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Full-Text Articles in Engineering
Improving Time To Market Forecasts: A Comparison Of Two Technology Forecasting Techniques For Predicting U.S. Fighter Jet Introductions From 1944 To 1982, Lane Inman, Timothy R. Anderson, Robert Harmon
Improving Time To Market Forecasts: A Comparison Of Two Technology Forecasting Techniques For Predicting U.S. Fighter Jet Introductions From 1944 To 1982, Lane Inman, Timothy R. Anderson, Robert Harmon
Timothy R. Anderson
Since its origin in 2001, technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) has been tested with a number of applications. This paper uses a previously published technology forecast comparison of U.S. fighter jets between the years 1944 and 1982 to compare TFDEA to basic regression. Both techniques use aircraft introduced between 1944 and 1960 to predict the first flights of those fighters introduced between 1960 and 1982. TFDEA was found to better predict the first flight dates than the forecast using regression. These results indicate that TFDEA may be a powerful new technique for predicting complex technological trends and time …
The Case For Thoroughly Testing Complex System Dynamic Models
The Case For Thoroughly Testing Complex System Dynamic Models
Wayne W. Wakeland
In order to determine whether model testing is as useful as suggested by modeling experts, the full battery of model tests recommended by Forrester, Senge, Sterman, and others was applied retrospectively to a complex previously-published system dynamics model. The time required to carry out each type of test was captured, and the benefits that resulted from applying each test was determined subjectively. The resulting benefit to cost ratios are reported. These ratios suggest that rather than focusing primarily on sensitivity testing, modelers should consider other types of model tests such as extreme condition tests and family member tests. The study …