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Full-Text Articles in Computer Engineering

Identification And Ranking Of High Pedestrian Crash Zones Using Gis, Vanjeeswaran Krishnakumar, Srinivas Pulugurtha, Shashi Nambisan Sep 2014

Identification And Ranking Of High Pedestrian Crash Zones Using Gis, Vanjeeswaran Krishnakumar, Srinivas Pulugurtha, Shashi Nambisan

Shashi Nambisan

Identification of high risk zones is important to develop and implement strategies to enhance pedestrian safety. While the analysis of motor vehicle related crashes has seen the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), pedestrian related safety analyses have not taken as much advantage of the capabilities afforded by GIS programs. The objectives of this research are to present a methodology to identify and rank high pedestrian crash zones, and to introduce a GIS based tool based on the methodology. Capabilities of the tool include the following: identify spatial concentration patterns, select high pedestrian crash zones, extract crash and demographic characteristics ...


Modelling Biofilm Based Technologies With Activated Sludge Unit Processes: A Short Cut To Performance Simulation?, Noella Jones, Maebh Grace, Eoghan Clifford Jun 2014

Modelling Biofilm Based Technologies With Activated Sludge Unit Processes: A Short Cut To Performance Simulation?, Noella Jones, Maebh Grace, Eoghan Clifford

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Biofilm-based passive aeration systems (PAS) have attracted recent attention as alternative, energy efficient and low maintenance technologies in the wastewater sector. However the modelling of biofilm-based PAS offers unique challenges for modellers, particularly where new technologies are not easily simulated using existing commercial modelling software. However, if the modeller is concerned only with simulating "macro" plant performance (e.g. key effluent concentrations and cycle analysis) it may be possible to efficiently model these technologies using "surrogate" unit process systems (e.g. using an activated sludge process to model a biofilm process). The pumped flow biofilm reactor (PFBR); a batch biofilm ...


Linking A Modified Epic-Based Plant Growth Model (Upgm) With A Component-Based Watershed Model (Ages-W), Gregory S. Mcmaster, James C. Ascough Ii, Debora A. Edmunds, Olaf David, Larry E. Wagner, Fred A. Fox, Robert H. Erskine, Holm Kipka, Timothy R. Green Jun 2014

Linking A Modified Epic-Based Plant Growth Model (Upgm) With A Component-Based Watershed Model (Ages-W), Gregory S. Mcmaster, James C. Ascough Ii, Debora A. Edmunds, Olaf David, Larry E. Wagner, Fred A. Fox, Robert H. Erskine, Holm Kipka, Timothy R. Green

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Agricultural models and decision support systems (DSS) for assessing water use and management are increasingly being applied to diverse geographic regions at different scales. This requires models that can simulate different crops, however, very few plant growth models are available that "easily" can simulate the growth of many common and alternative crops. One option available is a suite of plant growth models based on the original plant growth model used in EPIC (Erosion Productivity Index Calculator). Various versions of the original EPIC plant growth model have been used in other agroecosystem models such as the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS ...


Improved Implicit Stochastic Optimization Technique For Multireservoir Water Systems Under Drought Conditions, Andrea Sulis Jun 2014

Improved Implicit Stochastic Optimization Technique For Multireservoir Water Systems Under Drought Conditions, Andrea Sulis

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Drought is a creeping phenomenon, making its onset and end difficult to determine. Damages from droughts can exceed those resulting from any other natural hazard, although it is difficult to assign a monetary value to them. In the Mediterranean area a severe drought period occurred over the years 2000-2002 and economic losses from that drought exceeded 250 million euros in Sardinia (Italy) (source: ENAS Regional Water Authority). Currently, technological developments and environmental modelling tools are improving our ability to more effectively manage water supply systems. Models can provide decision makers with better and more timely data and information. In this ...


