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Full-Text Articles in Engineering
Quo Vadis Lakes Azuei And Enriquillo: A Future Outlook For Two Of The Caribbean Basin's Largest Lakes, Mahrokh Moknatian, Michael Piasecki
Quo Vadis Lakes Azuei And Enriquillo: A Future Outlook For Two Of The Caribbean Basin's Largest Lakes, Mahrokh Moknatian, Michael Piasecki
Publications and Research
Lakes Azuei (LA) and Enriquillo (LE) on Hispaniola Island started expanding in 2005 and continued to do so until 2016. After inundating large swaths of arable land, submerging a small community, and threatening to swallow a significant trade route between the Dominican Republic and Haiti; worries persisted at how far this seemingly unstoppable expansion would go. The paper outlines the approach to a look forward to answer this question vis-à-vis climate change scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It uses numerical representations of the two lakes, and it examines how the lakes might evolve, deploying three …
Exploring The Evolution Of Drought Characteristics In Balochistan, Pakistan, Shoaib Jamro, Falak Naz Channa, Ghulam Hussain Dars, Kamran Ansari, Nir Krakauer
Exploring The Evolution Of Drought Characteristics In Balochistan, Pakistan, Shoaib Jamro, Falak Naz Channa, Ghulam Hussain Dars, Kamran Ansari, Nir Krakauer
Publications and Research
In the wake of a rapidly changing climate, droughts have intensified, in both duration and severity, across the globe. The Germanwatch long-term Climate Risk Index ranks Pakistan among the top 10 countries most affected by the adverse effects of climate change. Within Pakistan, the province of Balochistan is among the most vulnerable regions due to recurring prolonged droughts, erratic precipitation patterns, and dependence on agriculture and livestock for survival. This study aims to explore how the characteristics of droughts have evolved in the region from 1902–2015 using 3-month and 12-month timescales of a popular drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration …
Precipitation Trends Over The Indus Basin, Nir Krakauer, Tarendra Lakhankar, Ghulam Hussain Dars
Precipitation Trends Over The Indus Basin, Nir Krakauer, Tarendra Lakhankar, Ghulam Hussain Dars
Publications and Research
A large population relies on water input to the Indus basin, yet basinwide precipitation amounts and trends are not well quantified. Gridded precipitation data sets covering different time periods and based on either station observations, satellite remote sensing, or reanalysis were compared with available station observations and analyzed for basinwide precipitation trends. Compared to observations, some data sets tended to greatly underestimate precipitation, while others overestimate it. Additionally, the discrepancies between data set and station precipitation showed significant time trends in many cases, suggesting that the precipitation trends of those data sets were not consistent with station data. Among the …
Trends In Drought Over The Northeast United States, Nir Y. Krakauer, Tarendra Lakhankar, Damien Hudson
Trends In Drought Over The Northeast United States, Nir Y. Krakauer, Tarendra Lakhankar, Damien Hudson
Publications and Research
The Northeast United States is a generally wet region that has had substantial increases in mean precipitation over the past decades, but also experiences damaging droughts. We evaluated drought frequency, intensity, and duration trends in the region over the period 1901–2015. We used a dataset of Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), a measure of water balance based on meteorology that is computed at multiple timescales. It was found that the frequency of droughts decreased over this period, but their average intensity and duration did not show consistent changes. There was an increase in mean SPEI, indicating mostly wetter conditions, but …
Ensemble Forecasts: Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasts Based On A Model Ensemble, Hannah Aizenman, Michael D. Grossberg, Nir Y. Krakauer, Irina Gladkova
Ensemble Forecasts: Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasts Based On A Model Ensemble, Hannah Aizenman, Michael D. Grossberg, Nir Y. Krakauer, Irina Gladkova
Publications and Research
Ensembles of general circulation model (GCM) integrations yield predictions for meteorological conditions in future months. Such predictions have implicit uncertainty resulting from model structure, parameter uncertainty, and fundamental randomness in the physical system. In this work, we build probabilistic models for long-term forecasts that include the GCM ensemble values as inputs but incorporate statistical correction of GCM biases and different treatments of uncertainty. Specifically, we present, and evaluate against observations, several versions of a probabilistic forecast for gridded air temperature 1 month ahead based on ensemble members of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 …
National Livestock Policy Of Nepal: Needs And Opportunities, Upendra B. Pradhanang, Soni M. Pradhanang, Arhan Sthapit, Nir Y. Krakauer, Ajay K. Jha, Tarendra Lakhankar
National Livestock Policy Of Nepal: Needs And Opportunities, Upendra B. Pradhanang, Soni M. Pradhanang, Arhan Sthapit, Nir Y. Krakauer, Ajay K. Jha, Tarendra Lakhankar
Publications and Research
This paper describes Nepal’s national livestock policies and considers how they can be improved to help meet the pressing national challenges of economic development, equity, poverty alleviation, gender mainstreaming, inclusion of marginalized and underprivileged communities, and climate vulnerability. Nepal is in the process of transforming its government from a unitary system to a federal democratic structure through the new constitution expected by 2015, offering the opportunity to bring a new set of priorities and stakeholders to policymaking. Nepal’s livestock subsector comes most directly within the purview of the National Agricultural Policy 2004, Agro-Business Policy, 2006 and Agricultural Sectoral Operating Policies …