Computer Engineering Commons^™

A Best-Worst Scaling Model Of Climate Change Abatement By Australian Farmers, Marit E. Kragt, Nikki Dumbrell, Fiona Gibson

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Storing carbon from the atmosphere in terrestrial sinks has been proposed as an important way to mitigate climate change and is a major focus in Australia's climate change policies. Mitigation by changing agricultural practices is seen as a promising way to achieve significant reductions in C02 concentrations. Several policies therefore aim to stimulate farmers to adopt so-called 'carbon farming' practices. However, there is little information about farmers' ability and willingness to adopt carbon farming. We present a best-worst scaling model to analyse farmers' decisions about adopting climate change mitigating practices. Best-worst scaling data was collected through a survey amongst mixed …

Assessing The Transition To A Low-Carbon Economy Using Actor-Based System-Dynamic Models, Dmitry V. Kovalevsky, Klaus Hasselmann

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

For a comprehensive analysis of climate mitigation policies, Integrated Assessment models (IAMs) of the coupled climate-socioeconomic system are needed. However, while there is general agreement on the physics of the climate system, the dynamics of the socioeconomic system is still the subject of considerable controversy. This has become particularly apparent since the recent global financial crisis. To explore the dynamics of the socio-economic system, a family of socio-economic models is proposed that incorporates the various alternative assumptions regarding the behaviour of the different economic actors that govern the evolution of the socio-economic system. The model family needs to be developed …

Integration Of Models For Low Carbon Economy, Getachew F. Belete, Alexey Voinov

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Designing the transition to low carbon economy is a very complex task that touches upon a wide variety of climate-energy-economic systems. We need to explore the various possible climate mitigation scenarios at different temporal and spatial scales. However, due to the diversity of the involved disciplines it is difficult to find one complete and unified modeling approach that works equally well in all those different domains. As a result we have to select 'appropriate' models, which represent only specific aspects of the scenarios and assemble them 'coherently'. In this research we have identified some challenges in integrating multidisciplinary models; and …

Enhancing The Policy Relevance Of Scenarios Through A Dynamic Analytical Approach, Céline Guivarch, Vanessa Schweizer, Julia Rozenberg

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

We present a new dynamic analytical approach for studying scenarios produced by an integrated assessment {IA) model. Our approach involves the analysis of a large number of scenarios, which can better address three principal shortcomings of how uncertainty is traditionally handled in IA scenario studies. The shortcomings are all a result of the prevailing practice of investigating a small number of scenarios and include (1) the ad hoc nature of exploring vast socioeconomic uncertainties with only a small number of scenarios; (2) the conventional representation of alternative scenario typologies as "parallel universes• or "diverging universes•, which provide little insight on …

Global Sensitivity Analysis Of Key Parameters In A Process-Based Sugarcane Growth Model - A Bayesian Approach, Justin Sexton, Yvette Everingham

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

While several statistical methods are available to analyse model sensitivity, their application to complex process-based models is often impractical due to the large number of simulation runs required. A Bayesian approach to global sensitivity analysis can greatly reduce the number of simulation runs required by building an emulator of the model which is less computationally demanding. A Gaussian Emulation Machine (GEM) was used to efficiently assess the sensitivity of key agronomic outputs from the APSIM-Sugar crop model to influential input parameters. The sensitivity of simulated biomass and sucrose at harvest was assessed on 14 parameters representing varietal differences and growth …

Hypothesis Testing For Management: Evolving And Answering Closed Questions Using Multiobjective Visualization, Joseph Kasprzyk, Joseph Guillaume, Joshua Kollat, Chris Danilo

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In order to use models to understand deeply uncertain future conditions, managers must be able to pose and test hypotheses about their management problems. In Iterative Closed Question Methodology (ICQM), a series of closed questions are used to structure thinking about hypotheses while looking beyond a problem's existing modeling representation. Our research is exploring how ICQM can contribute to a framework called Many Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM), which uses multiobjective optimization and ensembles of uncertain future states of the world to create and evaluate robust solutions for environmental management. A visualization software tool; AeroVis, has greatly aided implementation of …

Improved Implicit Stochastic Optimization Technique For Multireservoir Water Systems Under Drought Conditions, Andrea Sulis

