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- Tides (5)
- Uncertainty -- Mathematical models (5)
- Hydrologic models (4)
- Storm surges (4)
- Columbia River Estuary (Or. and Wash.) (3)
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- North Atlantic Ocean -- Climate (3)
- North Atlantic oscillation -- Environmental aspects (3)
- Streamflow -- Forecasting (3)
- Internal waves (2)
- Oceanography -- Columbia River Estuary (Or. and Wash.) -- Mathematical models (2)
- Tidal currents -- Flow estimation -- Mathematical models (2)
- Bayesian statistical decision theory -- Applications to hydrology (1)
- Columbia River -- Tidal currents (1)
- Estuaries -- Remote sensing (1)
- Estuarine hydrology (1)
- Fluid dynamics (1)
- Hydrologic models -- Data processing (1)
- Hydrologic models -- Evaluation (1)
- Hydrologic models -- Mathematical optimization (1)
- Hydrology -- Data processing (1)
- Hydrology -- Measurement -- Technological innovations (1)
- Moselle River -- Streamflow -- Forecasting (1)
- Ocean currents (1)
- Ocean currents -- research (1)
- Ocean waves (1)
- Ocean-atmosphere interaction (1)
- Oceanography -- Mathematical models (1)
- San Francisco Bay Watershed (Calif.) -- Sediment transport -- Analysis (1)
- San Francisco Bay Watershed (Calif.) -- Sediment transport -- History (1)
- Streamflow -- Mathematical modeling (1)
Articles 1 - 21 of 21
Full-Text Articles in Hydraulic Engineering
Analytical And Field Verification Of A 3d Hydrodynamic And Water Quality Numerical Scheme Based On The 2d Formulation In Ce-Qual-W2, Hussein Ali Mahdi Al-Zubaidi, Scott A. Wells
Analytical And Field Verification Of A 3d Hydrodynamic And Water Quality Numerical Scheme Based On The 2d Formulation In Ce-Qual-W2, Hussein Ali Mahdi Al-Zubaidi, Scott A. Wells
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
A new 3D hydrodynamic model was developed to simulate water quality transport in surface waterbodies. The governing equations are the continuity equation, free surface equation, momentum equation and transport equation. The 2D numerical scheme of CE-QUAL-W2 was expanded in three dimensions and modified to solve for the free surface elevation. A time splitting technique was employed to solve the momentum and transport equation. The numerical formulation of the 3D scheme used a novel solution, which resulted in a tri-diagonal matrix form for solving the free surface equation rather than a more computationally intensive penta-diagonal matrix solution. In addition, the hydrodynamic …
Global Observations Of Fine-Scale Ocean Surface Topography With The Surface Water And Ocean Topography (Swot) Mission, Rosemary Morrow, Lee-Lueng Fu, Fabrice Ardhuin, Mounir Benkiran, Bertrand Chapron, Emmanuel Cosme, Francesco D’Ovidio, J. Thomas Farrar, Sarah T. Gille, Guillaume Lapeyre, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Ananda Pascual, Aurélien Ponte, Bo Qiu, Nicolas Rascle, Clement Ubelmann, Jinbo Wang, Edward Zaron
Global Observations Of Fine-Scale Ocean Surface Topography With The Surface Water And Ocean Topography (Swot) Mission, Rosemary Morrow, Lee-Lueng Fu, Fabrice Ardhuin, Mounir Benkiran, Bertrand Chapron, Emmanuel Cosme, Francesco D’Ovidio, J. Thomas Farrar, Sarah T. Gille, Guillaume Lapeyre, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Ananda Pascual, Aurélien Ponte, Bo Qiu, Nicolas Rascle, Clement Ubelmann, Jinbo Wang, Edward Zaron
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
The future international Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) Mission, planned for launch in 2021, will make high-resolution 2D observations of sea-surface height using SAR radar interferometric techniques. SWOT will map the global and coastal oceans up to 77.6 latitude every 21 days over a swath of 120 km (20 km nadir gap). Today’s 2D mapped altimeter data can resolve ocean scales of 150 km wavelength whereas the SWOT measurement will extend our 2D observations down to 15–30 km, depending on sea state. SWOT will offer new opportunities to observe the oceanic dynamic processes at scales that are important in …
The Quest For Model Uncertainty Quantification: A Hybrid Ensemble And Variational Data Assimilation Framework, Peyman Abbaszadeh, Hamid Moradkhani, Dacian Daescu
The Quest For Model Uncertainty Quantification: A Hybrid Ensemble And Variational Data Assimilation Framework, Peyman Abbaszadeh, Hamid Moradkhani, Dacian Daescu
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
This article presents a novel approach to couple a deterministic four‐dimensional variational (4DVAR) assimilation method with the particle filter (PF) ensemble data assimilation system, to produce a robust approach for dual‐state‐parameter estimation. In our proposed method, the Hybrid Ensemble and Variational Data Assimilation framework for Environmental systems (HEAVEN), we characterize the model structural uncertainty in addition to model parameter and input uncertainties. The sequential PF is formulated within the 4DVAR system to design a computationally efficient feedback mechanism throughout the assimilation period. In this framework, the 4DVAR optimization produces the maximum a posteriori estimate of state variables at the beginning …
