Computer Engineering Commons^™

Influence Of Multi-Temporal High Resolution Remote Sensing Products On Simulated Hydrometeorological Variables In The South-West Of France, Jordi Etchanchu, Vincent Rivalland, Simon Gascoin, Jérôme Cros, Tiphaine Tallec, Claire Marais-Sicre

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Agricultural landscapes are often a patchwork of crop fields whose seasonal evolution depends on specific crop rotation and phenologies. This temporal and spatial heterogeneity have an impact on surface hydrometeorological processes. Accurately evaluating its effect remains a challenge for water management agencies in a context of drought and irrigation supply. The satellite remote sensing products from the Sentinel-2 mission will allow the monitoring of the land cover and the vegetation dynamics. The unprecedented spatial-temporal resolution (5 days, 20m) is fully compatible with heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. In our study we proposed to evaluate the contribution of these remote sensing data on …

A Mathematical Procedure To Estimate Variations Between Grain-Size Distributions, Laura Calcagni, Bianca Di Lorenzo, Rossella Di Mento, Ornella Nonnis, Anna Maria Cicero

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Grain-size is the most fundamental property of sediment particles, its analysis is essential to understand sediment provenance, transport history and depositional conditions. In the ambit of environmental monitoring a key point is often the study of the variations of sediments composition in terms of variation of their grain-size distributions. In this work it is presented a procedure based on the computing of easy mathematical indexes useful to perform in an effective way the comparison of grain-size distributions. The developed procedure consists in two steps of analysis to quantify the dissimilarities between grain-size distributions and to characterize the typology of occurred …

Modeling Herding Behavior On Financial Markets Affected By Exogenous Climate-Related Shocks, Dmitry V. Kovalevsky

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In many economic models (including many models from economics of climate change) the agents make decisions solely on the basis of ‘objective’ information (e.g., the market price level). However, a number of alternative modeling frameworks have been developed, where individual economic agents, when making decisions, take into account the observed behavior of other economic agents. One of pioneering contributions to this research area was the Kirman’s ‘ant model’ (Kirman, 1993). While initially the model was applied to describing the collective behavior of social insects (ants), later it was extensively used for describing the ‘herding behavior’ in economic systems. Particularly, ‘herding …

Comparison Of Flood Modeling Approaches In Semi-Arid Mountainous Catchments (High-Atlas, Morocco), El Mahdi El Khalki, Yves Tramblay, Mohamed El Mehdi Saidi

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In semi-arid regions such as the Mediterranean basin, floods usually represent a large contribution to water resources. In addition, climate scenarios indicate a possible increase in extreme events in the Mediterranean region. Therefore, it is necessary to model floods to better understand the processes involved and predict these risks. The Moroccan catchments flowing downstream of the High-Atlas Mountains are among the areas most vulnerable to flooding. The Issyl catchment (170km²) is located at the foothills of the High Atlas Mountains, with altitudes ranging from 632 to 2295m, and producing floods that directly affect the city of Marrakech. The Rheraya catchment …

Faraway, So Close: An Agent Based Model For Climate, Energy And Macroeconomic Policy, Francesco Lamperti, Giovanni Dosi, Mauro Napoletano, Andrea Roventini, Alessandro Sapio

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper presents an agent based model for the study of coupled economic and climate dynamics that endogenously co-evolve across a range of different scenarios. The model offers a flexible laboratory to test various combinations of macroeconomic, industrial and climate policies both in the context of long run economic growth and medium run transition towards a greener economy. Furthermore, we propose a stochastic description of the feedbacks stemming from a warming and more volatile climate and study how such negative shocks propagate through the economy. For this reason, the model is particularly well suited for the study of extreme climate …

Investing In Adaptation: Flood Risk And Real Option Application To Bilbao, Luis M. Abadie, Elisa Sainz De Murieta, Ibon Galarraga

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Investment decisions in adaptation are usually made under significant uncertainty due to climate change and socio-economic trends. Extreme events cause damage and may become more frequent over time. In this study we propose three ways to incorporate climate and socioeconomic uncertainty into the assessment of adaptation infrastructures in the city of Bilbao. The first suggestions is to use stochastic modelling, which makes it possible at any given time to estimate the present value of expected damage over a time period, considering that extreme events will increase in the future due to climate and socio-economic conditions. An analytical solution for the …

