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Air Force Institute of Technology

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Articles 181 - 210 of 910

Full-Text Articles in Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering

An Agent Based Model Of Passenger Boarding For Examining Commercial Aircraft Boarding Strategies, Frank W. Ciarallo, Raymond R. Hill, Kerry K. Ward Dec 2019

An Agent Based Model Of Passenger Boarding For Examining Commercial Aircraft Boarding Strategies, Frank W. Ciarallo, Raymond R. Hill, Kerry K. Ward

Faculty Publications

We use an agent-based simulation methodology to study airline passenger boarding using measures that reflect both the customer experience and airline efficiency perspective. This approach supports exploration of models of actual aircraft used in practice and detailed modeling of passenger dynamics. This paper discusses the modeling approach and a set of experiments comparing several boarding strategies from practical settings as well as the literature.

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Evaluating The Resiliency Of Industrial Internet Of Things Process Control Using Protocol Agnostic Attacks, Hector L. Roldan Dec 2019

Evaluating The Resiliency Of Industrial Internet Of Things Process Control Using Protocol Agnostic Attacks, Hector L. Roldan

Theses and Dissertations

Improving and defending our nation's critical infrastructure has been a challenge for quite some time. A malfunctioning or stoppage of any one of these systems could result in hazardous conditions on its supporting populace leading to widespread damage, injury, and even death. The protection of such systems has been mandated by the Office of the President of the United States of America in Presidential Policy Directive Order 21. Current research now focuses on securing and improving the management and efficiency of Industrial Control Systems (ICS). IIoT promises a solution in enhancement of efficiency in ICS. However, the presence of IIoT …

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Uncertainty And Error In Combat Modeling, Simulation, And Analysis, Jason A. Blake Dec 2019

Uncertainty And Error In Combat Modeling, Simulation, And Analysis, Jason A. Blake

Theses and Dissertations

Due to the infrequent and competitive nature of combat, several challenges present themselves when developing a predictive simulation. First, there is limited data with which to validate such analysis tools. Secondly, there are many aspects of combat modeling that are highly uncertain and not knowable. This research develops a comprehensive set of techniques for the treatment of uncertainty and error in combat modeling and simulation analysis. First, Evidence Theory is demonstrated as a framework for representing epistemic uncertainty in combat modeling output. Next, a novel method for sensitivity analysis of uncertainty in Evidence Theory is developed. This sensitivity analysis method …

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Development Of Cislunar Space Logistics Networks For Satellite Constellation Support Using Event-Driven Generalized Multi-Commodity Network Flows, Alexander R. Collins Nov 2019

Development Of Cislunar Space Logistics Networks For Satellite Constellation Support Using Event-Driven Generalized Multi-Commodity Network Flows, Alexander R. Collins

Theses and Dissertations

As space becomes an increasingly congested domain, the risk of damage to satellite constellations is increasing. In response, there is an increasing need for capabilities for unmanned repair, refueling, and reconstitution (R3) of those constellations. Cislunar orbits offer a promising storage and low-cost transfer solution for on-orbit service vehicles and replacement satellites to leverage those capabilities. This research makes use of mixed-integer linear programming-based logistics models to determine the situations in which a cislunar mission architecture would offer a cost-effective alternative to Earth-based R3. The network models presented in this research make use of the latest developments in Event-Driven Generalized …

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Insulation Sensitivity Analysis For An Optimized Fabric Shelter Off-Grid Hybrid Energy System, Jay F. Pearson [*], Torrey J. Wagner, Steven Schuldt Oct 2019

Insulation Sensitivity Analysis For An Optimized Fabric Shelter Off-Grid Hybrid Energy System, Jay F. Pearson [*], Torrey J. Wagner, Steven Schuldt

Faculty Publications

During military and disaster relief operations, connecting to an established electrical grid is rarely an option. In these situations, camps consisting of poorly insulated fabric shelters are predominantly powered by inefficient diesel generators that require frequent fuel resupply. In order to reduce the fuel demand of these generators, camps may utilize photovoltaic-battery systems. This paper presents an innovative cost-performance model capable of optimizing solar array size, battery backup system, and shelter insulation type to minimize the operating cost of powering a single fabric shelter. Model performance was evaluated using one year of insolation, weather and energy requirement data from a …