Archival Water-Level Measurements: Recovering Historical Data To Help Design For The Future, Stefan A. Talke, David A. Jay
Archival Water-Level Measurements: Recovering Historical Data To Help Design For The Future, Stefan A. Talke, David A. Jay
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
Improving methods of assessing risk and designing structures to withstand extreme events and changing sea levels is a vital component of strategies for reducing risk to coastal resources and assets. An obvious approach to improving the statistical robustness of risk assessments is to increase the number, time span, and quality of available water-level data sets, and to assess trends and non-stationarity. In this report we discuss efforts to recover, digitize, and analyze hundreds of station-years of lost-and-forgotten tide data and other water-level measurements that extend back to the early 19th century. To date, more than 6,500 station-years of previously lost …
Remote Measurements Of Tides And River Slope Using An Airborne Lidar Instrument, Austin S. Hudson, Stefan A. Talke, Ruth Branch, Chris Chickadel, Gordon Farquharson, Andrew Jessup
Remote Measurements Of Tides And River Slope Using An Airborne Lidar Instrument, Austin S. Hudson, Stefan A. Talke, Ruth Branch, Chris Chickadel, Gordon Farquharson, Andrew Jessup
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
Tides and river slope are fundamental characteristics of estuaries, but they are usually undersampled due to deficiencies in the spatial coverage of water level measurements. This study aims to address this issue by investigating the use of airborne lidar measurements to study tidal statistics and river slope in the Columbia River estuary. Eight plane transects over a 12-h period yield at least eight independent measurements of water level at 2.5-km increments over a 65-km stretch of the estuary. These data are fit to a sinusoidal curve and the results are compared to seven in situ gauges. In situ– and lidar-based …
Relative Sea-Level Trends In New York City During The Past 1500 Years, Andrew C. Kemp, Troy D. Hill, Christopher H. Vane, Niamh Cahill, Philip M. Orton, Stefan A. Talke, Andrew C. Parnell, Kelsey Sanborn, Ellen K. Hartig
Relative Sea-Level Trends In New York City During The Past 1500 Years, Andrew C. Kemp, Troy D. Hill, Christopher H. Vane, Niamh Cahill, Philip M. Orton, Stefan A. Talke, Andrew C. Parnell, Kelsey Sanborn, Ellen K. Hartig
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
New York City (NYC) is threatened by 21st-century relative sea-level (RSL) rise because it will experience a trend that exceeds the global mean and has high concentrations of low-lying infrastructure and socioeconomic activity. To provide a long-term context for anticipated trends, we reconstructed RSL change during the past ~1500 years using a core of salt-marsh sediment from Pelham Bay in The Bronx. Foraminifera and bulk-sediment δ13C values were used as sea-level indicators. The history of sediment accumulation was established by radiocarbon dating and recognition of pollution and land-use trends of known age in down-core elemental, isotopic, and pollen …
A Validated Tropical-Extratropical Flood Hazard Assessment For New York Harbor, Philip M. Orton, T. M. Hall, Stefan A. Talke, Alan F. Blumberg, Nickitas Georgas, S. Vinogradov
A Validated Tropical-Extratropical Flood Hazard Assessment For New York Harbor, Philip M. Orton, T. M. Hall, Stefan A. Talke, Alan F. Blumberg, Nickitas Georgas, S. Vinogradov
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
Recent studies of flood risk at New York Harbor (NYH) have shown disparate results for the 100 year storm tide, providing an uncertain foundation for the flood mitigation response after Hurricane Sandy. Here we present a flood hazard assessment that improves confidence in our understanding of the region's present-day potential for flooding, by separately including the contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and validating our modeling study at multiple stages against historical observations. The TC assessment is based on a climatology of 606 synthetic storms developed from a statistical-stochastic model of North Atlantic TCs. The ETC assessment …
Estimating River Discharge Using Multiple-Tide Gauges Distributed Along A Channel, Hamed R. Moftakhari, David A. Jay, Stefan Talke
Estimating River Discharge Using Multiple-Tide Gauges Distributed Along A Channel, Hamed R. Moftakhari, David A. Jay, Stefan Talke
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
