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Decision making

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Articles 1 - 30 of 40

Full-Text Articles in Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering

Design Of A Distributed Real-Time E-Health Cyber Ecosystem With Collective Actions: Diagnosis, Dynamic Queueing, And Decision Making, Yanlin Zhou May 2018

Design Of A Distributed Real-Time E-Health Cyber Ecosystem With Collective Actions: Diagnosis, Dynamic Queueing, And Decision Making, Yanlin Zhou

Theses, Dissertations, and Student Research from Electrical & Computer Engineering

In this thesis, we develop a framework for E-health Cyber Ecosystems, and look into different involved actors. The three interested parties in the ecosystem including patients, doctors, and healthcare providers are discussed in 3 different phases. In Phase 1, machine-learning based modeling and simulation analysis is performed to remotely predict a patient's risk level of having heart diseases in real time. In Phase 2, an online dynamic queueing model is devised to pair doctors with patients having high risk levels (diagnosed in Phase 1) to confirm the risk, and provide help. In Phase 3, a decision making paradigm is ...


Optimal Decision Making For Capacitated Reverse Logistics Networks With Quality Variations, Sajjad Farahani May 2018

Optimal Decision Making For Capacitated Reverse Logistics Networks With Quality Variations, Sajjad Farahani

Theses and Dissertations

Increasing concerns about the environmental impact of production, product take-back laws and dwindling natural resources have heightened the need to address the impact of disposing end-of-life (EOL) products. To cope this challenge, manufacturers have integrated reverse logistics into their supply chain or chosen to outsource product recovery activities to third party firms. The uncertain quality of returns as well as uncertainty in return flow limit the effectiveness of planning, control and monitoring of reverse logistics networks. In addition, there are different recovery routes for each returned product such as reuse, repair, disassembling, remanufacturing and recycling. To determine the most profitable ...


Experimental Designs, Meta-Modeling, And Meta-Learning For Mixed-Factor Systems With Large Decision Spaces, Zachary C. Little Mar 2018

Experimental Designs, Meta-Modeling, And Meta-Learning For Mixed-Factor Systems With Large Decision Spaces, Zachary C. Little

Theses and Dissertations

Many Air Force studies require a design and analysis process that can accommodate for the computational challenges associated with complex systems, simulations, and real-world decisions. For systems with large decision spaces and a mixture of continuous, discrete, and categorical factors, nearly orthogonal-and-balanced (NOAB) designs can be used as efficient, representative subsets of all possible design points for system evaluation, where meta-models are then fitted to act as surrogates to system outputs. The mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulations used to construct first-order NOAB designs are extended to solve for low correlation between second-order model terms (i.e., two-way interactions and quadratics ...


Managing Strategic Intellectual Property Assets In The Fuzzy Front End Of New Product Development Process, Yonghee Cho, Tugrul U. Daim Jan 2018

Managing Strategic Intellectual Property Assets In The Fuzzy Front End Of New Product Development Process, Yonghee Cho, Tugrul U. Daim

Joseph Cho

The strategic use of intellectual property (IP) is crucial for technology-based companies to gain competitive advantage. The recent transformation of the US patent system brings new challenges and opportunities in this arena. In this regard, this study attempts to identify techniques which can help with IP evaluation and selection in the fuzzy front end (FFE) of new product development (NPD) process. This study combines data collection methods such as mining the literature, conducting in-depth interviews, surveying questionnaires, and analyzing cases. This research serves as an analysis of modern literature and identifies a multi-criteria weighted scoring model that can be employed ...


A Comprehensive End-Of-Life Strategy Decision Making Approach To Handle Uncertainty In The Product Design Stage, Junfeng Ma, Gul E. Okudan-Kremer, Charles David Ray Nov 2017

A Comprehensive End-Of-Life Strategy Decision Making Approach To Handle Uncertainty In The Product Design Stage, Junfeng Ma, Gul E. Okudan-Kremer, Charles David Ray

Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering Publications

This study employs fuzzy logic to evaluate uncertain component end-of-life (EOL) options in the design stage. Determining EOL strategies during the product design stage can be complex. For example, EOL strategies for retired bicycle components are various and may change with geographic location. Thus, adopting fixed EOL strategies in the product design stage may not always be appropriate; the element of uncertainty should be considered. Limited research has examined uncertainty of EOL strategies during the design stage. Moreover, the evaluation of EOL strategies in a comprehensive manner has not been shown in a realistic case study. These facts motivate this ...