Learning On The Relationships Between Respiratory Desease And The Use Of Traditional Stoves In Bangladesh Households, Camila Vergara, Iñigo Arregui, Alain Balaguer, Tamia Gómez, Carmen Sandoval, Miquel Sànchez Marrè, Karina Gibert

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

More than 4 million people die prematurely every year by deseases related to indoor air pollution produced by solid fuels used in cooking (WHO, 2016, Jones 1999), fifty thousand of them in Bangladesh (News Medical, 2012), being women and children the most affected. Risk of pneumonia is high due to the irritants, toxins and carcinogens realeased into air by the incomplete combustion of solid fuels (biomass) used in traditional stoves (WHO 2016), which produce PM10 (particulate matter, small enough (≤10μm) to get into lungs). An open data base from the World Bank (WHO, 2016) (Dasgutpa et al 2006) describing a …

Online Processing Of Energy And Water Consumption Data To Deliver End Use Characterisation, Andrea Vescovi, Dario Piga, Andrea Cominola, Matteo Giuliani, Andrea Castelleti, Andrea Emilio Rizzoli

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Monitoring the household end-use energy and water consumption is essential to design efficient resource management programs and to provide personalized feedback to consumers, so that: (i) users are aware of how much energy/water each appliance is consuming, and personalized hints for reducing their consumption can be given; (ii) household’s occupants can be informed on potential savings in deferring the use of some appliances to off-peak hours; (iii) water utilities can test the impact of different management strategies. In this work, we present a Java Web Service implementation of a recently-developed algorithm for decomposing the aggregate (energy or water) household consumption …

Balancing Trade-Offs Among Aquatic Ecosystem Services While Navigating Through Regime Shifts, Romina Martin, Maja Schlüter

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Eutrophication can cause shallow lakes to experience regime shifts from the clear to the turbid state which impairs multiple dependent ecosystem services (such as drinking water or sites for recreational activities). While in most cases the clear state is seen as favorable, once it shifted to the turbid, its restoration is difficult and the costs often outweigh the expected benefits. While in some places costly restorations are under way, e.g. through biomanipulation and wetland construction, it remains challenging to implement measures that are able to support multiple ecosystem services simultaneously without compromising other connected services. More precisely, lake managers need …

On Spatial Complexity Of Parameters In Agro-Ecosystem Watershed Models: Confounding Or Illuminating?, Timothy R. Green, Robert H. Erskine, Patrícia P. N. Da Cruz, Ricardo De O. Figueiredo, Holm Kipka, James Ascough, Gregory S. Mcmaster, Olaf David

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Increased confidence is often sought by adding spatial complexity to watershed models and model parameters; does increasing complexity improve the results or just make us feel better about the modeling effort? The answer to this question can depend upon the dominant biophysical properties of a watershed, knowledge of different types or layers of spatial variability, and the information content of the measured responses. The context for this study comprises a large literature base, particularly in the field of hydrology, some of which will be discussed. A balance of “lumping” and “splitting” is proposed in a conceptual framework, where lumping (spatial …

Modelling For Reproducibility, Transparency, And Continuous Learning: Revisiting Jakeman’S 10 Steps, Thorsten Arnold

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Numerical modelling has become the standard tool to evaluate vast amounts of data, both for the public management of natural resources by government agencies and to understand environmental interactions within academia. While an ever-increasing amount of software tools is being developed and approaches are formulated how modellers should interact with stakeholders, the modelling community has not yet addressed criteria how these tools and approaches are applied cost effectively. Across the board, public agencies and academia continue to experience budget and time overruns that are systematic and need to be addressed if environmental modelling shall provide the benefits that modellers claim. …

Climate Change Impacts On Precipitation Extremes, Flows And Flash Floods In Mediterranean Mesoscale Catchments, Antoine Colmet Daage, Sophie Ricci, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Valérie Borrell Estupina, Eric Servat, Cécile Llovel

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Mediterranean meso-scale river catchments are submitted to extremes floods events linked to intense convective precipitation and local hydrologic features (karst, soil moisture, land use).The Mediterranean region is known to be one of the most affected areas by global warming, and it is likely that changes can be expected in the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to assess the climate change impacts on extreme precipitation events using a so-called “futurization” method, in which a transfer function is built by comparing the quantiles of distribution for both present and future climate precipitation. A number of historical flood events, previously …