Reliable estimation of freshwater inflow to the ocean from large tidal rivers is vital for water resources management and climate analyses. Discharge gauging stations are typically located beyond the tidal intrusion reach, such that inputs and losses occurring closer to the ocean are not included. Here, we develop a method of estimating river discharge using multiple gauges and time-dependent tidal statistics determined via wavelet analysis. The Multiple-gauge Tidal Discharge Estimate (MTDE) method is developed using data from the Columbia River and Fraser River estuaries and calibrated against river discharge. Next, we evaluate the general applicability of MTDE by testing an …
Multi-Criteria Evaluation Of Cmip5 Gcms For Climate Change Impact Analysis, Ali Ahmadalipour, Arun Rana, Hamid Moradkhani, Ashish Sharma
Multi-Criteria Evaluation Of Cmip5 Gcms For Climate Change Impact Analysis, Ali Ahmadalipour, Arun Rana, Hamid Moradkhani, Ashish Sharma
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
Climate change is expected to have severe impacts on global hydrological cycle along with food-water-energy nexus. Currently, there are many climate models used in predicting important climatic variables. Though there have been advances in the field, there are still many problems to be resolved related to reliability, uncertainty, and computing needs, among many others. In the present work, we have analyzed performance of 20 different global climate models (GCMs) from Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset over the Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest USA. We demonstrate a statistical multicriteria approach, using univariate and multivariate techniques, …
Recent Progress In Performance Evaluations And Near Real-Time Assessment Of Operational Ocean Products, Fabrice Hernandez, Edward Blockley, Gary B. Brassington, Fraser Davidson, Prasanth Divakaran, Marie Drévillon, Shiro Ishizaki, Marcos Garcia-Sotillo, Patrick J. Hogan, Priidik Lagemaa, Bruno Levier, Matthew Martin, Avichal Mehra, Christopher Mooers, Nicolas Ferry, Andrew Ryan, Charly Regnier, Alistair Sellar, Gregory C. Smith, Sarantis Sofianos, Todd Spindler, Gianluca Volpe, John Wilkin, Edward Zaron, Aijun Zhang
Recent Progress In Performance Evaluations And Near Real-Time Assessment Of Operational Ocean Products, Fabrice Hernandez, Edward Blockley, Gary B. Brassington, Fraser Davidson, Prasanth Divakaran, Marie Drévillon, Shiro Ishizaki, Marcos Garcia-Sotillo, Patrick J. Hogan, Priidik Lagemaa, Bruno Levier, Matthew Martin, Avichal Mehra, Christopher Mooers, Nicolas Ferry, Andrew Ryan, Charly Regnier, Alistair Sellar, Gregory C. Smith, Sarantis Sofianos, Todd Spindler, Gianluca Volpe, John Wilkin, Edward Zaron, Aijun Zhang
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
Operational ocean forecast systems provide routine marine products to an ever-widening community of users and stakeholders. The majority of users need information about the quality and reliability of the products to exploit them fully. Hence, forecast centres have been developing improved methods for evaluating and communicating the quality of their products. Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) OceanView, along with the Copernicus European Marine Core Service and other national and international programmes, has facilitated the development of coordinated validation activities among these centres. New metrics, assessing a wider range of ocean parameters, have been defined and implemented in real-time. An …
Estimation Of Historic Flows And Sediment Loads To San Francisco Bay, 1849 – 2011, Hamed Moftakhari Rostamkhani, David A. Jay, Stefan A. Talke, David H. Schoellhamer
Estimation Of Historic Flows And Sediment Loads To San Francisco Bay, 1849 – 2011, Hamed Moftakhari Rostamkhani, David A. Jay, Stefan A. Talke, David H. Schoellhamer
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
River flow and sediment transport in estuaries influence morphological development over decadal and century time scales, but hydrological and sedimentological records are typically too short to adequately characterize long-term trends. In this study, we recover archival records and apply a rating curve approach to develop the first instrumental estimates of daily delta inflow and sediment loads to San Francisco Bay (1849 – 1929). The total sediment load is constrained using sedimentation/erosion estimated from bathymetric survey data to produce continuous daily sediment transport estimates from 1849 to 1955, the time period prior to sediment load measurements. We estimate that ~55% (45 …
Channel Shallowing As Mitigation Of Coastal Flooding, Philip M. Orton, Stefan A. Talke, David A. Jay, Larry Yin, Alan F. Blumberg, Nickitas Georgas, Haihong Zhao, Hugh J. Roberts, Kytt Macmanus
Channel Shallowing As Mitigation Of Coastal Flooding, Philip M. Orton, Stefan A. Talke, David A. Jay, Larry Yin, Alan F. Blumberg, Nickitas Georgas, Haihong Zhao, Hugh J. Roberts, Kytt Macmanus
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