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Operational Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Inferential, Sequential, And Adversarial Approaches, Andrew J. Keith Aug 2019

Operational Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Inferential, Sequential, And Adversarial Approaches, Andrew J. Keith

Theses and Dissertations

Modern security threats are characterized by a stochastic, dynamic, partially observable, and ambiguous operational environment. This dissertation addresses such complex security threats using operations research techniques for decision making under uncertainty in operations planning, analysis, and assessment. First, this research develops a new method for robust queue inference with partially observable, stochastic arrival and departure times, motivated by cybersecurity and terrorism applications. In the dynamic setting, this work develops a new variant of Markov decision processes and an algorithm for robust information collection in dynamic, partially observable and ambiguous environments, with an application to a cybersecurity detection problem. In the …

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Persuasion, Political Warfare, And Deterrence: Behavioral And Behaviorally Robust Models, William N. Caballero Jun 2019

Persuasion, Political Warfare, And Deterrence: Behavioral And Behaviorally Robust Models, William N. Caballero

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation examines game theory models in the context of persuasion and competition wherein decision-makers are not completely rational by considering two complementary threads of research. The first thread of research pertains to offensive and preemptively defensive behavioral models. Research in this thread makes three notable contributions. First, an offensive modeling framework is created to identify how an entity optimally influences a populace to take a desired course of action. Second, a defensive modeling framework is defined wherein a regulating entity takes action to bound the behavior of multiple adversaries simultaneously attempting to persuade a group of decision-makers. Third, an …

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Search And Rescue Operations Forecasting And Optimization, Zachary T. Hornberger Mar 2019

Search And Rescue Operations Forecasting And Optimization, Zachary T. Hornberger

Theses and Dissertations

United States Coast Guard District 14 is responsible for the execution of eleven statutory missions across the Pacific region. Despite having the largest geographic area of responsibility (AOR), District 14 has command of among the fewest resources to accomplish these missions. When search and rescue (SAR) emergencies occur, these events take immediate priority because the ability to rapidly coordinate available assets can be the difference between saving or losing a life. Using historic records of SAR incidents for District 14, we leverage an approach called the stochastic zonal distribution model to evaluate spatiotemporal trends in emergency rates and response strategies …

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Fracture Toughness And Fatigue Crack Growth Rate Characterization Of Inconel 718 Formed By Laser Powder Bed Fusion, Charles C. Hohnbaum Mar 2019

Fracture Toughness And Fatigue Crack Growth Rate Characterization Of Inconel 718 Formed By Laser Powder Bed Fusion, Charles C. Hohnbaum

Theses and Dissertations

Continuing improvement in the field of AM of metals provides the opportunity for direct fabrication of aerospace parts. AM was once used in large part for rapid prototyping but improvements in technology and increases in the knowledge base of AM materials has provided the opportunity for manufacture of AM parts for operational use. The ability to create low numbers of unique parts without having to invest in expensive tooling provides great economic incentive to utilize this technique. IN718 is the most common high temperature alloy used in the aerospace industry and lends itself readily to formation by LPBF. The superior …

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36% Reduction In Fuel Resupply Using A Hybrid Generator & Battery System For An Austere Location, David J. Chester [*], Torrey J. Wagner, Douglas S. Dudis Mar 2019

36% Reduction In Fuel Resupply Using A Hybrid Generator & Battery System For An Austere Location, David J. Chester [*], Torrey J. Wagner, Douglas S. Dudis

Faculty Publications

The DOD energy policy is to increase energy security resiliency, and mitigate costs in the use and management of energy[1] Forward operating bases (FOBs) are remote, austere base camps that support an operationally defined mission with a limited or no ability to draw from an energy grid and have historically relied on diesel-powered generators for the primary production of energy.[2] Generators are sized to meet a theoretical peak demand, but steady state loads are far below this peak, resulting in under-loaded generators.[3] Under-loaded diesel generators decrease efficiency and increase the need for maintenance, affecting the lifespan of …

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The Nuclear Network: Multiplex Network Analysis For Interconnected Systems, Bethany L. Goldblum, Andrew W. Reddie, Thomas C. Hickey, James E. Bevins, Sarah Laderman, Nathaniel Mahowald, Austin P. Wright, Elie Katzenson, Yara Mubarak Jan 2019