Collaborative Modelling Of The Renewable Energy Transition: The Collage/Apolus Framework, Cheryl De Boer, Johannes Flacke, Richard Hewitt, Veronica Hernandez-Jimenez

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Transition to a low-carbon economy requires a complete transformation of the energy sector. The replacement of traditional energy sources with renewables implies extensive changes to socio-ecological systems and existing structures. Simply replacing fossil fuels with renewables in a large-scale producer-controlled commercial system is unlikely to be successful. Rather, local, decentralized, publicly supported renewable energy initiatives are predicted to play a major role in this transition.

These increasingly popular projects involve new actors and dynamics and have impacts that are insufficiently understood. There is a need for new tools and approaches to support co-design of integrated regional spatial planning and land …

How Can Farmers‘ Decisions And Policy Actions On Novel Bioenergy Feedstocks Affect The Supply Of Ecosystem Service Bundles?, Jule Schulze, Karin Frank, Joerg A. Priess, Markus A. Meyer

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Meeting the world’s growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. In this context, decision-making problems in agricultural management need to be informed by comprehensive impact assessments of novel bioenergy feedstocks that consider multiple ecosystem services (ESS). In this study, we assess the expansion of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the Mulde watershed in Central Germany. We model cultivation decisions of profit-maximizing farmers under different economic scenarios based on a spatially explicit agent-based model. In addition, we assess two policy scenarios, in which SRCs are cultivated to fulfil the requirements of …

Understanding Alternatives For The Swiss Electricity Sector Transition Under Deep Uncertainty, Philip Berntsen, Evelina Trutnevyte

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Widely used energy system models have been shown to underestimate the deep uncertainty inherent in the real-world energy transition. The models generate a small set of scenarios, too sparse to cover the broad range of alternatives for the future energy transitions. This presentation introduces the EXPANSE model (EXploration of PAtterns in Near-optimal energy ScEnarios) and reveals how it can be used to facilitate a systematic selection and learning about alternative future energy system transitions under deep uncertainty. The model will be demonstrated by applying it to the Swiss electricity sector in 2035 and 2050. EXPANSE is a deterministic bottom-up, technology-rich …

Using Text Mining And Ontology Tools To Identify Important Factors For Modelling Long-Term Carbon Sequestration, Rebekka Hüfner

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Human induced land-use changes and land-cover changes (LUCC) are a major driving force of global environmental change. To develop an improved scientific understanding of the mechanisms and effects of LUCC models and scenarios are important tools. The integrated model LandSHIFT was developed to study LUCC under different biophysical and socio-economical scenarios. It is a spatially explicit modelling system that aims at simulating and analysing land use dynamics and their impacts on the environment at global and regional level. Land-use activities in LandSHIFT are allocated depending on processed demands and suitability values for every land-use activity. In order to study the …

Green-Smart Technologies For A Sustainable Use Of The Water Resource At Urban And Building Level, S. Alvisi, M. Franchini

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The underlying ideas, aims and expected results of a recently started project named “Green-Smart Technologies for a sustainable use of the water resource at urban and building level (GST4W)” are presented. The projected, founded by the European Community through the Regione Emilia Romagna POR-FESR action, is aimed at developing hardware and software solutions for an aware use of the water resource at user level, and for the reuse of the rainwater and greywater within the buildings. More in details, the project is based on four workpackages; WP1 and WP2 are aimed at the development of a real time monitoring system …

Modelling Forest Insect Outbreaks: Efforts Towards An Inverse Approach To Model Calibration, Liliana Perez, Roberto Molowny-Horas, Saeed Harati

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Modelling and simulation of epidemic insect outbreaks are powerful tools to be used in planning and preparing strategies for forest management under climate change. Calibration is a fundamental part of the modelling strategy. It aims to find those parameter values that allow the best characterization of emergent spatiotemporal dynamics within the system being modelled. In this study we implemented a cellular automata (CA) model to simulate the mountain pine beetle (MPB) epidemic in western Canada, which has killed about 50% of the total volume of commercial lodgepole pine in the province since 1990. We used spatial information on annual mortality …

