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Theses/Dissertations

Air Force Institute of Technology

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Articles 1 - 30 of 838

Full-Text Articles in Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering

Cooperative Wide Area Search Algorithm Analysis Using Sub-Region Techniques, Shawn Whitney Dec 2022

Cooperative Wide Area Search Algorithm Analysis Using Sub-Region Techniques, Shawn Whitney

Theses and Dissertations

Recent advances in small Unmmaned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) technology reinvigorates the need for additional research into Wide Area Search (WAS) algorithms for civilian and military applications. But due to the extremely large variability in UAV environments and design, Digital Engineering (DE) is utilized to reduce the time, cost, and energy required to advance this technology. DE also allows rapid design and evaluation of autonomous systems which utilize and support WAS algorithms. Modern WAS algorithms can be broadly classified into decision-based algorithms, statistical algorithms, and Artificial Intelligence (AI)/Machine Learning (ML) algorithms. This research continues on the work by Hatzinger and Gertsman …

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Optimal Scheduling Of Aircraft Test And Evaluation Fleets To Balance Availability For Testing And Training, Sarah E. Hoops Dec 2022

Optimal Scheduling Of Aircraft Test And Evaluation Fleets To Balance Availability For Testing And Training, Sarah E. Hoops

Theses and Dissertations

The 96th Test Wing at Eglin Air Force Base manually schedules a fleet of approximately 26 aircraft to conduct a range of missions over a one-to-two year planning period. This study automates the scheduling process, does so in a manner that optimizes multiple planning goals related to aircraft availability for training, and provides the 96th Test Wing with a software tool for the implementation that can be used by operational analysts within the command. We formulate the scheduling problem as a multiobjective, nonlinear, binary integer math program that seeks to maximize both the lowest percent of time any aircraft is …

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Project Selection In Facility And Infrastructure Maintenance Organizations, Bayram M. Kurbanov Dec 2022

Project Selection In Facility And Infrastructure Maintenance Organizations, Bayram M. Kurbanov

Theses and Dissertations

The current Air Force Civil Engineer Center (AFCEC) built infrastructure Facility Sustainment Restoration and Modernization (FSRM) portfolio management methodology results in an unbalanced project portfolio. The consequence of this unbalance is that majority of the funding goes towards buildings on the flightline and Facility Support Services activities do not get adequate funding which leads to further deterioration of those facilities. This research investigates whether decision support framework based on Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) process yields better project selection outcomes for facility and infrastructure maintenance organizations. To accomplish that, the investigation focuses on understanding current AFCEC decision support methodology, building an alternative …

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Evaluating Performance Competencies In The Royal Saudi Air Force Engineering Directorate And Squadrons, Faisal A. Al Dawood Sep 2022

Evaluating Performance Competencies In The Royal Saudi Air Force Engineering Directorate And Squadrons, Faisal A. Al Dawood

Theses and Dissertations

The effectiveness of tasks performed by the directorate of aeronautical engineering and squadrons in RSAF directly impacts flight safety, which in turn influences the organization either positively or negatively. Therefore, improving engineers' competencies will improve the overall performance of the organization. The study refined and reconstructed a model, namely a T-shape competency model, to assess the engineers' competencies which revealed some management and competency-related deficiencies and concluded with managerial recommendations.

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A Methodological Framework For Parametric Combat Analysis, Dustin L. Hayhurst Sr. Sep 2022

A Methodological Framework For Parametric Combat Analysis, Dustin L. Hayhurst Sr.