Dynamic Feedback Between Land Use And Hydrology For Ecosystem Services Assessment, Seleshi Getahun Yalew, Tobias Pilz, Christian Schweitzer, Stefan Liersch, Johannes Van Der Kwast, Marloes L. Mul, Ann Van Griensven, Pieter Van Der Zaag Jun 2014

Dynamic Feedback Between Land Use And Hydrology For Ecosystem Services Assessment, Seleshi Getahun Yalew, Tobias Pilz, Christian Schweitzer, Stefan Liersch, Johannes Van Der Kwast, Marloes L. Mul, Ann Van Griensven, Pieter Van Der Zaag

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Ecosystem services assessment requires an integrated approach, as it is influenced by elements such as climate, hydrology and socio-economics, which in turn influence each other. However, there are few studies that integrate these elements in order to assess ecosystem services. Absence of integrated approach to modelling hydrological and land-use changes, for instance, often oversights the dynamic feedback between the two processes. Dynamic changes in land-use should be fed into hydrological models and vice-versa at each time-step for a more realistic representation. In this study, this approach is demonstrated with a case study of the uThukela catchment, South Africa. There is ...


Development Of A Decision Support Tool To Allocate Irrigation Water On Competitive Basis: Application To Kathiraveli Village, Sri Lanka, Tom Le Cerf, Muhammed A. Bhuiyan Jun 2014

Development Of A Decision Support Tool To Allocate Irrigation Water On Competitive Basis: Application To Kathiraveli Village, Sri Lanka, Tom Le Cerf, Muhammed A. Bhuiyan

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper focuses specifically on the irrigation field and water supply tanks for ways to improve efficiency of water use and increase the resilience to climatic variability. The purpose of this paper is to develop an excel-based water balance model that will allow the maximum cropping area be planted in the upcoming agricultural season. The model consists of three modules: a crop water requirement calculator that allows the water requirements of specific crops to be compared, a water tank balance model, and a model which simulates the storage in the permanent wetland attached to the irrigation tank. The hydrological computation ...


Challenges/Advances In Distributed Watershed Modeling: A Review And Application Of The Agroecosystem-Watershed (Ages-W) Model, James C. Ascough Ii, Timothy R. Green, Olaf David, Holm Kipka, Gregory S. Mcmaster, Manfred Fink, Peter Krause, Sven Kralisch Jun 2014

Challenges/Advances In Distributed Watershed Modeling: A Review And Application Of The Agroecosystem-Watershed (Ages-W) Model, James C. Ascough Ii, Timothy R. Green, Olaf David, Holm Kipka, Gregory S. Mcmaster, Manfred Fink, Peter Krause, Sven Kralisch

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Progress in the understanding of physical, chemical, and biological processes influencing water quality, coupled with advances in the collection and analysis of hydrologic data, provide opportunities for significant innovations in the manner and level with which watershed-scale processes may be quantified and modeled. This paper first provides a brief review of current challenges and advances in distributed watershed modeling including quantifying and coping with the uncertainty, data availability, influence of data resolution and scaling issues, and the use of environmental modeling frameworks that help maintain model modularity, reusability, and interoperability (or compatibility). Important findings and observed trends from this work ...


Agroecosystem-Watershed (Ages-W) Model Delineation And Scaling, Timothy R. Green, Robert H. Erskine, James C. Ascough Ii, Bruce Vandenberg, Björn Pfennig, Holm Kipka, Olaf David, Micheal L. Coleman Jun 2014

Agroecosystem-Watershed (Ages-W) Model Delineation And Scaling, Timothy R. Green, Robert H. Erskine, James C. Ascough Ii, Bruce Vandenberg, Björn Pfennig, Holm Kipka, Olaf David, Micheal L. Coleman

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Water movement and storage within an agricultural watershed can be simulated at different spatial resolutions of land areas or hydrological response units (HRUs). Interactions between HRUs in space and time vary with the HRU sizes, such that natural scaling relationships are confounded with the simulation scales. Scaling concepts can be tested using the AgroEcoSystem­ Watershed (AgES-W) model with different resolutions of HRUs. Here, we delineated a 56-ha agricultural watershed in northern Colorado, USA farmed primarily under a wheat-fallow rotation. Factors used to distinguish HRUs included topography (surface flow paths), land use (crop strips and native grass), and mapped soil units ...


