Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods Commons^™

Forecasting With A Real-Time Data Set For Macroeconomists, Tom Stark, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

This paper discusses how forecasts are affected by the use of real-time data rather than latest-available data. The key issue is this: in the literature on developing forecasting models, new models are put together based on the results they yield using the data set available to the model’s developer. But those are not the data that were available to a forecaster in real time.

How much difference does the vintage of the data make for such forecasts? We explore this issue with a variety of exercises designed to answer this question. In particular, we find that the use of real-time …

Attribute-Based Differentiation Of Alternatives, Jeffrey Keisler

Management Science and Information Systems Faculty Publication Series

An intermediate step is introduced to the decision dialogue process for decision analysis. Alternatives are refined after they have been generated within a strategy table but before they are subject to more detailed evaluation. Two or more judges create a subjective mapping from alternatives to attributes that will later be mapped to criteria. In strategy tables, each of the alternative strategies consists of a coherent set of choices made across several decisions that are to be coordinated. These strategic alternatives are modified so as to increase their differentiation in the attribute space, rather than in the decision space alone. When …

Attribute-Based Differentiation Of Alternatives, Jeffrey Keisler

Jeffrey Keisler

An intermediate step is introduced to the decision dialogue process for decision analysis. Alternatives are refined after they have been generated within a strategy table but before they are subject to more detailed evaluation. Two or more judges create a subjective mapping from alternatives to attributes that will later be mapped to criteria. In strategy tables, each of the alternative strategies consists of a coherent set of choices made across several decisions that are to be coordinated. These strategic alternatives are modified so as to increase their differentiation in the attribute space, rather than in the decision space alone. When …

Intelligent Data Mining Using Kernel Functions And Information Criteria, Zhenqiu Liu

Doctoral Dissertations

Radial Basis Function (RBF) Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines (SVM) are two powerful kernel related intelligent data mining techniques. The current major problems with these methods are over-fitting and the existence of too many free parameters. The way to select the parameters can directly affect the generalization performance(test error) of theses models. Current practice in how to choose the model parameters is an art, rather than a science in this research area. Often, some parameters are predetermined, or randomly chosen. Other parameters are selected through repeated experiments that are time consuming, costly, and computationally very intensive. In this dissertation, …

Use Of Exemplar Surveys To Reveal Implicit Types Of Intelligence, Delroy L. Paulhus, Paul Wehr, Peter D. Harms, David I. Strasser

Leadership Institute: Faculty Publications

Implicit theories of intelligence were investigated via surveys of exemplars of intelligence. Study 1 was a four-sample survey of famous exemplars. These diverse samples reported a similar set of popular exemplars, which clustered into five groups. These groups represented five types of intelligence: scientific, artistic, entrepreneurial, communicative, and moral intelligence. In Study 2, the minimal overlap of intelligence exemplars with those of fame, creativity, and wisdom refuted the possibility that exemplar reports are indiscriminate or solely a result of availability. In Study 3, knowledgeable judges rated the similarity of 50 famous persons to exemplars representing each type of intelligence. All …

On Uncertainty, Ambiguity, And Complexity In Project Management, Michael T. Pich, Christoph H. Loch, Arnoud De Meyer

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This article develops a model of a project as a payoff function that depends on the state of the world and the choice of a sequence of actions. A causal mapping, which may be incompletely known by the project team, represents the impact of possible actions on the states of the world. An underlying probability space represents available information about the state of the world. Interactions among actions and states of the world determine the complexity of the payoff function. Activities are endogenous, in that they are the result of a policy that maximizes the expected project payoff.

A key …

Microscopic Chaos And Gaussian Diffusion Processes, L. Y. Chew, Christopher Ting

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this paper, we construct and analyze a prototypical model of microscopic chaos. In particular, we extend the results of Beck and Shimizu to the case where the microscopic time scale r is no longer small. The upshot is that a non-Ornstein-Uhlenbeck deterministic process can generate a Gaussian diffusion process.