Theses and Dissertations

This work presents a taxonomic structure for understanding the tension between certain factors of stability for game-theoretic outcomes such as Nash optimality, Pareto optimality, and balance optimality and then applies such game-theoretic concepts to the advancement of strategic thought on spacepower. This work successfully adapts and applies combat modeling theory to the evaluation of cislunar space conflict. This work provides evidence that the reliability characteristics of small spacecraft share similarities to the reliability characteristics of large spacecraft. Using these novel foundational concepts, this dissertation develops and presents a parametric methodological framework capable of analyzing the efficacy of heterogeneous force compositions …

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Value Focused Thinking Analysis Of C-Band Australia Radar Operations, Samuel Ray Grothman Sep 2022

Value Focused Thinking Analysis Of C-Band Australia Radar Operations, Samuel Ray Grothman

Theses and Dissertations

The radars used for Space Domain Awareness (SDA) are inherently all-weather, day/night sensors capable of around the clock operations. Despite this fact, some radars are operated for fewer than their maximum operating capabilities. The decision-making process for selecting the operating hours of a sensor has historically been based on only a few factors or just one. This research uses the techniques in Value Focused Thinking to develop an evaluation process to score possible alternatives and find the alternative with the most value for the decision maker. By investigating the value that is added by operating an SDA radar, it is …

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Retention Prediction And Policy Optimization For United States Air Force Personnel Management, Joseph C. Hoecherl Sep 2022

Retention Prediction And Policy Optimization For United States Air Force Personnel Management, Joseph C. Hoecherl

Theses and Dissertations

Effective personnel management policies in the United States Air Force (USAF) require methods to predict the number of personnel who will remain in the USAF as well as to replenish personnel with different skillsets over time as they depart. To improve retention predictions, we develop and test traditional random forest models and feedforward neural networks as well as partially autoregressive forms of both, outperforming the benchmark on a test dataset by 62.8% and 34.8% for the neural network and the partially autoregressive neural network, respectively. We formulate the workforce replenishment problem as a Markov decision process for active duty enlisted …

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Root-Cause Analysis Of Rsaf Maintenance-Related Flight Safety Mishaps, Heaf H. Alqahtani Sep 2022

Root-Cause Analysis Of Rsaf Maintenance-Related Flight Safety Mishaps, Heaf H. Alqahtani

Theses and Dissertations

Poor maintenance is a major factor in many aviation mishaps. This is due to the fact that some maintenance activities are carried out improperly or overlooked as a result of human error. It is important to acknowledge that maintenance mistakes are a visible sign of deeper organizational issues. Therefore, adequate solutions to maintenance issues must consider organizational influences. Despite efforts to reduce the accident rate within the Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF), the RSAF suffers from an increasing trend in mishaps attributed to maintenance. Therefore, safety data was analyzed to examine trends. Additionally, the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System …

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A Model-Based Approach To Cubesat Propulsion And Payload Analysis, Madeline H. Johnson Jun 2022

A Model-Based Approach To Cubesat Propulsion And Payload Analysis, Madeline H. Johnson

Theses and Dissertations

Currently, there are only limited ways to increase mission success of CubeSats in terms of component and mission compatibility. The Payload Analysis Tool (PAT), developed by Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) students, combines the power of multiple tools to analyze payload compatibility on a single CubeSat bus. The PAT simulates a CubeSat mission with a variety of payloads to better understand how the payloads interact with the bus in terms of power, data rate, and memory, but it lacks a propulsion system. This thesis research advances the PAT by including a propulsion system which allows for increased mission time …

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Reconciliation, Restoration And Reconstruction Of A Conflict Ridden Country, Muhammad S. Riaz Jun 2022

Reconciliation, Restoration And Reconstruction Of A Conflict Ridden Country, Muhammad S. Riaz

Theses and Dissertations

Conflict has sadly been a constant part of history. Winning a conflict and making a lasting peace are often not the same thing. While a peace treaty ends a conflict and often dictates terms from the winners’ perspective, it may not create a lasting peace. Short of unconditional surrender, modern conflict ends with a negotiated cessation of hostilities. Such accords may have some initial reconstruction agreements, but Reconciliation, Restoration and Reconstruction (RRR) is a long term process. This study maintains that to achieve a lasting peace: 1) The culture and beliefs of the conflict nation must be continuously considered and …