A Decision Support System Approach For Identifying Poliutant Source For Optimization Of Beneficial Management Practices Scenario Modelling In Lake Winnipeg Watersheds, Isaac Wong, Luis Leon, Jason Vanrobaeys, Craig Mccrimmon, Phil Fong Jun 2014

A Decision Support System Approach For Identifying Poliutant Source For Optimization Of Beneficial Management Practices Scenario Modelling In Lake Winnipeg Watersheds, Isaac Wong, Luis Leon, Jason Vanrobaeys, Craig Mccrimmon, Phil Fong

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) results can be used to source trace loading "hotspots• for optimally locating beneficial management practices (BMP). It is possible to trace upstream and compute the relative contribution of each sub-basin to a point of interest, accounting for in-stream processes, reservoirs and point sources. A decision support system (DSS) framework was developed to run SWAT, perform the otherwise tedious process of source tracing "hotspots" and to optimize BMP locations. The "Crop to Hay- land use change BMP scenario was applied in an attempt to reduce annual loadings of total phosphorus (TP) for three Lake ...


A Best-Worst Scaling Model Of Climate Change Abatement By Australian Farmers, Marit E. Kragt, Nikki Dumbrell, Fiona Gibson Jun 2014

A Best-Worst Scaling Model Of Climate Change Abatement By Australian Farmers, Marit E. Kragt, Nikki Dumbrell, Fiona Gibson

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Storing carbon from the atmosphere in terrestrial sinks has been proposed as an important way to mitigate climate change and is a major focus in Australia's climate change policies. Mitigation by changing agricultural practices is seen as a promising way to achieve significant reductions in C02 concentrations. Several policies therefore aim to stimulate farmers to adopt so-called 'carbon farming' practices. However, there is little information about farmers' ability and willingness to adopt carbon farming. We present a best-worst scaling model to analyse farmers' decisions about adopting climate change mitigating practices. Best-worst scaling data was collected through a survey amongst ...


Ontology Mapping In Semantic Time Series Processing In Climate Change Prediction, Bojan Božić, Jan Peters-Anders, Gerald Schimak Jun 2014

Ontology Mapping In Semantic Time Series Processing In Climate Change Prediction, Bojan Božić, Jan Peters-Anders, Gerald Schimak

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In today's time series processing there is more and more a need for addressing diverse user groups interested in a specific domain with appropriate user tailored time series data. The complexity of time series (e.g. involved data from different data sources and/or domains, visualization and representation, etc.) is growing rapidly. As a consequence, it means that users need to find a path through the jungle of time series data. After we have presented our concepts for semantic time series filtering and enrichment of time series with meta-information and annotations (Božić et al., 2012), we are now going ...


Metadata Extraction Using Semantic And Natural Language Processing Techniques, Rob Knapen, Thomas Hüsing, Klaus Jacob, Yke Van Randen, Stefan Reis, Onno Roosenschoon, Sander Janssen Jun 2014

Metadata Extraction Using Semantic And Natural Language Processing Techniques, Rob Knapen, Thomas Hüsing, Klaus Jacob, Yke Van Randen, Stefan Reis, Onno Roosenschoon, Sander Janssen

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The World Wide Web and related technologies are playing an increasing role in the field of Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM). Model integration software frameworks are more and more becoming web-enabled. The technologies and standards of the Web are used to access and run simulation models remotely (known as the Web of models) and are considered for enabling interoperability across model integration frameworks. Furthermore there is a growing number of local and global initiatives to provide open access to environmental data (Web of data) that can potentially be used as input for the scientific models. The availability of descriptive information of ...


Enhancing The Policy Relevance Of Scenarios Through A Dynamic Analytical Approach, Céline Guivarch, Vanessa Schweizer, Julia Rozenberg Jun 2014

Enhancing The Policy Relevance Of Scenarios Through A Dynamic Analytical Approach, Céline Guivarch, Vanessa Schweizer, Julia Rozenberg

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

We present a new dynamic analytical approach for studying scenarios produced by an integrated assessment {IA) model. Our approach involves the analysis of a large number of scenarios, which can better address three principal shortcomings of how uncertainty is traditionally handled in IA scenario studies. The shortcomings are all a result of the prevailing practice of investigating a small number of scenarios and include (1) the ad hoc nature of exploring vast socioeconomic uncertainties with only a small number of scenarios; (2) the conventional representation of alternative scenario typologies as "parallel universes• or "diverging universes•, which provide little insight on ...


