Engineering Commons^™

Using System Dynamics To Contribute To Ecological Economics, Takuro Uehara, Yoko Nagase, Wayne Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper demonstrates the usefulness of the system dynamics approach to the development of ecological economics, the study of the interactions between economic systems and ecological systems. We build and analyze an ecological economic model: an extension of a population–resource dynamics model developed by Brander and Taylor and published in American Economic Review in 1998. The focus of the present paper is on the model building and analysis to contribute to theory building rather than eliciting policy implications from the model. Hence, this is an example of model-based theory building using system dynamics. Our analysis sheds light on several problems …

Comparing Discrete Simulation And System Dynamics: Modeling An Anti-Insurgency Influence Operation, Wayne Wakeland, Una E. Medina

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper contrasts the tradeoffs of modeling the same dynamic problem at a micro scale and at a macro scale of analysis: discrete system simulation (DS) versus continuous system simulation or system dynamics (SD). Both are employed to model the influence of entertainment education on terrorist system decay, with implications for field application. Each method optimizes different design, scope/scale, data availability/accuracy, parameter settings, and system sensitivities. Whether the research served by the computer model is applied or theoretical, DS tends to be useful for understand low-level individual unit/step influences on system change over time, whereas SD tends to shine when …

The Case For Thoroughly Testing Complex System Dynamic Models, Wayne Wakeland, Megan Hoarfrost

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

In order to determine whether model testing is as useful as suggested by modeling experts, the full battery of model tests recommended by Forrester, Senge, Sterman, and others was applied retrospectively to a complex previously-published system dynamics model. The time required to carry out each type of test was captured, and the benefits that resulted from applying each test was determined subjectively. The resulting benefit to cost ratios are reported. These ratios suggest that rather than focusing primarily on sensitivity testing, modelers should consider other types of model tests such as extreme condition tests and family member tests. The study …

Metamodeling Aspects Of Model Conceptualization, Wayne W. Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper suggests a technique for improving the conceptualization of models. The key aspect of this technique is to set aside the main model for a period of time during the model conceptualization process and focus on building a "watchdog" submodel. The primary purpose of the watchdog submodel is to assure that the main model remains internally consistent during its operation. In the experience of this author, such a submodel can help to identify model conceptualization errors and to determine if a model is sufficiently "robust" to adequately replicate the behavior of the system being modeled.

This is not a …