there has been much research in handling such implicit effects, it has primarily assumed controlled movements of agents in static environments. We address the issue of decision support for individual agents having involuntary movements in dynamic environments . For instance, in a taxi fleet serving a ...


Distributing Complementary Resources Across Multiple Periods With Stochastic Demand, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau May 2013

Distributing Complementary Resources Across Multiple Periods With Stochastic Demand, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau

Shih-Fen CHENG

In this paper, we evaluate whether the robustness of a market mechanism that allocates complementary resources could be improved through the aggregation of time periods in which resources are consumed. In particular, we study a multi-round combinatorial auction that is built on a general equilibrium framework. We adopt the general equilibrium framework and the particular combinatorial auction design from the literature, and we investigate the benefits and the limitation of time-period aggregation when demand-side uncertainties are introduced. By using simulation experiments, we show that under stochastic conditions the performance variation of the process decreases as the time frame length (time ...


A Three-Stage Model For Closed-Loop Supply Chain Configuration Under Uncertainty, Saman Hassanzadeh Amin, Guoqing Zhang Jan 2013

A Three-Stage Model For Closed-Loop Supply Chain Configuration Under Uncertainty, Saman Hassanzadeh Amin, Guoqing Zhang

Mechanical, Automotive & Materials Engineering Publications

In this paper, a general closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) network is configured which consists of multiple customers, parts, products, suppliers, remanufacturing subcontractors, and refurbishing sites. We propose a three-stage model including evaluation, network configuration, and selection and order allocation. In the first stage, suppliers, remanufacturing subcontractors, and refurbishing sites are evaluated based on a new quality function deployment (QFD) model. The proposed QFD model determines the relationship between customer requirements, part requirements, and process requirements. In addition, the fuzzy sets theory is utilised to overcome the uncertainty in the decision-making process. In the second stage, the closed-loop supply chain network ...


A Mechanism Design Approach To Bandwidth Allocation In Tactical Data Networks, Ankur Mour Jan 2013

A Mechanism Design Approach To Bandwidth Allocation In Tactical Data Networks, Ankur Mour

Open Access Theses

The defense sector is undergoing a phase of rapid technological advancement, in the pursuit of its goal of information superiority. This goal depends on a large network of complex interconnected systems - sensors, weapons, soldiers - linked through a maze of heterogeneous networks. The sheer scale and size of these networks prompt behaviors that go beyond conglomerations of systems or `system-of-systems'. The lack of a central locus and disjointed, competing interests among large clusters of systems makes this characteristic of an Ultra Large Scale (ULS) system. These traits of ULS systems challenge and undermine the fundamental assumptions of today's software and ...


Analysis Of Investment Decision Making In Power Systems Under Environmental Regulations And Uncertainties, Yanyi He Jan 2013

Analysis Of Investment Decision Making In Power Systems Under Environmental Regulations And Uncertainties, Yanyi He

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The dissertation focuses on the study of environmental policies and their impacts on the power systems' planning. It consists of three parts, each of which addresses a single problem on environmental policies and generation expansion planning. In the first part of the dissertation, I compared the cap-and-trade policy and various carbon tax policies in a single period under the generation expansion framework. The problem was modeled as a bilevel problem where the lower level competing generation companies maximized their own profits under the regulations of the upper level. The policies were compared via their effectiveness and efficiency. Effectiveness referred to ...


Investigation Of Critical Sustainability Decisions In Product Recycling And Remanufacturing, Wenbo Shi Jan 2013

Investigation Of Critical Sustainability Decisions In Product Recycling And Remanufacturing, Wenbo Shi

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In recent years, there have been substantial interests in sustainable processes for the end-of-life products to conserve natural resource and reduce landfill wastes. Among these processes, recycling and remanufacturing provides opportunities for practitioners from various industries and government regulators to mitigate the environmental impacts while maintaining economic viability. Meanwhile, there are substantial critical decisions for the decision/policy makers to reap to the economic and environmental benefits from the recycling and remanufacturing processes. Therefore, in this study, I investigate the product weight reduction and used-product collection decisions in the context of closed loop supply chains with product recycling. Furthermore, from ...


Prioritized Shaping Of Models For Solving Dec-Pomdps, Pradeep Reddy Varakantham, William Yeoh, Prasanna Velagapudi, Paul Scerri Jun 2012

Prioritized Shaping Of Models For Solving Dec-Pomdps, Pradeep Reddy Varakantham, William Yeoh, Prasanna Velagapudi, Paul Scerri

Research Collection School Of Information Systems

An interesting class of multi-agent POMDP planning problems can be solved by having agents iteratively solve individual POMDPs, find interactions with other individual plans, shape their transition and reward functions to encourage good interactions and discourage bad ones and then recompute a new plan. D-TREMOR showed that this approach can allow distributed planning for hundreds of agents. However, the quality and speed of the planning process depends on the prioritization scheme used. Lower priority agents shape their models with respect to the models of higher priority agents. In this paper, we introduce a new prioritization scheme that is guaranteed to ...