Hypothesis Testing For Management: Evolving And Answering Closed Questions Using Multiobjective Visualization, Joseph Kasprzyk, Joseph Guillaume, Joshua Kollat, Chris Danilo Jun 2014

Hypothesis Testing For Management: Evolving And Answering Closed Questions Using Multiobjective Visualization, Joseph Kasprzyk, Joseph Guillaume, Joshua Kollat, Chris Danilo

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In order to use models to understand deeply uncertain future conditions, managers must be able to pose and test hypotheses about their management problems. In Iterative Closed Question Methodology (ICQM), a series of closed questions are used to structure thinking about hypotheses while looking beyond a problem's existing modeling representation. Our research is exploring how ICQM can contribute to a framework called Many Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM), which uses multiobjective optimization and ensembles of uncertain future states of the world to create and evaluate robust solutions for environmental management. A visualization software tool; AeroVis, has greatly aided implementation ...


Global Sensitivity Analysis Of Key Parameters In A Process-Based Sugarcane Growth Model - A Bayesian Approach, Justin Sexton, Yvette Everingham Jun 2014

Global Sensitivity Analysis Of Key Parameters In A Process-Based Sugarcane Growth Model - A Bayesian Approach, Justin Sexton, Yvette Everingham

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

While several statistical methods are available to analyse model sensitivity, their application to complex process-based models is often impractical due to the large number of simulation runs required. A Bayesian approach to global sensitivity analysis can greatly reduce the number of simulation runs required by building an emulator of the model which is less computationally demanding. A Gaussian Emulation Machine (GEM) was used to efficiently assess the sensitivity of key agronomic outputs from the APSIM-Sugar crop model to influential input parameters. The sensitivity of simulated biomass and sucrose at harvest was assessed on 14 parameters representing varietal differences and growth ...


Integration Of Models For Low Carbon Economy, Getachew F. Belete, Alexey Voinov Jun 2014

Integration Of Models For Low Carbon Economy, Getachew F. Belete, Alexey Voinov

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Designing the transition to low carbon economy is a very complex task that touches upon a wide variety of climate-energy-economic systems. We need to explore the various possible climate mitigation scenarios at different temporal and spatial scales. However, due to the diversity of the involved disciplines it is difficult to find one complete and unified modeling approach that works equally well in all those different domains. As a result we have to select 'appropriate' models, which represent only specific aspects of the scenarios and assemble them 'coherently'. In this research we have identified some challenges in integrating multidisciplinary models; and ...


Assessing The Transition To A Low-Carbon Economy Using Actor-Based System-Dynamic Models, Dmitry V. Kovalevsky, Klaus Hasselmann Jun 2014

Assessing The Transition To A Low-Carbon Economy Using Actor-Based System-Dynamic Models, Dmitry V. Kovalevsky, Klaus Hasselmann

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

For a comprehensive analysis of climate mitigation policies, Integrated Assessment models (IAMs) of the coupled climate-socioeconomic system are needed. However, while there is general agreement on the physics of the climate system, the dynamics of the socioeconomic system is still the subject of considerable controversy. This has become particularly apparent since the recent global financial crisis. To explore the dynamics of the socio-economic system, a family of socio-economic models is proposed that incorporates the various alternative assumptions regarding the behaviour of the different economic actors that govern the evolution of the socio-economic system. The model family needs to be developed ...