Here, we demonstrate that reductions in the depth of inlets or estuary channels can be used to reduce or prevent coastal flooding. A validated hydrodynamic model of Jamaica Bay, New York City (NYC), is used to test nature-based adaptation measures in ameliorating flooding for NYC’s two largest historical coastal flood events. In addition to control runs with modern bathymetry, three altered landscape scenarios are tested: (1) increasing the area of wetlands to their 1879 footprint and bathymetry, but leaving deep shipping channels unaltered; (2) shallowing all areas deeper than 2 m in the bay to be 2 m below Mean …
On The Assessment Of Reliability In Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Event Forecasting, Caleb Matthew Dechant, Hamid Moradkhani
On The Assessment Of Reliability In Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Event Forecasting, Caleb Matthew Dechant, Hamid Moradkhani
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
Probabilistic forecasts are commonly used to communicate uncertainty in the occurrence of hydrometeorological events. Although probabilistic forecasting is common, conventional methods for assessing the reliability of these forecasts are approximate. Among the most common methods for assessing reliability, the decomposed Brier Score and Reliability Diagram treat an observed string of events as samples from multiple Binomial distributions, but this is an approximation of the forecast reliability, leading to unnecessary loss of information. This article suggests testing the hypothesis of reliability via the Poisson-Binomial distribution, which is a generalized solution to the Binomial distribution, providing a more accurate model of the …
Multimodal Internal Waves Generated Over A Subcritical Ridge: Impact Of The Upper-Ocean Stratification, Xie Jieshuo, Jiayi Pan, David A. Jay
Multimodal Internal Waves Generated Over A Subcritical Ridge: Impact Of The Upper-Ocean Stratification, Xie Jieshuo, Jiayi Pan, David A. Jay
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
Interaction of barotropic tides with subsurface topography is vital to ocean mixing. Yet the behavior of large-amplitude, nonlinear, internal solitary waves (ISWs) that can cause strong mixing remains poorly understood, especially that of higher-mode and multimodal internal waves. Therefore, a 2.5-dimensional, nonhydrostatic model with adjustable vertical resolution was developed to investigate effects of upper-ocean stratification on tidally induced multimodal internal waves and to show how they are generated by the subcritical ridge where only upward-propagating internal wave beams (IWBs) are present. The effects of the stratification on properties and characteristics of the excited IWBs and on the energy partition of …
The Skill Of Seasonal Ensemble Low-Flow Forecasts In The Moselle River For Three Different Hydrological Models, Mehmet C. Demirel, Martijn Booij, Arjen Hoekstra
The Skill Of Seasonal Ensemble Low-Flow Forecasts In The Moselle River For Three Different Hydrological Models, Mehmet C. Demirel, Martijn Booij, Arjen Hoekstra
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
This paper investigates the skill of 90-day low-flow forecasts using two conceptual hydrological models and one data-driven model based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for the Moselle River. The three models, i.e. HBV, GR4J and ANN-Ensemble (ANN-E), all use forecasted meteorological inputs (precipitation P and potential evapotranspiration PET), whereby we employ ensemble seasonal meteorological forecasts. We compared low-flow forecasts for five different cases of seasonal meteorological forcing: (1) ensemble P and PET forecasts; (2) ensemble P forecasts and observed climate mean PET; (3) observed climate mean P and ensemble PET forecasts; (4) observed climate mean P and PET and (5) …
Tides And The Swot Mission: Transition From Science Definition Team To Science Team, Brian K. Arbic, Florent Lyard, Aurelien Ponte, Richard D. Ray, James G. Richman, Jay F. Shriver, Edward Zaron, Zhongxiang Zhao
Tides And The Swot Mission: Transition From Science Definition Team To Science Team, Brian K. Arbic, Florent Lyard, Aurelien Ponte, Richard D. Ray, James G. Richman, Jay F. Shriver, Edward Zaron, Zhongxiang Zhao
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
As the SWOT wide-swath satellite altimeter mission transitions from the Science Definition Team to the Science Team, it is an opportune time to review the progress that has been made with respect to tides, and the work remaining to be done. As with previous altimeter missions, tides present both an opportunity and a challenge for the SWOT mission. The TOPEX/Jason class of altimeters have allowed high-accuracy mapping of open-ocean barotropic tides over their coverage latitudes (66°S to 66°N), but the inter-track spacing of these missions (~150 km) has limited their ability to map smaller-scale features such as shelf tides, coastal …
Sensitivity Of Columbia Basin Runoff To Long-Term Changes In Multi-Model Cmip5 Precipitation Simulations, Mehmet Demirel, Hamid Moradkhani