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Drought is a creeping phenomenon, making its onset and end difficult to determine. Damages from droughts can exceed those resulting from any other natural hazard, although it is difficult to assign a monetary value to them. In the Mediterranean area a severe drought period occurred over the years 2000-2002 and economic losses from that drought exceeded 250 million euros in Sardinia (Italy) (source: ENAS Regional Water Authority). Currently, technological developments and environmental modelling tools are improving our ability to more effectively manage water supply systems. Models can provide decision makers with better and more timely data and information. In this …

Modelling Biofilm Based Technologies With Activated Sludge Unit Processes: A Short Cut To Performance Simulation?, Noella Jones, Maebh Grace, Eoghan Clifford

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Biofilm-based passive aeration systems (PAS) have attracted recent attention as alternative, energy efficient and low maintenance technologies in the wastewater sector. However the modelling of biofilm-based PAS offers unique challenges for modellers, particularly where new technologies are not easily simulated using existing commercial modelling software. However, if the modeller is concerned only with simulating "macro" plant performance (e.g. key effluent concentrations and cycle analysis) it may be possible to efficiently model these technologies using "surrogate" unit process systems (e.g. using an activated sludge process to model a biofilm process). The pumped flow biofilm reactor (PFBR); a batch biofilm technology, is …

Development Of A Decision Support Tool To Allocate Irrigation Water On Competitive Basis: Application To Kathiraveli Village, Sri Lanka, Tom Le Cerf, Muhammed A. Bhuiyan

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper focuses specifically on the irrigation field and water supply tanks for ways to improve efficiency of water use and increase the resilience to climatic variability. The purpose of this paper is to develop an excel-based water balance model that will allow the maximum cropping area be planted in the upcoming agricultural season. The model consists of three modules: a crop water requirement calculator that allows the water requirements of specific crops to be compared, a water tank balance model, and a model which simulates the storage in the permanent wetland attached to the irrigation tank. The hydrological computation …

Linking A Modified Epic-Based Plant Growth Model (Upgm) With A Component-Based Watershed Model (Ages-W), Gregory S. Mcmaster, James C. Ascough Ii, Debora A. Edmunds, Olaf David, Larry E. Wagner, Fred A. Fox, Robert H. Erskine, Holm Kipka, Timothy R. Green

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Agricultural models and decision support systems (DSS) for assessing water use and management are increasingly being applied to diverse geographic regions at different scales. This requires models that can simulate different crops, however, very few plant growth models are available that "easily" can simulate the growth of many common and alternative crops. One option available is a suite of plant growth models based on the original plant growth model used in EPIC (Erosion Productivity Index Calculator). Various versions of the original EPIC plant growth model have been used in other agroecosystem models such as the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS), …

Agroecosystem-Watershed (Ages-W) Model Delineation And Scaling, Timothy R. Green, Robert H. Erskine, James C. Ascough Ii, Bruce Vandenberg, Björn Pfennig, Holm Kipka, Olaf David, Micheal L. Coleman

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Water movement and storage within an agricultural watershed can be simulated at different spatial resolutions of land areas or hydrological response units (HRUs). Interactions between HRUs in space and time vary with the HRU sizes, such that natural scaling relationships are confounded with the simulation scales. Scaling concepts can be tested using the AgroEcoSystem­ Watershed (AgES-W) model with different resolutions of HRUs. Here, we delineated a 56-ha agricultural watershed in northern Colorado, USA farmed primarily under a wheat-fallow rotation. Factors used to distinguish HRUs included topography (surface flow paths), land use (crop strips and native grass), and mapped soil units …

Dynamic Feedback Between Land Use And Hydrology For Ecosystem Services Assessment, Seleshi Getahun Yalew, Tobias Pilz, Christian Schweitzer, Stefan Liersch, Johannes Van Der Kwast, Marloes L. Mul, Ann Van Griensven, Pieter Van Der Zaag

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Ecosystem services assessment requires an integrated approach, as it is influenced by elements such as climate, hydrology and socio-economics, which in turn influence each other. However, there are few studies that integrate these elements in order to assess ecosystem services. Absence of integrated approach to modelling hydrological and land-use changes, for instance, often oversights the dynamic feedback between the two processes. Dynamic changes in land-use should be fed into hydrological models and vice-versa at each time-step for a more realistic representation. In this study, this approach is demonstrated with a case study of the uThukela catchment, South Africa. There is …