Managing A Lake Ecosystem Using A Food-Web Model – Lake Kinneret As A Case Study, Eyal Ofir, Gideon Gal, James Shapiro

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Lake Kinneret is a freshwater lake located in the northern part of Israel. The lake is one of the most important freshwater resources in Israel, and maintaining a stable ecosystem is of prime importance. The ecosystem has, however, changed dramatically during the last 20 years. Following the destabilization that occurred in the lake ecosystem biomanipulation measures such as fish stocking of certain species and removal of another were used in order to restabilize the ecosystem. Most biomanipulation measures did not succeed in achieving their goals. For instance, 10 years of intense fishing efforts to remove the Lavnun fish (A …

Machine Learning In Surface Ocean Co2 Mapping, Jive Zeng, Nobuko Saigusa, Tsuneo Matsunaga, Tomoko Shirai

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a major greenhouse gas affecting long term global climate change. According to the Global Carbon Budget 2013 (Quéré et al., 2014, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 235–263), total global carbon emissions increased from 3.9 GtC/yr in 1959 to 10.7 GtC/yr in 2012, of which approximately 43% remained in the atmosphere, 30% went to terrestrial sinks, and 27% to the oceans. A method to estimate the oceanic sink is by calculating the air-sea CO2 exchange rate of CO2. While obtaining accurate distributions of the surface ocean CO2 (SOC) is critical to minimize uncertainty for this method, it …

Spatio-Temporal Modelling To Assess Ecosystem Condition And Services In The Intercontinental Biosphere Reserve Of The Mediterranean (Spain – Morocco) Using K.Lab, Javier Martínez-López, Marta Pascual, Ana Barbosa, Óscar Esparza Alaminos, Stefano Balbi, Ferdinando Villa

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This study is framed under the AQUACROSS project, which aims to support EU efforts to protect aquatic biodiversity and ensure the provision of aquatic ecosystem services. The study area is the Intercontinental Biosphere Reserve of the Mediterranean: a one million hectare reserve that passes through the Strait of Gibraltar and includes river basins, coastal and marine waters. The case study aims to identify the major drivers and pressures, such as water management and planning, fragmentation of water bodies, pollution, water uses, water prices, illegal extraction, drought and water scarcity. A set of indicators will be identified to assess the provision …

Multi-Model Custodianship: Needs, Development And Challenges, Mason Marchildon, Thorsten Arnold, Steve Holysh, Rick Gerber

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In 2000, the province of Ontario, Canada, embarked on a Source Water Protection program with the objective of providing multi-level protection for drinking water supplies. This initiative was instigated by a tragedy in the town of Walkerton where multiple deaths resulted from ingestion of e-coli contaminated groundwater. As part of the Source Water Protection Program, numerous technically- sophisticated regional-scale hydrological models have been developed. As a result, local government agencies (municipal and conservation authority) have found themselves on a new pathway for water resources management that intends to utilize these numerical models as key tools for understanding and managing water …

From Climate Change Awareness To Energy Efficient Behaviour, Leila Niamir, Tatiana Filatova

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Understanding and predicting how climate will change, and whether and how a transition to low-carbon economies will develop over the next century is of vital importance. Nowadays there is high competition between countries to achieve a low-carbon economy. They are examining different ways e.g. different energy efficient technologies and low-carbon energy sources, however they believe that human choices and behavioural change has a crucial impact, which is many times discussed in the literature as well. In this paper, we aim to discuss challenges related to modelling behavioural changes on the demand side and show effect of the demand side activation …

Trade-Offs Between Carbon Storage, Crop Yield Production And Water Supply At The Global Scale, Sven Lautenbach, Anita D. Bayer, Almut Arneth

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Through land-use, humans affect natural ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services (ES). The present pattern of land-use types developed over the last millennia in response to a complex interplay of natural-system constraints and socio-economic pressures. However, the current land-use pattern might not be considered optimal in terms of its provision of a variety of ES. At the global scale food security, water availability and carbon storage are three objectives of highest importance. Knowledge about the trade-offs between these objectives is of concern if global pathways for future developments are discussed. To provide information on these trade-offs we evaluate the global configuration …