A Risk/Cost Framework For Logistics Policy Evaluation: Hazardous Waste Management, Kimberly Hollister

Department of Information Management and Business Analytics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

The management of hazardous waste disposal operations is extremely complex involving a multitude of environmental, engineering, economic, social and political concerns. This article proposes a framework to assist policy makers in the evaluation of logistic policies. A spatial general equilibrium based policy evaluation model is developed to calculate risk, cost, and risk equity tradeoff curves. This framework provides policy makers a tool with which they can relate resulting logistics patterns and their associated risk, cost, and equity attributes to original policy goals.

Job Satisfaction As Related To Safe Performance: A Case For A Manufacturing Firm, Chong W. Kim, Marjorie L. Mcinerney, Robert P. Alexander

Management Faculty Research

Many companies have made significant improvements in safety records, but have eventually reached a plateau. This article examines employee safety performance in regards to their job satisfaction and its implications to managers for improving employees safety performance through job redesign.

Sampling Concepts, Paul Boyd, Ph.D.

MBA Faculty Conference Papers & Journal Articles

The usefulness of any research is dependent upon how well the group studied represents the group about which decisions are to be made or conclusions drawn. That is, it depends upon how well the sample reflects relevant characteristics of the population. When it is possible to study every member of that group there is no problem, for on these occasions we can easily calculate the exact attribute (parameter) of interest for our population.

For example, if we were interested in determining the average number of gallons of gasoline sold to customers at our service station yesterday, we …

Managing Information Technology Investment Risk: A Real Options Perspective, Michel Benaroch

Management - All Scholarship

Past information systems research on real options has focused mainly on evaluating information technology (IT) investments that embed a single, a-priori known option. However, since real options are not inherent in any IT investment, they usually must be planned and intentionally embedded in a target IT investment in order to control various investment-specific risks, just like financial risk management uses carefully chosen options to actively manage investment risks. Moreover, when an IT investment involves multiple risks, there could be numerous ways to reconfigure the investment using different series of cascading (compound) options. In this light, we present an approach for …

Dynamic Funding And Investment Strategy For Defined Benefit Pension Schemes: A Model Incorporating Asset-Liability Matching Criteria, Shih-Chieh Chang, Cheng-Hsien Tsai, Chia-Jung Tien, Chang-Ye Tu

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

This paper studies the dynamic funding policy and investment strategy for defined benefit pension plans using one of the most comprehensive dynamic pension models to date. The model includes three investable assets: one risk free and two risky. The optimal plan decisions are formulated as a stochastic control problem that is solved using dynamic programming. The objective function uses performance measures to take into account the stability and solvency of the plan. The model is then applied to a Taiwanese pension.

Unearned Premiums And Deferred Policy Acquisition Expenses In Automobile Extended Warranty Insurance, Joseph Cheng

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

A prorata formula is commonly used to calculate unearned premium reserves in property-casualty insurance. I believe, however, that an exposure-adjusted formula is more appropriate in automobile extended warranties. This paper describes the exposure-adjusted approach to calculate the unearned premium reserves of an automobile extended warranty insurance program, to test the adequacy of the calculated reserves, and to determine the allowable deferred policy acquisition expenses from an insurance company's perspective.

Further Remarks On Risk Sources Measuring: The Case Of A Life Annuity Portfolio, Mariarosaria Coppola, Emilia Di Lorenzo, Marilena Sibillo

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

The paper considers a model that allows the actuary to measure the riskiness connected to the randomness of projected mortality tables in evaluating a portfolio of life annuities, obtaining a measure to reflect the risk associated with the randomness of the projection. The coherence of the risk parameters with the specific nature of the considered risk sources is also discussed. Numerical examples illustrate the results, showing the importance of the risk components in terms of the number of policies and comparing measure tools obtained by means of two procedures.

Improving Mortality: A Rule Of Thumb And Regulatory Tool, John H. Pollard

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

We develop a simple exact formula for determining cohort life expectancies under constant continuous uniform improvement in mortality using only a cross-sectional (period) Gompertz life table for the lives concerned and a simple approximation applicable to all life tables. The present values of annuities for such lives can be determined simply and accurately across the whole age span.

A Note On The Parallelogram Method For Computing The On-Level Premium, David P.M. Scollnik, Wai Man Sara Lau

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

This paper discusses the differences appearing in the descriptions of the parallelogram method for the determination of earned premium at current rate levels given by McClenahan (1996) and Brown and Gottlieb (2001). It observes that the former is consistent with the method of extending exposures while the latter is not. An illustration is provided. This paper also discusses two other approaches to the determination of the earned premium.