Diversity Team Building: Impact On Virtual Team Performance, Nina C. Magpili-Smith Jul 2017

Diversity Team Building: Impact On Virtual Team Performance, Nina C. Magpili-Smith

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Although organizations have addressed diversity issues at the organizational-level with resulting positive employee outcomes, lack of scholarly attention to team-level interventions remain. Team-level interventions would benefit organizations more directly as they address issues directly related to task accomplishment. Since diversity may lead to negative performance results for teams, a team building intervention based on the latest empirical research was developed and tested to address the potential performance losses associated to diversity in decision-making teams. The team building intervention provides six crucial elements, namely (1) direct experience of how deep-level team diversity affect team dynamics, (2) diversity education, (3) cultivation of ...


Evaluating Forecasting Methods By Considering Different Accuracy Measures, Nijat Mehdiyev, David Lee Enke, Peter Fettke, Peter Loos Nov 2016

Evaluating Forecasting Methods By Considering Different Accuracy Measures, Nijat Mehdiyev, David Lee Enke, Peter Fettke, Peter Loos

Engineering Management and Systems Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works

Choosing the appropriate forecasting technique to employ is a challenging issue and requires a comprehensive analysis of empirical results. Recent research findings reveal that the performance evaluation of forecasting models depends on the accuracy measures adopted. Some methods indicate superior performance when error based metrics are used, while others perform better when precision values are adopted as accuracy measures. As scholars tend to use a smaller subset of accuracy metrics to assess the performance of forecasting models, there is a need for a concept of multiple accuracy dimensions to assure the robustness of evaluation. Therefore, the main purpose of this ...


A Temporal Framework For Hypergame Analysis Of Cyber Physical Systems In Contested Environments, Nicholas S. Kovach Sep 2016

A Temporal Framework For Hypergame Analysis Of Cyber Physical Systems In Contested Environments, Nicholas S. Kovach

Theses and Dissertations

Game theory is used to model conflicts between one or more players over resources. It offers players a way to reason, allowing rationale for selecting strategies that avoid the worst outcome. Game theory lacks the ability to incorporate advantages one player may have over another player. A meta-game, known as a hypergame, occurs when one player does not know or fully understand all the strategies of a game. Hypergame theory builds upon the utility of game theory by allowing a player to outmaneuver an opponent, thus obtaining a more preferred outcome with higher utility. Recent work in hypergame theory has ...


Understanding Risk Perception Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Pei Zhang, Antoine J. Jetter Sep 2016

Understanding Risk Perception Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Pei Zhang, Antoine J. Jetter

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

When making decision that can have far-researching effects, such as governmental policies or decisions on new technologies, decision-makers use their understanding of the risks that are associated with their choices to guide their decisions. Measuring how people perceive risks can be helpful for understanding and possibly improving the decision-making process. Building on a review of existing methods for investigating risk perceptions, this paper suggests Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) as a method for investigating differences in risk perception among stakeholders and stakeholder groups. The approach is illustrated with an example of wildfire risk perceptions. Results suggest that FCM can contribute to ...


Simultaneous Optimization And Sampling Of Agent Trajectories Over A Network, Hala Mostafa, Akshat Kumar, Hoong Chuin Lau May 2016

Simultaneous Optimization And Sampling Of Agent Trajectories Over A Network, Hala Mostafa, Akshat Kumar, Hoong Chuin Lau

Research Collection School Of Information Systems

We study the problem of optimizing the trajectories of agents moving over a network given their preferences over which nodes to visit subject to operational constraints on the network. In our running example, a theme park manager optimizes which attractions to include in a day-pass to maximize the pass’s appeal to visitors while keeping operational costs within budget. The first challenge in this combinatorial optimization problem is that it involves quantities (expected visit frequencies of each attraction) that cannot be expressed analytically, for which we use the Sample Average Approximation. The second challenge is that while sampling is typically ...


