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Full-Text Articles in Engineering

Future Changes Of Hydroclimatic Extremes In Western North America Using A Large Ensemble: The Role Of Internal Variability, Mohammad Hasan Mahmoudi Apr 2019

Future Changes Of Hydroclimatic Extremes In Western North America Using A Large Ensemble: The Role Of Internal Variability, Mohammad Hasan Mahmoudi

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme events in Western North America (WNA) can cause significant socioeconomic problems and threaten existing infrastructure. In this study we analyze the impacts of climate change on hydroclimatic extremes and assess the role of internal variability over WNA, which collectively drain an area of about 1 million km2. We used gridded observations and downscaled precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature from seven General Circulation Models (GCMs) that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and a large ensemble of CanESM2 model simulations (CanESM2-LE; 50 members) for this analysis. Spatial and ...


Modelling Of Future Flood Risk Across Canada Under Climate Change, Ayushi Gaur Dec 2017

Modelling Of Future Flood Risk Across Canada Under Climate Change, Ayushi Gaur

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Climate change has induced changes in key climate variables and hydrological cycle in Canada. In this study, future runoff projections made by 21 GCMs following four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used as inputs into a macro-scaled hydrodynamic model: CaMa-Flood to simulate 25 km resolution daily streamflow across Canada for historical (1961-2005) and future (2061-2100) time-periods. Future changes in flood-hazard as a consequence of changes in flooding frequencies of historical 100-year and 250-year return period flood events, and changes in the month of occurrence of extreme flows are analyzed. Changes in flood risk at Canada’s 100 most populous cities ...


Uncertainty Modeling In The Assessment Of Climate Change Impacts On Water Resources Management, Sohom Mandal Mar 2017

Uncertainty Modeling In The Assessment Of Climate Change Impacts On Water Resources Management, Sohom Mandal

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Climate change has significant impacts on water resource systems. The objective of this study is to assess climate change impacts on water resource management. The methodology includes (a) the assessment of uncertainty introduced by choice of precipitation downscaling methods; (b) uncertainty assessment and quantification of the impact of climate change on projected streamflow; and (c) uncertainty in and impact of climate change on the management of reservoirs used for hydropower production. The assessment is conducted for two future time periods (2036 to 2065 and 2066 to 2095). The study area, Campbell River basin, British Columbia, Canada, consists of three reservoirs ...


A Physical Scaling Method To Incorporate Regional Physical Characteristics In Future Climatic And Hydrologic Predictions, Abhishek Gaur May 2016

A Physical Scaling Method To Incorporate Regional Physical Characteristics In Future Climatic And Hydrologic Predictions, Abhishek Gaur

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

In this thesis an original Physical Scaling (SP) method for downscaling Global Circulation Model (GCM) based climatic projections has been developed, tested and applied over a study region. The model formulation can take into account regional physical characteristics like land-cover and elevation into the model formulation. A thorough verification of the method and its extension: SP with Surrounding pixel information (SPS) method has been performed and their performance towards downscaling GCM based precipitation, surface temperature and air temperature has been compared with many state-of-the-art downscaling models like Bias Correction Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) method, Statistical DownScaling Method (SDSM) and Generalized Linear ...


A Systems Approach To Modelling The Effects Of Climate Change On Agroforestry: A Case Study In Western Tanzania, Elaine M. Samuel May 2016

A Systems Approach To Modelling The Effects Of Climate Change On Agroforestry: A Case Study In Western Tanzania, Elaine M. Samuel

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Climate change is anticipated to have significant effects on agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa as the magnitude of weather events increase in severity. Smallholder farmers in western Tanzania are potentially vulnerable to climate change impact as crops rely on precipitation as the only source of water. It is prudent to evaluate different modes of agricultural adaptations, such as agroforestry, that these farmers can easily adopt to improve their resiliency to the effects of climate change. System dynamics modelling is a cost-effective tool to simulate the long-term behaviour of agroforestry systems under future climate conditions. Water, Nutrient, and Light Capture in ...


Climate Change Impact On Flood Hazard In The Grand River Basin, Ontario, Canada, Abhishek Gaur Apr 2013

Climate Change Impact On Flood Hazard In The Grand River Basin, Ontario, Canada, Abhishek Gaur

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Rapidly changing climatic conditions across the globe are believed to have an impact on key climate variables and the hydrologic cycle. Changes in magnitude and frequency of peak flow patterns have been noted in rivers worldwide. The associated risk is projected to increase many folds during the 21st century. Therefore, it is necessary to quantify these impacts for effective water resource planning and management in future. Methodology chosen to do so should be able to capture variations in climate variables at fine temporal, spatial and distributional scales. Also, it should be able to cover uncertainties associated with future climatic ...


Application Of A K-Nearest Neighbour Weather Generator For Simulation Of Historical And Future Climate Variables In The Upper Thames River Basin, Leanna M. King Jan 2012

Application Of A K-Nearest Neighbour Weather Generator For Simulation Of Historical And Future Climate Variables In The Upper Thames River Basin, Leanna M. King

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Climate change has the potential to significantly alter the hydrologic cycle, changing the frequency and intensity of precipitation events in an area. It is necessary to quantify these effects to effectively manage water resources in the future. Atmosphere-Ocean coupled Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs), often used in climate change research, have spatial resolutions that are too large to capture the local climate characteristics of a watershed. As a result, several downscaling tools have been developed, including stochastic weather generators. A methodology for the simulation of historical and future climate data using a nonparametric K-Nearest Neighbour block resampling weather generator with perturbation ...


A System Dynamics Based Integrated Assessment Modelling Of Global-Regional Climate Change: A Model For Analyzing The Behaviour Of The Social-Energy-Economy-Climate System, Mohammad Khaled Akhtar Dec 2011

A System Dynamics Based Integrated Assessment Modelling Of Global-Regional Climate Change: A Model For Analyzing The Behaviour Of The Social-Energy-Economy-Climate System, Mohammad Khaled Akhtar

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

The feedback based integrated assessment model ANEMI (version 2) represents the society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system of the earth and biosphere. The development of the ANEMI model version 2 is based on the system dynamics simulation approach that (a) allows for the understanding and modelling of complex global change and (b) assists in the investigation of possible policy options for mitigating, and/or adopting to changing global conditions within an integrated assessment modelling framework. This thesis presents the ANEMI model version 2 and its nine individual sectors: climate, carbon cycle, land-use, population, food production, hydrologic cycle, water demand, water quality, and energy-economy. Two ...


Uncertainty Estimation Of Extreme Precipitations Under Climate Change: A Non-Parametric Approach, Tarana A. Solaiman May 2011

Uncertainty Estimation Of Extreme Precipitations Under Climate Change: A Non-Parametric Approach, Tarana A. Solaiman

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology at watershed scale incorporates (a) downscaling of global scale climatic variables into local scale hydrologic variables and (b) assessment of future hydrologic extremes. Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCM) are designed to simulate time series of future climate responses accounting for human induced green house gas emissions. The present study addresses the following limitations of climate change impact research: (i) limited availability of observed historical information; (ii) limited research on the detection of changes in hydrologic extremes; and (iii) coarse spatio-temporal resolution of AOGCMs for use at regional or local scale. Downscaled output from ...