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Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons™
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Articles 1 - 4 of 4
Full-Text Articles in Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering
The Relationship Between Perfect And Imperfect Information In A Risk-Sensitive Two-Action Problem, Eric Bickel
The Relationship Between Perfect And Imperfect Information In A Risk-Sensitive Two-Action Problem, Eric Bickel
Eric Bickel
No abstract provided.
Quantifying 3d Land Seismic Reliability And Value, J. Eric Bickel, Richard L. Gibson, Duane A. Mcvay, Stephen Pickering, John Waggoner
Quantifying 3d Land Seismic Reliability And Value, J. Eric Bickel, Richard L. Gibson, Duane A. Mcvay, Stephen Pickering, John Waggoner
Eric Bickel
Seismic data provide essential information for guiding reservoir development. Improvements in data quality hold the promise of improving performance even further, provided that the value of these data exceed their cost. Previous work has demonstrated value-of-information (VoI) methods to quantify the value of seismic data. In these examples, seismic accuracy was obtained via expert assessment instead of being based on geophysical quantities. The modeled seismic information was not representative of any quantity that would be observed in a seismic image. Here we apply a more general VoI model that includes multiple targets, budgetary constraints, and quantitative models relating post-stack seismic …
Modeling Dependence Among Geologic Risks In Sequential Exploration Decisions, J. Eric Bickel, James E. Smith
Modeling Dependence Among Geologic Risks In Sequential Exploration Decisions, J. Eric Bickel, James E. Smith
Eric Bickel
Prospects in a common basin are likely to share geologic features. For example, if hydrocarbons are found at one location, they may be more likely to be found at other nearby locations. When making drilling decisions, we should be able to exploit this dependence and use drilling results from one location to make more informed decisions about other nearby prospects. Moreover, we should consider these informational synergies when evaluating multi-prospect exploration opportunities. In this paper, we describe an approach for modeling the dependence among prospects and determining an optimal drilling strategy that takes this information into account. We demonstrate this …
Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model, J. Eric Bickel, James E. Smith
Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model, J. Eric Bickel, James E. Smith
Eric Bickel
In this paper, we develop a practical and flexible framework for evaluating sequential exploration strategies in the case where the exploration prospects are dependent. Our interest in this problem was motivated by an oil exploration problem, and our approach begins with marginal assessments for each prospect (e.g., what is the probability that the well is wet?) and pairwise assessments of the dependence between prospects (e.g., what is the probability that both wells i and j are wet?). We then use information-theoretic methods to construct a full joint distribution for all outcomes from these marginal and pairwise assessments. This joint distribution …