The Nuclear Network: Multiplex Network Analysis For Interconnected Systems, Bethany L. Goldblum, Andrew W. Reddie, Thomas C. Hickey, James E. Bevins, Sarah Laderman, Nathaniel Mahowald, Austin P. Wright, Elie Katzenson, Yara Mubarak

Faculty Publications

States facing the decision to develop a nuclear weapons program do so within a broader context of their relationships with other countries. How these diplomatic, economic, and strategic relationships impact proliferation decisions, however, remains under-specified. Adding to the existing empirical literature that attempts to model state proliferation decisions, this article introduces the first quantitative heterogeneous network analysis of how networks of conflict, alliances, trade, and nuclear cooperation interact to spur or deter nuclear proliferation. Using a multiplex network model, we conceptualize states as nodes linked by different modes of interaction represented on individual network layers. Node strength is used to …

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A Case For Open Mission Systems In Dod Aircraft Avionics, Michael J. Brown, R. David Fass, Jonathan D. Ritschel Jan 2019

A Case For Open Mission Systems In Dod Aircraft Avionics, Michael J. Brown, R. David Fass, Jonathan D. Ritschel

Faculty Publications

The DOD is adopting open mission systems (OMS) as the future in the military aviation environment. OMS proponents promise reduced costs and truncated schedules through increased competition in the marketplace and reduced coding efforts. To the best of our knowledge, no studies have examined the success of these open architectures in the DOD. Therefore, we investigate costs and schedule for a recent DOD avionics OMS demonstration platform in comparison to 13 historically analogous programs.

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A Sustainable Prototype For Renewable Energy: Optimized Prime-Power Generator Solar Array Replacement, Nathan Thomsen, Torrey J. Wagner, Andrew J. Hoisington, Steven J. Schuldt Jan 2019

A Sustainable Prototype For Renewable Energy: Optimized Prime-Power Generator Solar Array Replacement, Nathan Thomsen, Torrey J. Wagner, Andrew J. Hoisington, Steven J. Schuldt

Faculty Publications

Remote locations such as disaster relief camps, isolated arctic communities, and military forward operating bases are disconnected from traditional power grids forcing them to rely on diesel generators with a total installed capacity of 10,000 MW worldwide. The generators require a constant resupply of fuel, resulting in increased operating costs, negative environmental impacts, and challenging fuel logistics. To enhance remote site sustainability, planners can develop stand-alone photovoltaic-battery systems to replace existing prime power generators. This paper presents the development of a novel cost-performance model capable of optimizing solar array and Li-ion battery storage size by generating tradeoffs between minimizing initial …

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Real-Time Heuristics And Metaheuristics For Static And Dynamic Weapon Target Assignments, Alexander G. Kline Dec 2018

Real-Time Heuristics And Metaheuristics For Static And Dynamic Weapon Target Assignments, Alexander G. Kline

Theses and Dissertations

The problem of targeting and engaging individual missiles (targets) with an arsenal of interceptors (weapons) is known as the weapon target assignment problem. This problem has been well-researched since the seminal work in 1958. There are two distinct categories of the weapon target assignment problem: static and dynamic. The static weapon target assignment problem considers a single instance in which a known number of incoming missiles is to be engaged with a finite number of interceptors. By contrast, the dynamic weapon target assignment problem considers either follow on engagement(s) should the first engagement(s) fail, a subsequent salvo of incoming missiles, …

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Operational Squadron Scheduling, Khaled A. Almannaei Sep 2018

Operational Squadron Scheduling, Khaled A. Almannaei

Theses and Dissertations

The 28th Operational Weather Squadron (28th OWS) is responsible for producing and disseminating mission planning and execution weather analyses and forecasts. The squadron must prepare schedules that meet the needs of their mission while dealing with real-world constraints such as time windows, task priorities, and intermittent recurring missions. The 28th OWS's manning consists of active duty, deployed in-place, reserve, civilian and contract personnel. In this research, a scheduling model and algorithm are provided as an approach to crew scheduling for the 28th Operational Weather Squadron. Scheduling in the 28th OWS is complex and can be time consuming. This model will …

