Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

Computational Decision Support For Socio-Technical Awareness Of Land-Use Planning Under Complexity—A Dam Resilience Planning Case Study, Andreas Tolk, Jennifer A. Richkus, F. Leron Shults, Wesley J. Wildman

VMASC Publications

Land-use planning for modern societies requires technical competence as well as social competence. We therefore propose an integrative solution enabling better land-use planning and management through better-informed decision-making. We adapt a method developed for cross-disciplinary team building to identify the stakeholders and their various objectives and value systems. We use these results to populate artificial societies embedded into a dynamic data analytics framework as a tool to identify, explore, and visualize the challenges resulting from the different objectives and value systems in land-use planning and management. To prove the feasibility of the proposed solution, we present two use cases from …

Simulation-Based Optimization: Implications Of Complex Adaptive Systems And Deep Uncertainty, Andreas Tolk

VMASC Publications

Within the modeling and simulation community, simulation-based optimization has often been successfully used to improve productivity and business processes. However, the increased importance of using simulation to better understand complex adaptive systems and address operations research questions characterized by deep uncertainty, such as the need for policy support within socio-technical systems, leads to the necessity to revisit the way simulation can be applied in this new area. Similar observations can be made for complex adaptive systems that constantly change their behavior, which is reflected in a continually changing solution space. Deep uncertainty describes problems with inadequate or incomplete information about …

Combining Green Metrics And Digital Twins For Sustainability Planning And Governance Of Smart Buildings And Cities, Casey R. Corrado, Suzanne M. Delong, Emily G. Holt, Edward Y. Hua, Andreas Tolk

VMASC Publications

Creating a more sustainable world will require a coordinated effort to address the rise of social, economic, and environmental concerns resulting from the continuous growth of cities. Supporting planners with tools to address them is pivotal, and sustainability is one of the main objectives. Modeling and simulation augmenting digital twins can play an important role to implement these tools. Although various green best practices have been utilized over time and there are related attempts at measuring green success, works in the published literature tend to focus on addressing a single problem (e.g., energy efficiency), and a comprehensive approach that takes …

Human Ergonomic Simulation To Support The Design Of An Exoskeleton For Lashing/De-Lashing Operations Of Containers Cargo, Francesco Longo, Antonio Padovano, Vittorio Solina, Virginia D' Augusta, Stefan Venzl, Roberto Calbi, Michele Bartuni, Ornella Anastasi, Rafael Diaz

VMASC Publications

Lashing and de-lashing operations of containers cargo on board containerships are considered as quite strenuous activities in which operators are required to work continuously over a 6 or 8 hours shift with very limited break. This is mostly because containerships need to leave the port as soon as possible and containers loading and unloading operations must be executed with very high productivity (stay moored in a port is a totally unproductive time for a ship and a loss-making business for a shipping company). Operators performing lashing and de-lashing operations are subjected to intense ergonomic stress and uncomfortable working postures. To …

Fuzzy Cognitive Map-Based Knowledge Representation Of Hazardous Industrial Operations, Francesco Longo, Antonio Padovano, Letizia Nicoletti, Caterina Fusto, Mohaiad Elbasheer, Rafael Diaz

VMASC Publications

Hazardous industrial operations are highly stochastic, still human-dependent, and risky. Operators working in such an environment must understand the complex interrelation between several factors contributing to safe and effective operations. Therefore, being able to predict the effects of their actions on provoking or mitigating possible accidents is crucial. This study aims to utilize fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) to model the expert’s reasoning about occupational health and safety (OHS) in confined space. This knowledge is used by operators to build their mental models. The developed FCM displays all the possible incidents of a confined space and links these incidents with all …

Methods For Weighting Decisions To Assist Modelers And Decision Analysts: A Review Of Ratio Assignment And Approximate Techniques, Barry Ezell, Christopher J. Lynch, Patrick T. Hester

VMASC Publications

Computational models and simulations often involve representations of decision-making processes. Numerous methods exist for representing decision-making at varied resolution levels based on the objectives of the simulation and the desired level of fidelity for validation. Decision making relies on the type of decision and the criteria that is appropriate for making the decision; therefore, decision makers can reach unique decisions that meet their own needs given the same information. Accounting for personalized weighting scales can help to reflect a more realistic state for a modeled system. To this end, this article reviews and summarizes eight multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques …

Human Factors, Ergonomics And Industry 4.0 In The Oil & Gas Industry: A Bibliometric Analysis, Francesco Longo, Antonio Padovano, Lucia Gazzaneo, Jessica Frangella, Rafael Diaz

VMASC Publications

Over the last few years, the Human Factors and Ergonomics (HF/E) discipline has significantly benefited from new human-centric engineered digital solutions of the 4.0 industrial age. Technologies are creating new socio-technical interactions between human and machine that minimize the risk of design-induced human errors and have largely contributed to remarkable improvements in terms of process safety, productivity, quality, and workers’ well-being. However, despite the Oil&Gas (O&G) sector is one of the most hazardous environments where human error can have severe consequences, Industry 4.0 aspects are still scarcely integrated with HF/E. This paper calls for a holistic understanding of the changing …

Developing An Artificial Intelligence Framework To Assess Shipbuilding And Repair Sub-Tier Supply Chains Risk, Rafael Diaz, Katherine Smith, Beatriz Acero, Francesco Longo, Antonio Padovano