Shortest Path Based Decision Making Using Probabilistic Inference, Akshat Kumar Feb 2016

Shortest Path Based Decision Making Using Probabilistic Inference, Akshat Kumar

Research Collection School Of Information Systems

We present a new perspective on the classical shortest path routing (SPR) problem in graphs. We show that the SPR problem can be recast to that of probabilistic inference in a mixture of simple Bayesian networks. Maximizing the likelihood in this mixture becomes equivalent to solving the SPR problem. We develop the well known Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for the SPR problem that maximizes the likelihood, and show that it does not get stuck in a locally optimal solution. Using the same probabilistic framework, we then address an NP-Hard network design problem where the goal is to repair a network of ...


On Valuing Biopharmaceutical Product Pipelines: An Effectuation Model And Evidence, Mark J. Ahn, Anne S. York, Wei Wu, Yulianto Suharto, Tugrul Unsal Daim Dec 2015

On Valuing Biopharmaceutical Product Pipelines: An Effectuation Model And Evidence, Mark J. Ahn, Anne S. York, Wei Wu, Yulianto Suharto, Tugrul Unsal Daim

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

New creative approaches are needed to manage emerging biotechnology innovations, regulations, and payor environments to enhance product pipeline productivity, valuation, and risk management. Biopharmaceutical firms must make dynamic resource allocation decisions on their relative levels of internal R&D and external strategic alliances in furthering their pipelines. As the predominant method of using discounted cash flow (DCF) methodologies may lead to chronic underinvestment and performance, we evaluated the integration of traditional DCF with an effectuation model of analysis. Unlike traditional financial models that begin with the end goal of assumed known cash flows and recursively solve for portfolio optimization, the ...


Assessing The Effectiveness Of Big Data Initiatives, Nayem Rahman, Fahad Aldhaban Aug 2015

Assessing The Effectiveness Of Big Data Initiatives, Nayem Rahman, Fahad Aldhaban

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

There is a great enthusiasm with the prospect of big data among business and industry leaders, academia and researchers. A lot of big data tools and technologies have emerged recently to capture, store, process and analyze big data. One remarkable achievement is that a handful of open source technologies have been introduced by Apache Hadoop Foundation that allows any organization to undertake big data projects. Many big data projects have been implemented during the last few years. This paper explores the benefits achieved with those projects. Big data has been applied in diverse fields including scientific and medical discovery projects ...


Explaining Health Technology Adoption: Past, Present, Future, Noshad Rahimi, Antonie J. Jetter Aug 2015

Explaining Health Technology Adoption: Past, Present, Future, Noshad Rahimi, Antonie J. Jetter

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

One of the most pressing challenges of healthcare innovation today is the lack of technology adoption. Research that improves our ability to understand, predict, and advance technology adoption in health care needs to be based on well-tested theories. With the interest to conduct high quality research in health technology adoption in future, this study reviews the theories used in this context to either identify the superior theory(ies) and or discover the issues that need resolution for improving future HTA researches. To do that, the most popular [1][2] social cognitive theories conceived over the past four decades are reviewed ...


Connecting Customers With Engineers For The Successful Fuzzy Front End: Requirements Of Tools, Byung Sung Yoon, Antonie J. Jetter Aug 2015

Connecting Customers With Engineers For The Successful Fuzzy Front End: Requirements Of Tools, Byung Sung Yoon, Antonie J. Jetter

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

In technology-driven enterprises, marketing typically acts as a “go-between” that captures customer needs and experiences and aggregates and interprets them for engineering. Knowledge exchange thus occurs through an indirect path. However, as a result of rapidly changing and unpredictable environments and complex products with tacit requirements, companies increasingly emphasize the need for engineering to be more strongly engaged with customers'. Accordingly, an increasing number of methods for customer research in early stages on new product development, the so-called fuzzy front end (FFE), emphasize direct knowledge exchange and collaboration between engineering and customers. Based on a review of the literature, this ...