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Generating Strong Diversity Of Opinions: Agent Models Of Continuous Opinion Dynamics, Christopher W. Weimer Sep 2018

Generating Strong Diversity Of Opinions: Agent Models Of Continuous Opinion Dynamics, Christopher W. Weimer

Theses and Dissertations

Opinion dynamics is the study of how opinions in a group of individuals change over time. A goal of opinion dynamics modelers has long been to find a social science-based model that generates strong diversity -- smooth, stable, possibly multi-modal distributions of opinions. This research lays the foundations for and develops such a model. First, a taxonomy is developed to precisely describe agent schedules in an opinion dynamics model. The importance of scheduling is shown with applications to generalized forms of two models. Next, the meta-contrast influence field (MIF) model is defined. It is rooted in self-categorization theory and improves …

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Methods To Support The Project Selection Problem With Non-Linear Portfolio Objectives, Time Sensitive Objectives, Time Sensitive Resource Constraints, And Modeling Inadequacies, Neil C. Ranly Sep 2018

Methods To Support The Project Selection Problem With Non-Linear Portfolio Objectives, Time Sensitive Objectives, Time Sensitive Resource Constraints, And Modeling Inadequacies, Neil C. Ranly

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Air Force relies upon information production activities to gain insight regarding uncertainties affecting important system configuration and in-mission task execution decisions. Constrained resources that prevent the fulfillment of every information production request, multiple information requestors holding different temporal-sensitive objectives, non-constant marginal value preferences, and information-product aging factors that affect the value-of-information complicate the management of these activities. This dissertation reviews project selection research related to these issues and presents novel methods to address these complications. Quantitative experimentation results demonstrate these methods’ significance.

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The Military Inventory Routing Problem: Utilizing Heuristics Within A Least Squares Temporal Differences Algorithm To Solve A Multiclass Stochastic Inventory Routing Problem With Vehicle Loss, Ethan L. Salgado Sep 2018

The Military Inventory Routing Problem: Utilizing Heuristics Within A Least Squares Temporal Differences Algorithm To Solve A Multiclass Stochastic Inventory Routing Problem With Vehicle Loss, Ethan L. Salgado

Theses and Dissertations

Military commanders currently resupply forward operating bases (FOBs) from a central location within an area of operations mainly via convoy operations in a way that closely resembles vendor managed inventory practices. Commanders must decide when and how much inventory to distribute throughout their area of operations while minimizing soldier risk. Technology currently exists that makes utilizing unmanned cargo aerial vehicles (CUAVs) for resupply an attractive alternative due to the dangers of utilizing convoy operations. Enemy actions in wartime environments pose a significant risk to a CUAV's ability to safely deliver supplies to a FOB. We develop a Markov decision process …

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Multi-Level Multi-Objective Programming And Optimization For Integrated Air Defense System Disruption, Aaron M. Lessin Sep 2018

Multi-Level Multi-Objective Programming And Optimization For Integrated Air Defense System Disruption, Aaron M. Lessin

Theses and Dissertations

The U.S. military's ability to project military force is being challenged. This research develops and demonstrates the application of three respective sensor location, relocation, and network intrusion models to provide the mathematical basis for the strategic engagement of emerging technologically advanced, highly-mobile, Integrated Air Defense Systems. First, we propose a bilevel mathematical programming model for locating a heterogeneous set of sensors to maximize the minimum exposure of an intruder's penetration path through a defended region. Next, we formulate a multi-objective, bilevel optimization model to relocate surviving sensors to maximize an intruder's minimal expected exposure to traverse a defended border region, …

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Evaluation Criteria For Selecting Nosql Databases In A Single Box Environment, Ryan D. Engle, Brent T. Langhals, Michael R. Grimaila, Douglas D. Hodson Aug 2018

Evaluation Criteria For Selecting Nosql Databases In A Single Box Environment, Ryan D. Engle, Brent T. Langhals, Michael R. Grimaila, Douglas D. Hodson