Challenges/Advances In Distributed Watershed Modeling: A Review And Application Of The Agroecosystem-Watershed (Ages-W) Model, James C. Ascough Ii, Timothy R. Green, Olaf David, Holm Kipka, Gregory S. Mcmaster, Manfred Fink, Peter Krause, Sven Kralisch

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Progress in the understanding of physical, chemical, and biological processes influencing water quality, coupled with advances in the collection and analysis of hydrologic data, provide opportunities for significant innovations in the manner and level with which watershed-scale processes may be quantified and modeled. This paper first provides a brief review of current challenges and advances in distributed watershed modeling including quantifying and coping with the uncertainty, data availability, influence of data resolution and scaling issues, and the use of environmental modeling frameworks that help maintain model modularity, reusability, and interoperability (or compatibility). Important findings and observed trends from this work …

A Decision Support System Approach For Identifying Poliutant Source For Optimization Of Beneficial Management Practices Scenario Modelling In Lake Winnipeg Watersheds, Isaac Wong, Luis Leon, Jason Vanrobaeys, Craig Mccrimmon, Phil Fong

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) results can be used to source trace loading "hotspots• for optimally locating beneficial management practices (BMP). It is possible to trace upstream and compute the relative contribution of each sub-basin to a point of interest, accounting for in-stream processes, reservoirs and point sources. A decision support system (DSS) framework was developed to run SWAT, perform the otherwise tedious process of source tracing "hotspots" and to optimize BMP locations. The "Crop to Hay- land use change BMP scenario was applied in an attempt to reduce annual loadings of total phosphorus (TP) for three Lake …

Assessment Of Policies For Low-Carbon Agriculture By Means Of Multi-Agent Simulation, Eygeny Latynskiy, Thomas Berger, Christian Troost

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Agriculture and agriculture-inflicted land use change is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reducing excessive deforestation and intensification of agricultural land use and consequently reducing associated GHG emissions is an important pathway of transition to a global low-carbon economy. Adoption of low-carbon agricultural systems and practices requires setting appropriate economic incentives for land users through smart policy instruments. For effective implementation of such instruments integrated ex-ante policy assessments are crucial. In this article we discuss and illustrate the benefits and potentials of applying multi-agent system models for the assessment of low-carbon policies and technologies. As an empirical example …

Empirical Agent-Based Modelling Of Everyday Pro­Environmental Behaviours At Work, Gary Polhill, Tony Craig, Amparo Alonso-Betanzos, Noelia Sanchez-Maroño, Óscar Fontenla-Romero, Adina Dumitru, Mirilia Bonnes, Marini Bonaiuto, Giuseppe Carrus, Ferdinando Fornara, Fridanna Maricchiolo, Linda Steg, Angela Ruepert, Kees Kaizer, Ricardo García-Mira

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

We report on agent-based modelling work in the LOCAW project (Low Carbon at Work: Modelling Agents and Organisations to Achieve Transition to a Low Carbon Europe). The project explored the effectiveness of various backcasting scenarios conducted with case study organisations in bringing about pro-environmental change in the workforce in the domains of transport, energy use and waste. The model used qualitative representations of workspaces in formalising each scenario, and decision trees learned from questionnaire responses to represent decision-making. We describe the process by which the decision trees were constructed, noting that the use of decision trees in agent-based models requires …

Understanding Regime Shift In Land Systems With System Dynamics, Zhanli Sun, Daniel Müller

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Land system change has major consequences for climate change, biodiversity and ecosystem services, and is central to the debate of sustainable development. Land policies aimed at guiding land system towards sustainable pathways need to be informed by better understanding of land system change, and often rely on the forecasting of future land system change. For example, initiatives of Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) provide financial incentives to developing countries in tropical regions in exchange for a reduction of carbon emission from land system compared to business-as-usual. REDD+ schemes therefore rely on predictions of future land use without …

Linking Governance Storylines With The D-Expanse Model To Explore The Power System Transition Pathways, Evelina Trutnevyte

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In 2008 United Kingdom adopted an ambitious target to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050, compared to the levels of 1990. This is an unprecedented challenge to the power sector and multiple energy-environment-economic modeling activities have been undertaken to inform the energy policy to deliver this low-carbon transition. The role of governance, choices and strategies of the key actors is increasingly acknowledged as an influential determinant of such transition, but traditional energy-environment-economic models can hardly analyze these aspects. This paper proposes a methodological approach to integrating the governance aspects into energy-environment-economic modeling. In the Realizing Transition Pathways …