Empirical Agent-Based Modelling Of Everyday Pro­Environmental Behaviours At Work, Gary Polhill, Tony Craig, Amparo Alonso-Betanzos, Noelia Sanchez-Maroño, Óscar Fontenla-Romero, Adina Dumitru, Mirilia Bonnes, Marini Bonaiuto, Giuseppe Carrus, Ferdinando Fornara, Fridanna Maricchiolo, Linda Steg, Angela Ruepert, Kees Kaizer, Ricardo García-Mira Jun 2014

Empirical Agent-Based Modelling Of Everyday Pro­Environmental Behaviours At Work, Gary Polhill, Tony Craig, Amparo Alonso-Betanzos, Noelia Sanchez-Maroño, Óscar Fontenla-Romero, Adina Dumitru, Mirilia Bonnes, Marini Bonaiuto, Giuseppe Carrus, Ferdinando Fornara, Fridanna Maricchiolo, Linda Steg, Angela Ruepert, Kees Kaizer, Ricardo García-Mira

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

We report on agent-based modelling work in the LOCAW project (Low Carbon at Work: Modelling Agents and Organisations to Achieve Transition to a Low Carbon Europe). The project explored the effectiveness of various backcasting scenarios conducted with case study organisations in bringing about pro-environmental change in the workforce in the domains of transport, energy use and waste. The model used qualitative representations of workspaces in formalising each scenario, and decision trees learned from questionnaire responses to represent decision-making. We describe the process by which the decision trees were constructed, noting that the use of decision trees in agent-based models requires ...


Integrated Modelling Of Social-Ecological Systems: The Maelia High-Resolution Multi-Agent Platform To Deal With Water Scarcity Problems, Olivier Therond, Christophe Sibertin-Blanc, Romain Lardy, Benoit Gaudou, Maud Balestrat, Yi Hong, Thomas Louail, Van Bai Nguyen, David Panzoli, José-Miguel Sanchez-Perez, Sabine Sauvage, Patrick Taillandier, Maroussia Vavasseur, Pierre Mazzega Jun 2014

Integrated Modelling Of Social-Ecological Systems: The Maelia High-Resolution Multi-Agent Platform To Deal With Water Scarcity Problems, Olivier Therond, Christophe Sibertin-Blanc, Romain Lardy, Benoit Gaudou, Maud Balestrat, Yi Hong, Thomas Louail, Van Bai Nguyen, David Panzoli, José-Miguel Sanchez-Perez, Sabine Sauvage, Patrick Taillandier, Maroussia Vavasseur, Pierre Mazzega

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Sustainable water resource management is typical of environmental management problems emerging from complex social-ecological systems. It deeply depends upon water user strategies, land use management and water governance systems. MAELIA, a "policy issue" modelling platform, allows performing integrated assessment at watershed level of a wide range of scenarios regarding water and land use management strategies in combination with global changes. It has been developed through a strong analysis of different French water management situations and an inductive modelling process. It allows representing dynamic interactions between human activities (farming practices), ecological processes (hydrology and crop growth), and governance systems (water regulations ...


The Virtual Learning Commons (Vlc): Enabling Sharing And Innovation For Flexible, Responsive Solutions, Deana D. Pennington, Alida Gándara, Nick Del Rio, Omar Ochoa Jun 2014

The Virtual Learning Commons (Vlc): Enabling Sharing And Innovation For Flexible, Responsive Solutions, Deana D. Pennington, Alida Gándara, Nick Del Rio, Omar Ochoa

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A key challenge in modeling of complex natural systems is identifying and integrating models and tools that are relevant, but were not developed for the targeted purpose. Modeling resources are proliferating, along with emerging technologies designed to enable discovery and integration of data and models. The goal of the Virtual Learning Commons (VLC) is to improve awareness and understanding of emerging methodologies and technologies, facilitate individual and group evaluation of these for innovative uses, and trace the impact of innovations across research communities. The VLC is funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation, and will be released in 2014 ...


Designing Innovative Linked Open Data And Semantic Technologies In Agro-Environmental Modelling, Rob Lokers, Stasinos Konstantopoulos, Armando Stellato, Rob Knapen, Sander Janssen Jun 2014

Designing Innovative Linked Open Data And Semantic Technologies In Agro-Environmental Modelling, Rob Lokers, Stasinos Konstantopoulos, Armando Stellato, Rob Knapen, Sander Janssen

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In recent years, innovative applications exploiting Linked Open Data (LOD) and the Semantic Web have opened up, combined and cross referenced high volumes of high-quality data and created tremendous new opportunities for data users as well as data providers. However, in order to serve the broadest community of users, technologies need to be developed that can manage large, constantly updated datasets and streams that are published in formats that were not designed with cross source linking in mind.

