Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

Stochastic Programming And Agent-Based Simulation Approaches For Epidemics Control And Logistics Planning, Xuecheng Yin

Dissertations

This dissertation addresses the resource allocation challenges of fighting against infectious disease outbreaks. The goal of this dissertation is to formulate multi-stage stochastic programming and agent-based models to address the limitations of former literature in optimizing resource allocation for preventing and controlling epidemics and pandemics. In the first study, a multi-stage stochastic programming compartmental model is presented to integrate the uncertain disease progression and the logistics of resource allocation to control a highly contagious infectious disease. The proposed multi-stage stochastic program, which involves various disease growth scenarios, optimizes the distribution of treatment centers and resources while minimizing the total expected …

Preferred Treatment Methods For Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease, James L. Deitschel

Theses and Dissertations

Shared decision making is the concept of physicians involving patients in the treatment planning process. The University of Maryland Medical Center is interested in applying shared decision making to the treatment of patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD). The two treatment methods analyzed in this study were medical management and surgery. To explore patient preferences between these two alternatives, a discrete choice experiment (DCE) was employed. The responses for the DCE were binary, so logistic regression models were explored. The conditional logistic regression model was determined to be the most appropriate for this analysis. After step-wise regression was performed, a …

Using Pythagorean Fuzzy Sets (Pfs) In Multiple Criteria Group Decision Making (Mcgdm) Methods For Engineering Materials Selection Applications, Alaa Fouad Momena

Theses and Dissertations

The process of materials’ selection is very critical during the initial stages of designing manufactured products. Inefficient decision-making outcomes in the material selection process could result in poor quality of products and unnecessary costs. In the last century, numerous materials have been developed for manufacturing mechanical components in different industries. Many of these new materials are similar in their properties and performances, thus creating great challenges for designers and engineers to make accurate selections. Our main objective in this work is to assist decision makers (DMs) within the manufacturing field to evaluate materials alternatives and to select the best alternative …

Optimal Decision Making For Capacitated Reverse Logistics Networks With Quality Variations, Sajjad Farahani

Theses and Dissertations

Increasing concerns about the environmental impact of production, product take-back laws and dwindling natural resources have heightened the need to address the impact of disposing end-of-life (EOL) products. To cope this challenge, manufacturers have integrated reverse logistics into their supply chain or chosen to outsource product recovery activities to third party firms. The uncertain quality of returns as well as uncertainty in return flow limit the effectiveness of planning, control and monitoring of reverse logistics networks. In addition, there are different recovery routes for each returned product such as reuse, repair, disassembling, remanufacturing and recycling. To determine the most profitable …

Experimental Designs, Meta-Modeling, And Meta-Learning For Mixed-Factor Systems With Large Decision Spaces, Zachary C. Little

Theses and Dissertations

Many Air Force studies require a design and analysis process that can accommodate for the computational challenges associated with complex systems, simulations, and real-world decisions. For systems with large decision spaces and a mixture of continuous, discrete, and categorical factors, nearly orthogonal-and-balanced (NOAB) designs can be used as efficient, representative subsets of all possible design points for system evaluation, where meta-models are then fitted to act as surrogates to system outputs. The mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulations used to construct first-order NOAB designs are extended to solve for low correlation between second-order model terms (i.e., two-way interactions and quadratics). The …

Diversity Team Building: Impact On Virtual Team Performance, Nina C. Magpili-Smith

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Although organizations have addressed diversity issues at the organizational-level with resulting positive employee outcomes, lack of scholarly attention to team-level interventions remain. Team-level interventions would benefit organizations more directly as they address issues directly related to task accomplishment. Since diversity may lead to negative performance results for teams, a team building intervention based on the latest empirical research was developed and tested to address the potential performance losses associated to diversity in decision-making teams. The team building intervention provides six crucial elements, namely (1) direct experience of how deep-level team diversity affect team dynamics, (2) diversity education, (3) cultivation of …

A Framework To Simplify The Choice Of Alternative Analysis And Selection Methods, James Paul Lewis Holzgrefe

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation contributes a framework for analysts and engineering managers to investigate and choose alternative analysis and selection methods based upon their problem and its context. It began as an investigation into the alternative analysis and selection methods used in military planning. The existing military methods were inconsistent, violated the decision science body of knowledge, and provided no guidance to the practitioner on matching methods to problems. These challenges made it necessary to conduct this investigation.