Stochastic Dominance In Stochastic Dcops For Risk-Sensitive Applications, Nguyen Duc Thien, William Yeoh, Hoong Chuin Lau Jun 2012

Stochastic Dominance In Stochastic Dcops For Risk-Sensitive Applications, Nguyen Duc Thien, William Yeoh, Hoong Chuin Lau

Research Collection School Of Information Systems

Distributed constraint optimization problems (DCOPs) are well-suited for modeling multi-agent coordination problems where the primary interactions are between local subsets of agents. However, one limitation of DCOPs is the assumption that the constraint rewards are without uncertainty. Researchers have thus extended DCOPs to Stochastic DCOPs (SDCOPs), where rewards are sampled from known probability distribution reward functions, and introduced algorithms to find solutions with the largest expected reward. Unfortunately, such a solution might be very risky, that is, very likely to result in a poor reward. Thus, in this paper, we make three contributions: (1) we propose a stricter objective for ...


System Of Systems Perspective On Risk: Towards A Unified Concept, C. Ariel Pinto, Michael K. Mcshane, Ipek Bozkurt Jan 2012

System Of Systems Perspective On Risk: Towards A Unified Concept, C. Ariel Pinto, Michael K. Mcshane, Ipek Bozkurt

Finance Faculty Publications

Many systems and projects that concern systems engineers, engineering managers, and business managers today can be defined as system of systems (SoS), which are described as ambiguous, uncertain and dynamic, among others. In addition to the traditional view on risk identification, analysis and management, the concept of risk should be considered with respect to these systems of systems. The purpose of this paper is to analyse both fundamental concepts and recent publications in system of systems, business and engineering management, as well as risk analysis, modelling, and management for the purpose of better describing the concept of risk with respect ...


Development Of A Cost Minimizing Strategy To Mitigate Bird Mortalities In A Wind Farm, Karamvir Singh Jan 2012

Development Of A Cost Minimizing Strategy To Mitigate Bird Mortalities In A Wind Farm, Karamvir Singh

Masters Theses 1911 - February 2014

Wind is the second largest renewable energy source after solar. It is one of the fastest growing sources of electricity in the world and currently of wind energy is installed in the United States and an additional is under construction (Office of Energy and Environment Affairs, 2011). For the growth of wind electricity, one of the most prominent environmental concerns relates to the death of birds, bats and other avian species resulting from collision with turbine blades.

This thesis develops a model that provides the optimal strategy of turning the turbines off in a wind farm for certain periods to ...


Robust Distributed Scheduling Via Time Period Aggregation, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau Jan 2012

Robust Distributed Scheduling Via Time Period Aggregation, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau

Research Collection School Of Information Systems

In this paper, we evaluate whether the robustness of a market mechanism that allocates complementary resources could be improved through the aggregation of time periods in which resources are consumed. In particular, we study a multi-round combinatorial auction that is built on a general equilibrium framework. We adopt the general equilibrium framework and the particular combinatorial auction design from the literature, and we investigate the benefits and the limitation of time-period aggregation when demand-side uncertainties are introduced. By using simulation experiments on a real-life resource allocation problem from a container port, we show that, under stochastic conditions, the performance variation ...


Decentralized Decision Support For An Agent Population In Dynamic And Uncertain Domains, Pradeep Reddy Varakantham, Shih-Fen Cheng, Thi Duong Nguyen May 2011

Decentralized Decision Support For An Agent Population In Dynamic And Uncertain Domains, Pradeep Reddy Varakantham, Shih-Fen Cheng, Thi Duong Nguyen

Research Collection School Of Information Systems

This research is motivated by problems in urban transportation and labor mobility, where the agent flow is dynamic, non-deterministic and on a large scale. In such domains, even though the individual agents do not have an identity of their own and do not explicitly impact other agents, they have implicit interactions with other agents. While there has been much research in handling such implicit effects, it has primarily assumed controlled movements of agents in static environments. We address the issue of decision support for individual agents having involuntary movements in dynamic environments . For instance, in a taxi fleet serving a ...


Distributed Model Shaping For Scaling To Decentralized Pomdps With Hundreds Of Agents, Prasanna Velagapudi, Pradeep Reddy Varakantham, Katia Sycara, Paul Scerri May 2011

Distributed Model Shaping For Scaling To Decentralized Pomdps With Hundreds Of Agents, Prasanna Velagapudi, Pradeep Reddy Varakantham, Katia Sycara, Paul Scerri

Research Collection School Of Information Systems

The use of distributed POMDPs for cooperative teams has been severely limited by the incredibly large joint policy- space that results from combining the policy-spaces of the individual agents. However, much of the computational cost of exploring the entire joint policy space can be avoided by observing that in many domains important interactions between agents occur in a relatively small set of scenarios, previously defined as coordination locales (CLs) [11]. Moreover, even when numerous interactions might occur, given a set of individual policies there are relatively few actual interactions. Exploiting this observation and building on an existing model shaping algorithm ...