The EU-FP7 project SemaGrow aims to tackle this challenge by developing novel algorithms and methods for querying distributed triple stores, scalable and ...


An Application Of Geographical And Statistical Linked Data To Ecology: The Brazilian Cerrado Ontology Network And Qualitative Reasoning Models, Adriano Souza, Oscar Corcho, Paulo Salles, Luis Vilches-Blázquez Jun 2014

An Application Of Geographical And Statistical Linked Data To Ecology: The Brazilian Cerrado Ontology Network And Qualitative Reasoning Models, Adriano Souza, Oscar Corcho, Paulo Salles, Luis Vilches-Blázquez

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This work aims to link data about wood plant communities obtained from scientific studies about the Brazilian Cerrado biome, meteorological and environmental data, geographical information (maps) and Qualitative Reasoning (QR) conceptual models. An ontology network was developed in order to integrate data from different sources. Data Cube, AEMET, GeoSPARQL, and Time ontologies and QR formalism were used as general ontologies. In addition, two domain ontologies--Cerrado Concepts and Wood Plant Dynamics Ontology (Ccon) and Fire Ontology (Fire)--were developed to represent scientific knowledge about vegetation ecology focused on vegetation dynamics under different burning regimens. Datasets provided by Brazilian geovernment agencies and ...


Trade-Offs Of Biogas Production: Comparing Crop Ro­Tations Under Different Climate Scenarios, Sven Lautenbach, Martin Volk, Micheal Strauch, Gerald Whittaker, Ralf Seppelt Jun 2014

Trade-Offs Of Biogas Production: Comparing Crop Ro­Tations Under Different Climate Scenarios, Sven Lautenbach, Martin Volk, Micheal Strauch, Gerald Whittaker, Ralf Seppelt

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

While increasing biofuel production is worldwide on the political agenda, concerns about the involved trade-offs are on the rise. However, the quantification of these trade-offs is typically based on the comparison of a limited number of plausible alternatives. We extended the analysis by applying a multi-objective genetic algorithm to estimate the set of Pareto optimal solutions which de­scribe the trade-offs between the objectives. The Pareto solutions represent the (estimated) best op­tions given the model and the specified control options. Our analysis studied food and fodder based crop rotations and two alternative biogas crop production schemes: a corn based ...


Testing Site-Specific Parameterizations Of Longwave Radiation Integrated In A Gis-Based Hydrological Model, Giuseppe Formetta, Olaf David, Riccardo Rigon Jun 2014

Testing Site-Specific Parameterizations Of Longwave Radiation Integrated In A Gis-Based Hydrological Model, Giuseppe Formetta, Olaf David, Riccardo Rigon

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Incoming (Rli) and outgoing (Rlo) longwave atmospheric radiation are very important components of the global radiation balance. They influence many hydrological processes such as evapotranspiration, soil-surface temperature, energy balance, and snowmelt. Field measures of Rli and Rlo are extremely rare except for a few sites and experimental watersheds. Many parameterization schemes were proposed in order to model Rli and Rlo by using easily available meteorological observations such as air temperature, relative humidity, incoming solar radiation and cloud cover.

In this work 10 methods of parameterizing clear sky radiation for the estimation of Rli and Rlo were integrated in the GIS ...


Assessment Of Policies For Low-Carbon Agriculture By Means Of Multi-Agent Simulation, Eygeny Latynskiy, Thomas Berger, Christian Troost Jun 2014

Assessment Of Policies For Low-Carbon Agriculture By Means Of Multi-Agent Simulation, Eygeny Latynskiy, Thomas Berger, Christian Troost

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Agriculture and agriculture-inflicted land use change is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reducing excessive deforestation and intensification of agricultural land use and consequently reducing associated GHG emissions is an important pathway of transition to a global low-carbon economy. Adoption of low-carbon agricultural systems and practices requires setting appropriate economic incentives for land users through smart policy instruments. For effective implementation of such instruments integrated ex-ante policy assessments are crucial. In this article we discuss and illustrate the benefits and potentials of applying multi-agent system models for the assessment of low-carbon policies and technologies. As an empirical example ...


