Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

Effects Of Different Methods Of Aggregation Of Probabilities On The R&D Investment Portfolio For Optimal Emissions Abatement: An Empirical Evaluation, Olaitan P. Olaleye

Masters Theses 1911 - February 2014

This thesis examines two possible orders of combining multiple experts in elicitations with multiple de-composed events: Should experts be combined early or later in the decision process? This thesis is in conjunction with the paper (Baker & Olaleye, 2012) where we show that it is best to combine experts early as later combination leads to a systematic error. We conduct a simulation to more fully flesh out the theoretical model. We also conduct a theoretical analysis aimed at determining how significantly these two methods differ. We find that all results are in accordance with the theory but combining experts later …