Innovative Techniques For Quantitative Scenarios In Energy And Environmental Research: A Review, Evelina Trutnevyte, Célene Guivarch

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Quantitative scenarios form the core of the future analysis in the energy, climate and other environment-related fields. A growing number of researchers worldwide start using innovative techniques for developing, analysing and choosing quantitative scenarios. Some of these techniques involve a large number of scenarios. Different rationales motivate these strands of research: better system understanding, uncertainty analysis, development of robust strategies, selection of a small set of scenarios, ability to link storylines with quantitative scenarios and other. These techniques are argued to provide both novel research insights and policy-relevant scenario exercises. A workshop, organised by UCL Energy Institute and Cired, on …

Qualitative Reasoning Models To Summarize And Compare Metapopulation Theories, Isabella Gontijo Sá-Leão, Adriano Souza, Fernando Goulart, Paulo Salles

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A better understanding of population dynamics is needed in the face of accelerating changes and modifications of natural landscapes. Qualitative Reasoning based models have been considered as a tool for integration and exploration of conceptual knowledge in ecological systems and population dynamics. The objective of the present work is to develop a set of qualitative models in order to capture, formalize, summarize, and compare knowledge about different approaches to metapopulation theory. Three types of approaches were modelled: 1) the classical concepts developed by Levins; 2) Pulliam's view on source and sink populations; and 3) an integrated model of conservation, based …

Integrated Modelling Of Social-Ecological Systems: The Maelia High-Resolution Multi-Agent Platform To Deal With Water Scarcity Problems, Olivier Therond, Christophe Sibertin-Blanc, Romain Lardy, Benoit Gaudou, Maud Balestrat, Yi Hong, Thomas Louail, Van Bai Nguyen, David Panzoli, José-Miguel Sanchez-Perez, Sabine Sauvage, Patrick Taillandier, Maroussia Vavasseur, Pierre Mazzega

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Sustainable water resource management is typical of environmental management problems emerging from complex social-ecological systems. It deeply depends upon water user strategies, land use management and water governance systems. MAELIA, a "policy issue" modelling platform, allows performing integrated assessment at watershed level of a wide range of scenarios regarding water and land use management strategies in combination with global changes. It has been developed through a strong analysis of different French water management situations and an inductive modelling process. It allows representing dynamic interactions between human activities (farming practices), ecological processes (hydrology and crop growth), and governance systems (water regulations …

Testing Site-Specific Parameterizations Of Longwave Radiation Integrated In A Gis-Based Hydrological Model, Giuseppe Formetta, Olaf David, Riccardo Rigon

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Incoming (Rli) and outgoing (Rlo) longwave atmospheric radiation are very important components of the global radiation balance. They influence many hydrological processes such as evapotranspiration, soil-surface temperature, energy balance, and snowmelt. Field measures of Rli and Rlo are extremely rare except for a few sites and experimental watersheds. Many parameterization schemes were proposed in order to model Rli and Rlo by using easily available meteorological observations such as air temperature, relative humidity, incoming solar radiation and cloud cover.

In this work 10 methods of parameterizing clear sky radiation for the estimation of Rli and Rlo were integrated in the GIS …

Trade-Offs Of Biogas Production: Comparing Crop Ro­Tations Under Different Climate Scenarios, Sven Lautenbach, Martin Volk, Micheal Strauch, Gerald Whittaker, Ralf Seppelt

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

While increasing biofuel production is worldwide on the political agenda, concerns about the involved trade-offs are on the rise. However, the quantification of these trade-offs is typically based on the comparison of a limited number of plausible alternatives. We extended the analysis by applying a multi-objective genetic algorithm to estimate the set of Pareto optimal solutions which de­scribe the trade-offs between the objectives. The Pareto solutions represent the (estimated) best op­tions given the model and the specified control options. Our analysis studied food and fodder based crop rotations and two alternative biogas crop production schemes: a corn based production scheme …

An R Package For Implementing Multiple Evapotranspiration Formulations, Danlu Guo, Seth Westra, Holger R. Maier