This research used a three-phase mixed methods approach. The first phase applied the general inductive method to the decision making body of knowledge to …

Pragmatic Divestment Of Kc-135 Navigators In The Special Operations Air Refueling Mission, Andrew P. Nation

Theses and Dissertations

In the late 1990s, the Air Force eliminated over 200 KC-135 navigators, leaving 50 remaining for the aircraft's most complex Special Operations Air Refueling (SOAR) mission. As the Air Force unveils the KC-46 Pegasus, this mission will continue but without a position for the navigator. Instead, navigators will undergo divestment as the SOAR mission transfers to the KC-46. Current plans indicate navigators will not only remain as the KC-46 arrives, but inbound navigators will continue arriving until 2018. This thesis applies the Delphi method, a process eliciting analysis anonymously from a panel of experts, in order to examine the elements …

A Decision Analysis Framework For Evaluation Of Helmet Mounted Display Alternatives For Fighter Aircraft, Matthew R. Dansereau

Theses and Dissertations

The promise of providing an intuitive and efficient information interface, while allowing the warfighter to perform other critical tasks such as targeting or aircraft control, has led to the growing popularity of Helmet Mounted Displays (HMDs) across the military landscape, especially combat aircraft. Though design and selection of competing systems is critical to optimized performance and safety, structured methods for the evaluation of HMDs are not often used in the acquisition community, leaving selection among alternative designs to the judgment of subject matter experts. However, technical decision-making has been shown to be flawed without the use of a structured decision …

Equipment Maintenance And Replacement Decision Making Processes, Michael W. Gage

Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

This project contains recommendations for the decision making processes for support and production equipment maintenance and replacement for a large defense contractor. Recent literature has been reviewed to provide perspective on current trends in the field. A complete evaluation of their current processes and systems is included with recommendations on areas for improvement. A decision support system is also proposed to supplement their existing decision making.

Effects Of Signal Ambiguity And Signal Location On Target Detection Under Varying Degrees Of Time Constraint, Kimberly E. Culley

Psychology Theses & Dissertations

The purpose of the current study was to investigate the effects of decision-making strategies and tendencies, time constraint, and signal characteristics on decision-making performance utilizing the fuzzy signal detection theory framework. Participants were tasked with deciding whether x-ray images of passenger luggage contained hazardous objects.

The first objective of the study was to develop a methodology for quantifying optimizing versus satisficing tendencies in decision making through direct measurement and observation.

The second objective of the study was to examine how time constraint and specific signal characteristics contribute to decision making. Interestingly, despite having more time available to conduct a comprehensive …

Supply Chain Network Design: Risk-Averse Vs. Risk-Neutral Decision Making, Alireza Madadi

All Dissertations

Recent events, such as the Heparin tragedy, highlight the necessity for designers and planners of supply chain networks to consider the risk of disruptions in spite of their low probability of occurrence. One effective way to hedge against supply chain network disruptions is to have a robustly designed supply chain network. This involves strategic decisions, such as choosing which markets to serve, which suppliers to source from, the location of plants, the types of facilities to use, and tactical decisions, such as production and capacity allocation. In this dissertation, we focus on models for designing supply chain networks that are …

The Effects Of Weather Recognition Training On General Aviation Pilot Situation Assessment And Tactical Decision Making When Confronted With Adverse Weather Conditions, Chansik Kim

All Dissertations

Previous general aviation (GA) accident studies showed that decision errors were more associated with fatal GA accidents than other kinds of human errors, and weather related accidents, especially continued visual flight rules (VFR) flight into instrument meteorological conditions (IMC), remained the major cause of fatal GA accidents. Thus, finding the underlying causes of GA pilots' decision errors and continued VFR flight into adverse weather conditions are needed to reduce weather related GA accidents as well as fatal GA accidents.
Causal factors and hypotheses of weather related GA accidents show that knowledge, experience, motivation, and weather information frequently have been referred …

Extending The Strategy Based Risk Model Using The Delphi Method: An Application To The Validation Process For Research And Developmental (R&D) Satellites, Amanda J. Langenbrunner, Mary R. Trautwein

Theses and Dissertations

The validation between a research and developmental satellite and its ground system is critical to ensuring the success on-orbit. However, the exact process for completing validation is not documented, frequently underfunded, and accomplished ad hoc. This leads to debate regarding maintenance of budget and schedule, while ensuring on-orbit success. This thesis examines readiness and on-orbit activities within the U.S. Air Force Space Development and Test Wing's Research Development Test and Evaluation Support Complex. Combining historical data with the consultation of subject matter experts, a validation process was defined. Risks associated with this process were then analyzed using the Strategy Based …

Synthesis, Interdiction, And Protection Of Layered Networks, Kevin T. Kennedy

Theses and Dissertations

This research developed the foundation, theory, and framework for a set of analysis techniques to assist decision makers in analyzing questions regarding the synthesis, interdiction, and protection of infrastructure networks. This includes extension of traditional network interdiction to directly model nodal interdiction; new techniques to identify potential targets in social networks based on extensions of shortest path network interdiction; extension of traditional network interdiction to include layered network formulations; and develops models/techniques to design robust layered networks while considering trade-offs with cost. These approaches identify the maximum protection/disruption possible across layered networks with limited resources, find the most robust layered …