VMASC Publications

The defense shipbuilding and repair industry is a labor-intensive sector that can be characterized by low-product volumes and high investments in which a large number of shared resources, technology, suppliers, and processes asynchronously converge into large construction projects. It is mainly organized by the execution of a complex combination of sequential and overlapping stages. While entities engaged in this large-scale endeavor are often knowledgeable about their first-tier suppliers, they usually do not have insight into the lower tiers suppliers. A sizable part of any supply chain disruption is attributable to instabilities in sub-tier suppliers. This research note conceptually delineates a …

Computational Decision Support For The Covid-19 Healthcare Coalition, Andreas Tolk, Christopher Glazner, Joseph Ungerleider

VMASC Publications

In the early months of 2020, the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus took the world by surprise, resulting in the COVID-19 pandemic that has caused significant loss of lives and challenged the sustainability of our health care systems. In mid-March, it became obvious that government and communities had to react immediately. Under the lead of the Mayo Clinic and The MITRE Corporation, the COVID-19 Healthcare Coalition (C19HCC) was established as a coordinated public-interest, private-sector response. The coalition brought healthcare organizations, technology firms, nonprofits, academia, and startups to support supply chains, inform coordinated social policies, and provide data-driven insights to protect people and preserve …

Virginia Digital Shipbuilding Program (Vdsp): Building An Agile Modern Workforce To Improve Performance In The Shipbuilding And Ship Repair Industry, Joseph Peter Kosteczko, Katherine Smith, Jessica Johnson, Rafael Diaz

VMASC Publications

Industry 4.0 is the latest stage in the Industrial Revolution and is reflected in the digital transformation and use of emergent technologies including the Internet of Things, Big Data, Robotic automation of processes, 3D printing and additive manufacturing, drones and Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the manufacturing industry. The implementation of these technologies in the Shipbuilding and Ship Repair Industry is currently in a nascent stage. Considering this, there is huge potential to increase cost savings, decrease production timelines, and drive down inefficiencies in Lifecyle management of ships. However, the implementation of these Industry 4.0 technologies is hindered by a noticeable …

Foundations For A Game Theoretic Framework For Agile Acquisition, Scott Rosen, Kelly Horinek, Alexander Odeh, Les Servi, Andreas Tolk

VMASC Publications

This article investigates the concept of developing a game theoretic framework that is based on the application of buyer and seller utility functions to support the bidding process in government acquisition. The results of a literature survey of utility function approaches, with potential to provide a suitable foundation to a game theory framework for acquisition, are presented. The utility function methods found most promising were further adapted and tested: the Best-Worst method, the Multi-Swing Method, and Functional Dependency for Network Analysis. To test the scalability of the approach, the Best-Worst method is applied to a larger problem to show the …

A Method For Key Performance Indicator Assessment In Manufacturing Organizations, Patrick Hester, Barry Ezell, Andrew Collins, John Horst, Kaleen Lawsure

VMASC Publications

Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are an essential element of an organization’s ability to monitor its strategic health, helping to ensure the strategic goals of the organization are achieved. However, KPI assessment and improvement is often an ad hoc and consultant-driven process rather than one undertaken using scientific principles. This paper outlines the development and subsequent deployment of a method for KPI assessment founded in scholarly literature and balancing practitioner concerns for ease of use. The proposed method draws heavily on organizational stakeholder involvement at varying levels throughout the KPI assessment process, improving current methods by introducing a mathematical foundation based …

A System Dynamics Model For Simulating Ambulatory Health Care Demands, Rafael Diaz, Joshua G. Behr, Mandar Tulpule

VMASC Publications

Introduction: This article demonstrates the utility of the system dynamics approach to model and simulate US demand for ambulatory health care service both for the general population and for specific cohort subpopulations over the 5-year period, from 2003 to 2008. A system dynamics approach that is shown to meaningfully project demand for services has implications for health resource planning and for generating knowledge that is critical to assessing interventions.

Methods: The study uses a cohort-component method in combination with structural modeling to simulate ambulatory health care utilization. Data are drawn from the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey and the National …

Colonel Blotto Games And Lancaster's Equations: A Novel Military Modeling Combination, Andrew Collins, Patrick T. Hester

VMASC Publications

Military strategists face a difficult task when engaged in a battle against an adversarial force. They have to predict both what tactics their opponent will employ and the outcomes of any resultant conflicts in order to make the best decision about their actions. Game theory has been the dominant technique used by analysts to investigate the possible actions that an enemy will employ. Traditional game theory can be augmented by use of Lanchester equations, a set of differential equations used to determine the outcome of a conflict. This paper demonstrates a novel combination of game theory and Lanchester equations using …

Ambulatory Healthcare Utilization In The United States: A System Dynamics Approach, Rafael Diaz, Joshua G. Behr, Mandar Tulpule

VMASC Publications

Ambulatory health care needs within the United States are served by a wide range of hospitals, clinics, and private practices. The Emergency Department (ED) functions as an important point of supply for ambulatory healthcare services. Growth in our aging populations as well as changes stemming from broader healthcare reform are expected to continue trend in congestion and increasing demand for ED services. While congestion is, in part, a manifestation of unmatched demand, the state of the alignment between the demand for, and supply of, emergency department services affects quality of care and profitability. The central focus of this research is …