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Developing A Model-Based Approach To Forecast A Competitor's System, Christopher A. Del Vecchio May 2022

Developing A Model-Based Approach To Forecast A Competitor's System, Christopher A. Del Vecchio

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research is to develop a model-based approach to intelligence forecasting of a competitor’s system. This analysis currently uses a document-based practice to capture all knowledge of the forecast and its development. A framework of antithesis processes, or Anti-Processes, were derived from the systems engineering technical processes. This was then combined with analytical tradecraft from the field of competitive technical intelligence to build a SysML reference model, which was then applied to a small case study to enhance and refine the model. The Anti-Process framework and SysML reference model provide a rigorous, model-based approach to intelligence forecasts …

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Narrative Analysis Of Open-Source Social Media Activity In The Indopacom Aor, Aaron K. Glenn Mar 2022

Narrative Analysis Of Open-Source Social Media Activity In The Indopacom Aor, Aaron K. Glenn

Theses and Dissertations

Emotion classification can be a powerful tool to derive narratives from social media data. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) can meet or exceed the performance of state-of-the-art traditional machine learning techniques using exclusively open-source data and models. Specifically, these results show that RNN variants can produce more than an 8% gain in accuracy in comparison to Logistic Regression and SVM techniques and a 15% gain over Random Forest when using FastText embeddings. This research found a statistical significance in the performance of a single layer Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) model over a 2-layer stacked Bi-LSTM model. This research also found …

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Optimal Aircraft Maneuvering Models For Cruise Missile Engagement: A Modeling And Computational Study, Izaiah G. Laduke Mar 2022

Optimal Aircraft Maneuvering Models For Cruise Missile Engagement: A Modeling And Computational Study, Izaiah G. Laduke

Theses and Dissertations

Given the increased threat and proliferation of adversary military capabilities, this research seeks to develop reasonably accurate and computationally tractable models to optimally maneuver aircraft to intercept cruise missile attacks. The research leveraged mathematical programming to model the problem, informed by constraints representing a system of (temporal) difference equations. The research began by comparing six models having alternative representations of velocity and acceleration constraints while analyzing situations with stationary targets. The Multiple Aircraft, Multiple Stationary Target Engagement Problem with Box Constraint Bounds (MAMSTEP-BC) Model yielded superior overall performance and was further analyzed through alternative mathematical programming model enhancements to create …

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Airworthiness Decision Factors In The Us Air Force, Derek N. Dennis Mar 2022

Airworthiness Decision Factors In The Us Air Force, Derek N. Dennis

Theses and Dissertations

There are multiple airworthiness (AW) certification paths for aircraft platforms and their modifications. Specifically, military commercial derivative aircraft (MCDA) have a unique opportunity to pursue either FAA certification, military certification or a combination of both. Policy tells MCDA programs to pursue FAA certification to the maximum extent possible, however, the policy lacks clarity regarding where that extent ends. This concept of extent encompasses multiple factors and the choice of an AW basis is a complex decision. Under ideal conditions the decision maker, the program manager, has the experience and insight to support their decision, however, this is not always the …

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Analysis Of The Perspective On Syrian Refugees By Neighboring Countries, Norma Ghanem Mar 2022

Analysis Of The Perspective On Syrian Refugees By Neighboring Countries, Norma Ghanem

Theses and Dissertations

Mass migration destabilizes neighboring states, opening the way for fragile state exploitation by enemies, including those that could undermine U.S. national interests. This study investigates an area of the Levant region, specifically countries neighboring Syria, and analyzes their perspective on Syrian refugees for the time frame of 1 June 2019 - 30 June 2020. This analysis may assist in forming policy and creating strategies to address refugee related issues, both domestic and international. There are three main questions addressed. The first inspects dominant refugee framing, the second explores sentiment (dis)similarity within each country and across countries, and the third investigates …

