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Articles 1 - 11 of 11
Full-Text Articles in Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering
Predicting F-16 Cause Code H Micap Hours Using Jmp Regression Analysis, Scott E. Carr
Predicting F-16 Cause Code H Micap Hours Using Jmp Regression Analysis, Scott E. Carr
Theses and Dissertations
Emergency demands for aircraft parts, MICAPs (Mission Impaired Capability Awaiting Parts) are one of the leading issues affecting mission capability supply rates for fighter aircraft. Cause code H MICAPS, those with a known demand level, but no supply available, are particularly troublesome and difficult to resolve. These MICAPS are due to failures by the supply chain to replenish stock levels within acceptable time limits. Numerous studies have identified a clear need for proactive measures to reduce MICAP hours. This would significantly improve aircraft availability. This study uses regression analysis implemented in JMP software to build models with a goal of …
Cost Estimating Using A New Learning Curve Theory For Non-Constant Production Rates, Dakotah Hogan, John J. Elshaw, Clay M. Koschnick, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Adedeji B. Badiru, Shawn M. Valentine
Cost Estimating Using A New Learning Curve Theory For Non-Constant Production Rates, Dakotah Hogan, John J. Elshaw, Clay M. Koschnick, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Adedeji B. Badiru, Shawn M. Valentine
Faculty Publications
Traditional learning curve theory assumes a constant learning rate regardless of the number of units produced. However, a collection of theoretical and empirical evidence indicates that learning rates decrease as more units are produced in some cases. These diminishing learning rates cause traditional learning curves to underestimate required resources, potentially resulting in cost overruns. A diminishing learning rate model, namely Boone’s learning curve, was recently developed to model this phenomenon. This research confirms that Boone’s learning curve systematically reduced error in modeling observed learning curves using production data from 169 Department of Defense end-items. However, high amounts of variability in …
Database Analysis To Improve U.S. Transportation Command Forecasting Processes, Maxwell C. Thompson
Database Analysis To Improve U.S. Transportation Command Forecasting Processes, Maxwell C. Thompson
Theses and Dissertations
The United States Transportation Command (USTRANSCOM) facilitates air, land, and sea transportation for the DOD. On a periodic basis, a myriad of different agencies within USTRANSCOM project future workload to facilitate resource planning, budgeting, and reimbursable rate identification. Within USTRANSCOM, there are a variety of databases and metrics utilized for workload forecasts; neither a standard nor a preferred technique is prescribed. Currently, USTRANSCOM faces challenges in producing accurate workload forecasts [1]. These challenges can lead to unreliable budget requests and, ultimately, hinder the effectiveness and efficiency of USTRANSCOM [1]. For the purpose of routine aircraft movements of cargo and personnel, …
Analysis And Forecasting Of The 360th Air Force Recruiting Group Goal Distribution, Tyler Spangler
Analysis And Forecasting Of The 360th Air Force Recruiting Group Goal Distribution, Tyler Spangler
Theses and Dissertations
This research utilizes monthly data from 2012-2017 to determine economic or demographic factors that significantly contribute to increased goaling and production potential in areas of the 360th Recruiting Groups. Using regression analysis, a model of recruiting goals and production is built to identify squadrons within the 360 RCGs zone that are capable of producing more or fewer recruits and the factors that contribute to this increased or decreased capability. This research identifies that a zones high school graduation rate, the number of recruiters, and the number of JROTC detachments in a zone are positively correlated with recruiting goals and that …
An Examination Of Economic Metrics As Indicators Of Air Force Retention, Helen L. Jantscher
An Examination Of Economic Metrics As Indicators Of Air Force Retention, Helen L. Jantscher
Theses and Dissertations
Fluctuations in the economy can cause military recruitment and retention plans to go awry. By focusing on various economic metrics, it is possible to anticipate changes in retention rates for specific Air Force Specialty Codes (AFSCs). To address the challenge of maintaining a robust and mission capable Air Force, a correlation analysis is employed to determine the relationship between certain economic indicators and AFSC retention rates. As one might suspect, retention rates follow the trend of decreasing when the economy is strong. Of interest, we found two AFSCs which go against this trend. Namely, the retention rates for officers in …
Optimizing Forecasting Methods For Ustranscom Railcar Demands, James M. Park
Optimizing Forecasting Methods For Ustranscom Railcar Demands, James M. Park