Project Ranking Using Partial Ranks, Jiali Ju, Pei Zhang, Tim R. Anderson Aug 2015

Project Ranking Using Partial Ranks, Jiali Ju, Pei Zhang, Tim R. Anderson

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

A competition was recently held for new elder care technologies and a method was needed for selecting an audience favorite project. Since each of the eight projects received a half hour presentation time slot spread out over a full day, attendance varied significantly with morning projects having a much lower attendance. An algorithm was desired that was robust with respect to varying evaluator. A new algorithm for aggregating ranks from a large number of incomplete judgment was developed and applied to the projects to select a winner. This paper presents the new algorithm, tests the new approach against others in ...


Project Management In Product Development: Toward A Framework For Targeted Flexibility, Antonie J. Jetter, Fatima Albar Aug 2015

Project Management In Product Development: Toward A Framework For Targeted Flexibility, Antonie J. Jetter, Fatima Albar

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

As a discipline, project management has been accused of having lost its relevance for innovative initiatives because it emphasizes planning and control over the flexibility and learning-based strategies that are needed to succeed under uncertainty. Several authors therefore recommend adaptive project management practices - sometimes named “targeted flexibility” - that respond to project characteristics commonly found in innovation, namely novelty, complexity, speed and - as a result - uncertainty. This paper investigates how this proposed adaptation of project management occurs in a context with high levels of novelty that organizes work in projects and needs to accommodate projects of different pace, complexity and innovativeness ...


A Framework To Simplify The Choice Of Alternative Analysis And Selection Methods, James Paul Lewis Holzgrefe Jul 2015

A Framework To Simplify The Choice Of Alternative Analysis And Selection Methods, James Paul Lewis Holzgrefe

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation contributes a framework for analysts and engineering managers to investigate and choose alternative analysis and selection methods based upon their problem and its context. It began as an investigation into the alternative analysis and selection methods used in military planning. The existing military methods were inconsistent, violated the decision science body of knowledge, and provided no guidance to the practitioner on matching methods to problems. These challenges made it necessary to conduct this investigation.

This research used a three-phase mixed methods approach. The first phase applied the general inductive method to the decision making body of knowledge to ...


Managing The Economic Constraints Of Foundries And Fabless Enterprises, Charles M. Weber, Jiting Yang May 2015

Managing The Economic Constraints Of Foundries And Fabless Enterprises, Charles M. Weber, Jiting Yang

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper presents an empirically grounded model, which links organizational learning to pattern-specific fixed costs. The approach described in this paper helps fab managers make fundamental strategic decisions concerning product design and product mix by engaging in scenario planning. Four critical aspects of managing pattern-specific fixed cost are analyzed in detail – sensitivity to time, design cost and production volume; platform designs; process postponement solutions; and design penalties. The model suggests that fabless enterprises and foundries must collaborate extensively on the design and realizations of product platforms for state-of-the-art integrated circuit products to remain economically viable.


Pragmatic Divestment Of Kc-135 Navigators In The Special Operations Air Refueling Mission, Andrew P. Nation Mar 2015

Pragmatic Divestment Of Kc-135 Navigators In The Special Operations Air Refueling Mission, Andrew P. Nation

Theses and Dissertations

In the late 1990s, the Air Force eliminated over 200 KC-135 navigators, leaving 50 remaining for the aircraft's most complex Special Operations Air Refueling (SOAR) mission. As the Air Force unveils the KC-46 Pegasus, this mission will continue but without a position for the navigator. Instead, navigators will undergo divestment as the SOAR mission transfers to the KC-46. Current plans indicate navigators will not only remain as the KC-46 arrives, but inbound navigators will continue arriving until 2018. This thesis applies the Delphi method, a process eliciting analysis anonymously from a panel of experts, in order to examine the ...