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Networked Cooperative Autonomous Munitions Digital Twin Modeling Utilizing Model Based Systems Engineering, Christopher R. Reed Mar 2022

Networked Cooperative Autonomous Munitions Digital Twin Modeling Utilizing Model Based Systems Engineering, Christopher R. Reed

Theses and Dissertations

An example of a high-complexity system is a swarm of Networked Cooperative Autonomous Munitions (NCAM) that prioritize wide area search and multiple view target confirmation. First, this research discusses methods toward building behavioral models within a Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) tool. Then, this research presents the parallel modeling effort of NCAM in two environments: the MBSE model in Cameo Systems Modeler, and a physics-based model in the Advanced Framework for Simulation, Integration, and Modeling (AFSIM). Each digital model in its environment provides distinct benefits to the stakeholders of the design process, so the models must present consistent and parallel information. …

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Geometric Generation Through The Merging Of Sysml, And Engineering Sketch Pad, Alexander J. Miesle Mar 2022

Geometric Generation Through The Merging Of Sysml, And Engineering Sketch Pad, Alexander J. Miesle

Theses and Dissertations

The United Stated Department of Defense (DoD) and Air Force (USAF) have placed increased emphasis on the utilization of modern systems engineering (SE) practices within the current and future acquisitions lifecycle. This call is driven by the current rate at which near-peer adversaries such as Russia and China are increasing their defense system capabilities and catching up or surpassing the Unites States in certain operational regions. To aid in the transition to a Digital Engineering and Digital Twin dominated acquisitions process, this thesis presents a method with which SysML and geometric tools can be linked within both new and existing …

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Identifying Characteristics For Success Of Robotic Process Automations, Charles M. Unkrich Mar 2022

Identifying Characteristics For Success Of Robotic Process Automations, Charles M. Unkrich

Theses and Dissertations

In the pursuit of digital transformation, the Air Force creates digital airmen. Digital airmen are robotic process automations designed to eliminate the repetitive high-volume low-cognitive tasks that absorb so much of our Airmen's time. The automation product results in more time to focus on tasks that machines cannot sufficiently perform data analytics and improving the Air Force's informed decision-making. This research investigates the assessment of potential automation cases to ensure that we choose viable tasks for automation and applies multivariate analysis to determine which factors indicate successful projects. The data is insufficient to provide significant insights.

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Predicting Tf33-Pw-100a Engine Failures Due To Oil Issues Using Survival Analyses, Anna M. Davis Mar 2022

Predicting Tf33-Pw-100a Engine Failures Due To Oil Issues Using Survival Analyses, Anna M. Davis

Theses and Dissertations

In 2007, the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Sustainment pushed for the need to transition to a Condition Based Maintenance Plus (CBM ) initiative for weapon systems in the U.S. Department of Defense. The CBM initiative can help increase aircraft availability (AA) for the United States Air Force. There are many reasons where AA can be affected but one such issue is engine availability primarily due to oil issues. Within the CBM perspective, this study examines the risk of a jet engine failure due to an oil issue and attempts to predict an engines time until next …

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An Exploratory Analysis Of Time Series Econometric Data For Retention Forecasting Using Deep Learning, John C. O'Donnell Mar 2022

An Exploratory Analysis Of Time Series Econometric Data For Retention Forecasting Using Deep Learning, John C. O'Donnell

Theses and Dissertations

Officer retention in the Air Force has been researched many times in an attempt to better predict the personnel needs of the Air Force for the future. There has been previous work done in regards to specific AFSCs and how their retention compares to specific yet similar private sector jobs. This study considers different econometric time series statistics as a feature space and an average Air Force officer separation rate as the response variable for the multivariate time series analysis deep learning techniques. The econometric indicators used in this study are New Business Formations, New Durable Good Orders, and the …

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Multiagent Routing Problem With Dynamic Target Arrivals Solved Via Approximate Dynamic Programming, Andrew E. Mogan Mar 2022