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The use of multiple evapotranspiration (ET) models is critical for exploring the ambiguity in the representations of ET processes. Although ensemble ET models are increasingly used to address this ambiguity, practical issues include: 1) the diversity of process representations, which require different input data and constants; 2) the diversity of nomenclature, terminology and units used in the literature; and 3) the complexity of some formulations, requiring significant time for coding and leading to potential user errors. We describe an R package that estimates both actual and potential ET from 17 well-known formulations. Results are presented as summary text and plots, …

Using Locally Distributed Computing To Aid Water Quality Modelling, Saurav Kumar, Adil N. Godrej, Thomas J. Grizzard

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Watershed managers and other experts frequently use water quality models to manage and study watershed-waterbody systems. Many modern water quality models have become increasingly complex and require significant amount of computational resources to execute. This situation is further exacerbated by linked models, which require sequential execution of multiple models to simulate the entire system, along with data conversion to transfer data between the linked models. Many tasks, such as evaluations of the robustness of the modelling system through sensitivity analysis and applications of water quality models as a tool to aid decision-making, require multiple executions of water quality models and …

Characterizing Spatial Random Fields Through A Bayesian Inverse Modeling Framework And The High Throughput Computing Software - Htcondor, Carlos Osorio-Murillo, Daniel P. Ames, Heather Frystacky, Yoram Rubin

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Spatial Random Fields (SRFs) are used to characterize the behavior of variables which are difficult to measure everywhere. In the case of hydraulic conductivity used in groundwater models, heterogeneity can be modeled through structural parameters of the random fields – parameters that define the field’s spatial distribution. Characterization of these structural parameters using a stochastic inverse method requires the evaluation of thousands of potential realizations of the SRF which is a time consuming and challenging task – reducing the adoption of stochastic models. To address this issue, this paper presents the integration of high throughput computing using HTCondor with the …

Parallel Simulation Of Environmental Phenomena, Ralf Denzer, Peter Fitch, Ioannis N. Athanasiadis, Daniel P. Ames

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper discusses the current situation with respect to the parallel simulation of environmental phenomena. It is not based on a complete and thorough investigation of the state-of- the-art in this domain and is more driven by observations, experiences and ideas of the four contributors who see the need to raise awareness towards a more systematic approach in the future. It is meant as a discussion paper to stimulate a more systematic approach towards parallel simulation in the environmental domain. While examples are mostly taken from hydrology, they are only used as illustration of a generic situation. The section on …

Software Engineering For Scientific Application: Effort Report On The Community Land Model Within The Earth System Modeling Framework, Dali Wang, Yang Xu

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

One key factor in the improved understanding of earth system science is the development and improvement of high fidelity models. Along with the deeper understanding of earth system processes, the software complexity of those modelling systems becomes a barrier for further rapid model improvements and validation. In this paper, we present our experience on better understanding of the community land model (CLM) within an earth system modeling framework. After the science and software background of CLM, we represent three groups of CLM software engineering practices, which aim to 1) better understand the software system for rapid software system development on …

Balancing Externalities And Industrial Costs In Air Quality Planning, Claudio Carnevale, Giorgio Guariso, Enrico Pisoni, Marialuisa Volta

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

When adopting regional plans aimed at improving air quality, environmental authorities are often faced with the relevant costs that the adoption of abatement measures implies. On the other hand, scientific literature has well documented damages due to air pollution impact on human health and ecosystems. This paper proposes a tool that allows balancing these two viewpoints by defining the efficient set of measures in a multi-objective perspective. Despite both external (health related) and internal (industrial/emission abatement related) costs can be measured in the same unit, namely money, it appears unacceptable to add them together as in a cost-benefit analysis, since …

Estimation Of Pahs Concentration Fields In An Urban Area By Means Of Support Vector Machines, Armando Pelliccioni, Andrea Cristofari, Camillo Silibello, Monica Gherardi, Angelo Cecinato, Mafalda Lamberti

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Epidemiological studies about health effects of air quality are often based on data inferred by monitoring stations, and the issue of constructing pollutants exposure maps is crucial for improving such studies. The study about Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) exposure in urban areas is the aim of the EXPAH LIFE+ Project, so an integrated approach, based on measurements and modeling techniques, has been applied to simulate PAHs concentration in the urban area of Rome in one year period (June 2011 - May 2012). Support Vector Machines (SVMs) have been applied to forecast PAHs concentrations starting from actual measurements. After a feature …