Faculty Publications

In recent years, NoSQL database systems have become increasingly popular, especially for big data, commercial applications. These systems were designed to overcome the scaling and flexibility limitations plaguing traditional relational database management systems (RDBMSs). Given NoSQL database systems have been typically implemented in large-scale distributed environments serving large numbers of simultaneous users across potentially thousands of geographically separated devices, little consideration has been given to evaluating their value within single-box environments. It is postulated some of the inherent traits of each NoSQL database type may be useful, perhaps even preferable, regardless of scale. Thus, this paper proposes criteria conceived to …

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Likelihood And Cost Impact Of Engineering Change Requirements For Dod Contracts, James C. Ellis, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Shawn M. Valentine, Brandon Lucas, Ian S. Cordell Apr 2018

Likelihood And Cost Impact Of Engineering Change Requirements For Dod Contracts, James C. Ellis, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Shawn M. Valentine, Brandon Lucas, Ian S. Cordell

Faculty Publications

Purpose: There appears to be no empirical-based method in the literature for estimating if an engineering change proposal (ECP) will occur or the dollar amount incurred. This paper aims to present an empirically based approach to address this shortfall.
Design/Methodology/Approach: Using the cost assessment data enterprise database, 533 contracts were randomly selected via a stratified sampling plan to build two regression models: one to predict the likelihood of a contract experiencing an ECP and the other to determine the expected median per cent increase in baseline contract cost if an ECP was likely. Both models adopted a stepwise approach. A …

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Case Study: Cooling Channels For Material Testing Applications Using Laser Powder Bed Fusion, Benjamin M. Doane, Ryan P. O'Hara, K. Liu, Carl R. Hartsfield Apr 2018

Case Study: Cooling Channels For Material Testing Applications Using Laser Powder Bed Fusion, Benjamin M. Doane, Ryan P. O'Hara, K. Liu, Carl R. Hartsfield

Faculty Publications

Additive Manufacturing continues to gain a reputation as a key technology that will have a major impact on all aspects of mechanical engineering. The United States Air Force’s (USAF) Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT), based in Dayton, Ohio, has expanded its AM-focused education and R&D capabilities with the purchase of a Laser Powder Bed Fusion system from Germany’s Concept Laser.

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A System Dynamics Innovation Diffusion Model Applied To Carbon Nanotube Manufacturing, Frances G. Mackinnon Mar 2018

A System Dynamics Innovation Diffusion Model Applied To Carbon Nanotube Manufacturing, Frances G. Mackinnon

Theses and Dissertations

The transition of advanced technologies from their nascent state to viable commercial entities is a critical step in assuring the United States' national technological superiority and support is often required to incubate such technological developments. We propose a spiral development to investigate the possible scenarios, underlying economics, and risk associated with scaling up carbon nanotube (CNT) production to a commercially viable scale. As the first stage of this proposed effort, this study characterizes the potential scenarios by which a CNT manufacturing company can generate positive annual net revenue and potentially be considered a competitive manufacturer of CNT products on an …

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An Analysis Of Major Acquisition Reforms Through Text Mining And Grounded Theory Design, Amanda L. Mcgowin Mar 2018

An Analysis Of Major Acquisition Reforms Through Text Mining And Grounded Theory Design, Amanda L. Mcgowin

Theses and Dissertations

Cost growth is an established phenomenon within Defense Acquisition that the US Government has attempted to abolish for decades through seemingly endless cycles of reform. Dozens of experts and senior leaders within the acquisition community have published their notions on the reasons for cost growth, nevertheless, legislation has yet to eradicate this presumed conundrum. For this reason, this research is aimed at identifying existing trends within past major Defense Acquisition Reform legislation, as well as in a compendium of views from leaders within the Defense Acquisition community on the efficacy of acquisition reform, to determine the possible disconnect. To accomplish …

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A Study Of The Air Force Airworthiness Assessment Process With Recommendations For Reusable Launch Vehicles, Austin A. Troya Mar 2018

A Study Of The Air Force Airworthiness Assessment Process With Recommendations For Reusable Launch Vehicles, Austin A. Troya

Theses and Dissertations

Flight safety is a critical design and engineering consideration within the United States Department of Defense (DoD) and particularly the United States Air Force (USAF). This study conducts an independent evaluation of the airworthiness assessment process used by the United States Air Force’s Engineering Directorate through modeling and simulation. The airworthiness process is examined for its ability to effectively verify sound engineering design and efficiency with respect to the implementation of new software-based assessment tools and its impact on timeliness of reviews and resource utilization. Simulation results guide recommendations for reducing non-value-added activities and strategic leveling of resource demands to …