Multiagent Routing Problem With Dynamic Target Arrivals Solved Via Approximate Dynamic Programming, Andrew E. Mogan

Theses and Dissertations

This research formulates and solves the multiagent routing problem with dynamic target arrivals (MRP-DTA), a stochastic system wherein a team of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (AUAVs) executes a strike coordination and reconnaissance (SCAR) mission against a notional adversary. Dynamic target arrivals that occur during the mission present the team of AUAVs with a sequential decision-making process which we model via a Markov Decision Process (MDP). To combat the curse of dimensionality, we construct and implement a hybrid approximate dynamic programming (ADP) algorithmic framework that employs a parametric cost function approximation (CFA) which augments a direct lookahead (DLA) model via a …

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Applying Models Of Circadian Stimulus To Explore Ideal Lighting Configurations, Alexander J. Price Mar 2022

Applying Models Of Circadian Stimulus To Explore Ideal Lighting Configurations, Alexander J. Price

Theses and Dissertations

Increased levels of time are spent indoors, decreasing human interaction with nature and degrading photoentrainment, the synchronization of circadian rhythms with daylight variation. Military imagery analysts, among other professionals, are required to work in low light level environments to limit power consumption or increase contrast on display screens to improve detail detection. Insufficient exposure to light in these environments results in inadequate photoentrainment which is associated with degraded alertness and negative health effects. Recent research has shown that both the illuminance (i.e., perceived intensity) and wavelength of light affect photoentrainment. Simultaneously, modern lighting technologies have improved our ability to construct …

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The Cyber Wargame Commodity Course Of Action Automated Analysis Method, Alex Hoffendahl Mar 2022

The Cyber Wargame Commodity Course Of Action Automated Analysis Method, Alex Hoffendahl

Theses and Dissertations

In the modern operational landscape, strategic decisions are made and executed, under uncertain conditions, with many potential constraints and limited information. The end goal of these decisions is to minimize and mitigate the effect of adversarial threats, which may or may not act in line with previous assumptions. Wargaming is a powerful tool that allows for the practical implementation of theoretical knowledge into real-world scenarios, enhancing decision-makers critical thinking and problem solving skills. Furthermore, including cyber-effects in a wargame leads to a broader decision scope for an entire operation. This research aims to enhance the analytical capabilities and overall usability …

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Development And Assessment Of A Model-Based Framework On User Toolkits, Brandon J. Koury Mar 2022

Development And Assessment Of A Model-Based Framework On User Toolkits, Brandon J. Koury

Theses and Dissertations

The Department of Defense (DoD) has a limited number of resources to accomplish a variety of missions which involve deploying personnel to support and maintain aircraft operating throughout the world. The DoDs maintenance structure codes maintainers to perform maintenance on specific airframes. This structure limits the flexibility of maintainers and leads to deploying resources in a reactionary manner to address capability gaps in deployed environments. The Just-In-Time Multi-Mission Airman (JIT MMA) concept aims to resolve these issues. Currently, the necessary technologies are unknown, but user toolkits are a concept to consider. A user toolkit is a concept that allows users …

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A Decision Support Simulation To Analyze Scheduling Alternatives For Applicant Processing At Military Entrance Processing Stations (Meps), Jonathan M. Escamilla Mar 2022

A Decision Support Simulation To Analyze Scheduling Alternatives For Applicant Processing At Military Entrance Processing Stations (Meps), Jonathan M. Escamilla

Theses and Dissertations

Applicant processing at Military Entrance Processing Stations (MEPS) is conducted via a batch arrival process by which all applicants arrive at the beginning of the processing day. Pursuit of alternate processing scenarios has never progressed beyond the pilot stage, possibly because the Command lacks a general decision support model to evaluate the impacts of proposed policies on applicant processing operations. This research creates a discrete event simulation of MEPS applicant processing operations and applies the model to three alternative applicant processing scenarios: split-shift, appointment- based, and express-lane. Results are examined and compared to benchmarks using multiple performance measurements.

