Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

Design Space Visualization And Exploration For Many Goal Problems Under Uncertainity, Niharika Balaji

Theses and Dissertations

ABSTRACT

Designing a complex engineered system is challenging due to many conflicting goals, uncertainties, and multiple interactions. Traditional optimization approaches often yield single-point solutions, which may not be suitable for early design stages due to their susceptibility to changes in conditions and uncertainties. To address this challenge, a satisficing approach is employed. This approach enables designers to effectively navigate the design space and identify satisficing solutions that balance conflicting goals in the face of uncertainties and changes in conditions. From a systems design perspective, we view design as an iterative process that involves making informed decisions based on available information …

Optimal Global Supply Chain And Warehouse Planning Under Uncertainty, Avnish Kishor Malde

All Dissertations

A manufacturing company's inbound supply chain consists of various processes such as procurement, consolidation, and warehousing. Each of these processes is the focus of a different chapter in this dissertation.

The manufacturer depends on its suppliers to provide the raw materials and parts required to manufacture a finished product. These suppliers can be located locally or overseas with respect to the manufacturer's geographic location. The ordering and transportation lead times are shorter if the supplier is located locally. Just In Time (JIT) or Just In Sequence (JIS) inventory management methods could be practiced by the manufacturer to procure the raw …

Selected Interdiction Games With Uncertain, Risk-Averse, And Simultaneous Play Considerations, Di H. Nguyen

All Dissertations

This dissertation examines two network interdiction problems: a shortest-path interdiction problem under uncertainty and a network interdiction problem in a simultaneous game. Both problems happen in two stages over a directed network, and involve a leader and a follower who have opposing interests.

In the first problem, the leader acts first to lengthen a subset of arcs, and a follower acts second to select a shortest path across the network. The cost for a follower’s arc consists of a base cost if the arc is not interdicted, plus an additional cost that is incurred if the arc is interdicted. The …

Modeling Portfolios Of Low Carbon Energy Generation Under Deep Uncertainty, Franklyn Kanyako

Doctoral Dissertations

In the 2015 Paris Agreement, nearly every country pledge through the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) increased adoption of low carbon energy technologies in their energy system. However, allocating investments to different low carbon energy technologies under rising demand for energy and budget constraints, uncertain technical change in these technologies involves maneuvering significant uncertainties among experts, models, and decision-makers. We examine the interactions of low carbon energy sources (LCES) under the condition of deep uncertainty. Deep uncertainty directly impacts the understanding of the role of low carbon energy technologies in climate change mitigation and how much R&D investment should be allocated …

Uncertainty And Error In Combat Modeling, Simulation, And Analysis, Jason A. Blake

Theses and Dissertations

Due to the infrequent and competitive nature of combat, several challenges present themselves when developing a predictive simulation. First, there is limited data with which to validate such analysis tools. Secondly, there are many aspects of combat modeling that are highly uncertain and not knowable. This research develops a comprehensive set of techniques for the treatment of uncertainty and error in combat modeling and simulation analysis. First, Evidence Theory is demonstrated as a framework for representing epistemic uncertainty in combat modeling output. Next, a novel method for sensitivity analysis of uncertainty in Evidence Theory is developed. This sensitivity analysis method …

Methods For Incorporating Ecological Impacts With Climate Uncertainty To Support Robust Flood Management Decision-Making, Caitlin M. Spence

Doctoral Dissertations

Modern and historic flood risk management involves accommodating multiple sources of sources of uncertainty and potential impacts across a broad range of interrelated sectors. Sources of uncertainty that affect planning include internal climate variability, anthropogenic changes such as land use and system performance expectations, and more recently changes in climatology that affect the resources supporting the system. Flood management systems potentially impact human settlements within and beyond the systems’ scope of planning, local weather patterns, and associated ecological systems. Federal guidelines across nations have called for greater consideration of uncertainty and impacts of water resources planning projects, but methods for …

Technology Decisions In New Product Development, Amir Sanayei

Wayne State University Dissertations

Selecting the right technology is one of the most important and challenging decisions in new product development (NPD) process that can greatly affect all downstream design activities which have a great impact on product success in the market place. Although new technologies may bring more competitive advantage by offering higher performance to price, they also make the NPD process more risky and challenging. We model the technology selection problem of a firm that is defining its new product in the presence of the technology uncertainty. At each review stage, firm has the options: select and commit to any technology alternatives …

