Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons™
Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Articles 1 - 2 of 2
Full-Text Articles in Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering
Prediction -- The Quintessential Policy Model Validation Test, Wayne Wakeland
Prediction -- The Quintessential Policy Model Validation Test, Wayne Wakeland
Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations
It is essential to objectively test how well policy models predict real world behavior. The method used to support this assertion involves the review of three SD policy models emphasizing the degree to which the model was able to fit the historical outcome data and how well model-predicted outcomes matched real world outcomes as they unfolded. Findings indicate that while historical model agreement is a favorable indication of model validity, the act of making predictions without knowing the actual data, and comparing these predictions to actual data, can reveal model weaknesses that might be overlooked when all of the available …
A System Dynamics Model Of The Pacific Coast Rockfish Fishery, Wayne Wakeland, Olgay Cangur, Guillermo Rueda, Astrid Scholz
A System Dynamics Model Of The Pacific Coast Rockfish Fishery, Wayne Wakeland, Olgay Cangur, Guillermo Rueda, Astrid Scholz
Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations
This paper presents a model of the dynamic behavior of the yellowtail rockfish of the Pacific Coast of the United States. The purpose of the model is to generate endogenously the historical data for fish population, fishing vessels, regulatory parameters, and fish harvest. The model was subjected to a variety of tests to determine its sensitivity to changes in key parameters and initial values, including extreme conditions. Model results indicate that acceptable biological catch and fleet capacity must be adjusted quickly in response to changing conditions, in order to improve fishery sustainability. Additional analysis reinforces the policy of setting the …