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Qualitative Insights On The Military Entrance Processing Station (Meps) Of Excellence Program, Brian T. Johnson Mar 2022

Qualitative Insights On The Military Entrance Processing Station (Meps) Of Excellence Program, Brian T. Johnson

Theses and Dissertations

The Military Entrance Processing Station (MEPS) of Excellence Program (MOE) is a program to improve operations through recognition and motivation and to sustain excellence in MEPSs core services. Quantitative MOE program data was studied using a hybrid approach of descriptive statistics, statistical process control, and logistic regression to gain relevant insights with respect to the program objectives of improvement, excellence, motivation, and recognition. Future work should employ information such as climate surveys, worker performance reports, and the civilian awards program for further insights into the MOEs effectiveness as a motivator.

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Comparison Of Lightning Warning Radii Distributions, Michael M. Maestas Mar 2022

Comparison Of Lightning Warning Radii Distributions, Michael M. Maestas

Theses and Dissertations

Previous research investigating lightning warning radii about the Cape Canaveral space launch facilities have focused on reducing these radii from either 5 nautical miles (NM) to 4 NM or from 6 NM to 5 NM depending on the structures being protected. Some of these findings have suggested the possibility of both a seasonal difference (warm versus cold) and lightning detection events (cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) or total lightning (TL)) impacting these radii and associated risk levels. Utilizing the 2017-2020 data provided by the 45th Weather Squadron at Patrick Space Force Base via the Mesoscale Eastern Range Lightning Information System (MERLIN), this …

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A Decision Analysis Framework To Consider Space Congestion In Orbit Selection, Anthony J. Correale Mar 2022

A Decision Analysis Framework To Consider Space Congestion In Orbit Selection, Anthony J. Correale

Theses and Dissertations

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is becoming more congested, which increases the risk to space missions. Decision makers will need to consider this increase in congestion as an increased risk within their mission engineering process. This thesis proposes a methodology to create and implement a value structure that quantitatively scores a range of orbits based on congestion factors of each orbit and how well each orbit meets mission requirements. This thesis demonstrates this methodology on a set of circular LEO orbits defined by altitude and inclination, and scores this illustrative scenario based on notional mission measures and expected number of encounters …

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Air Force Specialty Code Assignment Optimization, Rebecca L. Reynolds Mar 2022

Air Force Specialty Code Assignment Optimization, Rebecca L. Reynolds

Theses and Dissertations

Each year, the Air Force Personnel Center determines which career field newly commissioned officers will serve under during their time in the Air Force. The career fields are assigned while considering five priorities, dictated by Headquarters Air Force, Manpower and Personnel: target number of cadets, education requirements, average cadet percentile, cadet source of commissioning, and cadet preference. A mixed-integer linear program with elasticized constraints is developed to generate cadet assignments according to these priorities. Each elasticized constraint carries an associated reward and penalty, which is used to dictate the importance of the constraint within the model. A subsequent analysis is …

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Analysis Of Generalized Artificial Intelligence Potential Through Reinforcement And Deep Reinforcement Learning Approaches, Jonathan Turner Mar 2022

Analysis Of Generalized Artificial Intelligence Potential Through Reinforcement And Deep Reinforcement Learning Approaches, Jonathan Turner

Theses and Dissertations

Artificial Intelligence is the next competitive domain; the first nation to develop human level artificial intelligence will have an impact similar to the development of the atomic bomb. To maintain the security of the United States and her people, the Department of Defense has funded research into the development of artificial intelligence and its applications. This research uses reinforcement learning and deep reinforcement learning methods as proxies for current and future artificial intelligence agents and to assess potential issues in development. Agent performance were compared across two games and one excursion: Cargo Loading, Tower of Hanoi, and Knapsack Problem, respectively. …

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