Model Risks And Surplus Management Under A Stochastic Interest Rate Process, Jennifer L. Wang, Rachel J. Huang

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

This paper uses simulations to explore the effects of incorrectly identifying the underlying interest rate process on assets, liabilities, and surplus levels. We show that mismodeling the interest rate (called model risk) could not only lead to a misstatement of the company's surplus, but could also cause a mismatch between the company's assets and liabilities. Our simulations demonstrate that three aspects of interest rates affect model risk: (i) volatility, (ii) level of long-term interest rate, and (iii) the speed at which the drift rate adjusts. We conclude that asset-liability managers should not ignore the impact of the model risks, regardless …

Pricing And Product Mix Optimization In Freight Transportation, Michael F. Gorman

MIS/OM/DS Faculty Publications

We propose improved pricing and market mix can improve the profitability of the freight transportation provider through the reduction of equipment repositioning costs. We hypothesize that because of complexities surrounding pricing and equipment repositioning costing, existing pricing strategies in freight transportation fail to fully consider these costs. We test this hypothesis in an applied setting in which Monte Carlo simulation captures the stochasticity of market conditions inherent in the problem. We use a heuristic to improve the nondifferentiable, discontinuous objective function.

Our results from test cases show with high confidence that current prices are not optimal, as indicated by a …

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 10, 2002, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

ARTICLES

Communicating Effectively with Words, Numbers, and Pictures: Drawing on Experience • Karolina Duklan and Michael A. Martin

Unearned Premiums and Deferred Policy Acquisition Expenses in Automobile Extended Warranty Insurance • Joseph Cheng

Can Utility Maximization Models Assist With Retirement Planning? • Zaki Khorasanee

Dynamic Funding and Investment Strategy for Defined Benefit Pension Schemes: A Model Incorporating Asset-Liability Matching Criteria • Shih-Chieh Chang, Cheng-Hsien Tsai, Chia-Jung Tien, and Chang- Ye Tu

Model Risk and Surplus Management Under a Stochastic Interest Rate Process •Jennifer L. Wang and Rachel J. Huang

Some Comments on the Pricing of an Exotic Excess of …

Journal Of Actuarial Practice Volume 10 (2002) -- Contents And Masthead

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

Contents

Editorial Policy: Topics suitable for this journal include AIDS, annuity products, asset-liability matching, cash-flow testing, casualty rate making, credibility theory, credit insurance, disability insurance, expense analysis, experience studies, FASB issues, financial reporting, group insurance, health insurance, individual risk taking, insurance regulations, international issues, investments, liability insurance, loss reserves, marketing, pensions, pricing issues, product development, reinsurance, reserving issues, risk-based capital, risk theory, social insurance, solvency issues, taxation, valuation issues, and workers' compensation

Review Process

Editor - Colin Ramsay, University of Nebraska

Associate Editors: Robert Brown, University of Waterloo ○ Cecil Bykerk, Mutual of Omaha ○ Ruy Cardoso, …

Can Utility-Maximization Models Assist With Retirement Planning?, Zaki Khorasanee

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

Utility-maximization models for optimizing portfolio choices can be subdivided into two classes: those based on maximizing the expected utility of lifetime consumption and those based on maximizing the expected utility of retirement wealth. It is argued that the first type of model, which optimizes both saving and investment decisions, is difficult to apply in practice because of inadequate (or unreliable) information about individual preferences. Although the second type of model only optimizes investment decisions, it is of greater practical value because fewer data on individual preferences are required. The second type of model is used to derive formulae for the …

Communicating Effectively With Words, Numbers, And Pictures: Drawing On Experience, Karolina Duklan, Michael A. Martin

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

In this paper, we discuss techniques for developing effective communication skills, focusing in particular on technical writing, the use of graphics, and presentation. The key principles of effective communication that we propose to actuaries are as follows:

• Identify your audience and consider their needs and abilities;

• Focus on substantive content;

• Choose appropriate communication tools;

• Use language that is simple, concrete, and familiar;

• Integrate text, numbers, and graphics;

• Respond to information complexity creatively.