Long Term Resource Planning For Electric Power Systems Under Uncertainty, Sarah M. Ryan, James D. Mccalley, David L. Woodruff Jan 2011

Long Term Resource Planning For Electric Power Systems Under Uncertainty, Sarah M. Ryan, James D. Mccalley, David L. Woodruff

Sarah M. Ryan

Electric power systems are subject to uncertainties of many types and at many levels. In addition to the uncertain fuel prices, demand growth, and equipment outages included in traditional models, current trends portend increasing uncertainty due to such factors as the growth in generation from renewable sources which may be intermittent, the possibility of regulations to control carbon emissions, and the increasing price responsiveness of demand encouraged by smart grid technologies. This paper begins by discussing issues that confront electric system planners and explains the requirements for useful tools. We continue with a description of academic and commercial planning models ...


Font Size: Make Font Size Smaller Make Font Size Default Make Font Size Larger Exploiting Coordination Locales In Distributed Pomdps Via Social Model Shaping, Pradeep Varakantham, Jun Young Kwak, Matthew Taylor, Janusz Marecki, Paul Scerri, Milind Tambe Sep 2009

Font Size: Make Font Size Smaller Make Font Size Default Make Font Size Larger Exploiting Coordination Locales In Distributed Pomdps Via Social Model Shaping, Pradeep Varakantham, Jun Young Kwak, Matthew Taylor, Janusz Marecki, Paul Scerri, Milind Tambe

Research Collection School Of Information Systems

Distributed POMDPs provide an expressive framework for modeling multiagent collaboration problems, but NEXPComplete complexity hinders their scalability and application in real-world domains. This paper introduces a subclass of distributed POMDPs, and TREMOR, an algorithm to solve such distributed POMDPs. The primary novelty of TREMOR is that agents plan individually with a single agent POMDP solver and use social model shaping to implicitly coordinate with other agents. Experiments demonstrate that TREMOR can provide solutions orders of magnitude faster than existing algorithms while achieving comparable, or even superior, solution quality.


Investments In Energy Technological Change Under Uncertainty, Ekundayo Shittu Feb 2009

Investments In Energy Technological Change Under Uncertainty, Ekundayo Shittu

Doctoral Dissertations 1896 - February 2014

This dissertation addresses the crucial problem of how environmental policy uncertainty influences investments in energy technological change. The rising level of carbon emissions due to increasing global energy consumption calls for policy shift. In order to stem the negative consequences on the climate, policymakers are concerned with carving an optimal regulation that will encourage technology investments. However, decision makers are facing uncertainties surrounding future environmental policy. The first part considers the treatment of technological change in theoretical models.

This part has two purposes: (1) to show-through illustrative examples-that technological change can lead to quite different, and surprising, impacts on the ...


Development Of A Decision Tool For Green Energy Investment In The Pioneer Valley, Benjamin R. Ewing Jan 2009

Development Of A Decision Tool For Green Energy Investment In The Pioneer Valley, Benjamin R. Ewing

Masters Theses 1911 - February 2014

We present the process followed to create a decision-aid tool for use in renewable energy and energy efficiency investment decisions. Our tool is targeted at home and small business owners in the Pioneer Valley. We begin with the development of two prototype tools. The first was created for the Hitchcock Center for the Environment, and is an Excel-based tool that allows users to select various combinations of technologies and instantly see the financial, environmental, and educational impacts of their choice. The second examines only two technologies, solar photovoltaics and combined heat and power, and uses a cost minimization approach. These ...


Long Term Power Generation Planning Under Uncertainty, Shan Jin Jan 2009

Long Term Power Generation Planning Under Uncertainty, Shan Jin

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Generation expansion planning concerns investment and operation decisions for different types of power plants over a multi-decade horizon under various uncertainties. The goal of this research is to improve decision-making under various long term uncertainties and assure a robust generation expansion plan with low cost and risk over all possible future scenarios. In a multi-year numerical case study, we present a procedure to deal with the long term uncertainties by first modeling them as a multidimensional stochastic process and then generating a scenario tree accordingly. Two-stage stochastic programming is applied to minimize the total expected cost, and robust optimization is ...


Distributing Complementary Resources Across Multiple Periods With Stochastic Demand, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau Dec 2008

Distributing Complementary Resources Across Multiple Periods With Stochastic Demand, Shih-Fen Cheng, John Tajan, Hoong Chuin Lau

Research Collection School Of Information Systems

In this paper, we evaluate whether the robustness of a market mechanism that allocates complementary resources could be improved through the aggregation of time periods in which resources are consumed. In particular, we study a multi-round combinatorial auction that is built on a general equilibrium framework. We adopt the general equilibrium framework and the particular combinatorial auction design from the literature, and we investigate the benefits and the limitation of time-period aggregation when demand-side uncertainties are introduced. By using simulation experiments, we show that under stochastic conditions the performance variation of the process decreases as the time frame length (time ...