Sensitivity Of Columbia Basin Runoff To Long-Term Changes In Multi-Model Cmip5 Precipitation Simulations, Mehmet Demirel, Hamid Moradkhani
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
In this study, we used precipitation elasticity index of streamflow, to reflect on the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in future precipitation. We estimated precipitation elasticity of streamflow from: (1) simulated streamflow by the VIC model using observed precipitation for the current climate (1963–2003); (2) simulated streamflow by the VIC model using simulated precipitation from 10 GCM - CMIP5 dataset for the future climate (2010–2099) including two different pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two different downscaled products (BCSD and MACA). The hydrological model was calibrated at 1/16 latitude-longitude resolution and the simulated streamflow was routed to the subbasin outlets of …
The Effect Of Multi-Model Averaging Of Climate Model Outputs On The Seasonality Of Rainfall Over The Columbia River Basin, Mehmet Demirel, Arun Rana, Hamid Moradkhani
The Effect Of Multi-Model Averaging Of Climate Model Outputs On The Seasonality Of Rainfall Over The Columbia River Basin, Mehmet Demirel, Arun Rana, Hamid Moradkhani
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
The rainfall seasonality index is the measure of precipitation distribution throughout the seasonal cycle. The aim of this study is to compare the effect of different multi-model averaging methods on the rainfall seasonality index at each 1/16 latitude-longitude cells covering the Columbia River Basin. In accordance with the same, ten different climate model outputs are selected from 45 available climate models from CMIP5 dataset. The reanalysis precipitation data is used to estimate the errors in rainfall seasonality for the climate model outputs. The inverse variance method and statistical multi criteria analysis (SMCA) method were used to estimate the weights for …
Impacts Of Climate Change On The Seasonality Of Extremes In The Columbia River Basin, Mehmet Demirel, Hamid Moradkhani
Impacts Of Climate Change On The Seasonality Of Extremes In The Columbia River Basin, Mehmet Demirel, Hamid Moradkhani
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
The impacts of climate change on the seasonality of extremes i.e. both high and low flows in the Columbia River basin were analyzed using three seasonality indices, namely the seasonality ratio (SR), weighted mean occurrence day (WMOD) and weighted persistence (WP). These indices reflect the streamflow regime, timing and variability in timing of extreme events respectively. The three indices were estimated from: (1) observed streamflow; (2) simulated streamflow by the VIC model using simulated inputs from ten combinations of bias corrected and downscaled CMIP5 inputs for the current climate (1979–2005); (3) simulated streamflow using simulated inputs from ten combinations of …
Modeling Historic Columbia River Flood Impacts, Lumas Helaire, Andrew Mahedy, Stefan A. Talke, David A. Jay
Modeling Historic Columbia River Flood Impacts, Lumas Helaire, Andrew Mahedy, Stefan A. Talke, David A. Jay
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
The Lower Columbia River Estuary (LCRE) has undergone extensive modifications since the 19th century. Construction of dams, installation of jetties and dikes, dredging of the navigation channel and filling in of tidal wetlands have all contributed significantly to alterations in tidal dynamics and the flow regime, with consequences for habitat inundation and salinity intrusion. In this talk we discuss the development and implementation of a 19th century flow model for the LCRE, using a digital elevation model based on historic bathymetry. The model has been calibrated with recently rediscovered and digitized tide data from the 19th century. …
Toward Reduction Of Model Uncertainty: Integration Of Bayesian Model Averaging And Data Assimilation, Mark A. Parrish, Hamid Moradkhani, Caleb Matthew Dechant
Toward Reduction Of Model Uncertainty: Integration Of Bayesian Model Averaging And Data Assimilation, Mark A. Parrish, Hamid Moradkhani, Caleb Matthew Dechant
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
Multimodeling in hydrologic forecasting has proved to improve upon the systematic bias and general limitations of a single model. This is typically done by establishing a new model as a linear combination or a weighted average of several models with weights on the basis of individual model performance in previous time steps. The most commonly used multimodeling method, Bayesian model averaging (BMA), assumes a fixed probability distribution around individual models' forecast in establishing the prior and uses a calibration period to determine static weights for each individual model. More recent work has focused on a sequential Bayesian model selection technique …