Build-In Uncertainty In Agent-Based Model And Its Impact On Social-Ecological System Decision-Making Under Deep Uncertainty, Han Su, Xiao Liu, Yong Liu

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Social-Ecological System is a complex system and often confronts tipping points under deep uncertainty. These uncertainties come from both social and natural processes and most current studies payed more attention to natural part than social. In this study, we construct two models, agent-based model (ABM) and system dynamics (SD) model, based on the same assumption to describe the same social system and the same process where house owners update their Onsite Sewage System which would then affect nutrient level in a shallow lake. ABM has its build-in uncertainty and we believe the uncertainty can present part of deep uncertainties in …

Agro-Ecosystem Adaptation To Climate Change – How Does Crop Model Uncertainty Affect The Choice Of Optimum Adaptation Responses?, A. Holzkämper, T. Klein, R. Seppelt, J. Fuhrer

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Amongst the crop modelling community, it is now widely acknowledged that model uncertainties can have huge implications on the results from climate impact studies. While uncertainties in climate impact assessments are increasingly being considered, studies investigating the implications of model uncertainties on recommendations for adaptation responses are still very rare. To address this gap, this study investigates how crop model uncertainty can affect the selection of suitable adaptation responses. The agroecosystem model CropSyst is applied in connection with an optimization routine to select optimum adaptation options with regard to different adaptation goals (i.e. maximum productivity, minimum erosion, minimum leaching). By …

Hydrological And Biogeochemical Modelling Of Carbon Fluxes In An Arctic River: The Yenisei (North Of Russia), Clément Fabre, José Miguel Sanchez Perez, Nikita Tananaev, Roman Teisserenc, Grégory Espitalier Noël, Sabine Sauvage

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Permafrost represents one of the biggest organic carbon stocks on Earth. Organic carbon is exported from rivers to oceans by the particulate (POC) and the dissolved (DOC) form. Carbon fluxes represent 22 to 32 teragrams of carbon per year (TgC.yr^-1; 1 Tg = 10¹² g) in the Arctic Ocean. This export is a main concern in this time of global changes. With global warming, the superficial layer in permafrost could unfreeze deeper and exports of old organic carbon (accumulated for thousands of years) would be possible and could disturb recent carbon cycles. Based on some sporadic data, …

Assessing Input-Output Relations In Environmental Data By Means Of Fuzzy Clustering And Bayesian Inference, L. Bigozzi, E. El Basri, F. Ianniciello, S. Marsili-Libelli, I. Simonetti

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

When dealing with complex environmental datasets, it is also difficult to establish the strength of the input-output relation among variables. Correlation analysis may yield a preliminary indication, but is limited to the linear case. Mutual Information (MI) is a more powerful method which can establish input-output dependence regardless of the nature of their interaction. However, to avoid the heavy computational demand of MI, a simple method is presented based on fuzzy clustering and Bayes’ rule. After a preliminary conditioning phase, the data are grouped by fuzzy clustering and approximated with the value of the most relevant centroid. Then the prior …

Multi-Label Classification Methods For Predicting Mixed Land Use Change, Hichem Omrani, Amin Tayyebi, Amir H. Tayyebi, Bryan Pijanowski

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Current progress on land use highlights the interest of the multi-label concept in predicting land use change. The new concept allows a multi-label class assignment (ML), where a spatial unit may be associated simultaneously with a set of multiple classes. The multi-label concept is different than the commonly used mono-label one (ml: binary or multi-class), in which a spatial unit has only one elementary label at a time. Recently, it has been shown the merit of the ML concept to model mixed land use change. In this paper, we study the multi-label class-assignment by different multi- label classifications models. The …

Comparative Study Between Spatial-Implicit And -Explicit Model: A Case Study Of Vegetation Pattern In Salt Marshes, Man Qi, Alexey Voinov, Tao Sun

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

From the inception of plant ecology as an independent field, much attention has been focused on understanding spatial and temporal changes in vegetation. Spatially explicit models, such as cellular automation (CA), were widely used to explore simple rules that control vegetation patterns in nature. However, compared to implicit model which was derived from statistic survey and was widely applied to uncover practical issues, spatial explicit model still rests on mimicking the complexities of real behaviours and stimulate new insights about them. Comparative analysis between these two model types was rarely explored. In this study, we simulated the vegetation pattern of …