Value-Driven Enterprise Architecture Score: Evaluation Applied To Joint Force Protection Future State Design, Larry D. Cotton, Gary A. Haase

Theses and Dissertations

This research presents a methodology to evaluate the quality of a system's architecture using principles drawn from Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) and resulting in a Value-Driven Enterprise Architecture Score (VDEA-Score). This is an overall numerical architecture quality score useful to a system's management team to identify the advantages and disadvantages of a system design and associated architecture documentation or to track its quality across discrete evaluation epochs. This effort determined which aspects of the architecture are most valuable to the stakeholder in the areas of (1) the system effectiveness values (quality of the instantiated system being represented and its ability to …

Modeling Systems For Optimal Resource Allocation, Scheduling, And Decision Making, Esengul Tayfur

All Dissertations

This dissertation focuses on the resource requirements and scheduling problem for logistic systems. We investigate solutions to this problem in two different logistic systems: logistic system of the health care facilities during emergency evacuations and delivery and distribution system of production industries. All hospitals must have an evacuation plan to ensure the safety of patients and prevent the loss of life. However, hospital operators have not been able to quantify how resource availability, the cost of acquiring those resources, and evacuation completion time are related. This research addresses this problem and contributes two methodologies to solve this problem. In the …

Developing A Decision Model For Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization (Jieddo) Proposal Selection, Lyle M. Dawley, Lenore A. Marentee, Alice Marie Long

Theses and Dissertations

This research uses decision analysis to develop a structured, repeatable and most importantly defensible decision model for the evaluation of proposed IED defeat solutions submitted to the Joint IED Defeat Organization (JIEDDO). Additive value models using Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) are examined as possible methodologies. VFT is determined to be the "best fit" for JIEDDO's decision situation in which proposals are submitted continuously and must be scored independently of previous proposals. VFT is first used to determine desirable qualities in IED defeat options, and then to generate a hierarchal value model to evaluate these qualities …

Robust Sensitivity Analysis Of Courses Of Action Using An Additive Value Model, Hunter A. Marks

Theses and Dissertations

The Department of Defense (DoD) requires the ability to quantifiably measure progress in arenas that are complex and difficult to measure, such as the stability of a region. Therefore, the DoD works diligently to predict the effect of operations and sponsors research to improve prediction and analysis. They desire a repeatable, systematic methodology to aid in the selection of courses of action (COA) that efficiently meet stated objectives and quantitatively measure the degree of accomplishment of these objectives. The author proposes a value-focused thinking (VFT) decision analysis (DA) approach to this problem. This methodology not only aids in selection of …

A Decision Tool To Evaluate Budgeting Methodologies For Estimating Facility Recapitalization Requirements, Krista M. Hickman

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to develop a decision tool to assist in the evaluation of facility recapitalization budget estimation models to determine which model was best suited for a particular organization. Specifically, this thesis sought to answer an overarching research question addressing the importance of recapitalization and the best method to estimate the facility recapitalization budget using the Department of Defense (DoD) as the subject of the research. A comprehensive literature review revealed ten existing recapitalization model alternatives to consider for implementation. The methodology used to develop a decision tool was based on the Value Focused Thinking (VFT) …

Radical Impact Of Change In Actions And Confidence Index On Reverse Decision Making An Application Based Study, Swatee Trimbak Paithankar

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

While making decisions under uncertainty, people are often unaware of the logical approach to form the decision process. It is assumed that collecting details, analyzing and evaluating data is enough to make 'proper' decisions. However, past research in the decision making arena has significantly validated that there exists a class of decision problems which is complex, ill-structured and not defined to the level where decision makers can draw logical conclusions based on existing traditional decision approaches. RDM (reverse decision making), one of the novel approaches of decision making under conditions of uncertainty, has shown potential towards addressing some of these …

Selecting Electricity Generation Sources In Remote Locations, Kelly E. Kwan

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to investigate the impact of using a decision analysis technique for the selection of an electrical generation system for remote locations. Specifically, this thesis sought to answer five research questions addressing the types of energy sources used in remote locations, the decision-making processes used to identify these sources, the types of constraints incorporated in such a process, other valued factors, and their level of importance in relation to each other. The research questions were answered through a comprehensive literature review and the 10-Step Value-Focused Thinking Process on a specific case study in the National …

Reverse Decision Making And Goal Attainment A Proof Of Concept As A New Approach To The Decision Making Process Under Uncertainty, Shitalkumar S. Sabne

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Decision making occurs when one must choose among alternatives. However, in uncertain environments where problems are complex and decision makers lack complete knowledge of the situation as well as decision alternatives, it's not possible for them to select an optimal decision outcome by 'Traditional Decision Approaches'. At present Reverse Decision Making is the central, although new and unproved, approach of Old Dominion University's Engineering Management and Systems Engineering research on decision making process for uncertain and complex situations. Even though research in decision making spans over one hundred years, there are still important problems which remain to be addressed.