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An Open Source Approach To Social Media Data Gathering, Anthony J. Kallhoff Mar 2018

An Open Source Approach To Social Media Data Gathering, Anthony J. Kallhoff

Theses and Dissertations

Modern usage of social media affords the military intelligence and analytic communities novel approaches to gather information. However, the tools and resources to develop these methodologies are still maturing. Furthermore, current data acquisition tools are not available to the DoD for all social media platforms. This thesis addresses a small subset of this problem by developing an open source methodological approach to collect and manage data from a popular social media site that has previously been inaccessible to defense intelligence organizations. This approach was operationalized via the R package called instaExtract, and an exemplar analysis was performed to demonstrate its …

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Experimental Designs, Meta-Modeling, And Meta-Learning For Mixed-Factor Systems With Large Decision Spaces, Zachary C. Little Mar 2018

Experimental Designs, Meta-Modeling, And Meta-Learning For Mixed-Factor Systems With Large Decision Spaces, Zachary C. Little

Theses and Dissertations

Many Air Force studies require a design and analysis process that can accommodate for the computational challenges associated with complex systems, simulations, and real-world decisions. For systems with large decision spaces and a mixture of continuous, discrete, and categorical factors, nearly orthogonal-and-balanced (NOAB) designs can be used as efficient, representative subsets of all possible design points for system evaluation, where meta-models are then fitted to act as surrogates to system outputs. The mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulations used to construct first-order NOAB designs are extended to solve for low correlation between second-order model terms (i.e., two-way interactions and quadratics). The …

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The Developmental Test Scheduling Problem, Joseph E. Schoenbeck Mar 2018

The Developmental Test Scheduling Problem, Joseph E. Schoenbeck

Theses and Dissertations

Developmental testing of aircraft systems in the United States Air Force requires a complex set of resources for each test. The optimal scheduling of those resources is the job of the 412th Test Wing at Edwards Air Force Base. With more than 20 different Combined Task Forces requesting resources for roughly 300 flying missions each week, manual scheduling is a difficult task. The current process takes a team of schedulers several days to get a workable result from which they can start tailoring the final schedule. While concepts and techniques can be taken from industry scheduling problems, the body of …

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Wavelet Anova Bisection Method For Identifying Simulation Model Bias, Andrew D. Atkinson, Raymond R. Hill, Joseph J. Pignatiello Jr., G. Geoffrey Vining, Edward D. White, Eric Chicken Jan 2018

Wavelet Anova Bisection Method For Identifying Simulation Model Bias, Andrew D. Atkinson, Raymond R. Hill, Joseph J. Pignatiello Jr., G. Geoffrey Vining, Edward D. White, Eric Chicken

Faculty Publications

High-resolution computer models can simulate complex systems and processes in order to evaluate a solution quickly and inexpensively. Many simulation models produce dynamic functional output, such as a set of time-series data generated during a process. These computer models require verification and validation (V&V) to assess the correctness of these simulations. In particular, the model validation effort evaluates if the model is an appropriate representation of the real-world system that it is meant to simulate. However, when assessing a model capable of generating functional output, it is useful to learn more than simply whether the model is valid or invalid. …

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Evaluating Process Improvement Courses Of Action Through Modeling And Simulation, Joseph R. Owens Sep 2017

Evaluating Process Improvement Courses Of Action Through Modeling And Simulation, Joseph R. Owens

Theses and Dissertations

Quantifying an expected improvement when considering moderate-complexity changes to a process is time consuming and has potential to overlook stochastic effects. By modeling a process as a Numerical Design Structure Matrix (NDSM), simulating the proposed changes, and evaluating performance, quantification can be rapidly accomplished to understand stochastic effects. This thesis explores a method to evaluate complex process changes within Six Sigma DMAIC process improvement to identify the most desirable outcome amongst several improvement options. A tool to perform the modeling and evaluation is developed. This process evaluation tool is verified for functionality, then is demonstrated against generic processes, a case …

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