Semantic Shift To Pragmatic Meaning In Shared Decision Making: Situation Theory Perspective, M. Canan, A. Sousa-Poza, S. F. Kovacic Jan 2015

Semantic Shift To Pragmatic Meaning In Shared Decision Making: Situation Theory Perspective, M. Canan, A. Sousa-Poza, S. F. Kovacic

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The way humans establish communication depends on the generation and conveyance of meaning. Linguistically, meaning in information is dependent on the meaning that is ascribed to signifiers in the context of the communication. These signifiers can include items such as words, phrases, signs, and symbols. Conveyance of meaning may, however, imprecise and prone to error. The meaning of information in communication may arise from a change in the context in which a signifier is placed (intrinsic), or a change in the paradigm with which the signifier and context are perceived (extrinsic). In simple situations, where paradigms are reconcilable, semantic shift ...


Opening The Door To Breakthroughs That Address Strategic Organizational Needs: Applying Technology Roadmapping Tools And Techniques At An Electric Utility, James V. Hillegas-Elting, Terry Oliver, Joshua Binus, Tugrul Unsal Daim, Judith Estep, Jisun Kim Jan 2015

Opening The Door To Breakthroughs That Address Strategic Organizational Needs: Applying Technology Roadmapping Tools And Techniques At An Electric Utility, James V. Hillegas-Elting, Terry Oliver, Joshua Binus, Tugrul Unsal Daim, Judith Estep, Jisun Kim

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Over the course of a decade, the Bonneville Power Administration's Technology Innovation Office has developed a roadmapping approach that captures business challenges and opportunities critical to the agency, links these with barriers to success, and connects these with technical solutions and research questions. Senior leaders from across the agency establish strategic goals and objectives, and international technical subject matter experts are convened to articulate technology-associated paths to achieve these. Each roadmap captures insights from diverse experts in highly collaborative environments and focuses them on critically important topics. These roadmaps are an important element in the Bonneville Power Administration's ...


A Decision Analysis Framework For Evaluation Of Helmet Mounted Display Alternatives For Fighter Aircraft, Matthew R. Dansereau Dec 2014

A Decision Analysis Framework For Evaluation Of Helmet Mounted Display Alternatives For Fighter Aircraft, Matthew R. Dansereau

Theses and Dissertations

The promise of providing an intuitive and efficient information interface, while allowing the warfighter to perform other critical tasks such as targeting or aircraft control, has led to the growing popularity of Helmet Mounted Displays (HMDs) across the military landscape, especially combat aircraft. Though design and selection of competing systems is critical to optimized performance and safety, structured methods for the evaluation of HMDs are not often used in the acquisition community, leaving selection among alternative designs to the judgment of subject matter experts. However, technical decision-making has been shown to be flawed without the use of a structured decision ...


Harmonized Decision Modeling Process For Smart Grid Component Allocation, Seung Yup Kim, Kyoung-Yun Kim, Evrim Dalkiran Jan 2014

Harmonized Decision Modeling Process For Smart Grid Component Allocation, Seung Yup Kim, Kyoung-Yun Kim, Evrim Dalkiran

Center for e-Design Proceedings

This article presents a harmonized decision modeling framework for smart grid component allocation. The harmonized decision modeling process is intended to realize a decision support system for the smart grid system analysis. The traditional decision modeling processes have mainly stresses the economic feasibility of smart grid systems. However, the mathematical programming-based decision models for component allocation in smart grid systems are often designed without the enough consideration on the operational circumstances of component, and it reduces the utility of the solution. Our framework considers the operational circumstances of the system and the feasibility in terms of solving process for achieving ...


Equipment Maintenance And Replacement Decision Making Processes, Michael W. Gage Dec 2013

Equipment Maintenance And Replacement Decision Making Processes, Michael W. Gage

Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

This project contains recommendations for the decision making processes for support and production equipment maintenance and replacement for a large defense contractor. Recent literature has been reviewed to provide perspective on current trends in the field. A complete evaluation of their current processes and systems is included with recommendations on areas for improvement. A decision support system is also proposed to supplement their existing decision making.