There …

Strategic Airlift En Route Analysis To Support The Global War On Terrorism Using A Value Focused Thinking Approach, Marykathryn W. Tharaldson

Theses and Dissertations

The Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) has yielded new challenges to the United States' strategic airlift infrastructure. The network of en-route airfields that serve as refueling and maintenance stops were designed primarily to service relatively static Cold War requirements. However, the GWOT has resulted in the need for an infrastructure that is responsive to a highly dynamic environment. This research uses a "value focused" methodology to identify en-route airfield locations that simultaneously maximize cargo throughput capability while possessing a high degree of adaptability to volatile cargo delivery requirements.

Assessing The Usefulness Of The Decision Framework For Identifying And Selecting Knowledge Management Projects, Kevin G. Budai

Theses and Dissertations

Knowledge management (KM) is becoming recognized as a valuable tool for the Department of Defense (DoD) in its effort to maintain a competitive, strategic advantage against its enemies in a new threat environment. Decision superiority is the ultimate end result and is only possible through the effective and efficient use of its chief key resource--knowledge. As the Air Force seeks to transform the way it does business the concept of knowledge management has made its way to the forefront of both the Air Force's Information Strategy and Information Resource Flight Plan. This research assesses the usefulness of a knowledge management …

A Value Focused Thinking Model For The Development And Selection Of Electrical Energy Source Alternatives At Military Installations, Gregory T. Schanding

Theses and Dissertations

Electrical power on military installations is vital for mission accomplishment. Most installations obtain electrical power from a local commercial utility. Although commercial power service has a very low interruption rate, the threat of a sustained power outage resulting from a terrorist act or a natural disaster is of concern. The military should posture itself to prevent such power outages and prepare to mitigate the adverse effects associated with the loss of power. This thesis presents a Value Focused Thinking approach to the development of a decision analysis model to assist a decision maker at a military installation in the generation …

Investigating The Optimal Management Strategy For A Healthcare Facility Maintenance Program, Daria J. Gaillard

Theses and Dissertations

Reacting to the need to transform and the increasing pressure to outsource all non-core activities, Air Force Material Command Surgeon General discontinued its previous use of full service contracts with original equipment manufacturers and adopted a relatively new maintenance outsourcing strategy: strategic partnering with an equipment management firm. The objective of this study is to create a decision-model for selecting the optimal management strategy for a healthcare organization's facility maintenance program. This study used personal interviews with facility management personnel from MAJCOMs to collect and analyze data. This study offers a re-conceptualized framework for viewing and understanding the various maintenance …

Keys To Successful Implementation And Sustainment Of Managed Maintenance For Healthcare Facilities, Elizabeth A. Waggoner

Theses and Dissertations

Health care providers are faced with two critical issues in today's evolving marketplace: lowering operational costs and achieving more efficient, cost-effective methods to deliver high quality patient care. The rising costs of healthcare and decreasing budgets have placed additional strain on the United States Air Force Medical Service to aggressively lower its facilities' costs. With fewer funds and less personnel, the Air Force medical service is re-evaluating its current maintenance outsourcing implementation practices and reexamining how these strategies might be implemented and sustained more successfully. This research offers some of the foundational needs for designing, implementing and sustaining any type …

Decision Analysis With Value Focused Thinking As A Methodology To Assess Air Force Officer Retention Alternatives, Sang-Ho Moon

Theses and Dissertations

Many countries realize the importance of the retention of qualified military personnel, and have tried to solve this problem using various methods. Nevertheless, the effects of those methods have not been determined or proven yet. The military retention problem is closely related to each individual's separation decision from the military. The characteristics of this decision are multi-objective and highly subjective. Accordingly, the effectiveness of various methods is heavily dependant on the value set of each individual. Decision Analysis (DA) using Value Focused Thinking (VFT) can be an excellent process to deal with this decision. Also, the data can reflect the …

Using Value-Focused Thinking To Evaluate The Effectiveness Of Air Force Utility Privatization, Carlos Braziel

Theses and Dissertations

The majority of the Air Force s stateside utility systems are old, obsolete, and unreliable. The cost to upgrade and repair these systems is currently estimated at over $4 billion. In response, the Air Force began efforts to convey ownership of these utility systems to the private sector through privatization efforts. However, privatization critics believe that newly privatized entities of government will cost the public more money and provide a lower level of service. Therefore, independent audits are a necessity to ensure government initiatives, meet their intended goals. However, the Air Force currently lacks an effective auditing tool to ensure …