Inventory Management And Control "For A Cause", John Michael Miller

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Companies today are changing the culture of business and beginning to involve more than just labor and money in overall decisions. Just as sustainability issues and humanitarian logistics are gaining popularity, so is the idea of using business to make a difference on society in addition to making a profit. As companies position themselves across the globe to make an impact, they employ people in third-world environments that create uncertainties on both the supply and demand sides. Also, the idea of strategically planning work with the goal of minimizing costs has been replaced by companies wanting to give more work …

A Mechanism Design Approach To Bandwidth Allocation In Tactical Data Networks, Ankur Mour

Open Access Theses

The defense sector is undergoing a phase of rapid technological advancement, in the pursuit of its goal of information superiority. This goal depends on a large network of complex interconnected systems - sensors, weapons, soldiers - linked through a maze of heterogeneous networks. The sheer scale and size of these networks prompt behaviors that go beyond conglomerations of systems or `system-of-systems'. The lack of a central locus and disjointed, competing interests among large clusters of systems makes this characteristic of an Ultra Large Scale (ULS) system. These traits of ULS systems challenge and undermine the fundamental assumptions of today's software …

Investments In Energy Technological Change Under Uncertainty, Ekundayo Shittu

Doctoral Dissertations 1896 - February 2014

This dissertation addresses the crucial problem of how environmental policy uncertainty influences investments in energy technological change. The rising level of carbon emissions due to increasing global energy consumption calls for policy shift. In order to stem the negative consequences on the climate, policymakers are concerned with carving an optimal regulation that will encourage technology investments. However, decision makers are facing uncertainties surrounding future environmental policy. The first part considers the treatment of technological change in theoretical models.

This part has two purposes: (1) to show-through illustrative examples-that technological change can lead to quite different, and surprising, impacts on the …

Performance Based Decisions Under Uncertainty And Risk, Sundeep Samson

All Dissertations

Decision making has became increasingly complex as risky decisions are made in uncertain environments. To minimize risk, the problem of quantifying risk becomes very significant. In our review of the literature, we found a number of different risk measures. A closer study reveals that most of these risk measures define both risk and uncertainty in many different ways.
In this dissertation, we model uncertainty and risk based on the Knightian definition of uncertainty and risk. We propose this alternative modeling paradigm and introduce our decision making methodology by solving an illustrative problem presented by a group of decision makers from …

Defining Risk Assessment Confidence Levels For Use In Project Management Communications, Gary Johnson

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

A review of the literature regarding risk management and effective risk communications identified that very few researchers have addressed risk assessment confidence levels when using risk scoring methods. The focus of this research is to develop a definition of risk assessment confidence levels for use in internal project management communications and to evaluate its usefulness. This research defines risk assessment confidence level as "The degree of certainty that the likelihood or consequence score (assigned by the risk assessor) reflects reality." A specific level of confidence is defined based on the types of analyses that were conducted to determine the risk …

Reducing Uncertainty In Effects-Based Operations, Wilburn B. Mclamb

Theses and Dissertations

Known as the fog of war, uncertainty has been prevalent in the conduct of military operations throughout human history. Intelligence collection efforts are tasked to reduce this uncertainty through the collection of information. Utilizing Shannon's entropy as a measure of the expected information gain due to an intelligence collection effort, a methodology is developed to prioritize and allocate intelligence assets in an efficient manner. Incorporated in this methodology are target priority and the requirement to reassess dynamic targets. The application area for the methodology is Effects-Based Operations. A generalized state model is developed to conduct adversary system-of-systems analysis. This model …

On The Design For Flexibility Of Manufacturing Systems : A Stochiastic Approach, Nathapol Areeratchakul

Dissertations

Flexibility has emerged as one of the most strategic imperatives for company viability in today's fast paced economy. This realization has stimulated extensive research efforts in this area most of which have focused mainly on defining flexibility and its attributes, the need for flexibility and how to measure it. Nevertheless, despite the considerable amount of publications regarding flexibility and its related subjects, insufficient attention has been given to the optimality of the design for flexibility and the inherent needs to meet uncertainty. Bridging this gap is the intent of this work.

In this dissertation, developed analytical models are for the …