Effects Of Signal Ambiguity And Signal Location On Target Detection Under Varying Degrees Of Time Constraint, Kimberly E. Culley Jan 2013

Effects Of Signal Ambiguity And Signal Location On Target Detection Under Varying Degrees Of Time Constraint, Kimberly E. Culley

Psychology Theses & Dissertations

The purpose of the current study was to investigate the effects of decision-making strategies and tendencies, time constraint, and signal characteristics on decision-making performance utilizing the fuzzy signal detection theory framework. Participants were tasked with deciding whether x-ray images of passenger luggage contained hazardous objects.

The first objective of the study was to develop a methodology for quantifying optimizing versus satisficing tendencies in decision making through direct measurement and observation.

The second objective of the study was to examine how time constraint and specific signal characteristics contribute to decision making. Interestingly, despite having more time available to conduct a comprehensive ...


Development Of A Quality Decision-Making Scenario To Measure How Employees Handle Out-Of-Condition Grain, Gretchen A. Mosher, Nir Keren, Charles R. Hurburgh Jr. Jan 2013

Development Of A Quality Decision-Making Scenario To Measure How Employees Handle Out-Of-Condition Grain, Gretchen A. Mosher, Nir Keren, Charles R. Hurburgh Jr.

Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering Publications

Quality management systems have been shown to improve inventory management, increase internal efficiencies, and enhance the ability of businesses to meet customer specifications, but little work has explored the role of employee decisions in the success of such systems. This work used the methodology of process-tracing to examine the decision-making process of grain elevator employees (n=164) as they determined how to handle out-of-condition corn. Employees overwhelmingly chose to either follow management orders or to make a non-choice rather than to make a decision which would preserve the quality of the grain. Employees equally emphasized decision-making dimensions of storage risk ...


Supply Chain Network Design: Risk-Averse Vs. Risk-Neutral Decision Making, Alireza Madadi Dec 2012

Supply Chain Network Design: Risk-Averse Vs. Risk-Neutral Decision Making, Alireza Madadi

All Dissertations

Recent events, such as the Heparin tragedy, highlight the necessity for designers and planners of supply chain networks to consider the risk of disruptions in spite of their low probability of occurrence. One effective way to hedge against supply chain network disruptions is to have a robustly designed supply chain network. This involves strategic decisions, such as choosing which markets to serve, which suppliers to source from, the location of plants, the types of facilities to use, and tactical decisions, such as production and capacity allocation. In this dissertation, we focus on models for designing supply chain networks that are ...


Epistemic Uncertainty Analysis: An Approach Using Expert Judgment And Evidential Credibility, Patrick Hester Jan 2012

Epistemic Uncertainty Analysis: An Approach Using Expert Judgment And Evidential Credibility, Patrick Hester

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

When dealing with complex systems, all decision making occurs under some level of uncertainty. This is due to the physical attributes of the system being analyzed, the environment in which the system operates, and the individuals which operate the system. Techniques for decision making that rely on traditional probability theory have been extensively pursued to incorporate these inherent aleatory uncertainties. However, complex problems also typically include epistemic uncertainties that result from lack of knowledge. These problems are fundamentally different and cannot be addressed in the same fashion. In these instances, decision makers typically use subject matter expert judgment to assist ...


The Effects Of Weather Recognition Training On General Aviation Pilot Situation Assessment And Tactical Decision Making When Confronted With Adverse Weather Conditions, Chansik Kim Aug 2011

The Effects Of Weather Recognition Training On General Aviation Pilot Situation Assessment And Tactical Decision Making When Confronted With Adverse Weather Conditions, Chansik Kim

All Dissertations

Previous general aviation (GA) accident studies showed that decision errors were more associated with fatal GA accidents than other kinds of human errors, and weather related accidents, especially continued visual flight rules (VFR) flight into instrument meteorological conditions (IMC), remained the major cause of fatal GA accidents. Thus, finding the underlying causes of GA pilots' decision errors and continued VFR flight into adverse weather conditions are needed to reduce weather related GA accidents as well as fatal GA accidents.
Causal factors and hypotheses of weather related GA accidents show that knowledge, experience, motivation, and weather information frequently have been referred ...