We focus in particular on the use of graphics as a communications tool as they are an efficient and potentially highly effective …

Modeling Size-Of-Loss Distributions For Exact Data In Winbugs, David P.M. Scollnik

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

This paper discusses how the statistical software WinBUGS can be used to implement a Bayesian analysis of several popular severity models applied to exact size-of-Ioss data. The particular models targeted are the gamma, inverse gamma, loggamma, lognormal, (two-parameter) Pareto, inverse (two-parameter) Pareto, Weibull, and inverse Weibull distributions. It is possible to implement additional size-of-Ioss models (including those for truncated data) using methods analogous to those described herein.

Some Comments On The Pricing Of An Exotic Excess Of Loss Treaty, Jean-Francois Walhin

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

This paper uses a multivariate analog of Panjer's algorithm to develop a method for pricing a complex excess of loss treaty. The treaty is such that some layers inure to the benefit of other layers. The structure of this treaty is discussed. Numerical examples are provided.

Scale-Invariant Behavior In A Spatial Game Of Prisoners’ Dilemma, Yun Fong Lim, Kan Chen, Ciriyam Jayaprakash

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

A spatially extended version of the game of prisoner’s dilemma, originally proposed by Nowak and May, is modified to include stochastic updating and found to exhibit scale-invariant behavior. Two critical regimes with different scaling behaviors are found; the corresponding exponents have been determined numerically. Spatially, the critical states are characterized by the existence of delicately balanced networks of defectors separating domains of cooperators; temporally, the evolution of the critical states following local perturbations is characterized by avalanches of various magnitudes, which cause restructuring of the networks of defectors on all scales.

Lmx And Subordinate Performance: The Moderating Effects Of Task Characteristics, Kenneth Dunegan, Mary Uhl-Bien, Dennis Duchon

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

Role conflict, role ambiguity, and intrinsic task satisfaction are found to moderate the relationship between leader–member exchange (LMX) and subordinate performance. Data from a field study of 146 supervisor–subordinate dyads indicate low conflict, high ambiguity, and high intrinsic satisfaction enhance the link between LMX and performance. Neutralizing effects are found when ambiguity and intrinsic satisfaction are low. High conflict appears to have a constraining effect, whereby the connection between LMX and performance is reduced but not neutralized. Results from the study call attention to the theoretical and practical benefits of examining the LMX/performance link from a contingency perspective, and offer …

What A Mess! Participation As A Simple Managerial Rule To “Complexify” Organizations, Donde Ashmos Plowman, Dennis Duchon, Reuben R. Mcdaniel Jr., John W. Huonker

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

This paper adopts a view of organizations as complex adaptive systems and makes a case for making organizations more complex internally through the use of a fairly simple managerial rule—using participative decision making. Participation in decision making enhances connectivity in organizations, which in turn, gives the organization the opportunity to self-organize and co-evolve in more effective ways than when there is minimal connectivity (i.e., autocracy). The paper uses a specific body of research to support the arguments about why participation can benefit the practice of management in modern organizations.

The Need For And Meaning Of Positive Organizational Behavior, Fred Luthans

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

This essay draws from the emerging positive psychology movement and the author’s recent articles on the need for and meaning of a positive approach to organizational behavior. Specifically, the argument is made that at this time, the OB field needs a proactive, positive approach emphasizing strengths, rather than continuing in the downward spiral of negativity trying to fix weaknesses. However, to avoid the surface positivity represented by the non-sustainable best-sellers, the case is made for positive organizational behavior (POB) to take advantage of the OB field’s strength of being theory and research driven. Additional criteria for this version of POB …

Impact Of Transformational Leadership On Follower Development And Performance: A Field Experiment, Taly Dvir, Dov Eden, Bruce Avolio, Boas Shamir

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

In a longitudinal, randomized field experiment, we tested the impact of transformational leadership, enhanced hy training, on follower development and performance. Experimental group leaders received transformational leadership training, and control group leaders, eclectic leadership training. The sample included 54 military leaders, their 90 direct followers, and 724 indirect followers. Results indicated the leaders in the experimental group had a more positive impact on direct followers' development and on indirect followers' performance than did the leaders in the control group.

What Do Family Mediators Do? A Look At Practices And Models, Sherrill W. Hayes

Sherrill W. Hayes

No abstract provided.