Theses and Dissertations
The United States military heavily relies on rail freight operations to meet many of its logistical needs during both peacetime and wartime efforts. As the head organization responsible for managing and overseeing all modes of military transportation, United States Transportation Command depends on timely accurate railcar demand forecasts to drive critical decisions on distribution and placement of railcar assets. However, the intermittent nature of railcar demands based on location and commodity make it a challenging task for forecasters. Furthermore, these “lumpy” demands often come without any obvious trends or seasonality. This study explores the utility of both traditional forecasting methods …
A Model Of Ambient Noise Caused By Wind Flow, Jovan Popovich
A Model Of Ambient Noise Caused By Wind Flow, Jovan Popovich
Theses and Dissertations
The generation of noise caused by wind owing past a human ear is an important yet vastly understudied factor in determining the ambient noise of an environment experienced by a human observer. Sound level measurements were obtained from wind tunnel tests simulating a human experiencing wind ows at various speeds and from various directions. This data set was used in this thesis. This thesis presents a collection of models for predicting wind noise levels across a broad spectrum of frequencies based on wind speed and angle inputs. Graphical approaches are included to characterize the observed data and illustrate the models' …
A Predictive Logistic Regression Model Of World Conflict Using Open Source Data, Benjamin C. Boekestein
A Predictive Logistic Regression Model Of World Conflict Using Open Source Data, Benjamin C. Boekestein
Theses and Dissertations
Nations transitioning into conflict is an issue of national interest. This study considers various data for inclusion in a statistical model that predicts the future state of the world where nations will either be in a state of violent conflict or not in violent conflict based on available historical data. Logistic regression is used to construct and test various models to produce a parsimonious world model with 15 variables. Further analysis shows that nations differ significantly by geographical area. Therefore six sub-models are constructed for differing geographical areas of the world. The dominant variables for each sub-model vary, suggesting a …
Using Earned Value Data To Forecast The Duration Of Department Of Defense (Dod) Space Acquisition Programs, Shedrick M. Bridgeforth
Using Earned Value Data To Forecast The Duration Of Department Of Defense (Dod) Space Acquisition Programs, Shedrick M. Bridgeforth
Theses and Dissertations
The accuracy of cost estimates is vital during this era of budget constraints. A key component of this accuracy is regularly updating the cost estimate at completion (EAC). A 2014 study by the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (AFCAA) improved the accuracy of the cost estimate at completion (EAC) for space system contracts. The study found schedule duration to be a cost driver, but assumed the underlying duration estimate was accurate. This research attempts to improve the accuracy of the duration estimate from the AFCAA study; accuracy is evaluated with the Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE). The methods researched here …
Minimum Distance Estimation For Time Series Analysis With Little Data, Hakan Tekin
Minimum Distance Estimation For Time Series Analysis With Little Data, Hakan Tekin
Theses and Dissertations
Minimum distance estimate is a statistical parameter estimate technique that selects model parameters that minimize a good-of-fit statistic. Minimum distance estimation has been demonstrated better standard approaches, including maximum likelihood estimators and least squares, in estimating statistical distribution parameters with very small data sets. This research applies minimum distance estimation to the task of making time series predictions with very few historical observations. In a Monte Carlo analysis, we test a variety of distance measures and report the results based on many different criteria. Our analysis tests the robustness of the approach by testing its ability to make predictions when …
Forecasting Market Index Performance Using Population Demographics, Bradley J. Alden
Forecasting Market Index Performance Using Population Demographics, Bradley J. Alden
Theses and Dissertations
This study attempted to verify claims made by forecaster Harry S. Dent, Jr. It utilized regression analysis in order to determine the correlation between the number of births and the closings on a market index with a specified lag between the input and output variables. While the research was able to develop a model with the factor Dent considers the most important, the predictions based on this model did not completely coincide with the forecasts Dent makes. Furthermore, the research could not confirm the accentuation Dent places on a 46-year lag between predictor and response variables. As an extension, scenarios …