Understanding Regime Shift In Land Systems With System Dynamics, Zhanli Sun, Daniel Müller Jun 2014

Understanding Regime Shift In Land Systems With System Dynamics, Zhanli Sun, Daniel Müller

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Land system change has major consequences for climate change, biodiversity and ecosystem services, and is central to the debate of sustainable development. Land policies aimed at guiding land system towards sustainable pathways need to be informed by better understanding of land system change, and often rely on the forecasting of future land system change. For example, initiatives of Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) provide financial incentives to developing countries in tropical regions in exchange for a reduction of carbon emission from land system compared to business-as-usual. REDD+ schemes therefore rely on predictions of future land use without ...


Innovative Techniques For Quantitative Scenarios In Energy And Environmental Research: A Review, Evelina Trutnevyte, Célene Guivarch Jun 2014

Innovative Techniques For Quantitative Scenarios In Energy And Environmental Research: A Review, Evelina Trutnevyte, Célene Guivarch

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Quantitative scenarios form the core of the future analysis in the energy, climate and other environment-related fields. A growing number of researchers worldwide start using innovative techniques for developing, analysing and choosing quantitative scenarios. Some of these techniques involve a large number of scenarios. Different rationales motivate these strands of research: better system understanding, uncertainty analysis, development of robust strategies, selection of a small set of scenarios, ability to link storylines with quantitative scenarios and other. These techniques are argued to provide both novel research insights and policy-relevant scenario exercises. A workshop, organised by UCL Energy Institute and Cired, on ...


Qualitative Reasoning Models To Summarize And Compare Metapopulation Theories, Isabella Gontijo Sá-Leão, Adriano Souza, Fernando Goulart, Paulo Salles Jun 2014

Qualitative Reasoning Models To Summarize And Compare Metapopulation Theories, Isabella Gontijo Sá-Leão, Adriano Souza, Fernando Goulart, Paulo Salles

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A better understanding of population dynamics is needed in the face of accelerating changes and modifications of natural landscapes. Qualitative Reasoning based models have been considered as a tool for integration and exploration of conceptual knowledge in ecological systems and population dynamics. The objective of the present work is to develop a set of qualitative models in order to capture, formalize, summarize, and compare knowledge about different approaches to metapopulation theory. Three types of approaches were modelled: 1) the classical concepts developed by Levins; 2) Pulliam's view on source and sink populations; and 3) an integrated model of conservation ...


Linking Governance Storylines With The D-Expanse Model To Explore The Power System Transition Pathways, Evelina Trutnevyte Jun 2014

Linking Governance Storylines With The D-Expanse Model To Explore The Power System Transition Pathways, Evelina Trutnevyte

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In 2008 United Kingdom adopted an ambitious target to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050, compared to the levels of 1990. This is an unprecedented challenge to the power sector and multiple energy-environment-economic modeling activities have been undertaken to inform the energy policy to deliver this low-carbon transition. The role of governance, choices and strategies of the key actors is increasingly acknowledged as an influential determinant of such transition, but traditional energy-environment-economic models can hardly analyze these aspects. This paper proposes a methodological approach to integrating the governance aspects into energy-environment-economic modeling. In the Realizing Transition Pathways ...


State And Trends In Mobile Observation Applications, Denis Havlik, Gerald Schimak Jun 2014

State And Trends In Mobile Observation Applications, Denis Havlik, Gerald Schimak

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The stellar growth of the smartphones and nearly gapless mobile network coverage in urban and suburban areas has widely extended the potential of the citizens' observatories. The possibility to easily record observations made by mobile citizens, and to automatically enrich this information using the built-in and external sensors sounds like a dream come true of the scientists and decision makers alike. However, in 2013 only a tiny portion of the potential users really participated in the citizen observation programs and the usability of the received information is often below expectations. The learning curve is often too high, sensor quality too ...